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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21577910 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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December 28, 2019, 07:20:11 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)



Well shit, that is gonna fuck my recommended all up now.



I think you can delete individuals from your history

Funny I googled how to do that and noscript blocked the google cross site script.

Quote
NoScript detected a potential Cross-Site Scripting attack

from https://startpage.com to https://support.google.com.

Suspicious data:

(URL) https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/6342839?co=GENIE.Platform=Android&hl=en

The ones that went "don't be evil"...  Angry

BTW, startpage is my goto search engine these days. Better than the duck for me. I like the way it lets you save preferences without cookies: They can be encoded in a custom (anonymous of course) search URL.
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December 28, 2019, 07:30:00 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1)

There is a formula (Klein criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).
mindrust
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December 28, 2019, 07:38:16 PM
Last edit: December 28, 2019, 07:51:35 PM by mindrust


Actually more reason that you should not either push the red button or employ option 3.

Hey, mindrust, I think that you already know that I don't give two shits about what you do,...

It just adds entertainment to the thread I believe.

Like the guy who sold his house and bought bitcoins back in the day, when did that happen in 2013?... Lemme check google...

Aaand found it:

I'm All In - Sold My House! I was close it was from 2014.

Dude is a multimillionaire now, if he hedl.

At that time he didn't know what was waiting for him neither... just like me or any other people right now. He did something crazy. It was entertaining. It happens that I'm kinda in a mood for some extreme sports too.



1. Your investment portfolio size vs your yearly income
2. Your age
3. How steady you job is (if there is a job).
4. family responsibilities, if any
5. last, but most important-the probability of the trade success (if it could be assigned)



1. 6.
2. 32
3. Job itself is pretty steady. The country and the national currency is not. It is a circus here. That's one of the reasons that I am increasing my buys lately. I'm afraid at some point, I'll probably have to go all-in not because I want to, because I'll have to.

4. None.
5. I believe I can spot the top price this time quite accurately. ~%20 error margin. (means I believe I would cash out when its at ~16k while it could go to 20k) Equipped with pretty stronk TA tools over the years.

Applied the formula: It says I shouldn't go all in. I should go %50-60 in... (If I understood it right) Which kinda makes sense. Looks like I just need to get to the double digits as fast as possible and then crack a cold beer and sit down and watch. Your formula pretty much verified my trading investment strategy which I've been doing it by following my own instincts.
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December 28, 2019, 07:39:15 PM

CSW fork steal accident is conveniently timed close to the don't know when he will get the keys to the secret locked up money.


Hmmmm   I wonder.
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December 28, 2019, 07:45:38 PM

My term deposit at bank is about to mature after 6 months. I'm getting like $1k for this shitty investment. And what is worse, the interest rates got halved. Next time, I'll be getting like $500 for the same investment at the same bank.

I am making a big decision here:


Option 1: Keep collecting peanuts. Keep DCA'ing.

Option 2: Buy the dip, Keep DCA'ing. (1-2 btc)

Option 3: Nuke everything and become a 1 million club member while I still can. (all in)

*Option 3 violates my investment rules. Violates it like fuck all gimme lambo.






Option 2

I’m in the same boat. I have $xxx,xxx value in bitcoin.

I have $xx,xxx value in fiat savings.

I’m absolutely balls deep in bitcoin to be honest, probably way over invested than any sane person should be.

I currently get 1% interest per annum which on the fiat savings which is fucking pathetic. I really should pump it all into bitcoin like your option 2 says. It is nice to have some back up cash just incase something happens especially as I’m self employed - i.e. no sick pay, holiday pay etc.

Pump all is "option 3" I believe. Typo?

You current net worth is my target networth for my retirement  Grin Anything over 500k, and I am done. The closer it gets to $1m, the better it is though.

I guess I'll do option 2, and get 1 step closer to the double digits.

I’m close to mid 30’s, $500,000 isn’t enough for me in the UK. My plan is $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 but everything looks simple on paper doesn’t it.

I will never sell all my bitcoin’s though.

And yes typo - Option 3 lol


Are you factoring in taxes? those are some big numbers. Which are the % brackets on capital gains vs income tax on the UK? How did you acquire your BTC? In the US, I've heard if you hold for 1 year, any income tax that would apply expire and only capital gains apply. However the problem would be explaining to the administration that some guy on a forum paid you to post, that you acquired gains through forks, mining shitcoins and trading them on now dead exchanges years ago, faucets which have been dead for years and you  didn't keep any records... all those things add up into a tax nightmare hard to explain as most likely there's lack of documentation that got lost along the way. It's all licit origin, however, there is a risk they think you are bullshitting. It is a clusterfuck cashing out BTC in any scenario that isn't having purchased BTC in a regulated KYC/AML exchange, at your name with registered ID and keeping all buy and sell records. Other than that, you are playing a lottery in which they may or not think you are a dodgy individual trying to launder money. That's the problem for people that obtain BTC any other ways when they want to cash out. For some odd reason some people think they can simply cash out and "the burden of proof is on state authorities, they must prove im a criminal" as if that was a good idea. There's a lot of people that didn't do anything wrong stuck with BTC's not being able to cash out due fear of authorities, since they can't clearly prove the origin. I wonder how much % of that money is part of the BTC that hasn't moved.
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December 28, 2019, 07:47:54 PM

CSW fork steal accident is conveniently timed close to the don't know when he will get the keys to the secret locked up money.


Hmmmm   I wonder.

If he hopes to gather what he owes by dumping BSV2 or whatever it's called, he's in for some disappointment.  Grin
mindrust
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December 28, 2019, 07:52:52 PM


Are you factoring in taxes? those are some big numbers. Which are the % brackets on capital gains vs income tax on the UK? How did you acquire your BTC? In the US, I've heard if you hold for 1 year, any income tax that would apply expire and only capital gains apply. However the problem would be explaining to the administration that some guy on a forum paid you to post, that you acquired gains through forks, mining shitcoins and trading them on now dead exchanges years ago, faucets which have been dead for years and you  didn't keep any records... all those things add up into a tax nightmare hard to explain as most likely there's lack of documentation that got lost along the way. It's all licit origin, however, there is a risk they think you are bullshitting. It is a clusterfuck cashing out BTC in any scenario that isn't having purchased BTC in a regulated KYC/AML exchange, at your name with registered ID and keeping all buy and sell records. Other than that, you are playing a lottery in which they may or not think you are a dodgy individual trying to launder money. That's the problem for people that obtain BTC any other ways when they want to cash out. For some odd reason some people think they can simply cash out and "the burden of proof is on state authorities, they must prove im a criminal" as if that was a good idea. There's a lot of people that didn't do anything wrong stuck with BTC's not being able to cash out due fear of authorities, since they can't clearly prove the origin. I wonder how much % of that money is part of the BTC that hasn't moved.

There is a solution to this nightmare. Cash out your coins in some other country where they don't ask stupid questions. Here for example, nobody gives af about where you got your money from or how.. But you may want to get away fast for other reasons.  Grin
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December 28, 2019, 07:58:41 PM
Last edit: December 28, 2019, 08:33:24 PM by ðºÞæ

....................................
I don't understand any of this.  I read the subreddit linked above.  Which coins might be stolen if the worst happens?  What does it mean for those of us who have bitcoins stored in segwit addresses and "compatibile" (starting with 3) addresses?


Men from the Boys be separated soon enough.
Bottom line any Bitcoin address not beginning with 1 is not Bitcoin, period.

"q......." Bitcoin Cash, not Bitcoin address
"A......." Bitcoin Gold, not Bitcoin address
"bc1..." SegWit, not Bitcoin address
"d......." Bitcoin Diamond, not Bitcoin address
"R......" Bitcoin Rhodium, not Bitcoin address
"3......" BitcoinHD, not Bitcoin address
"0x... " Bitcoin Hex, not Bitcoin address
....
Arriemoller
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December 28, 2019, 08:23:20 PM

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 Huh
You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  Roll Eyes

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it  Grin

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.
Arriemoller
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December 28, 2019, 08:31:51 PM

I thought we were all nerds here.

We are, just not computer nerds Smiley
Last of the V8s
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December 28, 2019, 08:52:22 PM

El duderino_
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Bitcointalk, where moral and ethical people post!


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December 28, 2019, 09:07:47 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1), LUCKMCFLY (1), StartupAnalyst (1)

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Today,..... damn already made scampi diablo with some spicy tomato salad on the side as a starter, served some dompey rosé, white wine, Gin tonics.... after Tuna Robespierre with French fries..... now a walk with my dogs and after Tiramisu desert all made by me and a petit help of CQ Cheesy
Sorry no pics only desert maybe if people want proof  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

But damn I cocked like hell for my GF Fam and sis etc.....
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December 28, 2019, 09:11:39 PM

3% not bad ..

Quote
#bitcoin 200 week moving average has never gone down, currently increasing at $150 (3%) per month


Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1210984765739941888
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December 28, 2019, 09:14:38 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

But damn I cocked like hell for my GF

I bet you did you rascal.
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December 28, 2019, 09:15:46 PM

But damn I cocked like hell for my GF

I bet you did you rascal.

I bet he cocked all over her face.  Grin Tongue

I think we made it through the rough patch. 

I thought we would hit $5000, but we didn't in 2019... I expect a good strong 2020 for Bitcoin.  ATH's?
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December 28, 2019, 09:45:18 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

"q......." Bitcoin Cash, not Bitcoin address
"A......." Bitcoin Gold, not Bitcoin address
"bc1..." SegWit, not Bitcoin address
"d......." Bitcoin Diamond, not Bitcoin address
"R......" Bitcoin Rhodium, not Bitcoin address
"3......" BitcoinHD, not Bitcoin address
"0x... " Bitcoin Hex, not Bitcoin address
....

"ð..." /r/btc, not bitcointalk
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December 28, 2019, 09:49:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

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Today,..... damn already made scampi diablo with some spicy tomato salad on the side as a starter, served some dompey rosé, white wine, Gin tonics.... after Tuna Robespierre with French fries..... now a walk with my dogs and after Tiramisu desert all made by me and a petit help of CQ Cheesy
Sorry no pics only desert maybe if people want proof  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

But damn I cocked like hell for my GF Fam and sis etc.....
I don't need proof, I already believe you. I think everyone here believes you except the r0ach.  Grin Grin
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December 28, 2019, 09:53:25 PM

Roach, I found you a nice belated Christmas present. https://www.hessenantique.com/NSDAP_Gold_Party_Badge_p/2120601.htm

How about those flags I asked about, you know where to get them?
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December 28, 2019, 10:00:27 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), Arriemoller (1)

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Today,..... damn already made scampi diablo with some spicy tomato salad on the side as a starter, served some dompey rosé, white wine, Gin tonics.... after Tuna Robespierre with French fries..... now a walk with my dogs and after Tiramisu desert all made by me and a petit help of CQ Cheesy
Sorry no pics only desert maybe if people want proof  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

But damn I cocked like hell for my GF Fam and sis etc.....
I don't need proof, I already believe you. I think everyone here believes you except the r0ach.  Grin Grin

 With all this frantic, french cocking going on, there's got to be a joke involving the name Bonaparte.
HI-TEC99
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December 28, 2019, 10:04:59 PM

info, we already were in $7.5k



We already been in 6.5 and 7.5 so it’s just zero game and we are re-doing it

How about this for a new poll?

1. Craig Wright is Satoshi

2. He's not Satoshi, he's a very naughty boy.

It would be interesting to see if even one person picks option 1.
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