Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pjviitas]

When will people start buying bitcoin again?

[aminorex]

When will people start buying bitcoin again?

We are buying bitcoin.  We have achieved price stability.  The fixed exchange rate is now $563 USD/BTC.

[JayJuanGee]

I personally feel that all business startups are Ponzi schemes, say computer, internet, etc. Ponzi is the pattern how the universe operates. It's not a matter of good or bad but a matter of true or false. A Ponzi scheme can only be true by more and more people joining in to the extent that whole community can not live without it. I hope I'm correct here.

No, a Ponzi must *always* have more people joining to continue. Bitcoin is not yet self-sustaining but would be able to form a stable economy with a small proportion of the population it could eventually reach. Startups likewise. If a stock actually pays dividends, it doesn't even have to rely on the "greater fool" thing to benefit stock holders. Unfortunately government tax policy discourages this.

Richy_T:  I like your straight-forward explanation of how a ponzi scheme is different from other kinds of investments... and yes, with a Ponzi scheme.. the payout is so high that the remainder of the investment pool is continuing to go further in the red b/c the payouts are so high and the money in the system is NOT working b/c it is NOT being invested nor earning.   

With bitcoin, there is a certain need to expand the number of users at least at the rate of the new coin production (which is currently a little more than 10% per year), and the value of BTC would likely become more stagnant if the pool of people in BTC remained at a set amount (let's say 100,000 plus 10% per year).  But even in that scenario of a stagnant user base, bitcoin would increase in value relative to fiat b/c the fiat is continuing to become less valuable and infrastructure is continuing to be built around BTC. 

Definitely, I'm gonna have to use your straight-forward explanation when that Ponzi term is thrown around willy-nilly to attempt to apply, when it does NOT.

There is a certain level of reality that is helpful to perpetuate the Ponzi scheme myth for btc - including the fact that there are currently about 10% more coins every year, for the next few years, until that production rate is reduced again in 2017, right?  Also, the value of bitcoin goes up more, if the user base expands more rapidly than 10% per year, but those facts does NOT make BTC a ponzi scheme merely b/c of the facts that the expansion of the user base causes increasing appreciation in how much btc users will be willing to pay for bitcoins.

[boumalo]

When will people start buying bitcoin again?

Each time someone is selling BTC someone is buying, there are a lot of buyers and a good portion of them hold for long term after they bought

There has been a lot of bad news and the mtgox fiasco but the price has been resisting quite well, some think there will still be a huge correction, I think it is possible but maybe we had the correction and we are heading to a new spike up in price this summer or in fall 2014

The USD is doomed so the BTC/USD price is meant to go up tremendously if Bitcoin doesn't die

[JorgeStolfi]

Easiest way to break linkage is to convert to USD.  Selling bitcoins is not hard.

But how do you convert 10,000 BTC to 5 million USD without being caught by the police?  Unless you sell privately to other criminals (after making sure that they are not undercover agents), which does not change anything.

I pity the FBI, they must be having a terribly hard time with all those criminals who believe that bitcoin is a safe way to move illegal money or evade taxes.   

[seleme]

Bitfinex 15m chart, lol

[JayJuanGee]

it is only a detail of the bigger problem of 100% of all the money that exists being owned by a few thousand people.

Again, this is a much more severe problem in USD than in BTC.  BTC helps to solve this problem as well, because the thousands who own most of the BTC are largely non-overlapping with the thousands who own most of the USD.  The aggregate GINI is better as a result.

OM f'in G!!!!!!  Are you suggesting some level of redistribution of wealth?  OM f'in G, this will mean the end of the world as we know it, no?

Actually, I am NOT very worried about redistribution of wealth b/c I  get the sense that the rich always figure out ways to manipulate and co-opt various innovations and institutions in order that there is NOT too much redistribution of wealth and historical inequities continue.  The same is likely to be true with bitcoin - b/c even the traditional rich, once they recognize value in btc, are going to find ways to profit off of btc disproportionately to regular joe schmoes.  At the same time, various innovations play out differently, and I suspect that there may be some ways that the dynamics in bitcoin will play out a bit differently (but NOT to a large degree), and some redistribution of wealth is going to take place, in spite of status quo rich manipulations that will occur... and likely already have been occurring, to some degree. 

Also, I suspect that the status quo rich are going to attempt to drag out status quo systems as long as they can in order to continue to be able to continue to exploit poor people around the world for as long as they can get away with it.

[wachtwoord]

it is only a detail of the bigger problem of 100% of all the money that exists being owned by a few thousand people.

Again, this is a much more severe problem in USD than in BTC.  BTC helps to solve this problem as well, because the thousands who own most of the BTC are largely non-overlapping with the thousands who own most of the USD.  The aggregate GINI is better as a result.

OM f'in G!!!!!!  Are you suggesting some level of redistribution of wealth?  OM f'in G, this will mean the end of the world as we know it, no?

Actually, I am NOT very worried about redistribution of wealth b/c I  get the sense that the rich always figure out ways to manipulate and co-opt various innovations and institutions in order that there is NOT too much redistribution of wealth and historical inequities continue.  The same is likely to be true with bitcoin - b/c even the traditional rich, once they recognize value in btc, are going to find ways to profit off of btc disproportionately to regular joe schmoes.  At the same time, various innovations play out differently, and I suspect that there may be some ways that the dynamics in bitcoin will play out a bit differently (but NOT to a large degree), and some redistribution of wealth is going to take place, in spite of status quo rich manipulations that will occur... and likely already have been occurring, to some degree. 

Also, I suspect that the status quo rich are going to attempt to drag out status quo systems as long as they can in order to continue to be able to continue to exploit poor people around the world for as long as they can get away with it.

Except for the early adopters of Bitcoin the redistribution of wealth won't be that extreme. Just look at the first ways to invest in Bitcoin that are popping up: SecondMarket (which is only for the existing elite) and investing in non-publically traded companies (also not for Joe Average).

Don't worry, the majority of the existing status-quo will make sure they're still part of the new status-quo as well even in the case of an extremely violent (quick) redistribution of wealth (although they'll lose some relative purchasing power to the new entrants)

[JayJuanGee]

There is only one riskless profitable trade at present:  Buy on bfx and sell on another exchange.  The 563 seller appears to have infinite coins.  For more than 24 hours now one person has had total control over the Btcusd rate worldwide.  And that person is evidently a self-destructive lunatic.

Yes, he must be a self-destructive lunatic, because there is no way that the price is going down more then that.
No way I tell you... No way! No..no..no..nonononononono noooooooo!

There was a bet earlier in this thread for .5BTC about btc going to below $530 within the week. 

From your comment, I can see which side of that bet you would be on.... but then my question to you, is would you bet on the level of your passion and confidence? 

Personally, I am NOT that certain about anything when it comes to BTC prices, especially in the short term. 

IN the long term I am gambling that BTC prices going to go up in value more than it goes down, and accordingly, I am hoping to some extent that I will be able to make more money by investing in BTC than I would make if I were to put that same money into various stock market index funds... generally on stock market index funds with dollar cost averaging I have been making 3 to 10% per year.. overall.. maybe an average of around 6%.. yet I know if some people are smart about their stocks, and they can do much better than 6%.

With BTC, I am happy with any profit, or even breaking even, yet I would be more happy if I am able to achieve a greater return than what I would have gotten through my traditional index funds.

[aminorex]

it is only a detail of the bigger problem of 100% of all the money that exists being owned by a few thousand people.

Again, this is a much more severe problem in USD than in BTC.  BTC helps to solve this problem as well, because the thousands who own most of the BTC are largely non-overlapping with the thousands who own most of the USD.  The aggregate GINI is better as a result.

Seeing this quoted, I am reminded that I made this same point to Jorge previously.  Either he disbelieves it, or he repeats his complaint knowing that it is erroneous, because he is engaged in a smear campaign.  I will generously assume that he disbelieves it.  Since the point is easy to verify, I am then forced to infer that he is not deeply attached to the facts.  Either his motive or his method are corrupt, a dilemma.

...Also, I suspect that the status quo rich are going to attempt to drag out status quo systems as long as they can in order to continue to be able to continue to exploit poor people around the world for as long as they can get away with it.

This is not entirely a bad thing.  Capital formation is essential to the construction of productive enterprises.  

EDIT: deleted screed against state chartered corporations as a needless appendix.

[Bagatell]

Bitfinex 15m chart, lol

Bitcoins dead! Sell, sell, sell!

[aminorex]

certainly the dumper has proven that there is no lack of buyers at this price.  whether they can continue to do so at a similar pace until 100k goxcoin are sold, i dare not venture.

[roslinpl]

Bitfinex 15m chart, lol

Bitcoins dead! Sell, sell, sell!

Thanks for advice but bitcoin seems very alive

Hodl, hodl...

[Bagatell]

Bitfinex 15m chart, lol

Bitcoins dead! Sell, sell, sell!

Thanks for advice but bitcoin seems very alive

Hodl, hodl...

That is the correct response and a shining example to the 400+ new members who have joined the forum today.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=mlist;sort=registered;desc;start=420

[KeyserSoze]

...I am then forced to infer that he is not deeply attached to the facts.  Either his motive or his method are corrupt, a dilemma...

What I find particularly strange is his lack of seeing the forest for the trees. A major thrust in his life (until he began spending each waking moment here determining how much the Chinese were trading) seemed to be fighting voter fraud. Bitcoin or similar tech could eventually be an answer to that. He's a fucking computer scientist, and instead of actually helping to solve the voting issue HIMSELF using crypto, he spends day after day calculating fake Chinese exchange data. He could be his own hero instead.

He must have been personally affected by that exchange closure he keeps ranting about. It colours his view on everything. But to cut him some slack, it is easier when one is older to just sort of complain about stuff and not really do much actual work to change things. One gets tired and cranky as the years roll by.

[KeyserSoze]

Mark Karpeles coming soon to a Canada near you?
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/214v2y/mtgox_is_trading_in_530000_bitcoins_from_march_7/

[PoolMinor]

Is this not a bad thing,usually known as the arm of death?

[Adrian-x]

I have watched that the HODL word is so much used in this forum. I have searched in almost the whole internet and didn't found anything about its meaning. So I registered exclusively to ask this:

What the f+ck does HODL mean?

AFAIK, HODL is a typo that someone made in this forum (maybe on this thread, was it?) which later became a backronym for "Hold On for Dear Life".

It is the advice given by those who want to dump to those who are supposed to sacrifice their money for the noble cause of pushing the price up.  

I enjoy your skepticism, but I think your a little sinister, hold is the advice given to noobs who buy high and then want to sell low.

Just buy one is the pump. In 2011 @$2 I gave the same advice I give today just buy 1, and if you can't afford to lose the cash just invest what you can live without and hold. I've given away way more in value ( as paper wallets and donations) than I've invested with the requests to hold and if you need assistance sending it ask for my help. I'll even send you one Bitcoin if you promise to look after it and send 0.5 back when it's worth $10,000. (Personally I think it has less chance of being stolen if you invest your own money)

The thing with scams and stealing is real but it adds value, to the system. The idea of justice you keep is an authority meme built on the meme that all land belongs to someone and you have to rent or buy it. The only rules in reality are based on natural selection viewed through the lens of universally preferred behavior, dynamic not entropic.

[fonzie]

Only 487364BTC left for sale @563/Bitfinex.

[cbutters]

bitfinex invisible wall is DOWN! BUY BUY