Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Just watching ‘Take Me Out’.

It’s a UK dating show.

Look what one of the girls is called, perfect for our very own.....

We all know he loves a woman of colour

She doesn't look like a jew, so I'm not sure r0ach's mama would approve.
I could take one for the team if it comes to that.

[makrospex]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

[d_eddie]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details 

[JayJuanGee]

Along the lines of walls of text and over-investing...

 I have attempted to find Bitcoin addresses containing 10 letter words (after the initial 1) without regard for case (which makes it much easier) using a list of 22,399 words and the full processing capacity of my computer for 24 hours.  You'll be happy(er) to know, JJG, that I was able to find only one match from that entire list of words:

Pub Addr: 1ExeRcYCLeSxaZkCh7togWcSgcofRYVDLZ
Priv (WIF): L4o3NZYoSf6GVmLaxcaqtmunqiNBs77PNyANmpYtcL6r6dMtcCXb
Priv (HEX): 0xE202278FF792CE920126E8D3A2EE1483AB9FA00807B10B71EAACDAD1DD4D36E4

 and I believe that was mostly due to good luck.

 If I were to try for an exact case-sensitive match of 1ExercycLes (capital L because Bitcoin addresses can't use miniscule L capital I or Capital O) with random characters after it, I would need 2.4 years for a 50% chance of success.  ∴ your funds are SAFU.

 On a sad note, I will likely never find a 1JayJuanGee or a 1micgoossens address and a 1LastoftheV8s is just a pipe dream as I am dangerously close to the limit of my wife's generosity for tolerating computer upgrades for this decade.  (fortunately we start a new one soon!)

 I hate to disappoint Mr. MicG so this is for his reading pleasure:

Pub Addr: 1CLiMAXt43DiJBPT9z7YEppUS8ssPjjUNJ
Priv (WIF): L5BunfnNDEdWC9w4hzWmbHBrUzp44YEp51TPgr6XcHqerghUTKJc
Priv (HEX): 0xEDC5F18B29BDC350F02B9AB4BB067752AD07F944EE697824B5C13452B7769453

 I get those all day long with my current hardware. 

hahahahahaha

I am ssssssoooooooooo glad that you are able to find a hobby that keeps you formulating mathmatical computer problems in your spare time when you are not making hats and keeping your dad in touch with modern computing.... 

By the way, I understand that I can be a continuous bubble deflater, but what good do any of these vanity addresses do, anyhow?

Aren't best practices to largely limit use of any one address, and perhaps even one use per address.  Of course, there might be some occasions in which exceptions might be applicable.. for an institution that wants to keep books open or something like that, but private individuals?  Are we reusing bitcoin addresses?   Do you just plan to use some of these generated addresses one time, Xhomerx10?  Then how much good are they?  like a mayfly.. live with fame for only a very short period of time?

[JayJuanGee]

mindrust, don't invest more than you're ready to lose.

Don't want to sound like a bear or a party poop as someone would say - I'm far from both positions as it should be clear to anyone following this thread - but hard times do happen, it's best to be "pee pared" as the same someone would put it ;-)

TL;DR don't overdo it. DCA with the occasional BTFD spree is fine.

I already invested more than I could afford to lose   (%25) Didn't cash out any. Not even my initial investment.

Ok ok I'll leave the red button alone. For now.

But the thought just doesn't go away  

Actually more reason that you should not either push the red button or employ option 3.

Hey, mindrust, I think that you already know that I don't give two shits about what you do, but since we are posting on a public thread, of course, if you are bringing up ideas regarding investing and overinvesting and all of that, many of the responses are meant for public absorption... or at least consideration of the ideas.

Accordingly, we know that it is different to invest 25% and/or to achieve 25% based on BTC appreciation.

These surely are considerations that any investor into BTC should be making regarding both how much to invest and whether or not to reallocate.  Sometimes choosing NOT to reallocate is a kind of additional investment, especially if the Bitcoin value (proportion) of your investment becomes way the fuck beyond your initial allocation authorizations. 

Personally, I am NOT so much into needing to reallocate in an asset like bitcoin merely because it has blown other investments out of the water, but of course, opinions are going to vary on that topic, and none of them are really unreasonable - even though each of them can contribute to individually considering the extent to which you are either overinvested, underinvested or adequately covered in your various other investments.

I know that there are people who do not have a lot of kinds of investments like stocks, bonds, real estate, PMs and other investment vehicles, so these calculations are going to differ too, regarding how prepared any of us might be on an individual level if one or more of the investments went to zero.. and of course, if there is only one investment, then the risk becomes greater.. at least in the scaling of "overinvestment" calculations, ponderings and considerations.

[Hueristic]

Well shit, that is gonna fuck my recommended all up now.

I think you can delete individuals from your history

Funny I googled how to do that and noscript blocked the google cross site script.

NoScript detected a potential Cross-Site Scripting attack

from https://startpage.com to https://support.google.com.

Suspicious data:

(URL) https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/6342839?co=GENIE.Platform=Android&hl=en

[makrospex]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it 

[pereira4]

So apparently, CSWcoin is going to hardfork in the near future. Said hardfork includes the fantastic idea of basically stealing people's unclaimed BTC, which means, if you didn't claim your BSV, those coins will be "confiscated" by CSW-Ayre's mining operation (which I presume are the only people mining the thing). This also includes that satoshi's "1 million" coins will be stolen. According to raw calculations, they'll get $85million. I mean, it's not a lot, but still, this has to be a joke right? am I taking crazy pills? How is people unironically supporting such thing at this point?

I assume most here didn't even bother claiming the coins. I mean, it's such a pain claiming a forked coins, you have to do much for so little, but I don't appreciate CSW getting free money, but still, I may just don't bother.

If this is not the case, correct me if im wrong on the whole thing, but that is what I extracted from what I've read.

Can you link to highlighted, please?
Apart from rumors, i haven' seen anything solid, as it would be very weird.

Gmaxwell did address this on bsv subreddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/bsv/comments/edr0av/massive_replay_theft_coming_to_a_scamchain_near/

And official bsv page says:

https://bitcoinsv.io/2019/12/23/bitcoin-sv-blocking-potential-p2sh-replay-attack-after-genesis-hard-fork/

Mitigation

In response, the Bitcoin SV Node team will update the “Genesis” hard fork specification by upgrading the rule rejecting the P2SH script pattern from a policy rule to a consensus rule.  That is the specific script template “OP_HASH160 <hash> OP_EQUAL” will not be allowed in new outputs and this rule will be directly implemented in the Bitcoin SV Node software.  Whilst unfortunate to restrict the usage of a particular script pattern, we note that the same effect can be achieved using variations of the script pattern e.g. “OP_SHA256 OP_RIPEMD160 <hash> OP_EQUAL”.

This change closes the attack vector and mitigates the need for honest miners to forcibly reject blocks containing theft transactions.  Whilst this could have triggered a valuable demonstration of the principle of honest miners acting punitively against dishonest miners, the public disclosure by Mr. Maxwell raises the potential cost to those miners to an unacceptable level.

Note: The theory is that it is argued if there were any "mistakes" here, and stealing funds was always part of the plan, they just got caught by gmaxwell.

I don't understand any of this.  I read the subreddit linked above.  Which coins might be stolen if the worst happens?  What does it mean for those of us who have bitcoins stored in segwit addresses and "compatibile" (starting with 3) addresses?

Trying to make any sense out of this clusterfuck. So apparently (and I forgot about this) Bitcoin SV did fork from Bitcoin Cash. Now, on BCH addresses:

When Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was created, it shared the same address format as bitcoin. In an effort to alleviate any confusion for users of both digital currencies, BCH developers later proposed a new unique format for BCH addresses called CashAddr. This new address format will help users more easily distinguish between bitcoin and BCH addresses. The updated format only changes how BCH addresses are displayed, not the underlying private and public keys.

Each BCH address also has a “legacy address,” which is its corresponding bitcoin address. Going forward, the Blockchain wallet will only display the corresponding CashAddr addresses. Users can continue to send and receive using legacy BCH addresses, but we recommend using the new format for an optimal user experience.

So the way I see it is that, people affected by this, will be the ones that had unclaimed BCH which remained in legacy addresses, but only the amounts that be sitting on p2sh... so to put it simple, any unclaimed amounts sitting on addresses that don't begin with 1 can be stolen. This proves in practice, an scenario in which the schelling point to hold your coins is addresses that begin with 1, and nothing else. Nobody will ever be stupid enough to break backwards-compatibility with addresses that begin with 1 (the original format) so seems reasonable to hold your coins in such format.

Now, if you bother with the clusterfuck that is claiming coins from a fork, then go for it, but a lot of people may simply don't even care they lose those coins all things considered. I mean, I would hate giving those guys "free money", but at this point I can't be fucking bothered with any of this nonsense, im trying to relax and enjoy the holidays, last thing on my mind is having to deal with this insanity to be frank. Remember that it requires that you move the entirety of your holdings, then download some dodgy software, then have to sync the entire blockchain of said altcoin, copy the empty wallet after you've moved your funds in there, and finally dump the damn thing. All of this without screwing up in the process.

[Biodom]

My term deposit at bank is about to mature after 6 months. I'm getting like $1k for this shitty investment. And what is worse, the interest rates got halved. Next time, I'll be getting like $500 for the same investment at the same bank.

I am making a big decision here:


Option 1: Keep collecting peanuts. Keep DCA'ing.

Option 2: Buy the dip, Keep DCA'ing. (1-2 btc)

Option 3: Nuke everything and become a 1 million club member while I still can. (all in)

*Option 3 violates my investment rules. Violates it like fuck all gimme lambo.

I had done option "3" once in my life when I was much younger. Lost everything in that fiat account, which I since rebuilt to personal ATH, but it took many years.
That said, it depends on several parameters:

1. Your investment portfolio size vs your yearly income
2. Your age
3. How steady you job is (if there is a job).
4. family responsibilities, if any
5. last, but most important-the probability of the trade success (if it could be assigned)

If investment portfolio is small in comparison with yearly income, I don't see why someone cannot invest a large %, providing that the job is steady and you have a good income.

There is a formula (Klein criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

EDIT2 messed up the last name..it is Kelly, not Klein, kudos to Millionero for correction.

[d_eddie]

Well shit, that is gonna fuck my recommended all up now.

I think you can delete individuals from your history

Funny I googled how to do that and noscript blocked the google cross site script.

NoScript detected a potential Cross-Site Scripting attack

from https://startpage.com to https://support.google.com.

Suspicious data:

(URL) https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/6342839?co=GENIE.Platform=Android&hl=en

The ones that went "don't be evil"... 

BTW, startpage is my goto search engine these days. Better than the duck for me. I like the way it lets you save preferences without cookies: They can be encoded in a custom (anonymous of course) search URL.

[d_eddie]

There is a formula (Klein criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).

[mindrust]

Actually more reason that you should not either push the red button or employ option 3.

Hey, mindrust, I think that you already know that I don't give two shits about what you do,...

It just adds entertainment to the thread I believe.

Like the guy who sold his house and bought bitcoins back in the day, when did that happen in 2013?... Lemme check google...

Aaand found it:

I'm All In - Sold My House! I was close it was from 2014.

Dude is a multimillionaire now, if he hedl.

At that time he didn't know what was waiting for him neither... just like me or any other people right now. He did something crazy. It was entertaining. It happens that I'm kinda in a mood for some extreme sports too.

1. Your investment portfolio size vs your yearly income
2. Your age
3. How steady you job is (if there is a job).
4. family responsibilities, if any
5. last, but most important-the probability of the trade success (if it could be assigned)

1. 6.
2. 32
3. Job itself is pretty steady. The country and the national currency is not. It is a circus here. That's one of the reasons that I am increasing my buys lately. I'm afraid at some point, I'll probably have to go all-in not because I want to, because I'll have to.

4. None.
5. I believe I can spot the top price this time quite accurately. ~%20 error margin. (means I believe I would cash out when its at ~16k while it could go to 20k) Equipped with pretty stronk TA tools over the years.

Applied the formula: It says I shouldn't go all in. I should go %50-60 in... (If I understood it right) Which kinda makes sense. Looks like I just need to get to the double digits as fast as possible and then crack a cold beer and sit down and watch. Your formula pretty much verified my trading investment strategy which I've been doing it by following my own instincts.

[Globb0]

CSW fork steal accident is conveniently timed close to the don't know when he will get the keys to the secret locked up money.


Hmmmm   I wonder.

[pereira4]

My term deposit at bank is about to mature after 6 months. I'm getting like $1k for this shitty investment. And what is worse, the interest rates got halved. Next time, I'll be getting like $500 for the same investment at the same bank.

I am making a big decision here:


Option 1: Keep collecting peanuts. Keep DCA'ing.

Option 2: Buy the dip, Keep DCA'ing. (1-2 btc)

Option 3: Nuke everything and become a 1 million club member while I still can. (all in)

*Option 3 violates my investment rules. Violates it like fuck all gimme lambo.

Option 2

I’m in the same boat. I have $xxx,xxx value in bitcoin.

I have $xx,xxx value in fiat savings.

I’m absolutely balls deep in bitcoin to be honest, probably way over invested than any sane person should be.

I currently get 1% interest per annum which on the fiat savings which is fucking pathetic. I really should pump it all into bitcoin like your option 2 says. It is nice to have some back up cash just incase something happens especially as I’m self employed - i.e. no sick pay, holiday pay etc.

Pump all is "option 3" I believe. Typo?

You current net worth is my target networth for my retirement   Anything over 500k, and I am done. The closer it gets to $1m, the better it is though.

I guess I'll do option 2, and get 1 step closer to the double digits.

I’m close to mid 30’s, $500,000 isn’t enough for me in the UK. My plan is $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 but everything looks simple on paper doesn’t it.

I will never sell all my bitcoin’s though.

And yes typo - Option 3 lol

Are you factoring in taxes? those are some big numbers. Which are the % brackets on capital gains vs income tax on the UK? How did you acquire your BTC? In the US, I've heard if you hold for 1 year, any income tax that would apply expire and only capital gains apply. However the problem would be explaining to the administration that some guy on a forum paid you to post, that you acquired gains through forks, mining shitcoins and trading them on now dead exchanges years ago, faucets which have been dead for years and you  didn't keep any records... all those things add up into a tax nightmare hard to explain as most likely there's lack of documentation that got lost along the way. It's all licit origin, however, there is a risk they think you are bullshitting. It is a clusterfuck cashing out BTC in any scenario that isn't having purchased BTC in a regulated KYC/AML exchange, at your name with registered ID and keeping all buy and sell records. Other than that, you are playing a lottery in which they may or not think you are a dodgy individual trying to launder money. That's the problem for people that obtain BTC any other ways when they want to cash out. For some odd reason some people think they can simply cash out and "the burden of proof is on state authorities, they must prove im a criminal" as if that was a good idea. There's a lot of people that didn't do anything wrong stuck with BTC's not being able to cash out due fear of authorities, since they can't clearly prove the origin. I wonder how much % of that money is part of the BTC that hasn't moved.

[d_eddie]

CSW fork steal accident is conveniently timed close to the don't know when he will get the keys to the secret locked up money.


Hmmmm   I wonder.

If he hopes to gather what he owes by dumping BSV2 or whatever it's called, he's in for some disappointment. 

[mindrust]

Are you factoring in taxes? those are some big numbers. Which are the % brackets on capital gains vs income tax on the UK? How did you acquire your BTC? In the US, I've heard if you hold for 1 year, any income tax that would apply expire and only capital gains apply. However the problem would be explaining to the administration that some guy on a forum paid you to post, that you acquired gains through forks, mining shitcoins and trading them on now dead exchanges years ago, faucets which have been dead for years and you  didn't keep any records... all those things add up into a tax nightmare hard to explain as most likely there's lack of documentation that got lost along the way. It's all licit origin, however, there is a risk they think you are bullshitting. It is a clusterfuck cashing out BTC in any scenario that isn't having purchased BTC in a regulated KYC/AML exchange, at your name with registered ID and keeping all buy and sell records. Other than that, you are playing a lottery in which they may or not think you are a dodgy individual trying to launder money. That's the problem for people that obtain BTC any other ways when they want to cash out. For some odd reason some people think they can simply cash out and "the burden of proof is on state authorities, they must prove im a criminal" as if that was a good idea. There's a lot of people that didn't do anything wrong stuck with BTC's not being able to cash out due fear of authorities, since they can't clearly prove the origin. I wonder how much % of that money is part of the BTC that hasn't moved.

There is a solution to this nightmare. Cash out your coins in some other country where they don't ask stupid questions. Here for example, nobody gives af about where you got your money from or how.. But you may want to get away fast for other reasons.  

[ðºÞæ]

....................................
I don't understand any of this.  I read the subreddit linked above.  Which coins might be stolen if the worst happens?  What does it mean for those of us who have bitcoins stored in segwit addresses and "compatibile" (starting with 3) addresses?

Men from the Boys be separated soon enough.
Bottom line any Bitcoin address not beginning with 1 is not Bitcoin, period.

"q......." Bitcoin Cash, not Bitcoin address
"A......." Bitcoin Gold, not Bitcoin address
"bc1..." SegWit, not Bitcoin address
"d......." Bitcoin Diamond, not Bitcoin address
"R......" Bitcoin Rhodium, not Bitcoin address
"3......" BitcoinHD, not Bitcoin address
"0x... " Bitcoin Hex, not Bitcoin address
....

[Arriemoller]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it 

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

[Arriemoller]

I thought we were all nerds here.

We are, just not computer nerds

[Last of the V8s]