Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I had that crazy (maybe wasn't so crazy) idea in the morning. I was about to put the rest of all my FIAT (6 figures) to BTC but then I didn't. Did another small $200 DCA instead.

Isn't that a sure bet? I mean who doesn't believe here that BTC won't make it above 9k again? Last time I said these lines it was somewhere between 4k and 6k, and I still didn't buy (I mean not all in), and it damn went above 9k indeed.

From 8k to 9k that was %12 sure gains. (It is %6 now)

From time to time, you come out with some real doozies, mindrust.

Based on my round about idea about the total size of your BTC investment, how  the fuck could you have anywhere close to 6 figures of fiat available?  You must be joking, right?  

Note: Remember this is the dollars/BTC thread so our general reference point is dollars, when we are referring to fiat.

Surely, I cannot tell you any kind of exact formula, but before anyone invests in BTC, they should have the rest of their life in order, and have their bigger bills paid and have their cashflow figured out for 6-18 months into the future.  Therefore, when considering what funds that they have available for BTC investment, they have the rest of those matters accounted.

Accordingly, you also said that you largely only buy BTC and HODL, you do not sell, so accounting for your own practices, you have also said that you DCA buy, buy on dips, and sometimes mistakenly FOMO buy.  Anynow, therefore, in the past 3 months, there have been all kinds of ongoing buying opportunities, so in that regard, I would be quite surprised if the value of your fiat should be anywhere close to the 20% or more of the value of your BTC.

Therefore, if you were to have 6 figures of fiat, then you would have $500k of value in BTC (which at current prices would be about 59 BTC  - that is $100k/.2  = $500).  

Something that you are saying is quite off, unless you had been largely contemplating and calculating some kind of gambling (overleveraging) move that would involve taking money from somewhere that you should not be taking it, in order to bet on bitcoin.  That does seem to be what you are contemplating/calculating.  In my thinking, those kinds of moves tend to be desperation moves, and not necessary in bitcoin, even if there could be some decent probabilities that they could pay off quite handsomely - even though personally, I rarely play those kinds of gambling approaches.**

**I will concede that from time to time (and historically), I have used zero interest credit card promotional moneys to increase my cashflow, and thereby buying bitcoin with a decent portion of that increased cashflow funds, so I am not completely immuned to a certain amount of leveraging/gambling that could have ended up going sour on me.

For me if someone has about 59btc (500K value) and 100K cash, going all the way and investing the rest of the cash in btc is a reckless move even when I think that btc is likely to appreciate.

Let's just clarify that this hypothetical is not about mindrust, because mindrust has subsequently clarified (somewhat) that his ratios are quite different than the above scenario - and I had gotten confused in considering that the only way that mindrust would have reasonably had $100k or more in cash would be if he had $500k in BTC... which mindrust had shown me to be wrong in that speculation....

So in some sense, I am all mixed up about what would be reasonable because he seems to be describing a whole different set of circumstances in which a person might chose to invest only in BTC and fiat and not have any other significant or meaningful investments.  Sure, such a strategy could be made to be reasonable, but I had kind of presumed that mindrust had other investments (and seems to be that I was mostly wrong).  By the way, mindrust seems to be more in the territory of $60k value in BTC and $100k+ value in cash, so surely his situation seems to be a bit more skewed in favor of cash, currently...

I guess ultimately each guy (or perhaps gal) is going to have to figure out his/her balance, and in a hypothetical situation of $500k in BTC and $100k in cash we might want to get an approximate idea of the cost basis of the BTC in order to figure out a strategy for the $100k that is in cash.  In any event, when we are referring to these kinds of investible cash reserves, I am kind of assuming that there is other cash that is available to cover 6 to 18 months worth of expenses (including possible emergencies), yet just knowing how much a guy has right at this time, does not give us enough information, unless we presume that he has his 6 to 18 months covered which might end up presuming some kind of assurances of how much cash flow is ensured to be coming in during that time (and some people vary more than others in regards to how certain is their cashflow and whether they would have back-up cashflow in case their primary cashflow sources were to dry up or somehow get interfered with).

I also have no real problems with play it by ear strategies.  So let's say that a certain amount of the extra cash is set for buying on dips (even with buy orders set), and another part of the cash has been scheduled into DCA projections over the next several months, there also can be circumstances in which another $3k comes into the picture because of some additional cash flow.  Then in those circumstances, if all the other monies are accounted for, I would thereby immediately plug the additional $3k into my existing strategy that has three parts a) buying on dips, b) DCA and c) immediate buying.  I personally would do equal thirds for each of those branches of my strategy.

So, for me, anytime that I am rethinking the amount of cash that I have available and reallocating that cash, I am similar in my thinking as you, Biodom, I never would employ a strategy that immediately invests the money, but instead I divide the money into my system, in which only a third of the money, at most would end up getting invested immediately and the rest is scheduled based on other system that I outline for myself falling into dips and DCA.

Why? Because in this scenario 100K would increase your stash "only" 20% while eliminating any hint of diversification.
By no means I suggest investing the rest in alts.

Possibly  we agree, Biodom.  I don't really consider investing in alts to be diversification because they are mostly in the same asset class as bitcoin, and therefore it is just adding risk upon your bitcoin investment to invest into the same area.  I know that some people want to consider alts differently, so that is their choice, but they should be attempting to recognize that the there is not a BIG difference from bitcoin, and therefore would not justify any kind of high percentage into them (10% at most in my thinking even though I could still accept more risky and crazy allocations that might go as high as 30% into such alts (aka shitcoins))

Keep cash (in $$). I don't know your geo location, so cannot rec. other currency or real estate. Some gold might be OK too, maybe split half and half (half cash half gold). I used to love stocks, reduced them lately.
Honestly, everything is so complicated right now, it is difficult to make the right decision (apart from bitcoin, which is solid).

I agree that we are living in a bit of a dilemma, these days, and there are so many people who have written off traditional investments, so sometimes it can be hard to relate to that.  I do believe that bitcoin is accomplishing a lot of the same things as gold, but yeah it is possible to have a portion of value into gold, traditional stocks and realestate, like you said.  Ultimately, we likely have confidence that bitcoin is the better of the investments, even though risky, which likely causes us to put a lot less into any of those traditional investments that are of a different category from bitcoin.

Another dynamic that I understand is that when anyone is first starting to invest.  Let's say that they are in their early 20s or even in their late teens, and they are just leaving home, so they do not have a lot of money to invest.  I understand that in those circumstances, they might not diversify very much because they hardly have anything that they are working with. So they may start out by investing in one asset at a time and building their wealth and then adding assets after their wealth has crossed certain thresholds, such as going over $20k  or $50k or $100k.  Each person might figure out differing triggering levels that would cause them to make their diversification decision and take action upon their diversification decision and plan at their preset thresholds (which of course they can tweak those thresholds too, based on changing life circumstances and perhaps even changing views).

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[JayJuanGee]

I don't think this guy even comes close to warranting his own day.

He only just showed back up after how many years forsaking us?

I forsake you guys all the time, where's my own day?

Back in the good ole days, having your own day was like a blemish on your records.  A character flaw. Like the scarlet letter. 

Now-a-days, having your own day is almost like a reward.  A perk.  An entitlement.

My have times changed in these here parts!!!

[Paashaas]

$350,000 a year salary is not ''enough'' to be part of the middle class in expensive U.S cities.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-budget-shows-how-a-350000-salary-barely-qualifies-as-middle-class-2019-09-11?link=sfmw_tw

[Biodom]

I don't think this guy even comes close to warranting his own day.

He only just showed back up after how many years forsaking us?

"In your eyes forsaken me
In your thoughts forsaken me
In your heart forsaken, me oh..."

SOAD

[bitserve]

I don't think this guy even comes close to warranting his own day.

He only just showed back up after how many years forsaking us?

I forsake you guys all the time, where's my own day?

Not yet. Maybe we could do a klingdotconifer celebration day when Bitcoin reaches 80x from 4K? At $320K... I'm in.


P.S.: Other than that you would need to 80x leverage your current levels of verbosity or assholness to even qualify.

[bitserve]

$350,000 a year salary is not ''enough'' to be part of the middle class in expensive U.S cities.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-budget-shows-how-a-350000-salary-barely-qualifies-as-middle-class-2019-09-11?link=sfmw_tw

Every time I see that sheet my feelings get confused. I don't know if I should feel miserably poor or just the contrary. It also remembers me to the movie "In Time".

[Biodom]

$350,000 a year salary is not ''enough'' to be part of the middle class in expensive U.S cities.

https://i.imgur.com/DxzYube.png

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-budget-shows-how-a-350000-salary-barely-qualifies-as-middle-class-2019-09-11?link=sfmw_tw

I LOLed at $1560 insurance on a $1.8mil house.
bullsheeeet....made me think the rest is made up as well.
I am sure that they can make it on 200-250K/year (in those cities).

[Hueristic]

Back in the good ole days, having your own day was like a blemish on your records.  A character flaw. Like the scarlet letter.  

Now-a-days, having your own day is almost like a reward.  A perk.  An entitlement.

My have times changed in these here parts!!!

Yeah, just wait till tomorrow so i can tell you what I really think.

Is this the largest thread in the forum? Going back to 2013 and being over 25,000 pages long.

 

Forget this forum; I think this is the longest thread on the internet.

This could be true.

Forget this forum; I think this is the longest thread on the internet.

It's a big un but there are bigger. Like this one - https://www.gaiaonline.com/forum/chatterbox/mpt-the-official-million-page-thread-original/t.1488895/

I can't imagine there are all that many that are larger. It's likely many of the other competitors are gibberish rather than stunningly erudite like this one.

Shit i clicked it...

Hah

Please fill in the captcha to continue browsing

Not gonna do it! Saved.

[Fatman3001]

Hehe, I called on the weaker minded and there's a barrage of 16 posts from Arriemoller.

Icygreen seems to be going about this in a more constructive way. Even got infofronts support.

impressive

[VB1001]

Stock-to-Flow Model

The stock-to-flow line on this chart incorporates a 365-day average into the model to smooth out the changes caused in the market by the halving events.

In addition to the main stock-to-flow chart, I have created a divergence chart (lower section of the chart) which shows the difference between price and stock-to-flow. When price moves above stock-to-flow (divergence line turns from green to red), thereby allowing us to easily see how price interacts with stock-to-flow through market cycles over time.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

Same as PlanB but with added divergence graph.

[Hueristic]

I think this is accurate for many

HAH, I only recognize one of those and know i don't want to look for the rest! Weird goatSe is missing...damn kids these days.

https://twitter.com/imura_industry/status/1178264533258788864

Zig Zag Smart Phone Gun V2.0 (3D Print Kit Gun)
This gun violates American NFA, but can fire .22LR 3shots
It is very important to record and accumulate technology even if manufacturing is illegal at this time

no link to .STL file

fail

I'd probably just go make my own boom stick... one shot only, essentially a contact weapon. I forgot the other name for it, people use it to hunt alligators or sharks. Shark stick? It's a bullet at the end of a stick. You poke the stick and it goes boom.

[mindrust]

So in some sense, I am all mixed up about what would be reasonable because he seems to be describing a whole different set of circumstances in which a person might chose to invest only in BTC and fiat and not have any other significant or meaningful investments.  Sure, such a strategy could be made to be reasonable, but I had kind of presumed that mindrust had other investments (and seems to be that I was mostly wrong).  By the way, mindrust seems to be more in the territory of $60k value in BTC and $100k+ value in cash, so surely his situation seems to be a bit more skewed in favor of cash, currently...

I don't know any other investment.

I could have sent $30-50k to the US stock markets but I don't like to read all those regulations about the taxes&stock markets and shit and I am pretty sure this isn't the right time to buy their bags neither. Nope.

Yes, other than a small percentage of gold, I am %100 FIAT&Bitcoin. With $100k in hand It is only enough to buy a half ass decent flat and I am not sure if that's what I want now. I'd rather stay in cash and wait for a crash where and whenever it happens; crypto, the stock markets, gold. (I don't know anything else investment-wise, besides RE) I'll just buy the dip. When I reach $1m, Then I may reconsider of making RE investments. It makes more sense that way.

I DCA into BTC every week/month whenever I can just like I do to FIAT. For me FIAT is kinda investment too because I am buying (mostly) the US-made FIAT with my own national FIAT. FIAT is FIAT in the end and all are shit but I believe the US made FIAT is the last one to go down the toilet after everything else. (EUR is the second best I guess)

For now Bitcoin is the only game I play.

edit: $81xx, cheap coins are arriving!  

[realr0ach]

Banks are investing to crypto much more you think


https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1178965098636939265?s=20

Wait till all these worthless paper shufflers and Jew moneychangers realize the vast majority of the population is not interested in any Chinese social credit score or cashless society slavery systems and they lose all their money because there is no greater fool to buy digital shitcoins from them.  Both the public and even central banks themselves will all be in metals and not digital shitcoin scams.  

Even "Icygreen" mentioned a few pages back how his boomer relatives no longer trust banks and are withdrawing money and placing it not in digital shitcoins but....drumroll...real world objects like land.  For all the shitcoin scammers in this thread, let me explain to you how the real world works.  In the real world, you have all these boomers that have worked for 40-50 years to create some type of savings and they have ZERO interest in gambling with it by placing it in an imaginary digital Ponzi scam.  The only three targets for that money is real estate, physical metals, and stocks, but most are wising up to the stock bubble and real estate bubbles, so that leaves...

[bitcoinPsycho]

[bucciarati]

$350,000 a year salary is not ''enough'' to be part of the middle class in expensive U.S cities.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-budget-shows-how-a-350000-salary-barely-qualifies-as-middle-class-2019-09-11?link=sfmw_tw

mmm.. real numbers are little low ...

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/in/New-York

this is the list of first 10 cities average salary

1.   San Francisco, CA, United States      7,020.36 $
2.   Zurich, Switzerland      6,174.45 $
3.   Basel, Switzerland      5,499.06 $
4.   Washington, DC, United States      5,410.25 $
5.   Seattle, WA, United States      5,355.83 $
6.   Bern, Switzerland      5,292.33 $
7.   Geneva, Switzerland      5,276.44 $
8.   Lausanne, Switzerland      5,050.32 $
9.   New York, NY, United States      4,952.01 $
10.   Dallas, TX, United States      4,854.18 $

[fillippone]

Given the hugely successful launch of Bakkt this news is almost no news:


CME Exec: No Plans for Physically Settled BTC Contracts Currently

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group has no current plans to launch physically settled Bitcoin (BTC) contracts, a senior executive said.

Tim McCourt, global head of equity index and alternative investment products at CME Group, told MarketsMedia on Oct. 1 that all new contracts or products are driven by customer demand.

This makes sense from a business perspective.
They have a fully functional cash -settle product. There's no demand for the moment for a physically settled one, for the moment. They have the technology to be close followers in case demand builds up.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good morning gentlemen!

$50 worth of BTC for the first person to successfully post a Vegeta meme when we cross $9,000 again (Bitstamp)

I’m bored, thought it’d be cool to keep people on their toes and play a game

Edit - Please post screenshot of Bitstamp price to prove as my good friend fillippone says ‘trespassing of $9,000’

[El duderino_]

$350,000 a year salary is not ''enough'' to be part of the middle class in expensive U.S cities.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-budget-shows-how-a-350000-salary-barely-qualifies-as-middle-class-2019-09-11?link=sfmw_tw

I have to disagree on this one... 350K net income would be a nice life for a bigger % of the people living there .....

[fillippone]

Good morning gentlemen!

$50 worth of BTC for the first person to successfully post a Vegeta meme when we cross $9,000 again (Bitstamp)

I’m bored, thought it’d be cool to keep people on their toes and play a game

Shall the winner post also a snip from Bitstamp as an evidence of 9,000 trespassing?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good morning gentlemen!

$50 worth of BTC for the first person to successfully post a Vegeta meme when we cross $9,000 again (Bitstamp)

I’m bored, thought it’d be cool to keep people on their toes and play a game

Shall the winner post also a snip from Bitstamp as an evidence of 9,000 trespassing?

Yeah, that sounds like a good idea.