Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

HODL

Seriously man that picture was posted 2 pages ago. You should also reference it as it is not your picture.

[Sayeds56]

HODL

Seriously man that picture was posted 2 pages ago. You should also reference it as it is not your picture.

sorry I didn't see that post. Anyway I have deleted my post. thanks

[ivomm]

First of all already one year has past away in reaching the next halving.... second people really losing there mind fast.... first question do you really need the FIAT and if you really needed it, then 50-60k was a long period and nice price to take a little to cover stuff....

But to many negativity from experienced hodlers imho

They need a shift kick in the fucking ass.

Lack of testicles  or to quote a Staten Islander they have "Tick balls"

Don't think any of us have actually sold though, in fact I've been buying (everytime I get paid), because that's what you do in dips. LFC bought all his back too I think. But It's realistic to look at this run and think it may be over due to what we've seen.

In the last cycle ATH everybody was still adament the bull run was not over even after it had dipped 50%, there were some recoveries and I remember Bob retired on one of those. But many (Jay specifically) were denying it for a very long time and only after it went through the 6k level did that actually convince the die hards.

I think its sensible to think that a >50% dip could indicate a bear market. Hopefully, it's not long though and we see a 2013 scenario. A 2013 would make sense with what's going on in the world right now, and the interest we are seeing from the big names. But a 50% correction is pretty fucking decent, that's what happened to stocks in 2007.

I agree that this could be the beginning of  a bearish period. But it seems to me that you concentrate too much on the 50% correction as if this is something much different than the multiple 40%+ corrections we had in 2017. In fact, it is only 10% bigger. Why should it matter so much? Besides, we've had only 2 weeks of this dump. On the 3rd week we've had some recovery and we are now 15%+ the bottom. If each week that follows this 15% increase to the previous is being kept, then in 6-7 weeks the price should return to 60K. On the other hand, if we repeat the 2018 market which was after a 33x increase, the price may fall 70% which is around 19K. But is this realistic and for how long it will last? To stay one year and then another 50% drop below 10K? I really doubt that this is what is going to happen. But of course there are enough twitter pundits who have such wet dreams. So, in case bears try to dump below 30K, load your excanges with fiat and BTFD! Btw, the lower 2x line shows that the minimal price at the end of 2022 should be $51200. This should give you a hint that a prolonged bear market after only a 6x increase from the last year is theoretically improbable and practically impossible.

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

Many compare a bearish period to much with an actual bearmarket...

Many in need for their big boy pants 

[machasm]

Everyone keeps looking for some signs as to what King Daddy is going to do next.
Looking at past cycles/charts to try to put some strategy in place to buy and sell.
Only a couple of months ago everyone was screaming well over 100K for this cycle and now there is so much doom and gloom around.
What does it all mean?

I look at it this way.
Why did I get into bitcoin in the first place?
Was it to make a quick buck? Hell no!
I could see that the current financial system was f*cked and guess what?
It still is!!
I bought and held bitcoin because I believe in the future it can bring us all.
It just takes time. Along the way there will be many who enter the space to make a quick buck and this will be reflected in the swings in the market.
That doesn't matter in the long run.
Bitcoin remains the greatest store of value humanity (Satoshi) has invented yet and the world is slowly waking up to that fact.
I for one am not worried about the current price action and continue to HODL every Satoshi.
We will ride the storm as we have always done and that core group, us HODLers are the ones that ensure that btc can never go to zero.
Keep on believing brothers.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

"MMT LeAds TO ECoNomiC GrOwTh" Lol





source: https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1398608521260941316

[Wekkel]

I also think the chart looks ugly. But I’m not selling a (Bitcoin) dime. Tempted to buy some more but only at depressed prices (sub $25k). If we ever get there. Bitcoin tends to kick me in the nuts just when I think of doing a Mindrust dump 

[Biodom]

In a large picture, the question of a bear market is not even important. Should bitcoin be worth just 0.4% of all assets and less than 10% of gold? Of course, not.
Focusing on the current situation, it does feel like a bear market. The only question is re the duration of such: either a short one (local) or a longer one (this cycle bear market).
About this point, only time will show.

Overall, we have at least 3.46X wallets in 2021 than in late 2017, maybe much more than that (I am only going from blockchain.com numbers), yet the price is just 70% higher (at the moment).
Therefore, we are lagging the Metcalf's law and, therefore, are SEVERELY undervalued in comparison with 2017.
Albeit, since 2017 peak was overvaluation with the "fair value" back then at $6.7K, then, maybe 6.7X12.08 (square of 4X wallet number increase)=80.9K is the current "fair value".
Typically, bull markets "should" exceed fair valuation by 2-3X, hence 160-240K at the peak is quite reasonable. Should it necessarily come very soon? This part is unclear.

TLDR; according to Metcalf's law and prior "fair" valuation, fair value of bitcoin right now is $81K.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gyrsur]

please Girls, calm a bit down. no need to wear brown underwear.

we are still in accumulation according to Wyckoff.

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

[bitcoinPsycho]

Everyone keeps looking for some signs as to what King Daddy is going to do next.
Looking at past cycles/charts to try to put some strategy in place to buy and sell.
Only a couple of months ago everyone was screaming well over 100K for this cycle and now there is so much doom and gloom around.
What does it all mean?

I look at it this way.
Why did I get into bitcoin in the first place?
Was it to make a quick buck? Hell no!
I could see that the current financial system was f*cked and guess what?
It still is!!
I bought and held bitcoin because I believe in the future it can bring us all.
It just takes time. Along the way there will be many who enter the space to make a quick buck and this will be reflected in the swings in the market.
That doesn't matter in the long run.
Bitcoin remains the greatest store of value humanity (Satoshi) has invented yet and the world is slowly waking up to that fact.
I for one am not worried about the current price action and continue to HODL every Satoshi.
We will ride the storm as we have always done and that core group, us HODLers are the ones that ensure that btc can never go to zero.
Keep on believing brothers.

Post of the year . 100 wo smerits

[El duderino_]

In a large picture, the question of a bear market is not even important. Should bitcoin be worth just 0.4% of all assets and less than 10% of gold? Of course, not.
Focusing on the current situation, it does feel like a bear market. The only question is re the duration of such: either a short one (local) or a longer one (this cycle bear market).
About this point, only time will show.

Overall, we have at least 3.46X wallets in 2021 than in late 2017, maybe much more than that (I am only going from blockchain.com numbers), yet the price is just 70% higher (at the moment).
Therefore, we are lagging the Metcalf's law and, therefore, are SEVERELY undervalued in comparison with 2017.
Albeit, since 2017 peak was overvaluation with the "fair value" back then at $6.7K, then, maybe 6.7X12.08 (square of 4X wallet number increase)=80.9K is the current "fair value".
Typically, bull markets "should" exceed fair valuation by 2-3X, hence 160-240K at the peak is quite reasonable. Should it necessarily come very soon? This part is unclear.

TLDR; according to Metcalf's law and prior "fair" valuation, fair value of bitcoin right now is $81K.

Price will follow just as merit.... IOU

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Some of us are just still used to the rising from Q4/2020 to the beginning of Q2/2021.
It's like "bull's hangover", which is to be followed by recovery and finally you go to another party next weekend.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

It seems to me that the traders prematurely ejaculated dumped their bitcoins in the fear of the "certain" Sunday 20% dump. But in the Bitcoin world there are no certain things. If the bears fail to dump the price below 30K, the market will turn against them. I think that the last ATH is a fake top of this bull market, since the holders are not reacting the way bears hope. The long term hodlers are not disturbed and continue accumulating more cheap coins. The real top should be above 100K at least. The more it is delayed, the higher it will be. It may turn into a bull supercycle covering the next 1-2 halvings, with occasional 3-6 months fake bear periods. I don't see how 2018 will be repeated with the current ATH. Now everyone knows what Bitcoin is capable of, so apart from the imbecile trend followers, nobody with his sound mind will miss the chance to buy at the current prices or lower. Of course, for several weeks the big investors will wait for the dust to settle, but then they will return, leaving leverage shorters in dust and tears.

I agree with this.  The only worry for me is this seems like such an OBVIOUS headfake that I feel suspicious.

This price action has barely dented my thought that we are in for the "supercycle" or whatever you want to call "it's different this time"

I think there are three main schools of thought:

1. Bitcoin business as usual

A VERSION: We will see bitcoin perform as it has in past cycles.  A bull run after the halving, and then a crash into a "winter" period.  This crash could be 70-85% from ATHs. And it will last until the next halving.  Currently we are after the peak, which will have been early compared to previous runs, and are now entering the "winter" segment of the cycle.  We should expect BTC to find a bottom lower than this, but most likely higher than the previous ATH of 20k.

B VERSION: Alternately we could be seeing just a larger than average correction currently somewhere in the middle of this bull, and price will recover after shaking enough people out and go on to higher highs somewhere between 100-300k most likely.

2. Teenager bitcoin acts like baby bitcoin did

This is a more extreme version of 1b.  The bull is not over but will take place in two distinct runs like the 2013 market did.  The first run is followed by a sharp selloff then a 3-6 month consolidation period. After this we get a push to the 100-300 levels as previously mentioned.

3. It's different this time

The most notable aspect of this idea is we never really see a crypto "winter" in the cycle.  But instead we see a volatile climb upward.  Personally I would expect to see recurring pullbacks of diminishing magnitude. Of course things do not tend to be this perfect but we could see a 60%, then 50, then 40 series of pullbacks all making higher highs and lower lows.  Obviously, this is in the somewhat unprecedented "It's going up forever Laura" category.  It breaks a lot of fundamental rules about asset prices.

One reason I think the last scenario is possible is we are talking about a never seen before asset class.  It is actually designed to act this way.  And now that enough people know about it it is going to be hard for sustained low prices to exist.  We are talking about the yardstick by which the world measures value.  In the end, as all the old school econ doofuses are saying, it just does not make sense for it to keep exploding and then losing huge amounts of value forever. Or "BTC cannot be a reliable store of value as volatile as it is"

But a pure, pristine, 100% limited, math based asset like bitcoin is not like anything the world has ever seen before, therefore a chart that does not act like assets of the past is also a distinct possibility.

I will not lie.  I am HOPING for #3. 

1A would crush the most souls though.

But really... does 1A make any sense at ALL in this world right now?  Do we really think the whole world gets a 3rd or 4th chance like this?  One great argument AGAINST 1A is even just a 70% crash from ATH brings us to <= the last cycle high.  This would be a "It's different this time" that makes MUCH less sense than the supercycle.

[Hueristic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anIZ9bCe1SY

or

https://odysee.com/@AlphaNerd:8/why-most-people-don't-actually-own:9

[serveria.com]

Just a little HODling motivation for you guys. I still haven't sold a single sat since 2011. I was going to sell (10% or less) at $50k in late 2020 but I changed my mind and set sell orders to $80k (prolly also mentioned it here on wo). So in case we're really entering a bear market (NOT!) I'm seriously screwed. Unlike many long-term hodlers here on WO who have spent some part of their stashes on lakes, ranches, cruise ships etc I'm still 100% in HODL mode. So before you whine and post some crybaby BS think about some hardcore bull hodlers with balls of steel.