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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9%)
8/4 - 16 (13.1%)
8/11 - 7 (5.7%)
8/18 - 6 (4.9%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 73 (59.8%)
Total Voters: 122

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26486500 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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May 18, 2020, 09:43:07 PM
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Bitcoin tx fees are spiking... hopefully the miners aren't trying to artificially lift the fees again.   Roll Eyes

We really need more competition in Bitcoin mining.
"From April 11 until May 14, Bitcoin (BTC) transaction fees increased by more than 1,250% from $0.38 to $5.16.
While Bitcoin transaction fees have since fallen by 33.3% to sit at roughly $3.44 as of this writing, fees have increased by 36.5% since the block reward halving on May 11.
The average cost of executing transactions on the Bitcoin network has increased by more than 800% in just one month, with May posting the highest transaction fees since July 2019 so far.
Fees are up by more than one-third since the halving, which precipitated an increase in transaction costs of 105% over three days."

source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-transaction-fees-are-up-800-in-one-month

I remember before the halving paying the $0.38 to send over 0.08btc. It was a super fast send too receiving it within 5 minutes!
Just now sent 0.0579btc with a 0.000616btc miners fee $5.96 at preev rate and confidence rating is under 29% for the transaction which I sent 33 minutes ago. Not one confirmation yet.
And if it just like before the weekend when price of BTC was surging nearer to $10k price, where everyone and their grandmothers are trying to send their bitcoin to their exchange wallets Cheesy, then I wont expect it to confirm with 3 hours from now. Where the send I did on friday had a over 94% confidence rating but still took over 3 hours to get 1 confirmation on the blockchain. Embarrassed

Current recommended fee - 158 sat/byte
It’s butthurt miners absolutely fuming at the block reward halving so they’re prioritising high fee transactions to try & make some money back. People are paying higher & higher fees to try & get a quick confirmation.



Blocks are being solved a lot slower since the halving. This is causing a backlog in the mempool which has been steadily growing. I guess a few miners have switched off which is slowing the chain down until the next difficulty adjustment. That adjustment looks like it will be some time tomorrow evening and is probably in the region of a 5% reduction. Hopefully this will speed the finding of blocks back up and we can work through the backlog and finally get the fees back under control.
At least that's how it looks to me. We are currently 100MB worth of backlog or around 75 blocks.

Edit:- lol 3 blocks just found in the last 10 mins.
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May 18, 2020, 10:13:22 PM

Bitcoin tx fees are spiking... hopefully the miners aren't trying to artificially lift the fees again.   Roll Eyes

We really need more competition in Bitcoin mining.
"From April 11 until May 14, Bitcoin (BTC) transaction fees increased by more than 1,250% from $0.38 to $5.16.
While Bitcoin transaction fees have since fallen by 33.3% to sit at roughly $3.44 as of this writing, fees have increased by 36.5% since the block reward halving on May 11.
The average cost of executing transactions on the Bitcoin network has increased by more than 800% in just one month, with May posting the highest transaction fees since July 2019 so far.
Fees are up by more than one-third since the halving, which precipitated an increase in transaction costs of 105% over three days."

source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-transaction-fees-are-up-800-in-one-month

I remember before the halving paying the $0.38 to send over 0.08btc. It was a super fast send too receiving it within 5 minutes!
Just now sent 0.0579btc with a 0.000616btc miners fee $5.96 at preev rate and confidence rating is under 29% for the transaction which I sent 33 minutes ago. Not one confirmation yet.
And if it just like before the weekend when price of BTC was surging nearer to $10k price, where everyone and their grandmothers are trying to send their bitcoin to their exchange wallets Cheesy, then I wont expect it to confirm with 3 hours from now. Where the send I did on friday had a over 94% confidence rating but still took over 3 hours to get 1 confirmation on the blockchain. Embarrassed

Current recommended fee - 158 sat/byte
It’s butthurt miners absolutely fuming at the block reward halving so they’re prioritising high fee transactions to try & make some money back. People are paying higher & higher fees to try & get a quick confirmation.

Edit - mempool is massive.
48,004 unconfirmed transactions, I’ve seen a lot more though during the spam attacks a few years ago.

Hmm getting close to pushing me on the lightning train, when is Andreas book on lightning coming out? Guessing a lot of people in the same boat with me, soon won't be able to afford to not use lightning
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May 18, 2020, 10:34:32 PM




cat rides alligator across river
1h



testing resistance to find support
4h
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May 18, 2020, 10:41:37 PM

A truly bizarre virus it hops from place to place.
If this continues, election want be necessary.





This probably correlates with an average March-April temperature if anything else.
March is warm in TX (and in FL, AZ, etc) already and it is known that temp affects R naught negatively. LA might be an outlier from the trend.
Just a thought.

Show me population densities. Apples to oranges

Corona could give less than two shits whether republican or democrat.... and our lil buddy, aka bitcoin, feels the same way about partisan baloney... 

Furthermore every fucking state has been engaging in various piss poor efforts at shutting down and/or targeted strategies, so it is going to take a decently long time to compile information and sort the wheat from the chafe in terms of figuring out what has been going on and what has been effective, with also some elements of chance and unknowns mixed in the data and the assessment of the data, too.
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May 18, 2020, 11:05:41 PM

the fed and stockmarket run on hopium, and how long that that lie last? but i see your point, they will do anything to keep the stock market going as pretty much everything in the usa rides on the stock market.

bitcoin may fall along with stocks to a point but in my case when i suddenly need a largish amount fiat for whatever reason (pandemic? yeah right what are the odds of that... oh wait..) i tend to sell off my different classes of stuff (not sure what to call "classes" as i am not a financial guy, i pay people for that) equally if at all possible.

but wtf do i know all i can say for certainty is bitcoin has been very kind to me.

Are you suggesting that sometimes you will try to follow Gresham's law, vapourminer, meaning that you speculate that bitcoin is the more sound of the monies, and you tend to consider whether to sell other kinds of monies / assets before selling any of your bitcoin?

I understand that if you are already more appreciated in bitcoin, and bitcoin ends up comprising way more of the value of your various assets, then you might end up shaving off some bitcoin rather than selling some of the less valuable monies/assets, because largely you are somewhat over-allocated in bitcoin relative to the other assets/monies because bitcoin has gone way up in its value compared with the other assets.

i definitely consider bitcoin more sound than fiat, and that viewpoint has really been driven home as of late. but i really just do my own thing financially. which may not be smart but has served well enough.

basically if i need x amount of fiat money i will simply divide by n, n being the "classes" in my mind. those classes in my mind dont really correlate with traditional categories and have changed over time as i learn more about it or simply adjust based on past and what i consider potential future returns.

now bitcoin has been by far the best performing class and that means that means if im pulling say 10k USD from the bitcoin "class" its generally taken less bitcoin each time as i try to have enough fiat reserve to ride out the smaller dips and downtrends (a couple years worth of fiat have worked out) and be able to (more or less) pick decent point to sell. i do that by setting goals with laddered sell prices on the exchanges. but i also have to pick a certain date (several actually, like say a 1 month period divided into four one week periods). at each point if i havent made the price i want i still sell (in this example) 1/4th of my fiat goal, so 2500 USD , whatever that happens to be in corn at that time. this way i dont get stuck at the end if the price of corn has just gone down during that cashout period. basically i have DCAd my way out.

now this selling of bitcoin is mainly a habit from getting in this in 2011 when the possibility of bitcoin failing was much higher and i am a creature of habit and limited learning capacity so i do what has worked in the past with the least risk to my overall financial ability.

if any of that makes sense. which i certainly dont expect it to for others as i am not known for making sense or following best practices.

Largely makes sense to me... a kind of reverse DCA withdrawing that might also involve some attempts at reallocating away from bitcoin that causes you retrospectively to tentatively conclude that over the years (and maybe even continuing to date) you may have been withdrawing from BTC at a bit higher levels than what others would do, but overall you have a decent amount of BTC, so it is not like you are likely to run out soon or NOT have any, even if BTC prices go shooting up.

No problem with any of that, especially if you are overall comfortable with it, and may even decide to tweak your strategy at some point (if you get around to it)... hahahahaha


---
so i guess to me, buying corn is the 1st class of asset that i top off when i get the chance. thats the main point and far more important.

Maybe in the end, if you are both buying and selling BTC, in the end, you are NOT really doing anything much different than any other longer term BTC HODLer, even if your description is a bit different.. but in the end, there might not be a large material difference because you are both skimming off from time to time and buying from time to time and some of that might coincide with where the BTC price is at and other times it merely coincides with if you have dollar needs or not.

selling wise i have to treat corn just like any other asset. in my mind thats just the way i do it. bitcoin is both a investment and a tool to meet goals. i use it like any other tool. but it is the best tool ive ever seen.

You are a stubborn one, so probably some of your following of Gresham's law happens to be more subliminal rather than your lame attempts at equality.... hahahahaha   Tongue Tongue Tongue (hate to say that you were starting to sound a wee bit like searing for a while, there... with your seemingly both loving and hating of bitcoin at the same time.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy)

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May 18, 2020, 11:33:16 PM

selling wise i have to treat corn just like any other asset. in my mind thats just the way i do it. bitcoin is both a investment and a tool to meet goals. i use it like any other tool. but it is the best tool ive ever seen.

You are a stubborn one, so probably some of your following of Gresham's law happens to be more subliminal rather than your lame attempts at equality....  (hate to say that you were starting to sound a wee bit like searing for a while, there... with your seemingly both loving and hating of bitcoin at the same time.

stubborn? errr yeah, heh.  basically i have stuck to the plan i made many years ago when i got into bitcoin. and im more on a glide path right now. which is going to be a different strategy than those who are climbing.

but i have reallocated the percentage of these "classes" over the years too, and bitcoin has been much more prominent of late. both from a sound money point of view and a ridiculously preforming asset/investment. if push comes to shove, bitcoin will be the last thing to sell if it comes to that.

however as much as i believe bitcoin is the future of money/wealth/store of value/whatever you want to call it i do live in the present. and i do realize that my "plan," while it has worked in the past, may need drastic revision at any point.

never stop learning.
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May 18, 2020, 11:40:26 PM

Anything that adds up to being good for Bitcoin is welcome.

Top 3 Reasons Gold (XAUUSD) Is Ready to Set a New All-Time High

Quote
Here are the top three reasons why gold (XAUUSD) is poised to set a new all-time high, and how many of the same reasons that make the precious metal exceptionally bullish could eventually bode well for Bitcoin as well.



Quote
The only asset that theoretically offers more trust, is Bitcoin, due to a lack of a third-party controlling the decentralized, digitally scarce asset.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/05/18/gold-xauusd-all-time-high/
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May 19, 2020, 12:10:17 AM
Last edit: May 19, 2020, 12:26:10 AM by Hueristic

A truly bizarre virus it hops from place to place.
If this continues, election want be necessary.






Only retards make charts (data sets) with completely unrelated metrics.

And the only ones dumber than they are are the ones who believe those metrics correlate.
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May 19, 2020, 12:15:15 AM

selling wise i have to treat corn just like any other asset. in my mind thats just the way i do it. bitcoin is both a investment and a tool to meet goals. i use it like any other tool. but it is the best tool ive ever seen.

You are a stubborn one, so probably some of your following of Gresham's law happens to be more subliminal rather than your lame attempts at equality....  (hate to say that you were starting to sound a wee bit like searing for a while, there... with your seemingly both loving and hating of bitcoin at the same time.

stubborn? errr yeah, heh.  basically i have stuck to the plan i made many years ago when i got into bitcoin. and im more on a glide path right now. which is going to be a different strategy than those who are climbing.

I was attempting to razz you a little bit with strong language, and surely, you do seem to be less in an accumulation stage, so surely there can seem to be contradictions in an approach that has gotten past the early accumulation stages, which you probably did most of that many years ago... .. and even I have largely been in a maintenance stage since about 2017, even though there may be some times that I accumulate or inject a bit more value, too... and also there are times that involve liquidation, too, and it is not exactly fitting into a description of a system that is weighted in any specific direction.. , but instead a combination of factors.. that should be accounted for differently from someone who still had not reached his/her target BTC accumulation levels.


but i have reallocated the percentage of these "classes" over the years too, and bitcoin has been much more prominent of late. both from a sound money point of view and a ridiculously preforming asset/investment. if push comes to shove, bitcoin will be the last thing to sell if it comes to that.

Sounds like a crude and real world description of Gresham's law combined with reallocation motivations.


however as much as i believe bitcoin is the future of money/wealth/store of value/whatever you want to call it i do live in the present. and i do realize that my "plan," while it has worked in the past, may need drastic revision at any point.

never stop learning.

Fair enough.  If all of a sudden, some very large and unanticipated expense rolled into your door.. you might have to say fuck.  And, you might have liquidate a decently large portion of your bitcoin's even though it was either last or towards the end of you liquidation list.

Nice for us to have those kinds of options, even though they do not necessarily resolve all issues that might end up coming in our direction.. including some major issues that could undermine our bitcoin stash, too..
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May 19, 2020, 12:27:26 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

A truly bizarre virus it hops from place to place.
If this continues, election want be necessary.






Only retards make charts (data sets) with completely unrelated metrics.

And the only ones dumber than they are are the ones who believe those metrics correlate.

Louisiana is not a democratic state, lol.
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May 19, 2020, 12:47:32 AM

mini-Bart?
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May 19, 2020, 01:36:31 AM



Current recommended fee - 158 sat/byte
It’s butthurt miners absolutely fuming at the block reward halving so they’re prioritising high fee transactions to try & make some money back. People are paying higher & higher fees to try & get a quick confirmation.

Edit - mempool is massive

this is precisely how markets work, and saving us from chain freeze

This is true but these sudden spikes can catch you out.
I was sending my cousin some small amount in bitcoin for some silver rounds he had dropped off ( I am just trying to get him into bitcoin a bit. I know he will start collecting it and long term it is going to be better than him only stacking silver )

I left it in default settings on electrum and the fee must have shot up so I didnt get even 1 confromation for many hours.
Didn't think it would work and someone said it will just be forgotten in the end and will not go through. I sent him it again with a far larger fee. Now he got them both. Says he wants payment in bitcoin everytime now:)
I said he can keep it. I had a very good couple of weeks on just one alt coin that I didnt buy very long before and will be heading for near on 2btc soon. Crazy times.

As a quick question are the traders on this thread expecting low 8's again before going past 10.2? And if we go past 10.2 the next hard resistance will be at low 14s? Considering a tiny gamble now I had a good win.


 


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May 19, 2020, 01:41:15 AM

A truly bizarre virus it hops from place to place.
If this continues, election want be necessary.






Only retards make charts (data sets) with completely unrelated metrics.

And the only ones dumber than they are are the ones who believe those metrics correlate.

Louisiana is not a democratic state, lol.


It will be next election. Lol

They probably went by the current Gov. rather than how they voted in the presidential.
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May 19, 2020, 03:51:20 AM
Last edit: May 19, 2020, 04:24:11 AM by Paashaas
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1), DaRude (1)

Coronavirus Cases: 4,893,260. Deaths: 320,173. Recovered: 1,907,992.

- Global epicentre currently located in Latin America.

- India Coronavirus infections surge past 100,000, deaths top 3,000.

- Brazil passes Italy in confirmed cases.

- Russia’s southern region of Dagestan reported 3,460 cases.

- South Africa reports highest daily increase in cases.

- Qatar reported 1,364 new cases, tightened restrictions on commercial activities on Monday, ordering all shops to close until the end of the month.

- China shuts down Jilin and Shulan as new outbreak hits these cities.

- Mexico begins reopening the economy despite Covid-19 carnage.

- 36m Americans now unemployed as another 3m file for benefits.

- Poland will close schools until the end of the school year.

- The UK is one of the worst hit countries with the highest death toll in Europe so far.

- Japan lifted state of emergency across a large part of the country, but said the biggest urban centers of Tokyo and Osaka will remain under restrictions until there is a convincing containment.

- Covid-19 has been detected in one of the camps in southern Bangladesh that are home to more than one million Rohingya refugees. 60,000 to 90,000 people are jammed into each square kilometre.

- Spain and UK quarantines overseas travellers.

- A dog and three cats in the Netherlands have been infected with Corona.

- Australia slowly relaxes lockdown, Victoria battles Corona clusters.

- Sao Paulo's hospitals reached 90% capacity and are near collapse.

- India extends lockdown.

- France closed seventy schools after one week it re-opened.

- English Premier League soccer teams will begin practicing in small group sessions.

- Chile's poor clash with police amid concerns over food shortages in outskirts of Santiag.

- Coronavirus crushes Asia’s garment industry.

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May 19, 2020, 04:01:59 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1)

[...] I left it in default settings on electrum and the fee must have shot up so I didnt get even 1 confromation for many hours.
Didn't think it would work and someone said it will just be forgotten in the end and will not go through. I sent him it again with a far larger fee. Now he got them both. [...]


Let it take a day or so to confirm, there are mempool dips during the day. Bitcoin got you spoiled.

And activate replace-by-fee when using Electrum. This allows updating the fee after the transaction was broadcast if it turns out that the first estimate was insufficient. The setting can be found at Tools > Preferences > Fees > Enable Replace-by-Fee.
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May 19, 2020, 04:13:09 AM

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.
She has millions of followers so look at the positive and take this as a free publicity. who knows if some of her followers might end up buying some BTC.
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May 19, 2020, 05:31:40 AM

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.
She has millions of followers so look at the positive and take this as a free publicity. who knows if some of her followers might end up buying some BTC.

Pretty much everyone knows about bitcoin, it didn't help that all the replies were retarded. But it doesn't matter, the next era of bitcoin will be because its necessary, not because of publicity, or speculation, or technical curiosity like previous era's.
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May 19, 2020, 05:35:26 AM

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.
She has millions of followers so look at the positive and take this as a free publicity. who knows if some of her followers might end up buying some BTC.

Pretty much everyone knows about bitcoin, it didn't help that all the replies were retarded. But it doesn't matter, the next era of bitcoin will be because its necessary, not because of publicity, or speculation, or technical curiosity like previous era's.

Lot's of people have heard of bitcoin, sure... of course, but they have hardly no fucking clue about what it is, including some people who buy it, and I am not even excluding myself from such person's who have difficulties understanding what the fuck bitcoin is. 

In other words, I would not presume anything even close to full knowledge coming from anyone merely because they had heard what bitcoin is and they are able to describe it in one or two sentences.
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May 19, 2020, 05:39:23 AM

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.
She has millions of followers so look at the positive and take this as a free publicity. who knows if some of her followers might end up buying some BTC.

Pretty much everyone knows about bitcoin, it didn't help that all the replies were retarded. But it doesn't matter, the next era of bitcoin will be because its necessary, not because of publicity, or speculation, or technical curiosity like previous era's.

Lot's of people have heard of bitcoin, sure... of course, but they have hardly no fucking clue about what it is, including some people who buy it, and I am not even excluding myself from such person's who have difficulties understanding what the fuck bitcoin is. 

In other words, I would not presume anything even close to full knowledge coming from anyone merely because they had heard what bitcoin is and they are able to describe it in one or two sentences.

Agree 100% Pretty sure none of the replies will help anyone with that!  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

My larger point I suppose, was that I don't think the next leg up will be people buying because they saw a J.K tweet, but because they need to buy it.
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May 19, 2020, 05:45:59 AM

J.K. Rowling is starting to piss me off on Twitter now, begging for attention. Nobody cares if you don’t want to invest in bitcoin, we don’t need your worthless fiat to moon, silly old boomer cunt.
She has millions of followers so look at the positive and take this as a free publicity. who knows if some of her followers might end up buying some BTC.

Pretty much everyone knows about bitcoin, it didn't help that all the replies were retarded. But it doesn't matter, the next era of bitcoin will be because its necessary, not because of publicity, or speculation, or technical curiosity like previous era's.

Pretty much everyone??? May be In parallel dimension.

About retarded replies... what else you can expect from the nerd community when talking with the opposite sex  Grin
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