Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

#human activity#

I'm thinking about how to split 1 BTC for future use. if the price will go somewhere to the 1m level I will however be under the radar of large fiat tx monitoring (<10k EUR) by authorities if I have to transfer it to a marketplace.

I'm uncertain about to spilt 1 BTC to 1,000 (0.001) or 10,000 (0.0001) adresses and hold them on a TREZOR.

any thoughts on that from you guys?

EDIT: but I think split 1 BTC to 1,000 adresses (1,000 x 0.001) should be enough.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Address_reuse

 The cost is pretty low @ 1 sat per byte if you don't mind a few hours wait



 courtesy of https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/fee-calculator/

The cost per transaction is indeed very low now.
I am not that concerned about splitting my bitcoin stash into smaller amounts.
Coinjoin, Taproot, Dandelion and other privacy enhancing features will surely be widely available by the time I will spend my BTC.

(To the IRS guy reading this chat: this is highly hypothetical. I had bitcoins, but I lost my private keys on a boating accident).

  I'm not sure it's something I need to do but I keep it in the back of my mind simply because the last time we hit an ATH, fees got quite high.

 I'm going to buy a boat; an old, leaky, high density boat.

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[Gyrsur]

#human activity#

I'm thinking about how to split 1 BTC for future use. if the price will go somewhere to the 1m level I will however be under the radar of large fiat tx monitoring (<10k EUR) by authorities if I have to transfer it to a marketplace.

I'm uncertain about to spilt 1 BTC to 1,000 (0.001) or 10,000 (0.0001) adresses and hold them on a TREZOR.

any thoughts on that from you guys?

EDIT: but I think split 1 BTC to 1,000 adresses (1,000 x 0.001) should be enough.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Address_reuse

 The cost is pretty low @ 1 sat per byte if you don't mind a few hours wait



 courtesy of https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/fee-calculator/

The cost per transaction is indeed very low now.
I am not that concerned about splitting my bitcoin stash into smaller amounts.
Coinjoin, taproot, Schnoor signatures and other privacy mean hung feature will surely be widely available by the time I will spend my BTC.

(To the IRS guy reading this chat: this is highly hypothetical. I had bitcoins, but I lost my private keys on a boating accident).

same for me I was robbed on a India trip and lost my TREZOR to just gangsters.

[xhomerx10]

#human activity#

I'm thinking about how to split 1 BTC for future use. if the price will go somewhere to the 1m level I will however be under the radar of large fiat tx monitoring (<10k EUR) by authorities if I have to transfer it to a marketplace.

I'm uncertain about to spilt 1 BTC to 1,000 (0.001) or 10,000 (0.0001) adresses and hold them on a TREZOR.

any thoughts on that from you guys?

EDIT: but I think split 1 BTC to 1,000 adresses (1,000 x 0.001) should be enough.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Address_reuse

 The cost is pretty low @ 1 sat per byte if you don't mind a few hours wait



 courtesy of https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/fee-calculator/

The cost per transaction is indeed very low now.
I am not that concerned about splitting my bitcoin stash into smaller amounts.
Coinjoin, taproot, Schnoor signatures and other privacy mean hung feature will surely be widely available by the time I will spend my BTC.

(To the IRS guy reading this chat: this is highly hypothetical. I had bitcoins, but I lost my private keys on a boating accident).

same for me I was robbed on a India trip and lost my TREZOR to just gangsters.

 Fuckin thugs!

[bitserve]

how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.

And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard onto it

[jojo69]

(To the IRS guy reading this chat:

 Fuckin thugs!

.

[JimboToronto]

Still too many $10K+ bulltards though

 

[jojo69]

[bitserve]

Still too many $10K+ bulltards though

 

11651-11700      bitserve

[Gyrsur]

how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.

And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard on it

i don't doubt that if you have addresses with which you will get in focus of authorities because you have an monthly income of <10k and you want to cash out an address with >500k on it. but if you are flying under the radar with small addresses you don't have to prove the origin of funds. and even if. I bought mining equipment in 2013 for what? to play SatoshiDice and lost all or either not.

[jbreher]

Fees are low right now, but if Bitcoin grows fees with be high again. Maybe not that high as in Q4 2017, but still.

Maybe higher. Maybe much much higher.

[El duderino_]

Fees are low right now, but if Bitcoin grows fees with be high again. Maybe not that high as in Q4 2017, but still.

Maybe higher. Maybe much much higher.

time will tell, as for every aspect...

[realr0ach]

Trollgoossen, what do you think about this quantitative analysis?

- In Germany alone, the Jews were a tiny minority which, according to a 1933 census, was approximately 505,000 people

- An average body takes about three hours to burn completely, and that’s with today’s technology

- 6,000,000 bodies x 3 hours (with today’s cremation process) = 18,000,000 hours or 750,000 days or 2,054 years – in other words, the Germans would still be burning bodies of so-called Jewish victims, even if they were attempting to incinerate just 500,000 of them, let alone 6,000,000.

[jbreher]

@jbreher, why don't you give the game a try and a small text about why you think the guessed price you would give??

Thanks, mic. But no thanks.

As to why, it might be only because each time I logged on, I'd have yet another unread thread clamoring for my attention. Which in today's attention-starved environment, is reason enough.

[Gyrsur]

Fees are low right now, but if Bitcoin grows fees with be high again. Maybe not that high as in Q4 2017, but still.

Maybe higher. Maybe much much higher.

not this again!  

[bitserve]

how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.

And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard on it

i don't doubt that if you have addresses with which you will get in focus of authorities because you have an monthly income of <10k and you want to cash out an address with >500k on it. but if you are flying under the radar with small addresses you don't have to prove the origin of funds. and even if. I bought mining equipment for what? to play SatoshiDice and lost all.

It depends on what you plan to do.

Will you will you not want to cash out a significant ammount?

If you won't ever cash out, or only insignificant amount then yeah, whatever you do will probably irrelevant.

But, if you ever want to cash out a significant amount, ie: 50K, 100K, 500K, 1MM... You better be prepared to demonstrate origin of funds and, probably, full "chain of custody".

That you do it using small batches doesn't really matter. It is the yearly total what does.

KYC/AML will only get worse in the future. It is for that what you do want to be prepared.

As I said, there is some point in maintaning some separate BTC "accounts" but splitting 1 BTC into 1000 addresses is totally unjustified, cumbersome, expensive and probably doesn't offer any advantage. But hey, it's your BTC!  

[jbreher]

Fees are low right now, but if Bitcoin grows fees with be high again. Maybe not that high as in Q4 2017, but still.

Maybe higher. Maybe much much higher.

not this again!  

I agree. I'd rather the fees did not become astronomical again. But I'm pretty well sure that they will.

Seems you're making plans based upon such an expectation yourself, no?

[El duderino_]

@jbreher, why don't you give the game a try and a small text about why you think the guessed price you would give??

Thanks, mic. But no thanks.

As to why, it might be only because each time I logged on, I'd have yet another unread thread clamoring for my attention. Which in today's attention-starved environment, is reason enough.

One can only ask .....Just try to be a friendly WO ....

Have asked a few other non-players as well before so a Njet again

[Gyrsur]

how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.

And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard on it

i don't doubt that if you have addresses with which you will get in focus of authorities because you have an monthly income of <10k and you want to cash out an address with >500k on it. but if you are flying under the radar with small addresses you don't have to prove the origin of funds. and even if. I bought mining equipment for what? to play SatoshiDice and lost all.

It depends on what you plan to do.

Will you will you not want to cash out a significant ammount?

If you won't ever cash out, or only insignificant amount then yeah, whatever you do will probably irrelevant.

But, if you ever want to cash out a significant amount, ie: 50K, 100K, 500K, 1MM... You better be prepared to demonstrate origin of funds and, probably, full "chain of custody".

That you do it using small batches doesn't really matter. It is the yearly total what does.

KYC/AML will only get worse in the future. It is for that what you do want to be prepared.

to this differentiation of you I can fully agree now.

As I said, there is some point in maintaning some separate BTC "accounts" but splitting 1 BTC into 1000 addresses is totally unjustified, cumbersome, expensive and probably doesn't offer any advantage. But hey, it's your BTC!  

not less convinced of the opposite as some posts before.  



EDIT: man, can somebody tell Thermos he should switch to the feature back that if someone is editing his post and a other user quotes this unfinished post (because of editing) then always the newer version should be quoted and not the unedited. this sucks!

example post unedited: "to play SatoshiDice and lost all."

after editing and finished before the quoter finished his post: "to play SatoshiDice and lost all or either not."

but the quoted post still shows (although he finished his post later then the editor): "to play SatoshiDice and lost all."

it was better before!  

[Biodom]

<...>

I am sorry, but this one has unreliable data:

from 12/31/2014 closing at 320.19 to 12/31/2015 closing at 430.57 is ONLY 34.47% vs indicated (88.1%).
I did not bother to check other numbers.

“Don’t trust, verify”

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/1212755833249042432

Now I can't do the check, but I think it refers to this graph.

The guy you referenced just can't do maf.

APY (in %) calculated from monthly returns should be done according to a formula:

APY=[((1+r1)*(1+r2)*(1+r3).....*(1+r12))-1]*100

If monthly reward is, for example 15%, then you get 1.15 multiplier for that particular month, and if it is -20%, then 0.8 multiplier accordingly.
Source: https://financetrain.com/how-to-annualize-monthly-returns-example/

Putting in his monthly (which I don't know if they are right or not) gives me 37% (instead of 88.1) for 2015, which makes much more sense if you compare the EOY numbers.

The common mistake is to equate positive and negative returns.
For example, if you had a -50% month and then a +50% month, you are NOT back to where you were at the beginning, bit lost 25%.

[JayJuanGee]

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $7,346

Are we going bullish?

As long as we stay below $8.200 in january, i'd be bearish (short term).

And if we go above, would your guess then still be the same on that game??

This is a good question. To be true, i am bearish atm (fully since 11/2019), until after the halvening. That's why i decided to prepare for $5-$6k zones around end of Q1/2020.
If the price breaks the upper boundary of the downtrend channel, within january respectively (around $8.2k), i'd likely change my sentiment and i would have to admit that i chose the wrong bet for April 1st. Which would be the same "mistake" like in the last Q4 game, just the other way round.

EDIT: Why?
Because i was wrong too many times in the last two years, just because i didn't wait for confirmation of various buy or sell signals.

I am interested in your "edit" comment at the end bolded above.  Do you really believe that there is such a thing as "buy"/"sell" signals?  Wouldn't we be MOAR richie if we knew about such purported signals?  Surely, after the fact we know all kinds of fucking things about the existence of such 20/20 hindsight buy/sell signals, but I doubt that they are so damned clear while in the midst of the process that any of us are going to transition into MOAR richie rather than MOAR poor for our gambling upon such bullshit purported signals.    

Good luck with playing around with your purported "buy"/"sell" signals...., this time is different....  


 

 

Makrospex, since you're a noob, let me inform you that your main problem right now is not whether you're interpreting TA correctly or not, it's whether there's an overwhelming amount of people all on the same side of the trade.  In that case, the only way the price can go up is if Bitcoin is a government backed scam.  Which it seems to be, so you might be in luck.

EXACTLY, roach!!!!!!!

The whole fucking world is against you, and that is why you refuse to buy back all the BTC that you sold in the $700 price arena. 

By the time that you figure out that it is better to buy BTC rather than to continue to complain about its inevitable UPness, grandma surely won't be feeding you cookies and milk any longer (in her basement... should go without saying).