Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

Fees are low right now, but if Bitcoin grows fees with be high again. Maybe not that high as in Q4 2017, but still.

Maybe higher. Maybe much much higher.

not this again!  

I agree. I'd rather the fees did not become astronomical again. But I'm pretty well sure that they will.

Seems you're making plans based upon such an expectation yourself, no?

[El duderino_]

@jbreher, why don't you give the game a try and a small text about why you think the guessed price you would give??

Thanks, mic. But no thanks.

As to why, it might be only because each time I logged on, I'd have yet another unread thread clamoring for my attention. Which in today's attention-starved environment, is reason enough.

One can only ask .....Just try to be a friendly WO ....

Have asked a few other non-players as well before so a Njet again

[Gyrsur]

how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.

And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard on it

i don't doubt that if you have addresses with which you will get in focus of authorities because you have an monthly income of <10k and you want to cash out an address with >500k on it. but if you are flying under the radar with small addresses you don't have to prove the origin of funds. and even if. I bought mining equipment for what? to play SatoshiDice and lost all.

It depends on what you plan to do.

Will you will you not want to cash out a significant ammount?

If you won't ever cash out, or only insignificant amount then yeah, whatever you do will probably irrelevant.

But, if you ever want to cash out a significant amount, ie: 50K, 100K, 500K, 1MM... You better be prepared to demonstrate origin of funds and, probably, full "chain of custody".

That you do it using small batches doesn't really matter. It is the yearly total what does.

KYC/AML will only get worse in the future. It is for that what you do want to be prepared.

to this differentiation of you I can fully agree now.

As I said, there is some point in maintaning some separate BTC "accounts" but splitting 1 BTC into 1000 addresses is totally unjustified, cumbersome, expensive and probably doesn't offer any advantage. But hey, it's your BTC!  

not less convinced of the opposite as some posts before.  



EDIT: man, can somebody tell Thermos he should switch to the feature back that if someone is editing his post and a other user quotes this unfinished post (because of editing) then always the newer version should be quoted and not the unedited. this sucks!

example post unedited: "to play SatoshiDice and lost all."

after editing and finished before the quoter finished his post: "to play SatoshiDice and lost all or either not."

but the quoted post still shows (although he finished his post later then the editor): "to play SatoshiDice and lost all."

it was better before!  

[Biodom]

<...>

I am sorry, but this one has unreliable data:

from 12/31/2014 closing at 320.19 to 12/31/2015 closing at 430.57 is ONLY 34.47% vs indicated (88.1%).
I did not bother to check other numbers.

“Don’t trust, verify”

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1212755833249042432

Now I can't do the check, but I think it refers to this graph.

The guy you referenced just can't do maf.

APY (in %) calculated from monthly returns should be done according to a formula:

APY=[((1+r1)*(1+r2)*(1+r3).....*(1+r12))-1]*100

If monthly reward is, for example 15%, then you get 1.15 multiplier for that particular month, and if it is -20%, then 0.8 multiplier accordingly.
Source: https://financetrain.com/how-to-annualize-monthly-returns-example/

Putting in his monthly (which I don't know if they are right or not) gives me 37% (instead of 88.1) for 2015, which makes much more sense if you compare the EOY numbers.

The common mistake is to equate positive and negative returns.
For example, if you had a -50% month and then a +50% month, you are NOT back to where you were at the beginning, bit lost 25%.

[JayJuanGee]

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $7,346

Are we going bullish?

As long as we stay below $8.200 in january, i'd be bearish (short term).

And if we go above, would your guess then still be the same on that game??

This is a good question. To be true, i am bearish atm (fully since 11/2019), until after the halvening. That's why i decided to prepare for $5-$6k zones around end of Q1/2020.
If the price breaks the upper boundary of the downtrend channel, within january respectively (around $8.2k), i'd likely change my sentiment and i would have to admit that i chose the wrong bet for April 1st. Which would be the same "mistake" like in the last Q4 game, just the other way round.

EDIT: Why?
Because i was wrong too many times in the last two years, just because i didn't wait for confirmation of various buy or sell signals.

I am interested in your "edit" comment at the end bolded above.  Do you really believe that there is such a thing as "buy"/"sell" signals?  Wouldn't we be MOAR richie if we knew about such purported signals?  Surely, after the fact we know all kinds of fucking things about the existence of such 20/20 hindsight buy/sell signals, but I doubt that they are so damned clear while in the midst of the process that any of us are going to transition into MOAR richie rather than MOAR poor for our gambling upon such bullshit purported signals.    

Good luck with playing around with your purported "buy"/"sell" signals...., this time is different....  


 

 

Makrospex, since you're a noob, let me inform you that your main problem right now is not whether you're interpreting TA correctly or not, it's whether there's an overwhelming amount of people all on the same side of the trade.  In that case, the only way the price can go up is if Bitcoin is a government backed scam.  Which it seems to be, so you might be in luck.

EXACTLY, roach!!!!!!!

The whole fucking world is against you, and that is why you refuse to buy back all the BTC that you sold in the $700 price arena. 

By the time that you figure out that it is better to buy BTC rather than to continue to complain about its inevitable UPness, grandma surely won't be feeding you cookies and milk any longer (in her basement... should go without saying).

[Last of the V8s]

[jojo69]

well fuck

got steam working

got qt working

got armory working..yaay

all that took some learnin' to edit /etc/fstab to get the permissions right on my legacy FAT and NTFS volumes where all the data was

framerates were a bit down from the win7 build so I tried to install the amdgpu drivers...boots to blackscreen

At least I remembered about setting "nomodeset" in GRUB to recover from a bad video driver, but it looks like I am distro shopping again to find something where the drivers work right...

10 days to go

[psycodad]

how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.

And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard on it

i don't doubt that if you have addresses with which you will get in focus of authorities because you have an monthly income of <10k and you want to cash out an address with >500k on it. but if you are flying under the radar with small addresses you don't have to prove the origin of funds. and even if. I bought mining equipment in 2013 for what? to play SatoshiDice and lost all or either not.

When BTC goes 1mio, the tax authorities will have software that tells them exactly to which wallet an address holding coins belongs as bitserve already explained, there will be certainly no more "under the radar" by then latest. Some block explorers can do a good job on associating addresses to wallets already nowadays.
Also consider that when BTC goes to 1mio, you won't be able to cash out the smallest amount to fiat without KYC, I would consider that too.

Like bitserve I'd also strongly really recommend against such a 1000-split. Otherwise you need to go through a mixer or an exchange but these fees would kill your plan completely.

Writing from a tax paradise with regards to crypto coins it could be perceived as offensive and rude if I would say "just pay your taxes then", but it could save you some trouble and a lot of fees though I am not in your shoes and can't judge what taxes would eat away.

[mindrust]

Also consider that when BTC goes to 1mio, you won't be able to cash out the smallest amount to fiat without KYC, I would consider that too.

I don't understand this part. Explain please?

If 1 btc becomes $1m, then 0.001btc will be $1k. I am pretty sure you will be able to find someone who's going to accept that btc for physical cash.

[psycodad]

Also consider that when BTC goes to 1mio, you won't be able to cash out the smallest amount to fiat without KYC, I would consider that too.

I don't understand this part. Explain please?

If 1 btc becomes $1m, then 0.001btc will be $1k. I am pretty sure you will be able to find someone who's going to accept that btc for physical cash.

If you are referring to things like localbitcoins, then possibly you may be right. But I personally would bet that by the time BTC is 1mio we'll have all sorts of AML in every country that forbids these kind of P2P transactions, at least for amounts larger than say a few hundred USD.

In my country the amount limits for legal cash transactions will be again reduced soon, and the hawks among the legislators are up to reduce it further.

[mindrust]

Also consider that when BTC goes to 1mio, you won't be able to cash out the smallest amount to fiat without KYC, I would consider that too.

I don't understand this part. Explain please?

If 1 btc becomes $1m, then 0.001btc will be $1k. I am pretty sure you will be able to find someone who's going to accept that btc for physical cash.

If you are referring to things like localbitcoins, then possibly you may be right. But I personally would bet that by the time BTC is 1mio we'll have all sorts of AML in every country that forbids these kind of P2P transactions, at least for amounts larger than say a few hundred USD.

In my country the amount limits for legal cash transactions will be again reduced soon, and the hawks among the legislators are up to reduce it further.

Do you do KYC every time when you (assuming you are American) go to Europe for a vacation while converting your USD to EUR in exchange offices? I don't think so. (I don't know their limits though having a wild guess $1k is probably within their limits)

Why would they make a KYC law only for BTC?

[Hueristic]

Well shit not sure how this is going to pan out but maybe Power ISA will do.

The summary is this: Libre and Open contributors to RISC-V have been disregarded for several years. Long before I joined the RISC-V mailing lists, it was well-known within that small and tightly-knit community that if you were not associated directly with UC Berkeley, you were basically not welcome. Caveat: if you signed the NDA-like agreement which conflicts directly with, for example, the Debian Charter and the whole purpose of libre licenses, then you got a “voice” and you got access to the closed and secretive RISC-V resources and mailing lists.

The video and 3D acceleration opcodes will be entirely in the Power ISA. We are sick and tired of the RISC-V Foundation’s intransigence and blatant mismanagement. Therefore, we will comply to the absolute minimal letter with RV64GC for the benefit of our users, backers, and sponsors who will be expecting RISC-V Compliance. However, RISC-V and the RISC-V ISA itself will no longer receive the benefit of the advancements and innovation that we have received funding and support to develop.

https://www.crowdsupply.com/libre-risc-v/m-class/updates/nlnet-grants-approved-power-isa-under-consideration

https://nlnet.nl/project/Libre-RISCV/

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Writing from a tax paradise with regards to crypto coins it could be perceived as offensive and rude if I would say "just pay your taxes then", but it could save you some trouble and a lot of fees though I am not in your shoes and can't judge what taxes would eat away.

Well, if my coins are ever worth several million US dollars, I wouldn't mind paying my taxes and thus being able to spend the rest of my wealth without worrying about the tax man checking me out all the time. For example, assuming I end up holding the equivalent of $100m, I wouldn't mind at all paying even half of it ($50m) in taxes! If this means that I end up with $50m that I can freely and totally legally spend without worrying at all, I'm perfectly happy with that.

BTW, the above is purely hypothetical, I forgot my passphrase, all coins gone, now only have what's left in my Kraken account (around 1000 Doge I think)...

[mindrust]

[...]

Writing from a tax paradise with regards to crypto coins it could be perceived as offensive and rude if I would say "just pay your taxes then", but it could save you some trouble and a lot of fees though I am not in your shoes and can't judge what taxes would eat away.

Well, if my coins are ever worth several million US dollars, I wouldn't mind paying my taxes and thus being able to spend the rest of my wealth without worrying about the tax man checking me out all the time. For example, assuming I end up holding the equivalent of $100m, I wouldn't mind at all paying even half of it ($50m) in taxes! If this means that I end up with $50m that I can freely and totally legally spend without worrying at all, I'm perfectly happy with that.

BTW, the above is purely hypothetical, I forgot my passphrase, all coins gone, now only have what's left in my Kraken account (around 1000 Doge I think)...

I haven't really made my mind about taxes (sometimes i think it is theft, sometimes I think we need to pay taxes or else everything will fall apart. Can't decide.) though I am not sure if you would be OK when you see the amount they are going to ask from you.

I'll give you a hint. They'll ask at least 1/3. Most likely half.

I am no fucking way OK with this amount. NO. Fuckin. Way. (1/3, maybe but it is still going to make me sad and angry.)

[psycodad]

Also consider that when BTC goes to 1mio, you won't be able to cash out the smallest amount to fiat without KYC, I would consider that too.

I don't understand this part. Explain please?

If 1 btc becomes $1m, then 0.001btc will be $1k. I am pretty sure you will be able to find someone who's going to accept that btc for physical cash.

If you are referring to things like localbitcoins, then possibly you may be right. But I personally would bet that by the time BTC is 1mio we'll have all sorts of AML in every country that forbids these kind of P2P transactions, at least for amounts larger than say a few hundred USD.

In my country the amount limits for legal cash transactions will be again reduced soon, and the hawks among the legislators are up to reduce it further.

Do you do KYC every time when you (assuming you are American) go to Europe for a vacation and convert your USD to EUR in exchange offices? I don't think so. (I don't know their limits though having a wild guess $1k is probably within their limits)

Can't speak for the US, I am almost-EU situated. I haven't changed moneys for abroad recently, but I am pretty sure you'll have a hard time here changing $5000 to EUR in a bank or exchange office where you are not customer (hence fully identified). And it only gets worse these days.

What is now $5000 as limit will ony go lower quickly.
Cash is evil for most of the money economy. Just think about how often the butcher can go to the baker with the $20 cash you gave him for steaks. And how often the baker can come back to the butcher to buy again steaks (or buy services from you and you spend it again at the butcher). Right, endlessly, because $20 stay $20 nobody is taking a cut of 1-5%.
Now play this in your mind with credit cards, paypal, apple pay or whatever and you'll find that after a few times going back and forth all the money is at the payment provider because the fees ate all of the $20.

How can they force us into this scheme? Buy outlawing cash transactions step by step.

I have to add, when we talk about 1 BTC = 1mio USD I expect we are talking about 5 years +. And my point was merely to take the tendency that legal amounts for cash transactions are constantly lowered into Gyrsurs risk assessment when he plans such a step.

(off to watch Oilers vs Bruins)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Mainstream adoption - it’s coming!



Wolves vs Man Utd

[d_eddie]

Why would they make a KYC law only for BTC?

Maybe because btc is easier to conceal or move than money in banks or other paper assets.

[mindrust]

Why would they make a KYC law only for BTC?

Maybe because btc is easier to conceal or move than money in banks or other paper assets.

But we aren't talking about huge amounts. If somebody wants to cash out $1m worth of bitcoins in an exchange of course they would ask KYC for that. There needs to be no exception for that crap.

My point is why would they ask for KYC when someone wants to cash out $1k worth of BTC while they don't ask it when you convert your $1k to 1k€?

Doesn't make any sense.

edit: Alright, I guess the logic is here, someone can move to another country with $1m worth of coins and use different exchanges to get lots of $1k and then merge them. While they cannot do the same with FIAT. I guess...

[bitserve]

Why would they make a KYC law only for BTC?

Maybe because btc is easier to conceal or move than money in banks or other paper assets.

But we aren't talking about huge amounts. If somebody wants to cash out $1m worth of bitcoins in an exchange of course they would ask KYC for that. There needs to be no exception for that crap.

My point is why would they ask for KYC when someone wants to cash out $1k worth of BTC while they don't ask it when you convert your $1k to 1k€?

Doesn't make any sense.

The situation now is such that even if you go to a bank to exchange a single 500€ note into smaller denominations you need to be KYC'ed. Why would exchanging 500€ of BTC into FIAT be any different?

Same for exchanging $ to € in a bank.

Also any person that do manage/store lots of cash is susceptible to be investigated/questioned about the origin of all that cash. Same if it were a big stash of gold or basically any unexplained wealth. Why would BTC be any different?

Either Bitcoin fails and they won't care OR we will see way more strict KYC/AML rules enforced on it in the future. More so considering the lack of physical entity makes it much more susceptible to be "misused".

[Gyrsur]

very interesting discussion boys.

so act now. let your TREZOR's roast. split to 100,000 sats. fees are low.

EDIT: I will do a test the next days if it is possible with a TREZOR and with Legacy and SegWit addresses.