Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/traders-await-futures-open-after-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html

Stocks fell sharply on Monday even after the Federal Reserve embarked on a massive monetary stimulus campaign to curb slower economic growth amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The S&P 500 dropped 8.14% shortly after the open, triggering a “circuit breaker” trading halt that will last for 15 minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.7%, or 2,250 points. The Nasdaq Composite slid 6.1%.

[1715308573]

1715308573

[Wekkel]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

https://images2.imgbox.com/a9/e4/GdfW8Qnp_o.png

The longer view.

We should not shy away from this but plan accordingly (not this exact scenario but the chance that Bitcoin will slumber for a while).

[rdbase]

first down, then up, then down 

Why you have to start with down first?  You negative nancy!!!!!!!!!!   

I am even more negative:

SHTF

Astute observers have been predicting the collapse of the system (including the global financial system) for about the past half-century.  Not “if”, but “when”.
If the current-events trend does not change soon (NOT the damn virus, but people’s reaction to it), well... you may wish that you had traded all of your government-issued toilet paper for literal toilet paper.  (Actually—for food, gold, tools, and weapons.)  Is this a good time to HODL fiat?

* nullius is bearish on government-issued currencies at a time when governments are in headless-chicken mode, and markets are in freefall.

Accumulating more Bitcoin right now is a hedge on the potential that S will not totally HTF.  In that case, you may well wish for assets in a form free from direct government control which (if you know what you are doing) is very easy to conceal, transport, and convey.  It is not alarmist to observe that things are already pretty bad in many places.
In case of total SHTF, neither government-issued currency nor the Internet will exist.  In that case, you would need the other side of that hedge:  You need to have spent at least the past few years quietly making the sorts of preparations that most people laugh at.  If you already did that, then you don’t need for me to tell you that now is not a good time to be competing with desperate people for more of things that you already wisely prepared.  Whereas if you didn’t, then starting that now is too late!  Don’t be another desperate headless chicken.  Just buy more Bitcoin, hope for the best... and if you die, at least you will die HODLing.
How is that for negativity?  :-)

Time to BuRn your fiat!

Coffee shops arent taking that shit money anymore. Starbucks even removing their chairs.
So they dont have customers lingering around or because they dont wipe properly with their gov't issued paper?
And I mean both TP&fiat.

[xhomerx10]

72 hours old:

https://val-media.net/video/48/the-corona-solution?channelName=5e6b9404a4da1

 Wish you would have used a tripod or even a table; the motion of the camera was making me feel ill so I couldn't watch it all.  Hope I gained enough of your wisdom to survive in the few minutes i was able to watch.

[bkbirge]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/traders-await-futures-open-after-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html

Stocks fell sharply on Monday even after the Federal Reserve embarked on a massive monetary stimulus campaign to curb slower economic growth amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The S&P 500 dropped 8.14% shortly after the open, triggering a “circuit breaker” trading halt that will last for 15 minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.7%, or 2,250 points. The Nasdaq Composite slid 6.1%.

And this in the article too, made me chuckle at our idiocracy ...

President Donald Trump said he was “very happy” with the announcement, adding: “I think that people in the markets should be very thrilled.”

[dragonvslinux]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

Does this means you didn't buy your coins back?

[Phil_S]

Even gold is going down.

But silver is doing much worse.

[mindrust]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

Does this means you didn't buy your coins back?

 :'-( No. Not yet.

[JSRAW]

72 hours old:

https://val-media.net/video/48/the-corona-solution?channelName=5e6b9404a4da1

 Wish you would have used a tripod or even a table; the motion of the camera was making me feel ill so I couldn't watch it all.  Hope I gained enough of your wisdom to survive in the few minutes i was able to watch.

Just listen may be?

[dragonvslinux]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

Does this means you didn't buy your coins back?

 :'-( No. Not yet.

Thought you put a limit buy back in at $4,500? Either way, while I don't think there is any rush in buying sub $5K, there's always that small chance that price bounces back strong at any time that everyone needs to be prepared for (just like breaking $3K like the chart you referenced or ones I published 6 months ago now: be prepared for either scenario).

Quick scenario; Imagine if tomorrow the stocks plunged back down off the back of today's dead cat bounce... what could happen to the price of Bitcoin is somewhat unpredictable, but I'd expect the inverse, like today's "decoupling"  

It's hard to deny that people are buying the dip right now on the smaller time-frames*, even if prices will eventually go lower or re-test $4.5K again:



Some nice volume coming to the buy sub $5K again by looks of it  
Either way: Don't panic buy or panic sell right now  

*Whether this is simply day traders or long-term investors remains unknown so far.

[nutildah]

Quick scenario; Imagine if tomorrow the stocks plunged back down off the back of today's dead cat bounce... what could happen to the price of Bitcoin is somewhat unpredictable, but I'd expect the inverse, like today's "decoupling"  

What stocks are you looking at? Stock market is down 10% today... The cat is still dead.

[El duderino_]

Where is the paashaas update @?

[JSRAW]

Where is the paashaas update @?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg54037172#msg54037172

P&S

[toknormal]

Recovery in progress.

[dragonvslinux]

Local bottom forming, and support strengthening, resistance remaining constant.
Breakout very likely, imho. But also a very good opportunity to counter-trade and dump coins on us.
  what's next  

Getting rejected by the 200 Week MA and volume point of control on the hourly time-frame isn't promising imo, it was looking like a nice breakout for a moment there.

...

I also feel looking at smaller time-frames when the Weekly candle is about to close in 10 hours is somewhat redundant...

Sorry, i wasn't too wise in choice of words and i second your opinion. Not really optimistic.
But on the smaller timeframes: I chose it for visualizing the narrowing spread. Trading activity seems to be quite low, something might be in the air, imho.

Forgot to reply yesterday (too drunk, housemates birthday ) but please NEVER apologize for posting your charts or ideas in this thread - especially if I disagree with it. There is little to no benefit in everyone believing the same thing will happen, especially when a majority are usually wrong.

For example, while me and exstasie disagreed a lot in the recent past during the mini-bull (dead cat bounce) last year, this was beneficial because we could both benefit from each others alternative perspectives when shared. In the past few months, we have been sharing the same opinions a lot more often, and therefore the only benefit is seeing the same picture from a slightly different angle - therefore there is almost no benefit to either of us for this, or anyone else for that matter, as it only entrenches our own perspectives further.

Hence, often a don't have a response to exstasie's TA, because all I would have to say is "I agree, thanks for sharing", which I find better said with merit than words.

TL:DR: Please continue posting your charts and opinions, especially if they contradict my opinions  

[serveria.com]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

No way this is happening... he got lucky with his last prediction ok (although not completely he promised down and then up) but it was pure luck. He's using this luck to bring BTC lower by posting these BS charts. This guy is just bitter and wants to restock for cheap. He hopes for 3 digit prices as he admitted he sold everything and is now broke. I'm sure if this chart will appear to be correct somehow (very unlikely) he will publish the next one with a target of say $200.    What a jerk!   

[Wekkel]

Its just a chart, not his 100% solid belief (nor the absolutely certain future).

You, Sir, need to close that lid, step out and enjoy the sun for a while 

[LUCKMCFLY]

Most bet that Bitcoin will continue to fall, but the market always shows the opposite of what the masses think, in every crisis there is a very good opportunity that very few see, and in Bitcoin there is now a great investment opportunity.

A really cool fractal

I added some context to it, comparing the virus with the 2008 crash

Gann analysis on the price and time aspects shows high confluence for this scenario with near ATH levels around EOY/NY

Kudo's to
@CryptoCapo_
 and
@kenzboard
 who showed me the fractal

Twitter: https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1239133425790930950

 And “Crypto Trader Digest” newsletter:

“As central bank printing presses switch into beast mode, Bitcoin should enjoy a nice run back through $10,000 towards $20,000 by year end. Each central bank will cut rates to zero and announce open ended quantitative easing.”

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/03/16/scarily-accurate-fractal-bitcoin-will-trade-20000-q1-2021/

[rolling]

All technical analysis is out the window in a "black swan" event like this. The bears were and still are wrong. They just got lucky there was a global event that helped them out.

Bitcoin crashed because the wall street types dumped it to cover margin calls on their other crap. They are dumping everything to prop up their leveraged garbage. Bitcoin held up pretty well given the payouts it had to make.

There is still ongoing daily demand for bitcoin and the daily supply is still getting cut in half very shortly. Everyone who dumped will still have to buy back in once they get their shit together. Don't give it back to them so easily!

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

This morning's stock futures plunge sparked another dip down under $4.5k but we're back up over $5k... currently $5015USD/$7002CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Hopefully those who panic sold a few days ago had enough sense to buy back in and not fall prey to the Kwuk/Roach syndrome of expecting a deeper dip.
____

Perhaps there should be a 3rd option in the poll:

- Coronavirus
- Bitcoin
- Panic