It seems to me that the traders prematurely ejaculated dumped their bitcoins in the fear of the "certain" Sunday 20% dump. But in the Bitcoin world there are no certain things. If the bears fail to dump the price below 30K, the market will turn against them. I think that the last ATH is a fake top of this bull market, since the holders are not reacting the way bears hope. The long term hodlers are not disturbed and continue accumulating more cheap coins. The real top should be above 100K at least. The more it is delayed, the higher it will be. It may turn into a bull supercycle covering the next 1-2 halvings, with occasional 3-6 months fake bear periods. I don't see how 2018 will be repeated with the current ATH. Now everyone knows what Bitcoin is capable of, so apart from the imbecile trend followers, nobody with his sound mind will miss the chance to buy at the current prices or lower. Of course, for several weeks the big investors will wait for the dust to settle, but then they will return, leaving leverage shorters in dust and tears.
I agree with this. The only worry for me is this seems like such an OBVIOUS headfake that I feel suspicious.
This price action has barely dented my thought that we are in for the "supercycle" or whatever you want to call "it's different this time"
I think there are three main schools of thought:
1. Bitcoin business as usualA VERSION: We will see bitcoin perform as it has in past cycles. A bull run after the halving, and then a crash into a "winter" period. This crash could be 70-85% from ATHs. And it will last until the next halving. Currently we are
after the peak, which will have been early compared to previous runs, and are now entering the "winter" segment of the cycle. We should expect BTC to find a bottom lower than this, but most likely higher than the previous ATH of 20k.
B VERSION: Alternately we could be seeing just a larger than average correction currently somewhere in the middle of this bull, and price will recover after shaking enough people out and go on to higher highs somewhere between 100-300k most likely.
2. Teenager bitcoin acts like baby bitcoin didThis is a more extreme version of 1b. The bull is not over but will take place in two distinct runs like the 2013 market did. The first run is followed by a sharp selloff then a 3-6 month consolidation period. After this we get a push to the 100-300 levels as previously mentioned.
3. It's different this timeThe most notable aspect of this idea is we never really see a crypto "winter" in the cycle. But instead we see a volatile climb upward. Personally I would expect to see recurring pullbacks of diminishing magnitude. Of course things do not tend to be this perfect but we could see a 60%, then 50, then 40 series of pullbacks all making higher highs and lower lows. Obviously, this is in the somewhat unprecedented "It's going up forever Laura" category. It breaks a lot of fundamental rules about asset prices.
One reason I think the last scenario is possible is we are talking about a never seen before asset class. It is actually designed to act this way. And now that enough people know about it it is going to be hard for sustained low prices to exist. We are talking about the yardstick by which the world measures value. In the end, as all the old school econ doofuses are saying, it just does not make sense for it to keep exploding and then losing huge amounts of value forever. Or "BTC cannot be a reliable store of value as volatile as it is"
But a pure, pristine, 100% limited, math based asset like bitcoin is not like anything the world has ever seen before, therefore a chart that does not act like assets of the past is also a distinct possibility.
I will not lie. I am HOPING for #3.
1A would crush the most souls though.
But really... does 1A make any sense at ALL in this world right now? Do we really think the whole world gets a 3rd or 4th chance like this? One great argument AGAINST 1A is even just a 70% crash from ATH brings us to <= the last cycle high. This would be a "It's different this time" that makes MUCH less sense than the supercycle.
Poll
