Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Profit is profit.

profit is profit but money is money

[tarmi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Oh its you again, welcome back

Had you not "cashed out" around $100 mark you would have made alot more.

I recall you sold lot b4 that as well.

I feel your pain, so go on with your bearish campaign.

Typical sour grapesđ

" I didnt plant the grapes and i cant afford them, they must have been sour"

Yes, but I bought them at 32. I also sold at 1000, 800, 630.

No pain really, cause I dont marry my positions.

So you meant you bought back at higher price than you sold initially ? then sold again for abit of profits?

Its ok, rise and repeat.

You too annoying and aggressive perma bull for my taste.  

I understand your concerns,  but I think you have better things to do then worring about my positions and stash.

Kiss

[JorgeStolfi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Trade volume does not have much to do with value or price; it has to do with changing perceptions of the market about value.

The bids and asks of each trader reflect his expectations about the future value of the item, in some time frame.  As long as every trader keeps the same expectations, there will be no sustained volume.

Trades will happen only when traders change their expectations (or when a new investor comes in, which is the same as an infinitely skeptic trader becoming more optimistic).  A trader will raise his bids when he becomes more optimistic, lower his asks when he becomes more pessimistic; and that is when trades happen.

Right now, the expected value of 1 BTC, in the opinion of almost all the Bitstamp traders with coins to sell, is at least 559 USD (minus fees); and the expected value among all traders with money to buy is at most 555 USD (plus fees).

The downtrend means that, by and large, most traders are becoming more pessimistic with time.  Right now, traders with spare money believe that the chance of the price reaching 1,000 USD/BTC (say, in the next 2 years) is less than 60%, and the chance of it reaching 10,000 USD/BTC is less than 6%.  Two months ago they may have put those chances at 80% and 8%, respectively.

[mah87]

This crashing no doubt about it

[spooderman]

[tarmi]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Trade volume does not have much to do with value or price; it has to do with changing perceptions of the market about value.

The bids and asks of each trader reflect his expectations about the future value of the item, in some time frame.  As long as every trader keeps the same expectations, there will be no sustained volume.

My point exactly.  Low volume at this level indicates the level of expectations of  price moving up

[Adrian-x]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

[billyjoeallen]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

[EvilPanda]

objectively we are in a b*** market.

To everyone who read this as "objectively we are in a BEAR market", that is not what wetroof is saying. This statement is a joke. Literally. b*** could be bull or it could be bear. Interesting to notice how everyone who has replied to this post this far has read it as bear though...

Could be bullshit as well

[windjc]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0

After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight.

I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly.

If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

[podyx]

this is depressing

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it

go big or go home, no?

[JorgeStolfi]

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future.  If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months .  If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$. 

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic".  I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope.  And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

[podyx]

because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

very juicy indeed

[podyx]

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future.  If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months .  If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$. 

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic".  I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope.  And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

Well i'm only 19 and still live home so it wouldnt be a huge blow to lose it but it still would suck major dick

[windjc]

because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

very juicy indeed

You think I'm the only one? Hardly.

The bulls could only run so far for so long. The same is true with the bears.

Bears like to talk about 2011. Its what they hang their hat on.

How many people were investing millions into bitcoin in 2011? I would doubt if the answer was more than 1 or 2. Probably zero. How many people are doing that now. A lot.

How many start-ups internationally existed funded solely for bitcoin businesses in 2011. How many today - hundreds, perhaps thousands.

I could go on and on. Sure, the bears could be right about this being another 2011.

I think it is much more likely that they are as "delusional" as all the to-the-moon bulls back in December.

We will see.

[Kramerc]

objectively we are in a b*** market.

Horse shit. Objectively we are 40% up from the low less than a month ago, >100% up from where were were 4 and a half months agoince then we've added millions of wallets, features, upgrades, merchants, and ATMs.  

ya but we are like 60% down from the ATH and appear to be continuing to drop.

it doesn't scare me, but its depressing...
i just don't get why people are selling!
even with the current infrastructure i believe bitcoin should be 10K
We can spend them very easily on anything, big shit too, you can pay your rent in bitcoins, you can buy F'ing mammoth tusks FFS, mtgox and other bad exchanges have been weeded out, and now we hear talk of "wall street grade" exchanges coming online. Shit is growing & getting better at a phenomenal rate, it doesn't make any sense to me... we should be at 10K already. this is why i'm a buyer, if you told me last year i'd be buying 600$ bitcoin i'd lol hard and say that i would be a seller at 600$ but here i am buying at 600$, because wow.

Adam, you of all people know we have to hit total despair before it will turn around...after the crash in April it didn't turn around until I basically said to myself "screw it, it's probably going to be worth nothing but I'm going to ride it into the fucking ground regardless", it was the epitome of despair, totally giving in the the fact that almost all of my investment was lost....and I was willing to throw it all away because I still believed in it...rather than sell at such a low value.

Until we hit the point where no one gives a shit if it goes lower, it won't go back up.
I think we are starting to see this in terms of no volume on the markets.

I think we are nearing that point in time (not sure about the price though) too. Besides your low volume observation, another thing that pops in my mind is the number of pages I have to read to keep up with this thread, which is down by more than 50% of what it was 1-2 months ago, even during the 800s price stability. So interest level is definitely decreasing, even for the uber-bulls that we all are (even fonzie, jorge is the exception that confirms the rule).

This is my first bubble, so I lack past experience, but I think most of the seasoned users here just got used to the bubble pattern and learned not to panic at this stage, because nothing has changed in the fundamentals of bitcoin and the adoption rate is growing steadily. Instead, they just take time off because speculation is simply not as profitable as during other periods, and invest their energy into something else. They'll soon be back though, and so will the 30 pages of Wall Observer spam filled with pics of burning trains and Dorian memes.

[billyjoeallen]

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future.  If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months .  If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$. 

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic".  I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope.  And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

You spend an awful lot of time and effort being skeptical of Bitcoin. Is there anything you're optimistic about or are you just a generally skeptical guy?

[aminorex]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

Trade volume does not have much to do with value or price; it has to do with changing perceptions of the market about value.

Unless you take care to distinguish senses of the word "value" this line of reasoning could lead you astray.  I think in your post, you confused different senses of "value":

Right now, the expected value of 1 BTC, in the opinion of almost all the Bitstamp traders with coins to sell, is at least 559 USD (minus fees); and the expected value among all traders with money to buy is at most 555 USD (plus fees).

The downtrend means that, by and large, most traders are becoming more pessimistic with time.  

The statement above seems obviously false, in fact perverse.  The lower prices go, the more optimistic a rational trader should become.

[Kramerc]

Profit is profit.

I wish I employed this more often. All in due time, I guess.

[Walsoraj]

Price was on a steady decline last summer until it become clear that Gox's excuses for fiat withdrawal delays were bullshit. We don't have similar circumstances to put the brakes on capitulation this time.