Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I guess the moment has come.

I've been a "lurker" for a year now, maybe even more, been following the forum but mostly this thread in particular and a bit of the Italian board on a daily basis, with the occasion of the new ATH break today, seeing the Helicopter being adopted again after some months just gave me an inner feeling I had to do it... I decided to finally sign up my account here on bitcointalk.

What else can I say other than a big hello to everyone, and keep the #hodl strong!

Have a great day/night  

Welcome to joy-town!

Man it's been a day. Can't believe we spent 6 months in the wilderness there.

Thanks!
Joy-town, this perfectly represents the W.O. even from how I've experienced it from the "outside", finally I can be an active part of this.

Looking forward  

Yes... maybe give us a bit of your background and introduction to BTC.. of course, you do not need to break opsec or provide actual numbers, but just to get some ideas... about some struggles that you may have had.. like all of us in accumulating BTC perhaps and making mistakes along the way.. .. and whatever current plans that you might have...

Sure there are some of us who might be losing touch with normies.. and I suppose that the longer that we have been accumulating and holding, then we are going to have some of those kinds of troubles, even with relatively modest investments of $10 per week over 8 years or something like that.

The coin remains strong.

One of those moments in which we have to recognize and appreciate that "the trend is your friend", and you are not doing yourself any favors if you are betting against the corn in times like these.

I hear there are special "rich people therapists" which help people come to terms with their absurd levels of wealth.

I'll have to fly one to my private island, yes.

i thought private islands always came with therapists.

or is it some sort of "upsell" thing?

Gosh.. all the things that we have to learn about... including what comes with or does not come with such private islands... 

Paul Tudor Jones says crypto is his preferred inflation hedge over gold right now
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/paul-tudor-jones-says-crypto-is-his-preferred-inflation-hedge-over-gold-right-now.html

What a shock.

I glanced at that write-up, and watched the 2.5 minute video, and PTJ does seem to be struggling somewhat with being able to use the word bitcoin, and seems to show that he is having some trouble in terms of understanding what differentiates bitcoin from "crypto".,. even though he does seem to be buying bitcoin rather than any other kinds of crypto coins.. but he is not exactly clear about specifics of what he is doing...

He also seems to NOT really understand (or want to say) the difference between some kind of financial product (such as an ETF) that represents future prices even while he does assert that holding the actual asset (referring to bitcoin) may well be the better way to get bitcoin exposure (and learning about how to hold and manage holdings, too)...

He may have learned that it is better for him to be vague about what he is doing in terms of potential legal jeopardy...  - especially if he is responding to the media - rather than getting too much into specifics and be accused of pumping a product that he is in..

[AlcoHoDL]

2nd-order underdamped response. Typical.

All we need now is a real pole in the right half of the s-plane, to shoot the price up to +∞.

Math & science.

[coinlocket$]

To celebrate the new ATH I did this video, maybe you have already seen something like this but was fun for me to do.

Click to play if you want to see it.

Happy new ATH

[podyx]

What about that double top that you had been expecting (hoping for), podyx?

hahahahahahaha


sucks to be uie pooie.

 

I'm all in on btc and have been since 2013.

But I got money flowing in from other business endavours which is why I hope to keep stacking up at $50k before we take off to $500k

[Mbitr]

To celebrate the new ATH I did this video, maybe you have already seen something like this but was fun for me to do.

Click to play if you want to see it.

Happy new ATH

Great info graphic 
Sad to see XRP so high up , but glad to see BSV never make it on the chart 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

[JayJuanGee]

InvestAnswers just said something I've been thinking about for a while.

Although paying off my mortgage is something I could do with the BTC gains he pointed out if you borrow against 2-3% it's really (almost) free money considering the massive inflation rate.
Michael Saylor has been talking about the near zero business loans also.
At least mortgages for individuals are still low, unlike ridiculous credit card rates.

Furthermore I believe BTC will go much higher.
A $1 million BTC and even $10 million BTC in the next 5-10-15 years will not surprise me. Well before my mortgage ends anyway.

Also, these free interest loans on furniture etc make sense since you will really pay less over the entire period rather than in 1 chunk today, again due to inflation.

For you, yes paying on a low interest mortgage while letting your bitcoin ride is probably the way to go for now.

But keep in mind, that you may still want to pay if off earlier than 30 years.

Here's why: Most people don't anticipate ever getting laid off (even once, much several times) and don't believe ageism is even a thing.

You really think that you'll stay employed for 30 years solidly straight with enough income (adjusted for insane inflation) to keep paying that mortgage every month/year and still have enough income left over to survive? You think that you'll be payed the same or more at 60 yrs of age, than you were making at 30? Think again. The time of 30 year careers is over. More like 15 at best, and then you have a career crisis.

Exactly. That's why I have a rule: Never ever get loans. Want a better car? Save money, invest in Bitcoin, whatever, until you can afford to pay the full amount. Want a better house and can't buy it? Stay at your current house until you can afford the better one. I don't want to have to pay back some bank for decades and being forever tied to them. The only loan I would consider getting is to buy a house if I didn't own a house. Fortunately I own my house. It's not the most luxurious house, but it's mine, and I don't owe anyone anything.

...and Bitcoin can greatly help do the above!

Regarding your house.... @AlcoHoDL

You may well need to be upgrading soon^tm. 

#justsaying

[edited out]

Great job, JJG, my man! Stinky bears exposed. Now desperately trying to join the party. That's FOMO at it's best!  

ah ha!!!!

Of course, each of us have some guilt in terms of re-writing history in a way that is more favorable to our own circumstances or where we might have been financially/psychologically at time 1 versus time 2 or versus time 3.  I catch myself doing the same.. and some of it is more innocent than others in terms of just reframing based on subsequent learnings that might not have been part of the conscious thinking during time 1 even though some of the learning may have come in time 2 and other parts of the learning came in time 3.. and of course, once some of the facts develop in time 2 or time 3, then some of the understanding of what had been happening in time 1 becomes more clear based on how the facts end up playing out... but we did not know (or might not have even adequately considered or given enough weight to how the facts ended up playing out in time 2 and/or time 3).  

I would not even be suggesting that in time 1, ONLY giving a 30% likelihood to how the facts would play out in time 2 and 20% in time 3, and then that might only add up to some even lower probability would have even been the wrong assessment, because the actual way that the facts play out does not mean that the assessment in time 1 was wrong.. and so there is likely quite a bit of justification in reassessing from time to time, especially once we see how facts actually end up playing out as compared/contrasted with how we had predicted them to play out at various earlier points of time.

I do believe that some guys are more extreme in their selectively remembering "I was there all along," or back when BTC was $250 in 2015 for the whole year, I was "stacking like a mo fo".. and the reality of the matter was that a lot of us were scared as fuck in 2015 and we were not "stacking like a mo fo" and the more retrospectively bullish of us who had gotten into BTC in the past year or two (meaning 2013/2014) were either just HODLing or stacking a bit here and there from time to time while hoping for the price to go up and to bring our portfolios out of the red... of course the pre-2013 HODLers were in better shape, but not all of them fared well during that period either in terms of "mistakes being made" based on psychology and/or taking some financial risks.

[cygan]

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month

january 2021 - check✔

february 2021 - check✔

march 2021 - check✔

april 2021 - check✔

may 2021 - failed✖

june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year

july 2021 - failed✖ 

august 2021 - failed✖ - 4x ath followed by 4x without ath - its now time again for 4x ath

september 2021 - failed✖ - BTC is dead

ocuptober 2021 - check✔

[lightfoot]

So yeah. I've been debt averse all my life. Maybe it's better to take on some debt than sell some corn. Thinking about this.

I view debt as risk. It can place you in a bad position if things go wrong (it's basically a slightly different take on options trading). Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done but consider all the angles.

Yeah, that's how I normally think of it, and that really served me well in 2008 when everything went to shit and everyone got foreclosed/squeezed. But if I had the choice of selling 100k in coin and paying 20% taxes or just borrowing $80k at 4%, the 100k means no more bitcoin appreciation (yeah I had this thought at 18k too) 20k down the drain while the 80k loan would be >4k a year interest with the bitcoin continuing to grow.

Side point is I don't need 80k or 800k or whatever (ok, maybe 8k for some pretty watches). So maybe I'll just let bitcoin sit and giggle a lot or something.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

What about that double top that you had been expecting (hoping for), podyx?

hahahahahahaha


sucks to be uie pooie.

 

I'm all in on btc and have been since 2013.

But I got money flowing in from other business endavours which is why I hope to keep stacking up at $50k before we take off to $500k

Huh.. .if you have been stacking since 2013, then it would seem that you benefit way more from the BTC price going up rather than down, and why would there be any kind of desire to stack a few more at $50k-ish.. hardly makes sense to me... remember what shroomkit used to say.. something like:  "everyone cheering for cheap coins to pick up a few more 0.1 BTC or whatever, and now you got your cheap coins"...

Anyhow, if your stash of BTC is 10 or 100, and then you have $50k of cash coming in so you could buy a whole bitcoin and either increase your stash by 10% (hopefully you are not stacking 10% especially since you had 8 years to get in) or maybe you end up stacking an additional 1% to your stash (and still seems strange to be getting excited to have the potential to add a whole 1% to your stash after having so much time to already pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity), and in the end, the stacking of more sats at these prices for someone who has had 8 years-ish seem like a big so fucking what in the whole scheme of things and your past opportunities to stack sats (and furthermore a BIG SO WHAT regarding buying those extra sats at $50k versus buying them at $66k),

You want all of the rest of us (stackers, HODLers, preparers for UP) to suffer merely so that you can pick up a few more sats?  especially if you had already been stacking since 2013 .. like you mentioned....   get real, no?

In other words, haven't you had enough time to stack sats by now?  We are going up.. get with it..,. and no need to be greedy....       Save some sats for the newbies to be buying in the $80k to $100k range, if they  are with it enough to get in before we hit $500k....      

And chill...

So yeah. I've been debt averse all my life. Maybe it's better to take on some debt than sell some corn. Thinking about this.

I view debt as risk. It can place you in a bad position if things go wrong (it's basically a slightly different take on options trading). Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done but consider all the angles.

Yeah, that's how I normally think of it, and that really served me well in 2008 when everything went to shit and everyone got foreclosed/squeezed. But if I had the choice of selling 100k in coin and paying 20% taxes or just borrowing $80k at 4%, the 100k means no more bitcoin appreciation (yeah I had this thought at 18k too) 20k down the drain while the 80k loan would be >4k a year interest with the bitcoin continuing to grow.

Side point is I don't need 80k or 800k or whatever (ok, maybe 8k for some pretty watches). So maybe I'll just let bitcoin sit and giggle a lot or something.

Nothing wrong with giggling.

For sure, it will make some differences regarding how many BTC that you have and how close you are to fuck you status, or how far you are above fuck you status.

Let's use your round numbers... of considering some kind of purchase or investment of $100k.

And let's also use $2 billion (whoops.. I meant to say $2 million) as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

Let's also hypothesize that you do not have other assets/currencies upon which to spend, so you are considering  spending from your BTC.

The quantity of your BTC is going to make a difference, and also how you calculate the value of your BTC holdings.

For example, if you calculate based on spot BTC price, you might well be uncomfortable with spending $100k merely because you have reached fuck you status at $30k (66.7 BTC) and you currently happen to have double fuck you status with BTC prices over $60k.

However, if you have 10x fuck you status, then you might well not be as worried to shave off $100k and pay $20k taxes.  That would be having around 333 BTC.  

Similar would be true if you used the 208-week moving average price (currently at $17k) as your measurement of your reaching fuck you status - that would be 117.65 coins and if you had double that number of coins, then you would have even fewer concerns about shaving off $100k of value and spending $20k on taxes.  

Part of my point is that how much you have could make a difference in terms of how you might weigh the trade-offs.. and also how you calculate your value, could also bring some levels of comfort in terms of feeling psychologically comfortable with shaving off some value... .. and surely there could be an issue if all of your value is in BTC too.. especially if you are already feeling like you are close to entry fuck you status, exceeding fuck you status or even multiple times exceeding fuck you status, so in order to feel somewhat more psychologically comfortable with your BTC, it may well serve you better to own some other kinds of assets, whether we are talking about property, equities, PMs, cash or whatever floats your boat (boats?.. of course some assets hold value better than others and some assets have ongoing expenses to maintain, too)

[Arriemoller]

667, the neighbor of the beast.

[LoyceV]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

You call 3 Comma Club entry-level?

[JayJuanGee]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

You call 3 Comma Club entry-level?

Whoops.. I meant two million...

I better go back and fix that faux pas freudian slip regarding the size of my own stash.. .hahahahaha

[lightfoot]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

[JayJuanGee]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

I have now fixed it in my original post..

Forgive me this one time I made one mistaken character out of the millions billions of characters (when calculating the truthfulness of my assertion remember that pictures are worth thousands of characters) that I have typed in this here forum.

 

[lightfoot]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

I have now fixed it in my original post..

Forgive me this one time I made one mistaken character out of the millions billions of characters (when calculating the truthfulness of my assertion remember that pictures are worth thousands of characters) that I have typed in this here forum.

 

To be honest, I turned it over in my head for a little while: I guess if we're talking "Fuck you I'm leaving this nation state for another one who will be glad to have me", then 2b might be a number"

But as for the rest yeah, scale matters. If you had say 60btc and BTC fell to 15k then yeah you could still pay off the loan no problem but you would be out of the bitcoin game. It's an interesting thought experiment.

[El duderino_]

And let's also use $2 billion as your hypothetical entry-level fuck you status.

2 billion is fuck you status? *Wow*

Being free of debbt is already FY status for me...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation