Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Indymoney]

Observing a very nice and steady upward recovery, bouncing off ~$11.2k USD/BTC yesterday.

This one looks healthy and organic.

HODL strong, brothers.

I’m really keen to see where the next break upwards takes us. I have a feeling we’ll see $13,000 before the end of September but please, nobody trade based on that. It’s just a gut feeling.

You are around $13K and I am also feeling its going around $125K to $13K because now he is around $11K for some good time so can go some above in coming days.

[1714116873]

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[Toxic2040]

i really am a degen...ffs..

i feel the need to speculate if LFC is on Bobbies ignore list or not

[vapourminer]

RE: cracking a 256 bit key

obviously much simpler to just spy on the person creating the key/seeds.

think of how many microphones and cameras there are in the various devices in your house. then windows that someone can see into (drones have fantastic cameras btw).

so. room with all windows shades drawn (better: a closet with no windows/connection to exterior walls). all laptops/cellphones/webcams/smart speakers/smart TVs/voice remotes etc off and batteries/ethernet cables/power cords removed, all wifi disconnected at the sources (you might be amazed how many devices have wifi that you may not know about).. thats ALL of them in the house, not just the room youre in. use casino dice to generate the seed words. all in a sealed room. then a strong passphrase. burn all your work after verifying it all works.

engrave it on your favorite fire/waterproof medium. include some (or all) non magnet mediums for any metal detectors that may be employed to find stuff like that. or sprinkle hundreds of nuts and bolts in walls and around your property as as diversions/time wasters. etc.

now none of that involves cracking that 256 bit key but this is just stuff ive thought of when generating seeds. im sure there are many better ways.

so a bit off the topic but hey just tossing ideas out.

and yes paranoia is my middle name.. at least when it comes to keys/seeds.

[Dabs]

so. room with all windows shades drawn (better: a closet with no windows/connection to exterior walls). all laptops/cellphones/webcams/smart speakers/smart TVs/voice remotes etc off and batteries/ethernet cables/power cords removed, all wifi disconnected at the sources (you might be amazed how many devices have wifi that you may not know about).. thats ALL of them in the house, not just the room youre in. use casino dice to generate the seed words. all in a sealed room. then a strong passphrase. burn all your work after verifying it all works.

I would add some white noise. Can use any old cell phone, download a white noise app, plug in some speakers, turn on airplane mode, let it run, make some noise, so any bugs listening will hear the noise.

I think much easier to go look around your room, around your house, take a walk or stroll and see how to get in from the outside.

I like this particular website:
https://iancoleman.io/bip39/

You can download it and run it offline.

[DeathAngel]

Wonder, will we see a weekend pump or dump this weekend? It feels like we’re set to move in either direction, perhaps violently.

[philipma1957]

RE: cracking a 256 bit key

obviously much simpler to just spy on the person creating the key/seeds.

think of how many microphones and cameras there are in the various devices in your house. then windows that someone can see into (drones have fantastic cameras btw).

so. room with all windows shades drawn (better: a closet with no windows/connection to exterior walls). all laptops/cellphones/webcams/smart speakers/smart TVs/voice remotes etc off and batteries/ethernet cables/power cords removed, all wifi disconnected at the sources (you might be amazed how many devices have wifi that you may not know about).. thats ALL of them in the house, not just the room youre in. use casino dice to generate the seed words. all in a sealed room. then a strong passphrase. burn all your work after verifying it all works.

engrave it on your favorite fire/waterproof medium. include some (or all) non magnet mediums for any metal detectors that may be employed to find stuff like that. or sprinkle hundreds of nuts and bolts in walls and around your property as as diversions/time wasters. etc.

now none of that involves cracking that 256 bit key but this is just stuff ive thought of when generating seeds. im sure there are many better ways.

so a bit off the topic but hey just tossing ideas out.

and yes paranoia is my middle name.. at least when it comes to keys/seeds.

Okay My Mac mini's don't have a camera. So seed spying is greatly reduced.
 Seeds were generated one time. Photoed with an off line camera . printed with an off line printer.

copies made with an off line copier.  

I am thinking of making some metal washer style seed copies.

At deathangel sideways is still likely but a leading indicator of downward price pressures is right here.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/
 ...

Latest Block:   645708  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.9501%  (589 / 613.86 expected, 24.86 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   16947802333946.61                            
Current Difficulty:   17557993035167.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 16887130005840 and 17216721760200
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.8208% and -1.9437%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 4:19 AM  (+3.6004%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 7, 2020 at 11:24 AM  (in 10d 0h 45m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 7, 2020 at 6:30 PM  (in 10d 7h 52m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 4m 34s and 14d 14h 10m 54s ...

The diff drop will be 4% in 10 days that does drag  price in a downward direction.

If you go back in time to v8's flooding post the  future diff has been dropping for more than 11 days.

this was august 17  we were 69 blocks ahead of pace we closed at 66 blocks ahead of pace
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55015487#msg55015487

so we had a very slight diff down turn from august 17 to  august 24th

we now have a stronger diff downturn from august 24th to august 28th.  So the price down turn was led by the diff downturn for these 10 days.

It does happen that diff lead price less often then price lead diff. but the diff turndown came first in this case.

Ie I look at diff futures  not current diff.

the stretch of august 17 to august 24 we did about 4-6 blocks under pace and price followed downwards.

august 24 to august 28  we are  24 block under pace and the downward pricing  or sideways pricing continues.

I look for a break out in September  as price has more influence then diff. (at least in my studies of the two.)

I see a lot of investing cap shifting to coins come September. That will cause a strong price rise.

[AlcoHoDL]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

"Brute force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space".

-Bruce Schneier

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

Brute force, so checking every combination, makes some pretty easily verifiable claims.

If you build a supercomputer that occupies a space of only 1 cubic centimetre, that can brute force 1 trillion keys a second, and cover the entire earths surface with these computers, the Sun will swallow the Earth, before you have time to search the whole 256 bit key space.

I have also seen other calculations that information represented as its absolute minimum energy in the laws of physics, that there is not enough energy in the Sun to search a 256 bit key space either.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. So these Laws of Thermodynamics will have to be broken first.

I would very much like to see the proof regarding the necessity of the Laws of Thermodynamics to be broken in order to brute force a 256-bit key. Is there any link of such proof? I'm a bit concerned about the use of energy to do the calculations.

<snip

Applied Cryptography (1996) by Bruce Schneier page 157 (I am looking at my 2nd edition here):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kT, where T is the absolute temperature of the system and k is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k = 1.38×10-16 erg/°Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2°Kelvin, an ideal computer running at 3.2°K would consume 4.4×10-16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21×1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7×1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 2192. Of course, it wouldn't have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that's just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 1051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.

He does quote this paragraph quite often, for example here: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

Many thanks for this. Very interesting and reassuring for our cryptography. The problem comes when you remove the words "brute force", in which case the situation is far from reassuring. In any case, and no matter how certain we may think we are about anything, we must keep an open mind about what may be possible in the future.

[El duderino_]

i really am a degen...ffs..

i feel the need to speculate if LFC is on Bobbies ignore list or not

And what’s your outcome? 

[El duderino_]

Wonder, will we see a weekend pump or dump this weekend? It feels like we’re set to move in either direction, perhaps violently.

I only know what we always hoping for 

[AlcoHoDL]

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible."

— Lord Kelvin, 1895

No source?

Source: New Scientist — 10 Impossibilities Conquered by Science

Problem is that's not a source. There are plenty of famous misquotes that get bandied around, yet when we look for the actual origin, we're left empty-handed, e.g. "640k ought to be enough for anyone", "let them eat cake" etc.

Just Google it. The link I posted is from a well-respected science and technology magazine.

What is surprising is that there were birds flying in 1895 (and much earlier). It does seem strange that Lord Kelvin stated the above quote. But I also doubt that New Scientist would misquote Lord Kelvin...

Another related link, from Wolfram Research (another well-respected source).

Also worth mentioning "Clarke’s Law":

"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

— Arthur C. Clarke

Source: New Scientist — Clarke's Three Laws

[DeathAngel]

Wonder, will we see a weekend pump or dump this weekend? It feels like we’re set to move in either direction, perhaps violently.

I only know what we always hoping for 

The DeathAngel always want PAMP EET

[Toxic2040]

And what’s your outcome? 

I give it a 74.28417% chance that LFC escaped the rusty pipe.

[serveria.com]

And what’s your outcome? 

I give it a 74.28417% chance that LFC escaped the rusty pipe.

Well you can't be so sure: perhaps it's vice versa and the peeps on the blacklist have escaped the pipe 

[serveria.com]

I'm just an old retarded permabull but me thinks that it's not Bawb talking but rather alcohol and well... substances.... 

[serveria.com]

I see a lot of investing cap shifting to coins come September. That will cause a strong price rise.

Sounds like music to my ears...   

[BobLawblaw]

Not upset.... people just amaze me from time to time....
Didn’t expect such from a fellow HODLer 

... where mic doesn't even stop for introspection, and reconcile that his own shit stinks just as much as everyone else's.

The reason I finally ignored you, is because I lost all respect for you after the "Fight Club" incident; not stopping to even consider my point of view for being so upset with everything, leading to the purging of my account back to taco-pleb status. "I'm having a hard time understanding bob right now and don't follow him".

Of course not ! You think about yourself, for the most part, and that's pretty fucking selfish and shallow behavior that I grew tired of. Seem to have zero emotional IQ.

What ? Just because I'm an OG-HODLer means I owe you some respect, or friendship... or something ?

Honey badger doesn't give a fuck about your feelings, and neither do I.

Fuck off, get your head out of your ass, and get over yourself.

Then maybe we can talk.

[Dabs]

Also worth mentioning "Clarke’s Law":

"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

— Arthur C. Clarke

Source: New Scientist — Clarke's Three Laws

I'm no scientist and I'm not old (but not young and naive), so ... when I say something is impossible, I technically mean that to say something is very unlikely or improbably, or the chances are very small. (So there is a chance?) ... but that chance is one in a billion. Or one in several billions.

For all intents and purposes, impossible.

When you take out brute force, there are other methods. Violence or the threat of it usually works.

So we have theoretical security in place already with 90 bit passwords, 128 bit keys, 160 bits, 256 bits, etc. What's probably more important is OPSEC and physical security. Do you have a secure home, is it protected, is your front door locked, will bad guys have a hard time breaking a window and entering. Stuff like that.

I like how Clarke thinks too, and I've seen one firearms instructor say something similar. We don't test our limits by trying until we fail. Then we push those limits by trying again and then failing. He meant this as an exercise in using your non-dominant hand and difficult positions such as prone on the floor or on your back, not your typical two hands on the gun pose aiming at the target. You go faster and faster until your accuracy drops.

Then you realize it gets difficult to shot at a moving target, when you are moving yourself, then you go try again slowly, then build up speed.

Bitcoin is not all magic. It's just math. But then people call it "Magic Internet Money" anyway.


There's also Murphy's Law. When something can go wrong, it will.

[BobLawblaw]

I'm just an old retarded permabull but me thinks that it's not Bawb talking but rather alcohol and well... substances.... 

Dude. I've purged myself of alcohol and substances entirely, shortly after purging my post history.

Look forward to giving myself a drug test on Monday and testing 100% clean.

It's me. Just a more clear-headed and less bullshit-tolerant Bob.

[Indymoney]

Wonder, will we see a weekend pump or dump this weekend? It feels like we’re set to move in either direction, perhaps violently.

I only know what we always hoping for 

The DeathAngel always want PAMP EET

DeathAngle is not alone in this club many others also waiting for this 

[serveria.com]

I'm just an old retarded permabull but me thinks that it's not Bawb talking but rather alcohol and well... substances.... 

Dude. I've purged myself of alcohol and substances entirely, shortly after purging my post history.

Look forward to giving myself a drug test on Monday and testing 100% clean.

It's me. Just a more clear-headed and less bullshit-tolerant Bob.

I'm really happy to hear that and it seems I missed something that you're referring to as a "fight club incident". I was not aware of that so it's really hard to comment/judge...