Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

Bakkt grows custody business above 70 clients, says it has partnered with major financial institutions.

We’re also unlocking digital assets for institutional investors, and have onboarded more than 70 firms to the Bakkt Warehouse. The secure storage of digital assets is foundational to everything we do, whether it’s providing regulated bitcoin custody or supporting the delivery of the Bakkt® Bitcoin (USD) Futures & Options contracts. This commitment to custody is underscored by a new collaboration with the Digital Asset Risk Transfer team from Marsh, the world’s leading insurance broker. Beyond the $125M of insurance already in place at the Bakkt Warehouse, customers can now purchase more than $500M in additional insurance coverage, subject to underwriting criteria.

Furthermore, we’ve recently completed a SOC 1 Type I examination by KPMG and a SOC 2 Type II examination of the ICE infrastructure and enterprise-wide functions that the Bakkt Warehouse relies on by PricewaterhouseCoopers. These audited procedures and controls are essential to our institutional customers and led Tagomi, one of the most popular crypto prime brokers, to select Bakkt as their preferred bitcoin custodian. Tagomi customers can now custody with Bakkt for 0.1% per year while retaining access to best-trade execution and settlement via the Tagomi platform.

This brings in more speculators, but is needed for BTC ETF. And ETF is the last stage of the rocket

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[JayJuanGee]

I might need some pointers, regarding:

"how to NOT become too nervous during times in which the BTC price is going down - like it's falling off a cliff, and when I am assessing myself to be running out of money to buy more?"

hopefully the thing on your back that says "ACME - the name you can trust" has a parachute and not dirty socks.

other than that i just keep in the back of my mind thats its not really there.. ie lost.

but you already know that.

I have never parachuted, but I heard that there are two parachutes, which seems like a good idea, and probably a tactic that should be practiced in real life dangerous situations, too.

If you are considering that HODLers are less likely to get stressed out about paper losses when they are not really calculating how much "hypothetically" had been lost because of some "hypothetical" time that they could have sold at a higher price, then I suppose that makes sense in terms of causing a more sound psychological framework.

And, I supposed another angle could be considering:  "I am still in profits"   or "the loss could be worse"

Probably, there is going to continue to be certain degree of nervousness, but at some point, either the HODLer has shaved off some of the BTC profits and maybe put such profits in other assets that do not seem to be very closely correlated to BTC's price movements or the perception of the amount of the investment is so low that even something like a 85% price correction is NOT detrimental.

So, let's say for example, a BTC HODLer had invested 10% of his/her quasi investment assets into bitcoin in 2014/15 so total investment portfolio is $100k.  $10k in bitcoin (average price of $750/BTC - 13.3333BTC), $20k in various property interests, $10k in bonds, $10k in annuities, and $50k in equities.   

Between 2016 and 2017, the value of the whole portfolio goes to $379k by the middle of December 2017, yet that appreciation in value mostly came from BTC price appreciation to $262k (BTC prices of $19,666) while the remainder of the portfolio only appreciated to $117k  (** note for argument simplicity sake, I am giving lots of benefit of the doubt to other (traditional) investments to be generally holding constant or appreciating in value.. and I am also presuming that the quantity of BTC held has remained constant through these various possibly stressful periods)

When in late 2018, BTC plummeted 85% (BTC prices of $3,124) and arguably the other investments held constant, so the total value of the investment portfolio became $159k by the middle of December 2017, yet that decline in value mostly came from BTC price depreciation to $42k while the remainder of the portfolio stayed largely constant at $117k 

Surely, we might feel better on the day of the BTC halvening when BTC prices were up to $10k, but then plummeted down to nearly $8k, but even with $8k price evaluations for our BTC holdings, our total holdings would have been $224k with BTC value of $107k and traditional assets at $117k.

So, yes, if we HODL through these many volatile situations and try NOT to think about the possible negative situation (on paper) for too much time, then we should recognize that over time our overall investment portfolio is going up with the passage of time, and largely because our BTC investment continues, overall, to out perform various other aspects of our portfolio.

Must be noted that even with this hypothetical (which kind of reflects some of my own percentages), the stressful day of March 12 would have brought our BTC value to the similar valuation that it had been in the lows of late 2018, even if that valuation of sub $4ks and staying in the $4ks for BTC only persisted for a few days, and BTC HODLers could not have been sure about whether such BTC price corrections were going to continue and to cause more stresses.

Even though I am largely HODLing through these kinds of dramatic BTC price movements through the years, I am suggesting that I still get a bit nervous by them, even though BTC HODLing seems to have been amongst the best of portfolio management strategies because engaging in large sales of BTC or anything like that in order to attempt to time the BTC price movements may have caused even more difficulties and stresses unless there had happened to have been some luck involved in being able to lock in some additional profits from those kinds of selling higher and buying back lower kinds of plays.

[Toxic2040]

Good morning.

Do you remember what you were doing forty years ago today? Some of you might not..some might be to young..but I remember.

May 18th, 1980

I remember waking up that morning forty years ago today...and not in my usual manner..groggy...fumbling around for pants...stumbling towards the bathroom. No...that morning my eyes snapped open and for some reason I sat straight up in bed...looking around wildly thinking someone was in my room. As the moment of panic passed, faint sounds of my mom clattering around in the kitchen drifted up to me..calming me. That brief moment of terror I had felt was already half forgotten and I settled back into bed and drifted back to sleep.
  It must have been an hour or so later when I woke again hearing my sisters excited shrieks proclaiming it was snowing. I got up and dressed and went downstairs towards the kitchen and crossed through the living room I saw my dad standing out in the front yard. He was standing with hes back towards the house with a shovel in hes hand..staring towards the southeast. I paused for a second and watched him..watching the sky and again this feeling of unease passed through me.
  I turned and continued into the kitchen as the sounds of my mom and sister arguing drew me towards them. I heard my mom say 'No, your father said to stay inside, and thats final young lady!'. At that proclamation I turned and ran back through the living room and out the front door, racing to my father. I could here my mom yelling in the background telling me to come back inside. By that point however I was already approaching my dad and my mothers hysterics fading into the background. He turned as I got near and said words I will never forget..he said..'Son, there is going to be mischief and trouble today, we had best prepare for it'.  By now I had a chance to start observing what was happening around me and I started to notice large grey white flakes drifting down from the sky. Gradual but increasing rapidly..as I held out my hand and tried to catch one of these apparent snowflakes my dad said..'Well..we had best be about it..go get your jacket and all the towels you can find from the linen closet'. He turned and headed to the garage and finally I caught one of the 'snowflakes' in my hand, I tried to touch it with my other finger and it crumbled into fine power..but didnt melt away like a real snowflake should. I turned and ran after my dad asking what was going on and he said he wasnt sure but it looked like a big fire was near by and we had best prepare for it.




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the wall report

Bitcoin has consolidated down to around $9.6kish overnight on light volumes. Currently testing support on the cloud at $9,624.94 with more tests of $10k resistance likely this week. #dyor


1h


4h

#stronghands

[hv_]

Great.

Next they will go out for a coffee and try to pay using BitCoin

I hodl my popcorn for that, cause btcs don't work

 

[JayJuanGee]

Not gonna happen at this point. Too much liquidity in the system already and everyone knows that if stocks do fall, the Fed will step in to print more money to prop them back up.

Even if stocks did fall, BTC will fall along with them. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just refusing to learn from what happened last time around. The best argument I've heard about BTC not being correlated with the stock market is "it's a short term correlation." This may be true, but its a correlation nonetheless, that occurs during a critical time period.

But I do expect the impact of a stock sell down on the Bitcoin price to be less this time. They know how hard it can (will) rebound.

This could very well be the case.

Not sure that's true. Bitcoin is looking more and more like Gold, in that in extreme stress events it's correlated, because when people need cash in hurry they sell anything liquid to meet margin calls, but outside those extreme events, they have very little correlation. Gold sold off hard in 2008, but 6 months later was at all time highs, I would not be surprised to see stock fall heavily again, but bitcoin keep climbing. The Fed can't prop stocks up indefinitely, they can inject confidence, but I'm not convinced by the whole stock market is separate from the economy thing that has been going round. We're still in a deflationary environment, I expect the dollar and bitcoin will go up, stocks will test new lows within a month.

the fed and stockmarket run on hopium, and how long that that lie last? but i see your point, they will do anything to keep the stock market going as pretty much everything in the usa rides on the stock market.

bitcoin may fall along with stocks to a point but in my case when i suddenly need a largish amount fiat for whatever reason (pandemic? yeah right what are the odds of that... oh wait..) i tend to sell off my different classes of stuff (not sure what to call "classes" as i am not a financial guy, i pay people for that) equally if at all possible.

but wtf do i know all i can say for certainty is bitcoin has been very kind to me.

Are you suggesting that sometimes you will try to follow Gresham's law, vapourminer, meaning that you speculate that bitcoin is the more sound of the monies, and you tend to consider whether to sell other kinds of monies / assets before selling any of your bitcoin?

I understand that if you are already more appreciated in bitcoin, and bitcoin ends up comprising way more of the value of your various assets, then you might end up shaving off some bitcoin rather than selling some of the less valuable monies/assets, because largely you are somewhat over-allocated in bitcoin relative to the other assets/monies because bitcoin has gone way up in its value compared with the other assets.

I believe that a decent number of longer term bitcoin HODLers might be perceived as potentially NOT following Gresham's law because they do not really mind selling some of their BTC here and there along the way, and likely an explanation for that willingness to sell some of their BTC, even though it is the more valuable asset/money has to do with the value of their BTC holdings relative to the value of their other assets being way disproportionately high, mostly because of BTC's ongoing great appreciation in value (when we zoom out long enough).

[...] and nobody's got time for dat.

well.. ya know.. if perhaps you could cut back just a wee tad on the word count we would have more..

never mind

Hahahahaha

You feeling crowded out.

Infringed upon?

Too many words to read?

Stressful?

Pobrecito.  


I could consider "working on" my "issue".......






considering ... considering... considering....














conclusion:  probably not.


 

[hv_]

Money just has to function as cash, or its just not better than gold

[jbreher]

Now, let me explain to all of you why the Swedish government is not closing down society and quarantining people/closing of areas.

This is a little known fact outside Sweden, and it rarely comes up in the debate.
Neither the Swedish government nor the Swedish parliament has the authority to do that.
The Swedish constitution guarantees all citizens the right to free movement in peacetime, no exceptions but one, people with a dangerous contagious disease can be forcefully quarantined according to the contagious disease act. But that only applies to specific individuals.

A hearty tip of the hat to the Swedes for adhering to their written law. Lord knows we Americans abandoned any such fidelity about a century ago.

And here’s to wishing you a full and speedy recovery.

GTFOH jbreher...

WTF are you spouting Jeegs? Firstly, I am speaking of the Supreme Law of the Land -- and the relation between the Swede's to theirs, and we to ours. I salute them for their adherence to written law, and I bemoan us for our clear abandonment of ours.

Those kinds of original intention argument frameworks are frequently used to perpetuate superficial and nonsensical generalizations, and nobody's got time for dat.

You know what nobody has time for? Trying to figure out what applicable law is, once the fundamental -- even Supreme -- Law of the Land has been ignored.

You wanna ignore the Constitution, just fuck right off. If (the collective) you had the balls to stand by your (collective) idiotic position, you'd invoke the Amendment process. Like the very one outlined for that very purpose within the Constitution itself.

[hv_]

If you are young and broke but not a complete moron, learn miniscript. Do it right now, be earning 150,000 next year.
then stack sats

https://jimmysong.substack.com/p/miniscript-and-its-importance-bitcoin
https://youtu.be/CKyNqV3Ioqo Block Digest #220 - Make Bitcoin Magic Again

There's another gem of an article from Gilles Cadignan buried at the bottom of that one, that reiterates why Bitcoin is the only crypto one needs:

https://medium.com/@gillesCadignan/the-other-bitcoin-standard-226e743687dd

True, it's never good idea to try to reinvent the wheel again,

So I stay with pure BitCoin, that can do all and even smart conracts better than eth or other shittokens just as it was designed, but true, you need to do real work to make that happen.

All altcoiners just have been out for the low hanging fruits


Now do all what the globe needs on BitCoin, compliant

[Biodom]

The FED announced that GDP will shrink with 30% in the US.

SPX the next day: opening upside with a gap  

It reminds me of the stock market the day that Hurricane Katrina (2005) landed: stocks shot up big time right in the face of calamity.

This ain't your daddy's stock market anymore. Not since a long time.

If Bitcoin acts 'correlated', let the $10k hurdle fall....  

I thought it is more like 40-42%, but who is counting?
We are in bizarro world anyway.
Watched the first episode of "Upload" yesterday.
Almost made me puke at some happenings, but the idea that we can adjust the world with something resembling a rheostat-pretty much a current folly.

[hodl_2015]

I've quit drinking beer for near a week now. Have shed close to 8 lbs since then.

Health first, weight second. It's not unhealthy to deduct weight at the same or even slower rate as it was added. I love tea and went from 5 cubes/cup to 0 sugar/cup, with green teas as in-between step. Keep trying new stuff when the tea gets boring. As long as it tastes ok you can throw in anything, there is no hard line between tea and soup. Recent favorite: ginger tea with a small pinch of ground black pepper. no need the filter the pepper, it mostly stays near the bottom of the pot or cup. fine sliced garlic works too, depending on level of social distancing...  I'm now working on missing minerals that where causing nerve and brain issues. It takes quite a bit for searching and trail and error to recognize the signs early and learn to pick the right food to fix it asap, but much more pleasant than just feeling grumpy until it sorts itself out. I now get totally wasted after a single 2% beer. (this is totally on-topic for witnessing many future halvings)

[JayJuanGee]

Now, let me explain to all of you why the Swedish government is not closing down society and quarantining people/closing of areas.

This is a little known fact outside Sweden, and it rarely comes up in the debate.
Neither the Swedish government nor the Swedish parliament has the authority to do that.
The Swedish constitution guarantees all citizens the right to free movement in peacetime, no exceptions but one, people with a dangerous contagious disease can be forcefully quarantined according to the contagious disease act. But that only applies to specific individuals.

A hearty tip of the hat to the Swedes for adhering to their written law. Lord knows we Americans abandoned any such fidelity about a century ago.

And here’s to wishing you a full and speedy recovery.

GTFOH jbreher...

WTF are you spouting Jeegs? Firstly, I am speaking of the Supreme Law of the Land -- and the relation between the Swede's to theirs, and we to ours. I salute them for their adherence to written law, and I bemoan us for our clear abandonment of ours.

Those kinds of original intention argument frameworks are frequently used to perpetuate superficial and nonsensical generalizations, and nobody's got time for dat.

You know what nobody has time for? Trying to figure out what applicable law is, once the fundamental -- even Supreme -- Law of the Land has been ignored.

There are all kinds of systems in place that are constantly trying to both figure out applicable law and even disputing about applicable law.


There are also all kinds of systems that try to avoid getting tangled in disputes because some value is given to going along and getting along, and leaving the battles to others.

Just because you might consider yourself in one category, you likely should appreciate that there are a variety of perspectives, and frequently individuals will change their perception of their situation or even their involvement in battles and whether they believe that they or their circumstances warrant their involvement.

You wanna ignore the Constitution, just fuck right off.

You are good at creating strawman arguments and then winning such arguments.

Congratulations on your Pyrrhic victory.

If (the collective) you had the balls to stand by your (collective) idiotic position, you'd invoke the Amendment process. Like the very one outlined for that very purpose within the Constitution itself.

Surely, you are passionate about this made-up meandering venture, and hopefully, you realize that there are all kinds of laws and disputes, and only a small fraction of them end up either raising constitutional questions or constitutional amendment questions, so go on, argue your abstract whole-cloth fabricated nonsense with ur lil selfie.      

 

[Raja_MBZ]

Faketoshi Fakepotty

[Ibian]

Negative interest has just been instituted in danish banks.

[hodl_2015]

Negative interest has just been instituted in danish banks.

What interest are we talking about here? they have been doing negative mortgages since august 2019:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage

[Tash]

A truly bizarre virus it hops from place to place.
If this continues, election want be necessary.





Tether supply running amok.

[Last of the V8s]

Yeah I can't muster a care either. They are pretty tiny.

[Cryptotourist]

Yeah, like the last "accidental" freeze on 12th March, when the shorter manipulators weren't allow to take profits.

More like a kill switch, followed right after the rekt button, but I'm pretty sure someone took profits.

The day Bitmex is closed will be the best day ever for Bitcoin.

True dat, but unfortunately for the time being, I feel that there will always be, a Bitmex type of exchange.

I don't want to "imagine."  Makes me feel disconnected.  

Wow JJJJJJJ.
I confirm your admission.

Great update btw.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.

[gentlemand]

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.

I know she never returned your Harry Potter lunch box, let alone signed it, but she's a busy woman. You're bigger than this.

[Ibian]

Negative interest has just been instituted in danish banks.

What interest are we talking about here? they have been doing negative mortgages since august 2019:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage

It didn't say how much the minus interest would be, just "negative". It applies to amounts over $36325 in the case of the bank my parents use (assuming they have a "nemkonto", a specific danish instrument that would be of no interest to elaborate on (and otherwise to any amount)).