Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bassclef]

That's my point, you act like people aren't aware of the risks already. Go run along and do something else.

I just bought a couple more just to spite people like you.

People sure aren't acting like they are aware of the risks already. I'll probably get my account banned soon, so you don't have to see my name any longer. Can't promise that you won't see my text anymore though.

The last line you wrote was a little weird. To me, that's like shooting yourself in the foot just to spite people like me :/

yea, that's why he is buying bitcoin. to spite you.

pitch that one to your shrink. might be productive.

Ignore button is useful. Please use it.

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[aminorex]

I did draw some charts to meet your conditions, but I don't understand why this should be predictive, rather than coincidental.

The theory underlying the hypothesis is that under low volatility conditions the longer-term trends are more likely to predominate.  The linear trend angle from the past period of low volatility represents what would be expected at a constant absolute rate of growth, when all the shorter-term noise is filtered out.  The logarithmic trend angle from the past period represents what would be expected at a constant compounding rate of growth, likewise.  Since the current rate of growth is between these two extremes, I consider the angle to be expected bounds for any extended period of low volatility.

[AlexGR]

PSA:  It's generally appreciated not to quote the trolls.  Ignore button doesn't apply to quotations, sadly.

If you mean me, I´m no troll, I´m 90% in Bitcoin 

Just writing my thoughts, why usual people are probably not interested in buying Bitcoins.

First, they don't know what it is.
Second, they don't have easy access (say buy BTCs with paypal)
Third, they don't see the point - right now.
Fourth, they don't understand how an online currency can work.

3 and 4 are what give Bitcoin enormous potential.

It is the desire of the planetary "elite" to create a global digital currency that they can monitor, control, tax, impose fees - etc, all in a very centralized manner.

When this happens, and people start getting acquainted and understanding how the "official" centralized online currency work, and why it is a tool of tyranny and enslavement of the masses, Bitcoin will be the obvious and much-superior alternative. It will have the "problem" of having slower transactions but it will not be controlled, it will not charge fees, it will not be able to render people incapable of transacting just because the establishment said so, etc etc. By that point the whole "it's simple digits" skepticism will have evaporated, because the "official" currency will be digital also.

[fonzie]

All aboard!!
Choo Choo is about to start in the next 72 hours !!!
ALL in BTC , leveraged to the MAX!

[kkaspar]

That's my point, you act like people aren't aware of the risks already. Go run along and do something else.

I just bought a couple more just to spite people like you.

People sure aren't acting like they are aware of the risks already. I'll probably get my account banned soon, so you don't have to see my name any longer. Can't promise that you won't see my text anymore though.

The last line you wrote was a little weird. To me, that's like shooting yourself in the foot just to spite people like me :/

yea, that's why he is buying bitcoin. to spite you.

pitch that one to your shrink. might be productive.

I wonder if I'll speak more, then will he buy more bitcoins with the current market, just to spite me?

[av123]

All aboard!!
Choo Choo is about to start in the next 72 hours !!!
ALL in BTC , leveraged to the MAX!

Fonzie the super bull?  

[aminorex]

So current stamp walls, such as they are, are at 600, 630, 650.  More like stairsteps than walls, but hey, one observes what one can.

[Chalkbot]

Risk is not the only thing people are evaluating with bitcoin. To simplify;

If you could only choose from 2 investment options, one that paid 5% returns 95% of the time and another that paid 1000% returns 20% of the time, making that decision based on the risk alone would give you a flawed conclusion. (Not that this is representative of the situation, just illustrating that there are more factors to base this decision on than risk)

So while you may be going around warning of the risks, assuming we didn't take those into consideration because we've reached a different conclusion than you, instead start asking yourself what other benefits people might be seeing that you are not. I don't know of a lot of people in bitcoin that are not aware of the risks. Even if you explain it to someone who has zero exposure, they are going to start asking questions about risks, be it government regulation, or security, or what have you.

[MAbtc]

I did draw some charts to meet your conditions, but I don't understand why this should be predictive, rather than coincidental.

The theory underlying the hypothesis is that under low volatility conditions the longer-term trends are more likely to predominate.  The linear trend angle from the past period of low volatility represents what would be expected at a constant absolute rate of growth, when all the shorter-term noise is filtered out.  The logarithmic trend angle from the past period represents what would be expected at a constant compounding rate of growth, likewise.  Since the current rate of growth is between these two extremes, I consider the angle to be expected bounds for any extended period of low volatility.

Low volatility on what time frame? This can be true until those conditions cease to exist. What evidence suggests to you that they will continue? How do you distinguish between trends and counter trends?

It seems that this relies on an "extended period of low volatility", which I think necessarily omits many possibilities for price performance.

[podyx]

All aboard!!
Choo Choo is about to start in the next 72 hours !!!
ALL in BTC , leveraged to the MAX!

[seljo]

All aboard!!
Choo Choo is about to start in the next 72 hours !!!
ALL in BTC , leveraged to the MAX!

I would go full fiat if I wasnt hodling.

[aminorex]

Risk is not the only thing people are evaluating with bitcoin.

I agree, and would add that risk is often taken to be synonymous with volatility, but of course that is a gross oversimplification used only because it leads to generally tractable, often closed-form  modeling, and because under tractable assumptions it is practically useful to estimate stopping and draw-down times, among other things.  Without it we wouldn't have black-sholes, etc., many obviously useful (albeit fundamentally flawed) models.

When actual risk is swamped by volaility, those who discount risk/reward on the basis of volatility will grossly overestimate risk, and those who estimate it more accurately have a huge advantage.  They will buy more and at higher prices, and therefore hold more when appreciation occurs.  They will hold through the volatility.  I think that many "weak hands" in bitcoin are the result of mistaking risk and vol.  This may be the only advantage which technical people have over wall street types:  They understand the fundamental risks better, and are less likely to mistake them with volatility.

[threecats]

It's not just risk. People are voting with their resources for a different world. Lord forbid such brave foolhardy actions. We hold these truths to be self evident ...

[delphic]

Also I know most people aren't interested but DOGE is seriously crashing right now.

uh...yeah

and I am very very dissapoint that this thread did not inform me in time

dumb thread...bah

 

I guess it is because this is the Bitcoin Wall thread.

if you have ever watched a Doge, you will know that it just pisses on walls.

[aminorex]

I did draw some charts to meet your conditions, but I don't understand why this should be predictive, rather than coincidental.

The theory underlying the hypothesis is that under low volatility conditions the longer-term trends are more likely to predominate.  The linear trend angle from the past period of low volatility represents what would be expected at a constant absolute rate of growth, when all the shorter-term noise is filtered out.  The logarithmic trend angle from the past period represents what would be expected at a constant compounding rate of growth, likewise.  Since the current rate of growth is between these two extremes, I consider the angle to be expected bounds for any extended period of low volatility.

Low volatility on what time frame? This can be true until those conditions cease to exist. What evidence suggests to you that they will continue? How do you distinguish between trends and counter trends?

It seems that this relies on an "extended period of low volatility", which I think necessarily omits many possibilities for price performance.

Agreed.  I don't have a model for volatility right now.  I'm just observing that vol is low, and using the present value of vol as the best estimator of the future value of vol -- which is often a justifiable assumption, but not in this case since there's no real vol arb available.  But pattern matching this post-spike curve to the previous one, the pattern continuation is a low-vol one for a good stretch of time.  Absent new information, I tend to use pattern recognition as a constructive prior.  Always looking for new information, however.

[adamstgBit]

I just come back from the bank. pretty sure they have no clue what they are doing. CCMF

[aminorex]

It's not just risk. People are voting with their resources for a different world. Lord forbid such brave foolhardy actions. We hold these truths to be self evident ...

While that may motivate you to invest in bitcoin, it probably won't prevent you from selling it if it looks like it's going to drawdown beyond your tolerance.  It may increase your tolerance, however.

[threecats]

It's not just risk. People are voting with their resources for a different world. Lord forbid such brave foolhardy actions. We hold these truths to be self evident ...

While that may motivate you to invest in bitcoin, it probably won't prevent you from selling it if it looks like it's going to drawdown beyond your tolerance.  It may increase your tolerance, however.

many rivers. one ocean.

[Tyson95]

How much do Americans move the Bitcoin markets? All of the good news that I've seen come from the US doesn't seem to impact prices much.

[EuroTrash]

K I know the consensus is bearish by now and we might be geared towards midterm steady decline... But that cute small bid wall at 600 on stamp ain't getting any smaller. 'Ts a few hours it's been there by now... Are panic sellers running out of coins to dump?