Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[elebit]

Let´s say an early adopter agreed to provide 200.000 coins and help MTGox to come back up.

That's not the case here. These coins are MtGox's. Parts of it come from the transaction where Karpeles proved he owned them.

[Hfertig]

Let´s say an early adopter agreed to provide 200.000 coins and help MTGox to come back up.

That's not the case here. These coins are MtGox's. Parts of it come from the transaction where Karpeles proved he owned them.

thanks !!

[elebit]

I meant a VAT on the barter itself.  Say, if one trades 100,000 EUR worth of salted pork bellies for a 100,000 EUR car, is he supposed to pay VAT or other taxes on the 100,000 EUR?

No idea. I guess that would depend on the circumstances, whether it is your profession etc. Perhaps someone else can chime in?

[zyk]

Let´s say an early adopter agreed to provide 200.000 coins and help MTGox to come back up.

That's not the case here. These coins are MtGox's. Parts of it come from the transaction where Karpeles proved he owned them.

that are the laywers coins  

[hdbuck]

Been strolling in the forum and found a very nice introduction to the intrinsic value of a bitcoin.
Thought it may help new comers to apprehend the value of a bitcoin from a different angle than just speculation:

The intrinsic value of a bitcoin is the total energy and computational/informational content that went into creating it (incl. energy to produce computing resource materials, silicon, etc, human labour, brainpower, encryption difficulty). The market value will tend toward the intrinsic value in the long term. I expect bitcoin values to become strongly correlated with the underlying kiloWatt-hour electrical energy price and oil, gas, coal (fossil fuels while they are still around) or fissile nuclear materials, etc. Depending on the independent circumstances of the markets in each of these energy generating fuels they correlate with gold, silver and other metal ratios over long periods. Metals are correlated with energy because that's what it takes to prospect for them and dig them up (it is not rocket science just economics).

In the short and medium terms premiums will probably be placed on bitcoins for various reasons; uniqueness, scarcity, anonymity, security. Also possible market manias or euphoric bubbles could erupt to distort values temporarily.

Money and energy have been joined at the hip since the beginning. Money is simply stored energy in some instances. Bitcoin is moving up the evolutionary ladder like atomic energy is to burning wood in caves.

[ShroomsKit]

"Omg i have no idea what this all means but i'm gonna panic sell just in case".

[derpinheimer]

"Omg i have no idea what this all means but i'm gonna panic sell just in case".

They will likely be rewarded for that choice...

[kkaspar]

It does appear that the coins are doing something at Gox.
Let´s say an early adopter agreed to provide 200.000 coins and help MTGox to come back up.
What would the implications be ?

a) Lot´s of coins which will be withdrawn and dumped on other exchanges
b) confidence raises and we are going to the moon

I vouch for a)

It's a mess either way. If someone wanted to do a bail-out, then he should have acted earlier. It would be idiotic to act now when a big part of the damage has already been done.
I wouldn't be surprised though, because it seems to be the nature of the bitcoin community. Emus who like to bury their heads in sand and act only when it's too late. When MtGox was already rotten, then the community was for letting it go bad, because "the free market will take everything and nothing bad will happen". I wouldn't be surprised if someone got spooked now because of the very low buy interest, that is showing at the markets and now they were "maybe a bail-out would restore confidence".
If it is a bail-out at this present time, then it's definitely a)

[Davyd05]

looks like the market fears gox coin dumps if they will be repaying with these moving coins

[Rampion]

By the way, if you find it hard to believe that a man in the situation of Dorian Nakamoto could invent bitcoin and not cash out a single coin: check Grigori Perelman, who settled the Poincaré Conjecture and then turned down the Fields Medal and a 1,000,000 US$ prize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman
http://brettforrest.com/articles/shattered-genius/

I too think it is him.

I do not think it is him at all. The journalist "work" is extremely bad and based on pure speculation, it really looks like this is a prank pulled on her by Dorian's brother.

The internet is full of posts by Dorian (Amazon; guns forums; train models forums; Toyota forum; etc.) and his writing style is EXTREMELY different (and bad) compared to SN's. The journalist was SO BAD and so eager to publish this story that she didn't even take the time to make a real comparison between the writing of both characters - she just wrote on his piece that Dorian's wife said that her husband mixes both American and UK english, which is beyond ridiculous as a "proof", especially if there is SO much material on the internet to make a REAL comparison. It's obvious that Dorian writes a very bad english, and this is very easily verifiable: his posts all over the internet.

All in all there's some circumstancial evidence, but not a single hint of firm evidence. In fact, the strongest evidence is that the guy's birth name is Satoshi Nakamoto -  but Dorian is a physicist and an engineer, not a cryptographer; add to that his bad english (which, again, is easily proved by using a little google-skills) and the unbelievable characteristics of this story (a guy who never spoke to his family about his project and went to greath lengths to be anonymous "tacitly admits" his involvment to a journalist and uses his real name to publish the foundational paper).

I bet Dorian is not SN. It just doesn't add up. If his birth name was not "Satoshi Nakamoto", everybody would have been laughing at this whole story. It's much more likely SN is Nick Szabo - the evidence is still circumstancial but orders of magnitude stronger in his case. For Christ sake, Nick Szabo was the "inventor" of the "smart contract" concept, his work revolves around the concept of eliminating trust on third parties using decentralized ledgers and he created "bit gold" (which is pure and simply the precursor of Bitcoin), working on it for decades until he stopped publishing papers on electronic cash around 2005 (his last post on bit gold was written on his blog on 2008, just little before the Bitcoin paper was published - what a coincidence). Plus, Szabo's and Satoshi's writing styles are very similar, they use the very same terms and concepts and their work revolves around the very same point. It really looks like Szabo found the "solution to the problem" and created bitcoin, and that's why he never published again about electronic cash/trustless sytems - which were the center of his work for more than a decade. He never wrote about bitcoin and ignores all the comments about bitcoin on his blog, which seems incredibly shady given the fact that he is clearly the inspirator of such a system…  All that might be circumstancial, but the links (in form of PAPERS and WORKS, not speculation by family members and retarded journalists) are SO strong they cannot be ignored.

IMO all this Dorian story is a ludicrous joke that leverages on just three things: A) Dorian's name; B) the fact Dorian worked on classified projects; C) the fact Dorian is a libertarian and quite "paranoid" when it comes to Government - which is simply what you would expect from anyone who has worked for the Government - he just knows first hand that Govs spy and apply violence on people.

The Newsweek journalists should be ashamed.

[koryu]

dont wanna spread fud but if the 200k btc belong to gox and they got access to them, what is likely to happen?

assuming this as facts:
mtgox lost approximately 750,000 bitcoins deposited by users.
the last exchange rate @gox is 136$.
they have 200k btc

what options they have?

lets do some math....

(I)
they have 750k/200k = 0.2666 ~ 26,6% of the deposited coins.
give each user 26,6% of his deposited coins back.

(II)
paying the last price of 136$ each btc which would be 0.75m btc * 136$ = 102m $
therefore they had to sell the 200k btc to a whale for 510$ each btc: 102m$ / 0.2m btc = 510$

(III)
claiming they have no access to the btcs and its somebody else doing the current transactions.


just my brainstorming, does this make sense?

[cdooer]

I think this article regarding SN lays it out pretty good

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2014/03/07/the-satoshi-paradox/

[hdbuck]

dont wanna spread fud but if the 200k btc belong to gox and they got access to them, what is likely to happen?

assuming this as facts:
mtgox lost approximately 750,000 bitcoins deposited by users.
the last exchange rate @gox is 136$.
they have 200k btc

what options they have?

lets do some math....

(I)
they have 750k/200k = 0.2666 ~ 26,6% of the deposited coins.
give each user 26,6% of his deposited coins back.

(II)
paying the last price of 136$ each btc which would be 0.75m btc * 136$ = 102m $
therefore they had to sell the 200k btc to a whale for 510$ each btc: 102m$ / 0.2m btc = 510$

(III)
claiming they have no access to the btcs and its somebody else doing the current transactions.


just my brainstorming, does this make sense?

yea..but nope. Just forget about it.

[zyk]

looks like the market fears gox coin dumps if they will be repaying with these moving coins

the BTC market behaves as a drunken idiot as always....doing a suckers ralley on idiot news only to crash down when finally accepting that its in the hands of crooks who are fleecing

peoples to their bones...Cheers

[mah87]

SATOSHI IS NOT SATOSHI !!!



THISSSSS IS CRRAAAASHINGGGG !!!

[soullyG]

...blah blah blah...

Aww you're back, we thought you'd forgotten about us

[dreamspark]

The bear trolls are returning, this is a bad sign 

[dreamspark]

Small wall alert!!

[delphic]

Guys are you following this development:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zswul/graphs_change_at_httpcoinsightorgmtgoxhtmlnew_20k/?sort=confidence

Gox api broadcasts 20k transaction today.Investigation links it to the 200k moving today.Splitting looks to follow a line in the leaked PHP code.

I dont get what is happening there...

Can anyone explain?

i follow gmaxwell/nullc on reddit and he speculates:

200kBTC has been transferred from suspected gox controlled addresses to new addresses, and then part of those funds has been transferred again and again, being broken into small pieces in a manner consistent with the MTGox software and operations for their online wallet. Some transactions spending coins involved in this are showing up in the MTGox api.
I would speculate they are preparing to bring their site back online in some capacityl
Sorry for the lack of links, this all follows directly from the transaction ID in the thread title and the other links I've posted.

source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zsr6g/the_megahuge_addresses_tied_to_gox_that_just_got/cfwnqc9


its an uncertain situation, not sure what happens and where we go now. lets hope they are not going to gox us one last time.
but for those who own goxcoins there is a little hope.

The leaked code, I understand, splits bitcoins into 2 outputs randomly up to a roughly 40%/60% split. i do not understand what the purpose of doing that would be in the norma; course of MtGox's business.

Also, if MtGox is trying to come back up online, why would it be splitting the contents of the previously cold address up into lots of random, smaller amounts at all?

My first impression was that a thief is splitting up the hoard into smaller amounts that might later be fed through a tumbler, although arguably the thief is leaving a bigger, albeit more confusing, trail by doing so. One slip might reveal who is splitting the hoard up.

The more I watch, the less I understand what is going on.

Is Karpeles going to pay people 200K BTC to throw them of the trail of the much larger missing remainder? I do not trust Karpeles an inch.

[Rannasha]

Guys are you following this development:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zswul/graphs_change_at_httpcoinsightorgmtgoxhtmlnew_20k/?sort=confidence

Gox api broadcasts 20k transaction today.Investigation links it to the 200k moving today.Splitting looks to follow a line in the leaked PHP code.

I dont get what is happening there...

Can anyone explain?

i follow gmaxwell/nullc on reddit and he speculates:

200kBTC has been transferred from suspected gox controlled addresses to new addresses, and then part of those funds has been transferred again and again, being broken into small pieces in a manner consistent with the MTGox software and operations for their online wallet. Some transactions spending coins involved in this are showing up in the MTGox api.
I would speculate they are preparing to bring their site back online in some capacityl
Sorry for the lack of links, this all follows directly from the transaction ID in the thread title and the other links I've posted.

source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zsr6g/the_megahuge_addresses_tied_to_gox_that_just_got/cfwnqc9


its an uncertain situation, not sure what happens and where we go now. lets hope they are not going to gox us one last time.
but for those who own goxcoins there is a little hope.

The leaked code, I understand, splits bitcoins into 2 outputs randomly up to a roughly 40%/60% split. i do not understand what the purpose of doing that would be in the norma; course of MtGox's business.

Also, if MtGox is trying to come back up online, why would it be splitting the contents of the previously cold address up into lots of random, smaller amounts at all?

My first impression was that a thief is splitting up the hoard into smaller amounts that might later be fed through a tumbler, although arguably the thief is leaving a bigger, albeit more confusing, trail by doing so. One slip might reveal who is splitting the hoard up.

The more I watch, the less I understand what is going on.

Is Karpeles going to pay people 200K BTC to throw them of the trail of the much larger missing remainder? I do not trust Karpeles an inch.

Splitting up coins for a hot wallet is a good idea because if you just use a single huge output, you can process one withdrawal and then have to wait for it to confirm before you can use the remaining funds, since they're all in a change address. Or you can send unconfirmed change out, but then you're susceptible to malleability abuse. If you're going to deposit coins from a cold into a hot wallet, it is good practice to split them up in many small outputs.