Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jackbauercsgo]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

And what should we expect from this?

[realr0ach]

He's claiming the price should go up, but all that's really happened over the last several months is the jackass Chinese Bitcoin mining monopoly attempting to rig the price where it will still be profitable for them post-halving so they don't have to simultaneously shut down every miner they have right when the halving ticks.  In other words, the Bitcoin market is entirely fake.  More manipulated and fake than even the paper metals market.  If only there was a hero to bring the pain to the Chinese market fraud:

[jojo69]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

[jackbauercsgo]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

And what should we expect from this?

Parabolic breaks almost always lead to

1) Strong retracements back (~85% - 60% if I recall, don't have the stats in front of me atm)

2) Macro trend reversals (think of bitcoin run ups and what happens, like after btc hit $20k)

[Dabs]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

[jackbauercsgo]

My personal expectation:

1) price retraces to ~$16k to $20k as we approach halving  <--  this implies like 6 month for a ~2x from here

2) parabolic price explosion upward won't occur until *after* halving, where price is strongly impacted by both regular users & speculators. 

3) For what it's worth, I think just about all alt/btc ratios will dump *until* we hit a new btc/usd ATH.  At that point, as BTC climbs to brand new highs, we'll see our first decent alt season in a while.  BTC will be the only long term coin worth holding, but alt seasons can help grow your stack.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

Good luck with the salty waters and may be with filtering them. We are getting ready to leave the earth soon.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

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All sounds good to me!

[Icygreen]

Breaking up again 8.3k observed

shit, back to 8.2 before I could post

[Dabs]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

Good luck with the salty waters and may be with filtering them. We are getting ready to leave the earth soon.

Granted, its not easy, but it's a lot easier than trying to do it in space. At least in the oceans you have some resources and you're still close enough to go back to land to do a little trading or whatever. You eventually have to deal with other people and society.

The consequences for something going wrong in space is bigger than if something goes wrong in the ocean.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

The consequences for something going wrong in space is bigger than if something goes wrong in the ocean.

I got it earth people but do not forget we are the pioneers who are going to take the risk for better future of the people in Earth. I am sure some day we will conquer mars too.

Bitcoin force 🤪

[Elwar]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

Good luck with the salty waters and may be with filtering them. We are getting ready to leave the earth soon.

We had a water maker on the seastead. It put out 60 liters per day of fresh water. All run on solar.

[Elwar]

Is there anything being done with Colored Coin development anymore? Or did all of the people developing those jump to shitcoins thinking that everyone would rush to their new off chain "solution".

Looking to use the Bitcoin blockchain to record property ownership for the new seasteads.

[kellrobinson]

I don't know why, but I now feel the urge to post another one:



Source: Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

This is an uberbullish log-log graph (log axis on values, log axis on time):

It predicts that the price will not reach $100 000 before 2021, but it also predicts that the price will not be lower than $100 000 by 2028. It predicts that the price will not reach $1 000 000 before 2028, but also that the price will not be lower than that after 2037. The model predicts ever increasing prices, although at a slower and slower rate.

Hope you like, Mic

Looking at the graph the maximum price before 2021 is well under 100k (90k).

Other than that: cool graph. Seems to be a bit more on the conservative side when compared to the past.

The concept of putting time on a log scale is... interesting.
Generally, you would use a log scale for something that accumulates, grows or shrinks.  Such things as stock and commodity prices, the mass of a pile of rocks, and absolute temperatures Kelvin don't exhibit negative values; they have a well defined zero point, and positive values are the only values to consider.  It makes sense to use logarithms on scales where zero is fixed, accounting for changes in proportion.
Time doesn't have this proportional quality.  One doesn't say there was twice as much time in the year 2000 as there was in the year 1000.  And to use a log scale at all, you have to set a point for time zero.
Coinmonks didn't state what point he uses as time zero for his log axis, which led me to do a little mathematical forensics on his chart to find out.
You'll notice that the distance from 2011 to 2012 is the same as the distance from 2013 to 2015.  so:
(2012-t_z)/(2011-t_z) = (2015-t_z)/(2013-t_z)
and
time zero = 2009

edit:  InTheLoop made a comment on Coinmonk's Medium post that bears directly on the matter of defining bitcoin's time zero for the price model

Thanks Harold. You are using time in days since 2009, likely based on bitcoin’s genesis block on 3 Jan 2009. However, in the beginning there wasn’t a great deal of trading and thus price discovery,
so it’s natural to introduce the starting day as an additional parameter in the model. Together with slope and intercept this leads to a three-parameter power-law model, exactly what I have described in my article.
That shift parameter then turns out to be 312 days before 17 July 2010 (the origin of your and my price data), so based on current full historic data, bitcoin’s starting date of the power-law is estimated at 8 September 2009.
Using such 3-parameter fit will increase the quality of the fit even further. See: https://medium.com/@intheloop/when-moon-rational-growth-ranges-for-bitcoin-ffaa94c9d484

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

<snip>

What's up!
Good to see you brother. Hope everything is going well?

[Elwar]

<snip>

What's up!
Good to see you brother. Hope everything is going well?

Alive and well (except this extremely low bitcoin price).

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good to hear.
Yeah it sucks but good days are ahead of course. Keep hustling brother.

[Elwar]

I do believe we need to conquer the ocean before we can move to space. Otherwise we need to wait for governments and NIMBYs to "allow" us to go to space.

The point of our initial seastead was to create a support community for a space launch facility in the open ocean. The aerospace engineer putting it all together and funding it (with his Vladmir Club level bitcoins) is planning on building a launch loop about 60km wide. From there he can launch things into space repeatedly minutes or seconds apart. The seastead I lived in was not built to be a home, rather an observation tower.

He is determined to move forward on this and build a prototype 300m diameter loop in the next year or so as a proof of concept.

Also, going to Mars seems to be a government supported thing. Why go through all of the hassle to get to space...only to get stuck on another rock?

[dragonvslinux]

I don't know why, but I now feel the urge to post another one:



Source: Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

This is a nice chart, it does give me the impression we haven't spend long enough in the green band, given half the time is spent there.
It looks like we could resemble a 2012 style correction, whereby we break out of the support band but are rejected and return to support.
Either way. long-term accumulation is coming in my opinion.