Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

And what should we expect from this?

Doesn't look good.  

[dragonvslinux]

Current Weekly outlook: TD Sequential 9 currently up for grabs this week, haven't seen one of these since April 2019 and July 2018.
Full moon didn't do sh*t to decide, hoping this week can define a direction for the following weeks/months.
Looking at three potential scenarios long-term, as shown by A (bullish TD 9), B (wedge breakdown) and C ("bullish TD 9).

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
..


Source: TradingView, October 20th 2019

Next week looks set for a bullish TD Sequential 9 on the Weekly chart that hasn't been seen since July 2018. Back then this led to a 40% increase in the price of Bitcoin followed by 4 months of consolidation. This scenario is labeled "A". Extrapolation C is the inverse of the "bearish" TD 9 in April 2019 that led to a continuation of the bull trend. Hence, C is labeled as the "bullish" TD 9 but would be the most bearish scenario. Scenario B is the extrapolation of the 2018 wedge breakdown, as documented in Part 1 of the Bitcoin repeating history series.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.

Own work: dragononcrypto

I am not sure if I understand the overall proposition, of the above.

Shouldn't three possible scenarios be something more closely resembling: 1) Up 2) down or 3) flat?

How could you have proposed three possible scenarios that are: 1) Up 2) down or 3) up?   Confusioning!!!

Updated the quote, highlighted the relevant scenario. The "bearish" TD 9 in April was bullish af basically, hence if the opposite occurred the "bullish" TD 9 could be bearish af.
Obviously anything could happen, like another 8 different scenarios that somewhat overlap. I just like my comparisons to see that this current price movement isn't that unique at all.
Hope that it explains it, not very good at explaining these things. Only making drawings really.
This wasn't meant to tell you where the price is going, but potentially why, same as Part 8.

[JayJuanGee]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

And what should we expect from this?

Parabolic breaks almost always lead to

1) Strong retracements back (~85% - 60% if I recall, don't have the stats in front of me atm)

2) Macro trend reversals (think of bitcoin run ups and what happens, like after btc hit $20k)

Yeah, but we have already had our 85% correction down to $3,122.  Remember December 2018?

We are getting another 60% to 85% correction from the $13,880?  That makes hardly any sense.

Now if you were talking about a 60% to 85% correction from some kind of new ATH or something like that, then you might be starting to make some senses.  Perhaps?

In other words, the impression that I am getting is that you are one of those loonies or shills who are spreading disingenuous pie in the sky thinking rather than attempting to grapple with on-the-ground BTC price dynamic realities.

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/cryptosteel/status/1186354407019110400

Want. Not saying where I want it, just that I want it

[whiteboy420]

pray for the ponzi.

shorts closing is the only buy support i see.

[d_eddie]

pray for the ponzi.

shorts closing is the only buy support i see.

You are free to go and screw yourself. Come back in a year or so. Thank you.

[Last of the V8s]

https://fortune.com/2019/10/21/stephen-moore-trump-fed-nomination-cryptocurrency-stablecoin-frax/
eh

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Pffffff still f***ed up on my laptop.....??

[gentlemand]

Pffffff still f***ed up on my laptop.....??

Press ctrl and f5 together and you should be reborn. Or if you're on a Mac it might be shift and reload.

[El duderino_]

Pffffff still f***ed up on my laptop.....??

Press ctrl and f5 together and you should be reborn. Or if you're on a Mac it might be shift and reload.

Thx man, but still the same (when I open in chrome its messed up, at safari its OK)....

[El duderino_]

Pffffff still f***ed up on my laptop.....??

~

Damn, and I was reading this cause I thought there where some new helpful instructions 

[El duderino_]

Saving = buying your future.

Going in debt = selling your future.

Bitcoin = the ultimate savings vehicle.


https://twitter.com/misir_mahmudov/status/1186397152869847040?s=20

[illyiller]

Look at the monthly and hope we are bottoming out until eoy around 7200 with maybe a wick in the 6ks.

Else we gonna visit 200 wma :S

A second visit to the 200-week? I doubt it. That's a pipe dream. $6K will be rock solid, in fact I am starting to wonder if we'll get there at all.

Yeah, but we have already had our 85% correction down to $3,122.  Remember December 2018?

We are getting another 60% to 85% correction from the $13,880?  That makes hardly any sense.

Take another look at the chart. It's inverted.

[jbreher]

Forgot that this production is way more easy on the ears via speakers, compared to headphones. Too much stereo/separation going on for me. Miss my good old mono/stereo switch like i had on almost any analog mixer that i have touched before.

https://spl.audio/studio/phonitor-2/?lang=en Or similar. Frequency dependent crossfeed in a headphone amp is no longer a particularly esoteric feature.

[Hueristic]

I liked Jeff Berwick too, until he got too close to Roger Ver and became an all-out bcasher.

I'm not sure how he hasn't figured out anarchy isn't a real 'thing', although Elwar hasn't either.  If you advocate for the complete abolition of government, all you get is some Liberian cannibal warlord strongman stepping in and taking over, then you have another new government you didn't want that's even worse than the one before.  Anarchy is nothing but an extremely brief, transitory state.  People don't adopt it due to the saying "the devil you know is better than the one you don't."

As for libertardianism, it's not really possible to practice libertardianism in a closed ecosystem, which is what the earth is.  You would need an ever expanding frontier to homestead on to do that.  Without an ever expanding frontier, you have a closed ecosystem, caged deathmatch where people constantly band together to avoid being exploited by the local psychopaths or the ones down the street, then you have government.  An ever expanding frontier does exist - it's called space, which may or may not be accessible by humans.  

Lying Jeff Berwick has been pitching Acapulco as an anarchist utopia for years. I guess it could be, in an ultra-realism kind of way, since it's 100% controlled by homicidal drug cartels.

https://www.wired.com/story/anarchy-bitcoin-and-murder-in-mexico/

The real threat, Berwick believes, comes from outside as the anarchist movement grows both in numbers and spirit. His goal is to “wake people up.” Slavery, debt, war, and poverty, he says, “can all be stopped through getting rid of governments and central banks.”

Yet he suspects the powers that be won’t sit idly by.

“Basically what we’re talking about here is a lot of what Gandhi talked about, even what John Lennon talked about. Or even JFK to an extent,” Berwick says. “Recognize anything similar with all those people? They all got killed. Because when you get this close to changing the world, the system will come after you.”

Well this is the Gods honest truth.

[jbreher]

https://fortune.com/2019/10/21/stephen-moore-trump-fed-nomination-cryptocurrency-stablecoin-frax/
eh

Frax is the 'solution' that George Gilder has recently been shilling.
meh

[jbreher]

I am absolutely DREADING the day when I finally need to replace my 2015 Macbook Pro. It's still quite useful, but recently played a super sad trombone when I discovered it was not capable of driving a 4k Display @ 60hz. Hate the idea of that visual bar on the new lappies,

It grows on ya. I've come to find it quite useful.

Next major upgrade I'm waiting for is the new Mac Pro.

Likewise. As soon as Pro Tools is qualified on macOS 10.15, I be pulling the trigger. (I'm assuming that will be after the new Mac Pro is shipping).

[kurious]

https://fortune.com/2019/10/21/stephen-moore-trump-fed-nomination-cryptocurrency-stablecoin-frax/
eh

Frax is the 'solution' that George Gilder has recently been shilling.
meh

Made me smile, the article quoted him as saying

“If I had been on the Fed, I would like to have seen encouragement for the development of cryptocurrencies like Frax. It can be a check and balance against runaway currencies”

And Frax is to be pegged to the dollar....

[HI-TEC99]

Next major upgrade I'm waiting for is the new Mac Pro.

Likewise. As soon as Pro Tools is qualified on macOS 10.15, I be pulling the trigger. (I'm assuming that will be after the new Mac Pro is shipping).

Do you have to pay for the equivalent of windows kb updates in macOS? I've never used it, but I read somewhere you get charged for updates.

[Majormax]

I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.  

We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880.  Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal.  AmiNOTrite?

Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.

Unless I read your post incorrectly, I was only trying to suggest that your earlier comment seemed to have been suggesting that we are in an August 2017-like scenario currently.  So, I thought that was a wrong assumption.  Again, maybe I misunderstood your earlier post, but that was why I was trying to suggest that it seems that we are still in early 2016 - and I am not even trying to suggest where we go from here... except maybe up in the next few years ... without any real presumption about whether more correction might happen from where we are right now.

Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak.  I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6  months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is)  , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.

On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH.  The danger I was going on and on about in  Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.

On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.