Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Saving = buying your future.

Going in debt = selling your future.

Bitcoin = the ultimate savings vehicle.


https://twitter.com/misir_mahmudov/status/1186397152869847040?s=20

[illyiller]

Look at the monthly and hope we are bottoming out until eoy around 7200 with maybe a wick in the 6ks.

Else we gonna visit 200 wma :S

A second visit to the 200-week? I doubt it. That's a pipe dream. $6K will be rock solid, in fact I am starting to wonder if we'll get there at all.

Yeah, but we have already had our 85% correction down to $3,122.  Remember December 2018?

We are getting another 60% to 85% correction from the $13,880?  That makes hardly any sense.

Take another look at the chart. It's inverted.

[jbreher]

Forgot that this production is way more easy on the ears via speakers, compared to headphones. Too much stereo/separation going on for me. Miss my good old mono/stereo switch like i had on almost any analog mixer that i have touched before.

https://spl.audio/studio/phonitor-2/?lang=en Or similar. Frequency dependent crossfeed in a headphone amp is no longer a particularly esoteric feature.

[Hueristic]

I liked Jeff Berwick too, until he got too close to Roger Ver and became an all-out bcasher.

I'm not sure how he hasn't figured out anarchy isn't a real 'thing', although Elwar hasn't either.  If you advocate for the complete abolition of government, all you get is some Liberian cannibal warlord strongman stepping in and taking over, then you have another new government you didn't want that's even worse than the one before.  Anarchy is nothing but an extremely brief, transitory state.  People don't adopt it due to the saying "the devil you know is better than the one you don't."

As for libertardianism, it's not really possible to practice libertardianism in a closed ecosystem, which is what the earth is.  You would need an ever expanding frontier to homestead on to do that.  Without an ever expanding frontier, you have a closed ecosystem, caged deathmatch where people constantly band together to avoid being exploited by the local psychopaths or the ones down the street, then you have government.  An ever expanding frontier does exist - it's called space, which may or may not be accessible by humans.  

Lying Jeff Berwick has been pitching Acapulco as an anarchist utopia for years. I guess it could be, in an ultra-realism kind of way, since it's 100% controlled by homicidal drug cartels.

https://www.wired.com/story/anarchy-bitcoin-and-murder-in-mexico/

The real threat, Berwick believes, comes from outside as the anarchist movement grows both in numbers and spirit. His goal is to “wake people up.” Slavery, debt, war, and poverty, he says, “can all be stopped through getting rid of governments and central banks.”

Yet he suspects the powers that be won’t sit idly by.

“Basically what we’re talking about here is a lot of what Gandhi talked about, even what John Lennon talked about. Or even JFK to an extent,” Berwick says. “Recognize anything similar with all those people? They all got killed. Because when you get this close to changing the world, the system will come after you.”

Well this is the Gods honest truth.

[jbreher]

https://fortune.com/2019/10/21/stephen-moore-trump-fed-nomination-cryptocurrency-stablecoin-frax/
eh

Frax is the 'solution' that George Gilder has recently been shilling.
meh

[jbreher]

I am absolutely DREADING the day when I finally need to replace my 2015 Macbook Pro. It's still quite useful, but recently played a super sad trombone when I discovered it was not capable of driving a 4k Display @ 60hz. Hate the idea of that visual bar on the new lappies,

It grows on ya. I've come to find it quite useful.

Next major upgrade I'm waiting for is the new Mac Pro.

Likewise. As soon as Pro Tools is qualified on macOS 10.15, I be pulling the trigger. (I'm assuming that will be after the new Mac Pro is shipping).

[kurious]

https://fortune.com/2019/10/21/stephen-moore-trump-fed-nomination-cryptocurrency-stablecoin-frax/
eh

Frax is the 'solution' that George Gilder has recently been shilling.
meh

Made me smile, the article quoted him as saying

“If I had been on the Fed, I would like to have seen encouragement for the development of cryptocurrencies like Frax. It can be a check and balance against runaway currencies”

And Frax is to be pegged to the dollar....

[HI-TEC99]

Next major upgrade I'm waiting for is the new Mac Pro.

Likewise. As soon as Pro Tools is qualified on macOS 10.15, I be pulling the trigger. (I'm assuming that will be after the new Mac Pro is shipping).

Do you have to pay for the equivalent of windows kb updates in macOS? I've never used it, but I read somewhere you get charged for updates.

[Majormax]

I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.  

We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880.  Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal.  AmiNOTrite?

Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.

Unless I read your post incorrectly, I was only trying to suggest that your earlier comment seemed to have been suggesting that we are in an August 2017-like scenario currently.  So, I thought that was a wrong assumption.  Again, maybe I misunderstood your earlier post, but that was why I was trying to suggest that it seems that we are still in early 2016 - and I am not even trying to suggest where we go from here... except maybe up in the next few years ... without any real presumption about whether more correction might happen from where we are right now.

Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak.  I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6  months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is)  , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.

On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH.  The danger I was going on and on about in  Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.

On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.

[Majormax]

Charts can be dismissed as so much claptrap of course, but if we are going to analyse them, may as well do it properly.

In the end, if anyone doesn't like the conclusion of chart analysis, they can say these things don't apply to BTC. Just pick a number out of the air.

[rebal15]

Curious and interesting facts:

Countries with little financial freedom have great adoption of Bitcoin.



Bitcoin's deflationary economy, has done much more than the traditional economy, provides more opportunities for people around the world, criticized the way the policy imposed by the US. UU. And the EU to impose sanctions on some countries, Bittrex and CEX.IO banned some countries with Crypto potential that offer market demand. Regulations should not exist in Crypto.

that's why you read news about lawsuits against Bitfinex.

[rebal15]

Saving = buying your future.

Going in debt = selling your future.

Bitcoin = the ultimate savings vehicle.


https://twitter.com/misir_mahmudov/status/1186397152869847040?s=20

what do you think about "Going in debt for Bitcoin"
is it buying your future, selling your future or both?

[infofront]

https://fortune.com/2019/10/21/stephen-moore-trump-fed-nomination-cryptocurrency-stablecoin-frax/
eh

Frax is the 'solution' that George Gilder has recently been shilling.
meh

Maybe he's losing his edge.

[LUCKMCFLY]

When observing the graph:

$BTC - 6% move over the past day, price failed to close above the monthly open

Price wicked up to the POC (point of control, price level where the most volume traded in this range) and has now pulled back

Want to see price hold level below (green) or BTC will head back down

Source: @Josh_Rager

I like to see that the price of BTC when analyzed with the Volume Profile, after the range of $ 8351.24 if the bulls decide to make another effort can raise the price to the range of $ 9k because the negotiations in that range are few, the price would rise With low volume.

[jbreher]

Next major upgrade I'm waiting for is the new Mac Pro.

Likewise. As soon as Pro Tools is qualified on macOS 10.15, I be pulling the trigger. (I'm assuming that will be after the new Mac Pro is shipping).

Do you have to pay for the equivalent of windows kb updates in macOS? I've never used it, but I read somewhere you get charged for updates.

Well, I don't know what 'windows kb updates' are, so I don't know. OS Patches? No charge. Next major OS rev? No charge. Next patch, minor, or major rev of bundled applications? No charge.

Of course, the entry for the new Mac Pro is $6K. But their free updates policy runs throughout their product line.

[Paashaas]

[JayJuanGee]

Current Weekly outlook: TD Sequential 9 currently up for grabs this week, haven't seen one of these since April 2019 and July 2018.
Full moon didn't do sh*t to decide, hoping this week can define a direction for the following weeks/months.
Looking at three potential scenarios long-term, as shown by A (bullish TD 9), B (wedge breakdown) and C ("bullish TD 9).

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
..


Source: TradingView, October 20th 2019

Next week looks set for a bullish TD Sequential 9 on the Weekly chart that hasn't been seen since July 2018. Back then this led to a 40% increase in the price of Bitcoin followed by 4 months of consolidation. This scenario is labeled "A". Extrapolation C is the inverse of the "bearish" TD 9 in April 2019 that led to a continuation of the bull trend. Hence, C is labeled as the "bullish" TD 9 but would be the most bearish scenario. Scenario B is the extrapolation of the 2018 wedge breakdown, as documented in Part 1 of the Bitcoin repeating history series.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.

Own work: dragononcrypto

I am not sure if I understand the overall proposition, of the above.

Shouldn't three possible scenarios be something more closely resembling: 1) Up 2) down or 3) flat?

How could you have proposed three possible scenarios that are: 1) Up 2) down or 3) up?   Confusioning!!!

Updated the quote, highlighted the relevant scenario. The "bearish" TD 9 in April was bullish af basically, hence if the opposite occurred the "bullish" TD 9 could be bearish af.
Obviously anything could happen, like another 8 different scenarios that somewhat overlap. I just like my comparisons to see that this current price movement isn't that unique at all.
Hope that it explains it, not very good at explaining these things. Only making drawings really.
This wasn't meant to tell you where the price is going, but potentially why, same as Part 8.

Actually, I prefer to predict where the price has been rather than where it is going, too - especially if we are talking about short term predictions and the future.    

[VB1001]

Bitcoin ATMs installation increases by 50%, 1900 ATMs installed last year

On average, around five Bitcoin ATMs are being installed every single day.
North America alone consists of 76.3% of all global Bitcoin ATMs.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-atms-installation-increases-by-50-1900-atms-installed-last-year-201910220059

[JayJuanGee]

I'm starting to ramble on like JJG here. I better wrap this up.

Yeah.  You would not want to ramble like me, you might start making some sense.

hahahahahahaha   

[JayJuanGee]

I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.  

We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880.  Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal.  AmiNOTrite?

Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.

Unless I read your post incorrectly, I was only trying to suggest that your earlier comment seemed to have been suggesting that we are in an August 2017-like scenario currently.  So, I thought that was a wrong assumption.  Again, maybe I misunderstood your earlier post, but that was why I was trying to suggest that it seems that we are still in early 2016 - and I am not even trying to suggest where we go from here... except maybe up in the next few years ... without any real presumption about whether more correction might happen from where we are right now.

Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak.  I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6  months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is)  , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.

On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH.  The danger I was going on and on about in  Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.

On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.

I doubt that either of us are going to assert that any scenario is impossible, the various scenarios just become a matter of probability and also the extent to which we see the rise from $4,200 to $13,880 as a kind of failure to break out or as a break out that just needs some time to consolidate before moving further up.  Even though, to me, you seem more inclined to recognize some kind of failure to break out, I consider the matter to be a kind of unexpected equity cushion that has been created, and likely some difficulties to return all the way back to $4,200 break out point which is a kind of relief in my thinking to have so much cushion between our current price and the $4,200 and below territory in which we were floating prior to April 1.  

Yeah, we can talk about preferences that bitcoin would have moved more slowly and gradually up to $8k, like you said, but that is way too fucking boring for bitcoin.  She does not work like that.  She works, partly, by engaging in exaggerated price moves that no one expected, and she does it because she can.  And, for that reason, no one really has any meaningful ability to predict what she is going to do next, except for knowing that if we have enough capital, then we can attempt to push her beyond expectations (and perhaps that does not always work, but some whales are going to make some efforts in that direction and try to see if they can get their momentum to stick and to either make a profit on the way up or make a profit on the way down).

Probably you and I are not saying anything too much different from each other, except that you seem to want to emphasize down, and I continue to want to remain hopeful about any up that might occur.  Each of us believes that we are more correct than the other in how we describe bitcoin price dynamics, and in the end, we are saying very similar things with somewhat disparate emphases.

Charts can be dismissed as so much claptrap of course, but if we are going to analyse them, may as well do it properly.

In the end, if anyone doesn't like the conclusion of chart analysis, they can say these things don't apply to BTC. Just pick a number out of the air.

I agree.  Fuck the charts, unless they say something that I like.