In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent.fist6-1.fna.fbcdn.net%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2Fs960x960%2F95627669_2785790698156185_6458989870919450624_o.jpg%3F_nc_cat%3D110%26_nc_sid%3D07e735%26_nc_ohc%3DNbDM9acaWMEAX9lMJtE%26_nc_ht%3Dscontent.fist6-1.fna%26_nc_tp%3D7%26oh%3D2c8790820fdbfbdd9ca5d56cf0b62c58%26oe%3D5ED57394&t=663&c=MUhQ7MmLzSuXUQ)
How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2Fs960x960%2F95340049_2785792621489326_8156749769687957504_o.jpg%3F_nc_cat%3D103%26_nc_sid%3D07e735%26_nc_ohc%3DRF_314pcXi4AX-2fKVn%26_nc_ht%3Dscontent-bos3-1.xx%26_nc_tp%3D7%26oh%3Dd947b983364e5c16de849ab030f4b42f%26oe%3D5ED2B7DE&t=663&c=ercqyq4b5KwhVg)
Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.
Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.
Corn's riding right on the yellow line about now.