I actually don't like this chart since it shows that pretty much every time when there was an outsize move up, it was followed by almost the same %% move down, especially in the first half of the chart. Hopefully, we will be able to escape this here, I hope, or it would be brutal.
These sort of moves are unhealthy, especially without a proper base. A slow grind up is the only way to sustain a move over the longer term.
Like I just said in my comment to lambie, above. Bitcoin is not a mature market, and you cannot expect her to act like a mature market. Therefore she is going to do outrageously unexpected things like this. Part of the expected is that the unexpected is going to happen, especially towards the upside and especially since it is quite likely that we are within an exponential phase of s-curve adoption, which is part of the explanation - including increasing volatility like you suggested in both directions, but likely more often happening disproportionately to the upside.
Many posters will celebrate this sort of pump, only to have their hopes dashed again.
Only if you are either not prepared for it or you are not recognizing that there are way the fuck more UPs than DOWNs, especially if we zoom out a bit... and especially if we are able to ride these babies out for 3.5 years or better yet more than 5 years.
Of course, one should always look at the alternative : that this is the beginning of a long move up, but at this rate, that is a low probability. A new exponential move that fails below 13500 would be very bearish.
You are likely right that we could get a bit of a disproportionate retrace, but who the fuck cares, ultimately we are going up, and I don't know why you want to attribute so much to $13,500, who cares about that? Yeah maybe it will take a few more tries before we are able to pierce through $13,500, but in the end, we are going through $13,500 and likely $13,500 is going to be a blip in the rear view mirror on a road that is not revisited.
Only if 14k gets broken decisively, the outlook changes (with a new ath in sights) That looks a very long way off atm.
Long way off as in 1 year? That's fine. We can deal with it. Or long way off like 2-3 years? That does not seem too likely.
Seems that once we are approaching 2 years, especially 2 years from right now, we are going to be long into ATHs and maybe even we might be at the end of this particular bull cycle by then. Perhaps? Perhaps? Perhaps we might get a bit front runned this time, who knows? Time will tell, and these little periods of overexcited and irrational exuberance surely shows both the power of king daddy and also that we are in early days and experiencing a bit of an underlying battle... that sometimes us mere mortal regular people just have to have enough ability and foresight to HODL through such tramas and maybe even figure out ways to skim a little profits off of the nearly inbred likelihood that we are going to have ongoing volatility including sometimes extreme short period outbursts.
By the way, the "tramas" of the outrageous period of irrational exuberance are likely to be much easier to deal with, both psychologically and financially, if you construct a kind of systematic way to attempt to take some advantage of what is already kind of expected... (which is expecting a bit of the unexpected... that has become bitcoin over its whole life time, essentially and yesterday was a bit of an extreme because bitcoin's volatility is generally seeming to go down, but surely yesterday shows that she is still easily and "normally" capable of such immature and irrational extremes).
Poll
