Tomorrow is the close of the monthly candle and will bring further clarity as what lies ahead. #dyor
Do you really believe that there is any kind of material significance to monthly candles?
Are monthly candles used by anything? Bots? Sure, they might be displayed here and there, but really significance?
Remember, from time to time, we also have quarterly, yearly and even 4 year candles being touted about, too.
I am not proclaiming any kind of non-significance of these various candles, but I wonder if you are really seriously excited about such impending monthly candle close or you are just a tease?
yes
My interest stems from the fact that monthly candles describe long term macro trends and that is where my interest in bitcoin lies...long term. As for material significance? I am not sure how much can be gleaned from monthlies for day to day trading..which I think is what the majority of hodlers in this thread are focused on.
Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.
You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?
We dont even have 9 years of monthly candles yet..just over 100 candles maybe? That is not enough of a statistically relevant number to be making assumptions on.
Maybe that is why we might use monthly candles to see pretty patterns but not necessarily tie too much distinguishing characteristics from them that we cannot get out of weekly candles.
Each month closed reduces noise however..so again...yes, I am excited.
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Not going to criticize you for being cccccciiittttteeeeee!!!!!!!
In approximately 2 to 6 weeks...miners capitulate and we see some form or another of a V pattern.
Do you really believe that miners are on the edge? There is a lot of behind the scenes with miners, and surely over the years and the various halvenings, we have had a variety of nonsense miner death spiral theories spouted out that do not end up playing out, but seems that part of the underlying presumption of your miner capitulation theory would be that there is something unsustainable going on behind the scenes in mining.
Sure we could have a three gorges dam rupture or something catastrophic like that, but that does not seem to be being calculated in the scenario that you are conjecturing, toxic.
I look at the recent halvening and the largely stable hashing power being thrown at bitcoin with even a slightly high point after this last difficulty adjustment:
https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038In my potentially rosey eyes, mining hash rate continues to appear bullish as fuck on an ongoing basis, including the difficulty adjustments that were made before and after our most recent halvening and really how steady the ongoing upward pressures on difficulty continues to seem as UPpity. Am I missing something?
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Perhaps I was not clear enough in my statements. I think there is a difference between miners turning off rigs due to profitability and affecting difficulty and miners having to dump coin to pay bills. Which the latter is what I was referring to. I believe some miners have been hodling coins on the possibility that there might be a significant rise in price and at some point selling capitulation might be a factor. Again..in my humble opinion.
Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.
I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.
I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way (to manipulate up or to manipulate down or to push extreme price movements - if they can), but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right?) chart patterns that are seeming to show 4-year fractal BTC price prediction model and even the stock to flow BTC price prediction model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...
Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best BTC price directional predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy-ass shit in the macro financial space.
So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges (from miners or retail or whoever) and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last? I will believe it when I see it. I am not suggesting that it is NOT possible to achieve more large BTC price drops and to sustain them for lower and longer than seems feasible (or sustainable), but largely we are seeming way more inclined towards UPpity rather than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting into any kind of real world the definition of "weak hands" - they are not weak enough.
Personally, I would not mind witnessing a decent amount of shakening of some of the froth, baloney ethereum and some of that defi , yield farming, bullshit smoke and mirrors nonsense.. those areas seem way more vulnerable to getting some purging than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.
I can't even even about that. Things are getting crazy in parts of the country. Really don't like what BLM and Antifa are trying to foment.
Part of the reason that rioters are both so adamant and willing to riot is that they hardly have shit to lose. In other words they do not have property.. so stop trying to act like they are burning property and they have their own property.. they do not.
That's largely why they are rioting.
There has been systematic fucking around with regular people (who have turned into rioters) and even giving so many of the spoils to the rich, and lack of attention to the infrastructure of normies, so normies start to feel that they have nothing to lose - they turn into rioters.
normies are just like us (even though many of us have bitcoin.. and many normies do not know about bitcoin)
By the way, there is no such thing as antifa, too.. it is a made up acronym that tries to suggest that rioters are some kind of organized entity, when they are just a bunch of frustrated and unorganized normies.. who don't have property or seem to have opportunities
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