Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kkaspar]

As it seems, this weekend will see a nice downfall, probably even a flash crash. People are getting tired of waiting for Santa Whale to buy their "cheap coins". The smart ones are getting out earlier, the rest will be waiting for miracles until it's too late.

[billyjoeallen]

Weeeeee! cheap coins! Just got back all the coins I sold at $700.   

[elebit]

Also, if MtGox is trying to come back up online, why would it be splitting the contents of the previously cold address up into lots of random, smaller amounts at all?

MtGox's hot wallet used to be split up in roughly 2k chunks. So he's probably running a script that loads a hot wallet from cold storage.

Why? Don't know. It's not a very good way to hide the coins, so my suspicion is that there is going to be payments from MtGox soon. Let's just hope it's to customers. It could be preparations for Gox.com.

My first impression was that a thief is splitting up the hoard into smaller amounts that might later be fed through a tumbler, although arguably the thief is leaving a bigger, albeit more confusing, trail by doing so. One slip might reveal who is splitting the hoard up.

Does not make sense. What would you tumble it with? Itself?

[oda.krell]

By the way, if you find it hard to believe that a man in the situation of Dorian Nakamoto could invent bitcoin and not cash out a single coin: check Grigori Perelman, who settled the Poincaré Conjecture and then turned down the Fields Medal and a 1,000,000 US$ prize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman
http://brettforrest.com/articles/shattered-genius/

I too think it is him.

I do not think it is him at all. The journalist "work" is extremely bad and based on pure speculation, it really looks like this is a prank pulled on her by Dorian's brother.

The internet is full of posts by Dorian (Amazon; guns forums; train models forums; Toyota forum; etc.) and his writing style is EXTREMELY different (and bad) compared to SN's. The journalist was SO BAD and so eager to publish this story that she didn't even take the time to make a real comparison between the writing of both characters - she just wrote on his piece that Dorian's wife said that her husband mixes both American and UK english, which is beyond ridiculous as a "proof", especially if there is SO much material on the internet to make a REAL comparison. It's obvious that Dorian writes a very bad english, and this is very easily verifiable: his posts all over the internet.

All in all there's some circumstancial evidence, but not a single hint of firm evidence. In fact, the strongest evidence is that the guy's birth name is Satoshi Nakamoto -  but Dorian is a physicist and an engineer, not a cryptographer; add to that his bad english (which, again, is easily proved by using a little google-skills) and the unbelievable characteristics of this story (a guy who never spoke to his family about his project and went to greath lengths to be anonymous "tacitly admits" his involvment to a journalist and uses his real name to publish the foundational paper).

I bet Dorian is not SN. It just doesn't add up. If his birth name was not "Satoshi Nakamoto", everybody would have been laughing at this whole story. It's much more likely SN is Nick Szabo - the evidence is still circumstancial but orders of magnitude stronger in his case. For Christ sake, Nick Szabo was the "inventor" of the "smart contract" concept, his work revolves around the concept of eliminating trust on third parties using decentralized ledgers and he created "bit gold" (which is pure and simply the precursor of Bitcoin), working on it for decades until he stopped publishing papers on electronic cash around 2005 (his last post on bit gold was written on his blog on 2008, just little before the Bitcoin paper was published - what a coincidence). Plus, Szabo's and Satoshi's writing styles are very similar, they use the very same terms and concepts and their work revolves around the very same point. It really looks like Szabo found the "solution to the problem" and created bitcoin, and that's why he never published again about electronic cash/trustless sytems - which were the center of his work for more than a decade. He never wrote about bitcoin and ignores all the comments about bitcoin on his blog, which seems incredibly shady given the fact that he is clearly the inspirator of such a system…  All that might be circumstancial, but the links (in form of PAPERS and WORKS, not speculation by family members and retarded journalists) are SO strong they cannot be ignored.

IMO all this Dorian story is a ludicrous joke that leverages on just three things: A) Dorian's name; B) the fact Dorian worked on classified projects; C) the fact Dorian is a libertarian and quite "paranoid" when it comes to Government - which is simply what you would expect from anyone who has worked for the Government - he just knows first hand that Govs spy and apply violence on people.

The Newsweek journalists should be ashamed.

Great post, Rampion, as usual. Excellent summary of what is wrong with the article. I guess the fact that Newsweek went "all in" and made it a cover story had everybody lose their head for a moment, and ignore the obvious objections.

There's only circumstantial evidence that Dorian is "Satoshi", and in fact, there are other candidates for which there exists much more such circumstantial evidence. Hence: we should reject that Dorian = "Satoshi", unless additional proof is given by the author of the NW article. (and I'm not exactly holding my breath for that to happen.)

[mah87]

Rumors of MTGOX coming back...



..;MAKES BITCOIN PRICE CRAAAAASSSHSSHSHSHS

[billyjoeallen]

As it seems, this weekend will see a nice downfall, probably even a flash crash. People are getting tired of waiting for Santa Whale to buy their "cheap coins". The smart ones are getting out earlier, the rest will be waiting for miracles until it's too late.

You got a short memory, Hoss. We are following the same pattern from the ramp from $400 to $607 then a pull back to $533 before the next ramp to $710.

tide always goes out before the Tsunami.

[koryu]

Guys are you following this development:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zswul/graphs_change_at_httpcoinsightorgmtgoxhtmlnew_20k/?sort=confidence

Gox api broadcasts 20k transaction today.Investigation links it to the 200k moving today.Splitting looks to follow a line in the leaked PHP code.

I dont get what is happening there...

Can anyone explain?

i follow gmaxwell/nullc on reddit and he speculates:

200kBTC has been transferred from suspected gox controlled addresses to new addresses, and then part of those funds has been transferred again and again, being broken into small pieces in a manner consistent with the MTGox software and operations for their online wallet. Some transactions spending coins involved in this are showing up in the MTGox api.
I would speculate they are preparing to bring their site back online in some capacityl
Sorry for the lack of links, this all follows directly from the transaction ID in the thread title and the other links I've posted.

source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zsr6g/the_megahuge_addresses_tied_to_gox_that_just_got/cfwnqc9


its an uncertain situation, not sure what happens and where we go now. lets hope they are not going to gox us one last time.
but for those who own goxcoins there is a little hope.

The leaked code, I understand, splits bitcoins into 2 outputs randomly up to a roughly 40%/60% split. i do not understand what the purpose of doing that would be in the norma; course of MtGox's business.

Also, if MtGox is trying to come back up online, why would it be splitting the contents of the previously cold address up into lots of random, smaller amounts at all?

My first impression was that a thief is splitting up the hoard into smaller amounts that might later be fed through a tumbler, although arguably the thief is leaving a bigger, albeit more confusing, trail by doing so. One slip might reveal who is splitting the hoard up.

The more I watch, the less I understand what is going on.

Is Karpeles going to pay people 200K BTC to throw them of the trail of the much larger missing remainder? I do not trust Karpeles an inch.

Splitting up coins for a hot wallet is a good idea because if you just use a single huge output, you can process one withdrawal and then have to wait for it to confirm before you can use the remaining funds, since they're all in a change address. Or you can send unconfirmed change out, but then you're susceptible to malleability abuse. If you're going to deposit coins from a cold into a hot wallet, it is good practice to split them up in many small outputs.

this. couldnt explain it better
you dont want to have a single hot wallet. its also more secure, even if it sounds bit cynical in a same sentence with mtgox.

[kkaspar]

As it seems, this weekend will see a nice downfall, probably even a flash crash. People are getting tired of waiting for Santa Whale to buy their "cheap coins". The smart ones are getting out earlier, the rest will be waiting for miracles until it's too late.

You got a short memory, Hoss. We are following the same pattern from the ramp from $400 to $607 then a pull back to $533 before the next ramp to $710.

tide always goes out before the Tsunami.

We'll see..

[Davyd05]

As it seems, this weekend will see a nice downfall, probably even a flash crash. People are getting tired of waiting for Santa Whale to buy their "cheap coins". The smart ones are getting out earlier, the rest will be waiting for miracles until it's too late.

You got a short memory, Hoss. We are following the same pattern from the ramp from $400 to $607 then a pull back to $533 before the next ramp to $710.

tide always goes out before the Tsunami.

Fibonacci agrees

[JorgeStolfi]

SATOSHI IS NOT SATOSHI !!!
THISSSSS IS CRRAAAASHINGGGG !!!

That is not the point, don't you see? 

The price took a plunge when Mark Karpeles said "bitcoin has a bug".

Now Satosh Nakamoto says that he did not invent bitcoin. Surely "bitcoin does not exist" is much worse than "bitcoin has a bug".

 

[Solarstorm75]

No it get's very weird. See this reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ztbnd/did_satoshi_update_his_public_key_yesterday/


If you follow the link, then you come to this:
http://pgp.mit.edu/pks/lookup?search=satoshin%40gmx.com&op=index

Now follow further and here comes the clou:



http://pgp.mit.edu/pks/lookup?op=vindex&search=0x18C09E865EC948A1

Mr. Dorian S. Nakamoto

WTF???

[LMGTFY]

Mr. Dorian S. Nakamoto

WTF???

"Signed" on the 1st April, 2013! (Dates aren't reliable - they use the PC's time, and that can easily be manipulated). I believe there are also screenshots from only a day or so ago showing no Dorian...

[Walsoraj]

The crash has more to do with Bitstamp's bid sum not replenishing (weaker support). It totaled over 20 mil about a week ago. Was 16 mil yesterday. 13 mil today. Coinbase is probably the only entity sending large sums to Bitstamp, and apparently not enough to sustain current prices.

[hdbuck]

...

WTF???

Why is there also dade murphy/crash override/zerocool from hollywood movie "Hackers"?




thats just a big joke...

[Davyd05]

bear trap its been a while ya know

[delphic]

Splitting up coins for a hot wallet is a good idea because if you just use a single huge output, you can process one withdrawal and then have to wait for it to confirm before you can use the remaining funds, since they're all in a change address. Or you can send unconfirmed change out, but then you're susceptible to malleability abuse. If you're going to deposit coins from a cold into a hot wallet, it is good practice to split them up in many small outputs.

Also, if MtGox is trying to come back up online, why would it be splitting the contents of the previously cold address up into lots of random, smaller amounts at all?

MtGox's hot wallet used to be split up in roughly 2k chunks. So he's probably running a script that loads a hot wallet from cold storage.

Why? Don't know. It's not a very good way to hide the coins, so my suspicion is that there is going to be payments from MtGox soon. Let's just hope it's to customers. It could be preparations for Gox.com.

My first impression was that a thief is splitting up the hoard into smaller amounts that might later be fed through a tumbler, although arguably the thief is leaving a bigger, albeit more confusing, trail by doing so. One slip might reveal who is splitting the hoard up.

Does not make sense. What would you tumble it with? Itself?

Thanks for the explanations. I still don't understand why the output amounts need to be randomised. My remark about tumblers is that tumbling huge amounts is pointless ass you just tumble with your own coins; I was guessing that the intent might be to break down the amounts into volumes that might feasibly be tumbled successfully.

I have no fiat or BTC in MtGox but I am astonished at what has happened so far.

[mmitech]

By the way, if you find it hard to believe that a man in the situation of Dorian Nakamoto could invent bitcoin and not cash out a single coin: check Grigori Perelman, who settled the Poincaré Conjecture and then turned down the Fields Medal and a 1,000,000 US$ prize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman
http://brettforrest.com/articles/shattered-genius/

I too think it is him.

I do not think it is him at all. The journalist "work" is extremely bad and based on pure speculation, it really looks like this is a prank pulled on her by Dorian's brother.

The internet is full of posts by Dorian (Amazon; guns forums; train models forums; Toyota forum; etc.) and his writing style is EXTREMELY different (and bad) compared to SN's. The journalist was SO BAD and so eager to publish this story that she didn't even take the time to make a real comparison between the writing of both characters - she just wrote on his piece that Dorian's wife said that her husband mixes both American and UK english, which is beyond ridiculous as a "proof", especially if there is SO much material on the internet to make a REAL comparison. It's obvious that Dorian writes a very bad english, and this is very easily verifiable: his posts all over the internet.

All in all there's some circumstancial evidence, but not a single hint of firm evidence. In fact, the strongest evidence is that the guy's birth name is Satoshi Nakamoto -  but Dorian is a physicist and an engineer, not a cryptographer; add to that his bad english (which, again, is easily proved by using a little google-skills) and the unbelievable characteristics of this story (a guy who never spoke to his family about his project and went to greath lengths to be anonymous "tacitly admits" his involvment to a journalist and uses his real name to publish the foundational paper).

I bet Dorian is not SN. It just doesn't add up. If his birth name was not "Satoshi Nakamoto", everybody would have been laughing at this whole story. It's much more likely SN is Nick Szabo - the evidence is still circumstancial but orders of magnitude stronger in his case. For Christ sake, Nick Szabo was the "inventor" of the "smart contract" concept, his work revolves around the concept of eliminating trust on third parties using decentralized ledgers and he created "bit gold" (which is pure and simply the precursor of Bitcoin), working on it for decades until he stopped publishing papers on electronic cash around 2005 (his last post on bit gold was written on his blog on 2008, just little before the Bitcoin paper was published - what a coincidence). Plus, Szabo's and Satoshi's writing styles are very similar, they use the very same terms and concepts and their work revolves around the very same point. It really looks like Szabo found the "solution to the problem" and created bitcoin, and that's why he never published again about electronic cash/trustless sytems - which were the center of his work for more than a decade. He never wrote about bitcoin and ignores all the comments about bitcoin on his blog, which seems incredibly shady given the fact that he is clearly the inspirator of such a system…  All that might be circumstancial, but the links (in form of PAPERS and WORKS, not speculation by family members and retarded journalists) are SO strong they cannot be ignored.

IMO all this Dorian story is a ludicrous joke that leverages on just three things: A) Dorian's name; B) the fact Dorian worked on classified projects; C) the fact Dorian is a libertarian and quite "paranoid" when it comes to Government - which is simply what you would expect from anyone who has worked for the Government - he just knows first hand that Govs spy and apply violence on people.

The Newsweek journalists should be ashamed.

this really make sense, also I really was curious about the identity of Satoshi, but I didn't pay this mystery allot of attention until now, I believed 90% of that article, after 24 hours and all the evidence it dropped to 40% but your post really putted me off Dorian.

but again, it is the first time when I really badly want to know about the identity of Satoshi, I know I wont achieve anything with that, but I will have peace with my mind, it wouldn't be strange if the whole article thing is set up or just an attempt to make the real Satoshi reveal him self in a try to save Dorian's life...

[proudhon]

Guys, we need to leave Dorian alone so he can get back to CCing his MFing trains.

[Solarstorm75]

Mr. Dorian S. Nakamoto

WTF???

"Signed" on the 1st April, 2013! (Dates aren't reliable - they use the PC's time, and that can easily be manipulated). I believe there are also screenshots from only a day or so ago showing no Dorian...

Thx. Proof here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=504778.0;all

[JorgeStolfi]

Excellent summary of what is wrong with the article. I guess the fact that Newsweek went "all in" and made it a cover story had everybody lose their head for a moment, and ignore the obvious objections.

There's only circumstantial evidence that Dorian is "Satoshi", and in fact, there are other candidates for which there exists much more such circumstantial evidence.

Actually I don't believe the article myself, it reads as if the reporter twisted the words and facts to fit her theory.

Someone posted earlier a paragraph that Newsweek deleted from that article, which explained how the reporter had found Dorian by combing through all the "Satoshi Nakamoto"s living in the US. Now, if you collect a hundred random people from some database, there is a good chance that you will find one who has a computer or electronics background (even if it is not cryptography).  That person quite likely will have worked for some technology company (where else?) that did classified wor for the government (is there any company in the US that didn't?)  Heck, even *I* worked for two such companies (Xerox and Digital Equipment).

Then you only have to pick a phrase or two from relatives and acquaintances that suggests he is the guy, and omit the cartloads of evidence that suggest that he isn't...