Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LUCKMCFLY]

A very interesting article about the bitcoin macro-trends and projections model.

we have now entered a new hodl zone, with the third halving upcoming in May 2020. Because the price (and BEAM Value) has been dropping while within the grey zone, but not below 0.07, this is great evidence of re-accumulation. There were re-accumulation phases at each start of the hodl zones in the past when price dropped again after a peak. The green buy zones are initial accumulation phases. Reaccumulation usually provides a second chance for late comers to buy at somewhat higher prices. This is good evidence that we are beginning to enter a bull market.

Each day MVOCD (blue line) is below Bitcoin price (black line), more Bitcoin days are being created than being destroyed, ie people are holding onto their Bitcoin because as a store of value they believe its price in the future will be more than it is today. They have given up the opportunity to sell Bitcoin today to instead hold it for the future — so we call this the opportunity cost.

Source: https://medium.com/@robertspigler/bitcoin-macro-price-projections-44cfd800d66a

[1713989847]

1713989847

[Paashaas]

Trolololo chart with 100trillionUSD's stock to flow model.

$100k BTC is not that far anymore, patience is a virtue.

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin's Taproot/Schnorr upgrade proposal is 'nearly ready' as it moves through developer feedback phase.

Taproot is expected to be bundled together with Schnorr, a related upgrade that seeks to enable signature aggregation and make Taproot’s implementation possible.

Right now, the Taproot/Schnorr soft fork – proposed in May by Bitcoin Core developer Pieter Wuille – is moving through the ecosystem feedback phase as developers recommend and review possible changes to the draft.

On Dec. 17, Wuille put out an update on the project during the final scheduled meeting of the Taproot review group, where he revealed that developers were finishing addressing all comments from the review and that the Taproot proposal was “nearly ready.”

The proposal moving forward is designed to save 30% to 75% in fee use and accelerate block validation by up to 2.5 times, Square Crypto product manager Steve Lee predicted during a presentation from last summer.

It's a process that has attracted interest and excitement from different quarters of the crypto ecosystem. Recent survey data collected by The Block that indicates that Taproot is high on the list of technological developments being followed.

[bitebits]

Some advice to the new bitcoiners, presuming we are in a cautious new bull market.

After each up there is a down. It makes you feel sick and you think next time it happens I sell to take some easy profit, these wild price movements are so predictable! And you might even profit from it and feel great: let’s do this again!

But then one day bitcoin does not go down, it just keeps on going up. Now you are holding a bag of fiat nervously in your exchange account waiting to re-enter. But bitcoin keeps on going up and finally you just FOMO back in: congrats you just bought the top and/or have substantially less bitcoins.

The above is not from personal experience since I am the laziest little investor / stubborn holder. But I have seen people come and go over the years for this very reason.

Throwing dollars at Bitcoin is easy, holding bitcoins is the hard part.
(for the record: holding means owning the bitcoin private keys)

[JSRAW]

^^ TD;LR of @bitebits's post

https://imgur.com/a/hm9BP50

[nutildah]

One of my favorite games for PC... The fights with the rebels is one of the funnest aspects of it. I used to make things unsavory just to create rebels to later quash. Elections are also fun... If you assassinate your rival during the election, most people don't seem to mind, then the next most likely contender takes their place. You can also have them assassinated, of course. I also like creating squalor-filled areas and butting them up against the mansions.

Bitcoin's Taproot/Schnorr upgrade proposal is 'nearly ready' as it moves through developer feedback phase.

There's a surprising lack of information about this on the forum, even in the Development & Technical Discussion section. The subject matter is a bit dry but understanding how it helps bitcoin evolve will help you counter shitcoiners when they tell you that "bitcoin is an ancient technology."

[mindrust]

Some advice to the new bitcoiners, presuming we are in a cautious new bull market.

After each up there is a down. It makes you feel sick and you think next time it happens I sell to take some easy profit, these wild price movements are so predictable! And you might even profit from it and feel great: let’s do this again!

But then one day bitcoin does not go down, it just keeps on going up. Now you are holding a bag of fiat nervously in your exchange account waiting to re-enter. But bitcoin keeps on going up and finally you just FOMO back in: congrats you just bought the top and/or have substantially less bitcoins.

The above is not from personal experience since I am the laziest little investor / stubborn holder. But I have seen people come and go over the years for this very reason.

Throwing dollars at Bitcoin is easy, holding bitcoins is the hard part.
(for the record: holding means owning the bitcoin private keys)

That's why you should never trade/sell your hodl stash.

You may want to create another separate stash for only that purpose and that's fine. You will probably end up with only FIAT in your hands when the bull arrives.

If one day you decide to sell some, you don't sell to buy back from a lower price.

You sell to enjoy your profits. You may be able to buy back your coins from a lower price but you shouldn't aim for that. You should aim to get your lambo, dream yacht, trophy wife, whatever.

[bitserve]

To be honest I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. Which, for me, could even be good as in not "having" to sell a big percentage of my stash because I assume (maybe wrongly) that lacking a "too bublish" pump the subsequent dump/downtrend/bear market would not hit as hard as previous times.

And then I start to wonder what others would think/do in that situation... I mean... If the extraordinary gains Bitcoin has given in the past were not there anymore... Would most of you guys keep holding/using it as a store of value or, on the contrary, would that make you cash out an even bigger part of your stash because you were mostly hodling in the expectation of awesome future profits?

Of course, no one can predict future results but... let's say Bitcoin does almost nothing after the halving... ie: it finish this year at $10K, then spends most of 2021 between $10K-$15K, then still sideways at around $15K for 2022 or even retraces some to $11K, etc....

What would you guys do? Keep buying? Just HODL? Sell a substantial part and move into other things? Sell all?

And what if year 2023 comes and Bitcoin has still not breached previous ATH not does it looks like it is gonna do it anytime soon?

Know what I mean? What would you guys do if/when the constant staircase growing of Bitcoin stagnates?

[JSRAW]

^^ Wait.... give it 10 mins or so, JJG typing..... i am waiting as well.

[somac.]

And then I start to wonder what others would think/do in that situation... I mean... If the extraordinary gains Bitcoin has given in the past were not there anymore... Would most of you guys keep holding/using it as a store of value or, on the contrary, would that make you cash out an even bigger part of your stash because you were mostly hodling in the expectation of awesome future profits?

Know what I mean? What would you guys do if/when the constant staircase growing of Bitcoin stagnates?

When it looks like bitcoin is not going to get the large 10-20x moves any more, everyone will be holding it and buying more each week. Why? Because the alternative will be owning fiat currency and anyone who understands the global economy and it's monetary system knows that holding fiat is a bad idea.

People who don't understand the global economy and it's monetary system, but who live in Iran, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc, also understand why you don't want to own fiat. Fiat is good for exchange of goods, definitely not hodling.

I think most long-term people in the crypto space are confused with what they are doing. They aren't investing, but rather saving for their future. Same as putting your money in any other asset that is fairly or under valued.

As long as I am earning an income through my labour, I will continue to save this income for the long-term in bitcoin, no matter the price.

[JayJuanGee]

To be honest I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. Which, for me, could even be good as in not "having" to sell a big percentage of my stash because I assume (maybe wrongly) that lacking a "too bublish" pump the subsequent dump/downtrend/bear market would not hit as hard as previous times.

Of course, we have to prepare for anything, but your scenario does not seem too likely.  Of course, we are likely to have lower percentages of gains...  Let's just start from 2012/2013, and that rise was well over 100x.  I would propose that the 2017 price rise was around 78x, so yeah, we could have a considerable reduction in the next price rise, maybe 20x to 30x or even smaller.  I doubt as low as 10x, but hey we have to prepare for less bullish scenarios, you are correct... even though you are coming off as a bit of a pessimist party poop.  

And then I start to wonder what others would think/do in that situation... I mean... If the extraordinary gains Bitcoin has given in the past were not there anymore... Would most of you guys keep holding/using it as a store of value or, on the contrary, would that make you cash out an even bigger part of your stash because you were mostly hodling in the expectation of awesome future profits?

Of course, there is going to be all kinds of variation here, especially depending on what stages guys are in... if guys are largely still in accumulation stage, and they have not finished that stage they will have to continue accumulating.

I might not be a very good example for your various hypotheticals, because I personally have already decided to go into a kind of cashing out of 1% every quarter, at some point in the coming years as long as BTC prices are above $5k.. but I can likely wait a few years too... at least tentatively that cashing out of 1% per quarter is what I am thinking based on current cash flows... but I also would not mind increasing my spending and my lifestyle consumption matters too...   so it is possible stagnating bitcoin could put some hampering on those considerations.

Of course, no one can predict future results but... let's say Bitcoin does almost nothing after the halving... ie: it finish this year at $10K, then spends most of 2021 between $10K-$15K, then still sideways at around $15K for 2022 or even retraces some to $11K, etc....

Probably would not affect me too much with those numbers.. I might just cash out 1% per quarter... or just hold off cashing out a bit longer.. depending on if I feel that I want to go beyond my current cashflows.

What would you guys do? Keep buying? Just HODL? Sell a substantial part and move into other things? Sell all?

Again, I am likely not a good example for this because I am looking at figuring out ways to spend all of my current cash flow.. which I am still NOT really doing.. and then increase spending in bitcoin, at some point... of course, I am tentatively thinking that if BTC prices go below $5k, then I would likely add new cash to my bitcoin holdings.

And what if year 2023 comes and Bitcoin has still not breached previous ATH not does it looks like it is gonna do it anytime soon?

Might have to adjust plans based on such negativity, and if BTC is not below $5k, might still sell some, but might decide to HODL instead, depending on the BTC price... if it is looking like it might go down, and it is only in the $10k arena, then likely just stick with the plan or just HODL... maybe even change my plan to buy more... and increase my threshold from $5k to $10k.. which would cause me to buy more.  

Know what I mean? What would you guys do if/when the constant staircase growing of Bitcoin stagnates?

Yep that is starting to sound like amongst the worser scenarios.. if bitcoin stagnates going towards zero... and does not look like it is going to recover... I think maybe I would just HODL.. Maybe not invest any more and so long as prices are above $5k, would just cash out 1% per quarter in accordance with the earlier threshold considerations.  Maybe you are thinking of a different audience for this hypothetical, anyhow?

^^ Wait.... give it 10 mins or so, JJG typing..... i am waiting as well.

Hahahahaha

You fuck, JSRAW...

Are you sure that you don't have a camera planted next to my computer.  

(WRONG.... Fake news!!!!!!   only took me 8.5 minutes to post mine after your post)

[mindrust]

If bitcoin doesn't break 15k in the next 2 years, it is still by far the best investment I've ever made till now. I'll have more than %100 profits in USD and no bank can give me that. Maybe stocks can, but I don't want to touch any legacy investing anymore after I've seen how easy it is to buy/hodl btc.

Not just that, you don't really own the stocks when you buy them. You don't have the keys. Your bank does. It is different with bitcoin.

Even if it never breaks $20k and keeps being around $10k, I'll keep buying. The only moment they can make me sell is when they make btc pretty overpriced and we can observe that with all these TA indicators like Mayer&Puell multiple ...

[Lambie Slayer]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[nutildah]

waitin' for bargains with the boys...

[makrospex]

Who programed our planets to move around the sun? Do you realize you are moving right now around the sun, even if you are siting behind your keyboard. The creator is the best programer of all time.

"The creator" turned out to be a translation error (intentional or not). It should be more something like "the creation", at best.
You better believe into Slartibartfast instead. (unless your not from norway, sorry...)
Existence is not simple, just because it's being looked at in a simple way.

My apologies to all religious believers.

Bitcoin: next few hours are critical  

[El duderino_]

waitin' for bargains with the boys...

Waiting for pumps with some peeps as well 

[makrospex]

waitin' for bargains with the boys...

Waiting for pumps with some peeps as well  

Volume slowly on the rise, sir. We seem to be quite on the edge of something. May it be a pump or dump, i'm finally in "bull mode".
I have to leave the house within an hour, that's when bigger moves usually happen.

[supremnoob]

No pain no gain, boyz

[mladen00]

Now is a right time for the bears to hibernate

[kurious]

Looking at lines and tea leaves (and stating the obvious):

I always watch the 200/50 MAs and where they're heading.  On the 1 day, it looks like we should be going gold again around March/April, just before the halving (surprise, surprise). This means a rise before then.



The wedge - which is descending and therefore ultimately bullish - is picking the recent (local) double bottom from the mid-2019 mini bubble and the descent from that high.

There can still be plunges lower within the wedge, but there is no doubt in my mind the break out will be up out of it.  The only question is how soon.  

EDIT: Apologies for the heresy of using Finex, but my stamp tab had fib lines all over it