Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[klondike_bar]

objectively we are in a b*** market.

Horse shit. Objectively we are 40% up from the low less than a month ago, >100% up from where were were 4 and a half months agoince then we've added millions of wallets, features, upgrades, merchants, and ATMs.  

ya but we are like 60% down from the ATH and appear to be continuing to drop.

it doesn't scare me, but its depressing...
i just don't get why people are selling!
even with the current infrastructure i believe bitcoin should be 10K
We can spend them very easily on anything, big shit too, you can pay your rent in bitcoins, you can buy F'ing mammoth tusks FFS, mtgox and other bad exchanges have been weeded out, and now we hear talk of "wall street grade" exchanges coming online. Shit is growing & getting better at a phenomenal rate, it doesn't make any sense to me... we should be at 10K already. this is why i'm a buyer, if you told me last year i'd be buying 600$ bitcoin i'd lol hard and say that i would be a seller at 600$ but here i am buying at 600$, because wow.

thats basically my POV as well. There is nothing fundamentally worse about bitcoin - in fact things are much better with infrastructure, ATMs, and many small retailers getting interested.

The real problem is the public opinion - there has been no good news in a while, everything is blurred or focused ont he incompetence of GOX. and while gox keep shoving its foot in thier mouth, all of bitcoin looks less beautiful.

I have two techniques for this:
1) sell a few coins at btc-e or another exchange, just in case it goes lower. if it doesn't, who cares you hedged your bets slightly in case.
2) step back and look at the big picture: more people know what a bitcoin is. they dont know much about it, and most give me a sly 'hows your bitcoins doing?' recently, but the point is people know. Those who it interests will read up on it and start looking for a place to buy in.

i think we are not yet at the bottom, but that we are close. Weve entered an area with major support twice before, and I feel like we could see one or two more bear rushes to slam BTC/USD down to about $500 before the media decides to turn around and give it a few positive articles to swing it up and get some attention

In decmber, I though we would be $1500 now, and >$3000 by year end. I still think we will be $3000 by the end of the year, but the individual dips are hard to estimate without being in charge of a media outlet (sadface'd lol)

[NewLiberty]

During the 2013 trough, the absolute bottom was about 2 weeks after the news hacking.
I suspect that buyers over the next week and a half will be among the best of 2014.

[boumalo]

The price is going down, the question is when will it stop

I will start buying soon and all the way down, "They" are probably preparing for a huge bull market in the summer

[Dalmar]

Surprised there haven't been any big bull trap bounces yet.

[seriouscoin]

I dont get why people sell right now, maybe they are getting greedy thinking about dat juicy 400 or something

Its very risky to sell now, if you want to sell to buy low , you already missed the train.

Its about long haul from now. If it goes lower, i will put some more fiat in and hold for 1+ year

[Broseph Stalin]

I dont get why people sell right now, maybe they are getting greedy thinking about dat juicy 400 or something

Its very risky to sell now, if you want to sell to buy low , you already missed the train.

Its about long haul from now. If it goes lower, i will put some more fiat in and hold for 1+ year

The coins that I have already are long term ones, so I won't sell them. The ones that I would buy if we get to mid $400 and lower would also go into my long term stash, so I wouldn't be selling those either.

Unless the fundamentals change in some very negative way, I really don't see a good reason to sell .. well, other than taking profits if you day trade. But for investors, there's no good reason.. only bad emotional reasons caused by FUD.

[podyx]

i feel like price won't go up because everybody seem to know price will go up sooner or later

is this a legit concern?

[CMMPro]

objectively we are in a b*** market.

Horse shit. Objectively we are 40% up from the low less than a month ago, >100% up from where were were 4 and a half months agoince then we've added millions of wallets, features, upgrades, merchants, and ATMs.  

ya but we are like 60% down from the ATH and appear to be continuing to drop.

it doesn't scare me, but its depressing...
i just don't get why people are selling!
even with the current infrastructure i believe bitcoin should be 10K
We can spend them very easily on anything, big shit too, you can pay your rent in bitcoins, you can buy F'ing mammoth tusks FFS, mtgox and other bad exchanges have been weeded out, and now we hear talk of "wall street grade" exchanges coming online. Shit is growing & getting better at a phenomenal rate, it doesn't make any sense to me... we should be at 10K already. this is why i'm a buyer, if you told me last year i'd be buying 600$ bitcoin i'd lol hard and say that i would be a seller at 600$ but here i am buying at 600$, because wow.

Adam, you of all people know we have to hit total despair before it will turn around...after the crash in April it didn't turn around until I basically said to myself "screw it, it's probably going to be worth nothing but I'm going to ride it into the fucking ground regardless", it was the epitome of despair, totally giving in the the fact that almost all of my investment was lost....and I was willing to throw it all away because I still believed in it...rather than sell at such a low value.

Until we hit the point where no one gives a shit if it goes lower, it won't go back up.
I think we are starting to see this in terms of no volume on the markets.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[seriouscoin]

objectively we are in a b*** market.

Horse shit. Objectively we are 40% up from the low less than a month ago, >100% up from where were were 4 and a half months agoince then we've added millions of wallets, features, upgrades, merchants, and ATMs.  

ya but we are like 60% down from the ATH and appear to be continuing to drop.

it doesn't scare me, but its depressing...
i just don't get why people are selling!
even with the current infrastructure i believe bitcoin should be 10K
We can spend them very easily on anything, big shit too, you can pay your rent in bitcoins, you can buy F'ing mammoth tusks FFS, mtgox and other bad exchanges have been weeded out, and now we hear talk of "wall street grade" exchanges coming online. Shit is growing & getting better at a phenomenal rate, it doesn't make any sense to me... we should be at 10K already. this is why i'm a buyer, if you told me last year i'd be buying 600$ bitcoin i'd lol hard and say that i would be a seller at 600$ but here i am buying at 600$, because wow.

Adam, you of all people know we have to hit total despair before it will turn around...after the crash in April it didn't turn around until I basically said to myself "screw it, it's probably going to be worth nothing but I'm going to ride it into the fucking ground regardless", it was the epitome of despair, totally giving in the the fact that almost all of my investment was lost....and I was willing to throw it all away because I still believed in it...rather than sell at such a low value.

Until we hit the point where no one gives a shit if it goes lower, it won't go back up.
I think we are starting to see this in terms of no volume on the markets.

You nailed right on the head. Whoever wants to "cash-out", they already did.

[tarmi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

[seriouscoin]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapes

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

[klondike_bar]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

everyone watches the car crash until its over, then they go in to loot the survivors.

I just bought some at $560 - I think we are at the bottom, the charts flattening out and weekends are notorious for random moves on no volume.

take a step back - things are well aligned to start putting out positive spin again and knock this up by 20% in just a few day's work. For traders, that is a golden opportunity, considering its dragged  down 25% or so in the last week of bad news. Most of the money in the markets is traders, rather than new buyers or sellers of old coin.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

we have had very few bitcoin days destroyed in the last 2 weeks - this means that old wallets are still staying put and that the trading volume is mostly buying and selling the same coins around

[tarmi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapes

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes, but I bought them at 32. I also sold at 1000, 800, 630.

No pain really, cause I dont marry my positions.

[seriouscoin]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapes

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes, but I bought them at 32. I also sold at 1000, 800, 630.

No pain really, cause I dont marry my positions.

So you meant you bought back at higher price than you sold initially ? then sold again for abit of profits?

Its ok, rise and repeat.

[seleme]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapes

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes, but I bought them at 32. I also sold at 1000, 800, 630.

No pain really, cause I dont marry my positions.

So you meant you bought back at higher price than you sold initially ? then sold again for abit of profits?

Its ok, rise and repeat.

Profit is profit.

[podyx]

Profit is profit.

profit is profit but money is money

[tarmi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapesđ

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes, but I bought them at 32. I also sold at 1000, 800, 630.

No pain really, cause I dont marry my positions.

So you meant you bought back at higher price than you sold initially ? then sold again for abit of profits?

Its ok, rise and repeat.

You too annoying and aggressive perma bull for my taste.  

I understand your concerns,  but I think you have better things to do then worring about my positions and stash.

Kiss

[JorgeStolfi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Trade volume does not have much to do with value or price; it has to do with changing perceptions of the market about value.

The bids and asks of each trader reflect his expectations about the future value of the item, in some time frame.  As long as every trader keeps the same expectations, there will be no sustained volume.

Trades will happen only when traders change their expectations (or when a new investor comes in, which is the same as an infinitely skeptic trader becoming more optimistic).  A trader will raise his bids when he becomes more optimistic, lower his asks when he becomes more pessimistic; and that is when trades happen.

Right now, the expected value of 1 BTC, in the opinion of almost all the Bitstamp traders with coins to sell, is at least 559 USD (minus fees); and the expected value among all traders with money to buy is at most 555 USD (plus fees).

The downtrend means that, by and large, most traders are becoming more pessimistic with time.  Right now, traders with spare money believe that the chance of the price reaching 1,000 USD/BTC (say, in the next 2 years) is less than 60%, and the chance of it reaching 10,000 USD/BTC is less than 6%.  Two months ago they may have put those chances at 80% and 8%, respectively.

[mah87]

This crashing no doubt about it