Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hamich124D]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter

... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet

... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID

... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery

During this whole COVID period this has what has pissed me off the most, shitty data. I don't care which argument is correct, I just want detailed accurate data (then we'll know for sure who is correct). Very few seem to be complaining about this. How do we as a society perform accurate decision making and perform at peak efficiency without detailed accurate data. It's nuts.

Honestly most of society's problems come down to this, we don't solve problems because we lack the data to do so or focus on the wrong data. I think this is intentional, look at GDP, it's held up as the most important economic data point around, but it measures nothing relevant to the everyday person. CPI is of course bullshit too. If we had accurate, broad, detailed data about say quality of life for the 99%, maybe, just maybe, governments would focus on improving things for the people, rather than pumping the economy with fiat to juice GDP.

The world is nuts, and what is even more nuts is the arguing between the 99% on the symptoms of the problem rather than the problem. But I guess that is because Edward Bernays et al have won that war.

[JayJuanGee]

it seems that price can be anything (within a pretty large band of $20K-200K), imho.

If that's the best you got, we may as well throw up our hands with a sense of futility.

Your nonsense statement does not deviate too much from some of your historical record.

Consistency.

So there is that.




 

[Biodom]

@jjg..at least $20-200k band is realistic in comparison with all your non-predictions.

But.. here are some specifics that I already mentioned before, so don't really need to repeat, but you are 'asking' for it.

1. S2f is dead like a door knob.
2. Cycles are mostly dead, but not completely yet.
3. 200Wk average low is real, unless it is violated, hence the lowest value of $20K (for now).
4. At 200K miners would be excessively profitable, which historically indicated the top, hence the max value until the new gen of miners is out.
5. We can stay at ~42-45K for a year instead of popping up and down.
6. We are in the new cycle, which is likely to be very long and quite possibly a "super cycle" (driven mostly by adoption, not halvings): 2021-2025(6).
7. The prior cycle (which you think is still ongoing) actually terminated in April of 2021 (Nov was just a 'secondary' peak caused by reaction to abrupt "chinese' plunge).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

@jjg..at least $20-200k band is realistic in comparison with all your non-predictions.

But.. here are some specifics that I already mentioned before, so don't really need to repeat, but you are 'asking' for it.

1. S2f is dead like a door knob. - maybe maybe not

2. Cycles are mostly dead, but not completely yet. - yeah much less than ever

3. 200Wk average low is real, unless it is violated, hence the lowest value of $20K (for now). as s2f was twisted out of shape this will be twisted.


4. At 200K miners would be excessively profitable, which historically indicated the top, hence the max value until the new gen of miners is out. - i dream of this if it is to be it will be oct- dec 2022


5. We can stay at ~42-45K for a year instead of popping up and down. - 35-70 slot for 2022 seems to be most likely

6. We are in the new cycle, which is likely to be very long and quite possibly a "super cycle" (driven mostly by adoption, not halvings): 2021-2025(6). — this is all about if and when the gear is built and sold to mine. there could be on last buildup of mining gear for gear builders


7. The prior cycle (which you think is still ongoing) actually terminated in April of 2021 (Nov was just a 'secondary' peak caused by reaction to abrupt "chinese' plunge). - nope 👎 the most wrong of all. more likely this cycle is simply very distorted

to me the question is this for 2022  do we slide along in a 35-70 range the entire year. or do we slide along in that range until late fall early winter 2022 and get the blow off top.

If gear does not expand and we slide in the 35-70 slot till Oct 1 will will get a blow off top.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter

... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet

... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID

... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery

...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.

I suggest you can fuck right off and I'll post wherever I like ... Mr.-Trust-Me-I'm-A-Scientist

... on to your fourth Pfizer shot yet? Got the vax passport chip implant?

... don't turn around now but I think someone sneezed behind you without a mask on!!





got the merch coach?

[philipma1957]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter

... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet

... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID

... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery

...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.

I suggest you can fuck right off and I'll post wherever I like ... Mr.-Trust-Me-I'm-A-Scientist

... on to your fourth Pfizer shot yet? Got the vax passport chip implant?

... don't turn around now but I think someone sneezed behind you without a mask on!!

Holy covid batman.

guess what you be dying right now as I type. And all anti vaxer’s along with all pro vaxer’s are dying.

You can be anti vax and post here as much as you want or don’t watch.

I actually don’t care. But I like the privacy masking offers me

what amazes me is that anitvaxers should love masking and they simply fail to see that masking offers them the luxury of privacy.

but wtf do I know. I mask every time I am out of the house. especially when I am driving.

wearing a mask and a hat and sunglasses when I drive allows me the abliity to fight and and all traffic camera tickets I may get.

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg..at least $20-200k band is realistic in comparison with all your non-predictions.

I will take that as a somewhat compliment, even if you did not mean it as such.

But.. here are some specifics that I already mentioned before, so don't really need to repeat, but you are 'asking' for it.

I was not really asking for it, but sure.. o.k... go ahead if you must (not that I can really stop you.)

1. S2f is dead like a door knob.

Oh gawd.    

Sounds more like a wish than an actual statement that has facts/logic behind it.

2. Cycles are mostly dead, but not completely yet.

Mostly dead?

I presume that you are referring to the four-year fractal.

3. 200Wk average low is real, unless it is violated, hence the lowest value of $20K (for now).

I agree that the 200-week moving average is a good bottom indicator, but it should not be met unless we were in a bear market or maybe a short-term liquidity event like March 2020.. sure the 200-week moving average is approaching $19k, and yeah within a month or so, it will likely be around $20k-ish.. 

Ok.  Admittedly, we had a run up from $10k to $65k between September 2020 and April 2021, and then we had a 56% correction down to $28,600 in May/June/July.. and subsequent to that another run up to $69k that ended up peaking on November 9.. so slightly higher than the earlier $65k.. and then a so far 39% correction down to $41,967 on December 3, so yeah, we have not yet gotten out of that 39% correction - even though we are currently about 12% above that December 3 correction low point.

I think that it is too soon to be presuming that we are going into a bear market, but hey, you do you.  You had already suggested that we would be going sub $20k during our earlier May/June/July correction, so maybe this time you are going to be correct?  I doubt it, but hey you can hope, right you beartwat low-coiner whiner. #nohomo

4. At 200K miners would be excessively profitable, which historically indicated the top, hence the max value until the new gen of miners is out.

That's a fair point, but I don't think that miner profitability, even excessiveness levels of profits leads bitcoin price... but surely the miners are happy with Bitcoin's price, even currently, and surely we continue to have a lot of new entrants into BTC mining which have decent chances of continuing to push up hash rate and thus difficulty levels... two weeks at a time of course (what geniusness, no?)

5. We can stay at ~42-45K for a year instead of popping up and down.

We could, but seems like a very long shot.  I would not be betting on such nonsense, especially since bitcoin no doesn't work like that.. At least the last time I checked.

6. We are in the new cycle, which is likely to be very long and quite possibly a "super cycle" (driven mostly by adoption, not halvings): 2021-2025(6).

Yes good luck with spinning your own wishful thinking SOMA^{(tm-thanks d_eddie)} BTC price dynamic models.

You might get lucky with your spinnening attempts, but probably not.

7. The prior cycle (which you think is still ongoing) actually terminated in April of 2021 (Nov was just a 'secondary' peak caused by reaction to abrupt "chinese' plunge).

Fair enough if you believe that the cycle ended in November, but that extra little nonsense about ending in April is really truly out of your ass, including your chinese plunge explanatory assertion.  I am not going to buy that for even 30 seconds.

But yeah.. have fun with your short, or your waiting for lower prices, or your historical short-sighted practice of failing and refusing to prepare for UP.  Let's see how the next 1-9 months play out.. ... I think that we are going to see other than sideways or downity in the next 1-9 months, and I am not even sure if you disagree - even though you are saying otherwise at the moment.. but like usual, you are likely going to have to be changing your tune in the wee near future.. just like you had to do sometime soon after $10k in September 2020 and just like you had to do sometime soon after $30k in August 2021... but one thing is fairly certain that if you keep spouting out your ongoing nonsense DOWNity scenarios, sooner or later you are going to be correct, and sooner or later, you are going to be able to tell all of us that "I told you so."

 

For sure, we should know not to be taking uie poo-ie too seriously with your ongoing nabobs of nagging negativism and glass-half-full nonsense... and so hopefully not to many peeps get reckt by actually believing that you are actually saying something meaningful and important that they should follow.

[Biodom]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter

... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet

... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID

... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery

...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.

<snipped a bunch of yellin'>

Interesting.
Having said that, I was merely pointing out that almost nobody wants to read about the virus here now that bob made a thread about it.

[Biodom]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.

You can call it NOT trading if you like...

It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

Something is too uninformed about that $35k to $70k range, even though I have acknowledged a current range of $42k-$62k.. so it's in a similar ballpark.

So perhaps if we break below $42k, then the range below that would be $30k to $42k.. and then of course, the $20k to $30k would come thereafter.

We are still more than 12% from breaking below the $42k bottom of the range.. so I am not wanting to get ahead of my lil selfie.. especially if I am still presuming that we are in a bull market.. and so I am not going to presume anything about being able to break below $42k, even though I am not so bold as to proclaim that the $42k bottom is in (from December 3), we are just too damned close to within striking distance in order to proclaim the bottom to be in.. so if we get towards the top of the range $62k..and maybe even prior to $62k, I might be willing to proclaim that the $42k bottom is "in".  We would have to get there first, so one step at a time for this non-predicting bot.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

For sure I have my doubts about being able to get 70% or 80% or more corrections without a BIGGER blow off top, and surely our 56% correction from May/June/July was already a pretty BIG correction within the context in which it came.

Sure, never say never, but if you are expecting a 70%, 80% or greater than 80% correction from $69k (which could end up as low as $13.8k), then you are surely smoking some pretty strong shit in the negativism arena.. which seems that you hardly even understand bitcoin.. but hey, what else is new?

It's almost as if I am repeating myself, but if we are going to get a 70% plus correction, we are probably going to need to at least go supra $150k, and even that seems a bit implausible (down to $45k), but if we were supra $250k then a 70% or more correction (which would be correcting down to $70k-ish or maybe even back in the $50ks (which would be 80%-ish) and $60ks (which would be 75%-ish)) starts to come off as more within the realm of something that seems plausible.  Again, anything can happen, and so I am just saying that I don't buy 70% plus corrections absent at least getting above $150k and more likely getting above $250k...

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

He's likely not the ONLY one with that idea of this particular cycle extending as late as 3rd quarter 2022.. but more plausibly it would end either 1st or 2nd quarter 2022.... and yeah, who knows.. I don't find an extended cycle (at least this time around) to be implausible at all, especially given where we are already at.. including the early 2021 run up and the two corrections down 56% and 39% (so far) and the so far quasi-double top that was ONLY toppening on November 9th.

[Hueristic]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

[Biodom]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

the difference is that i don't need to sell (he was over-invested) and my cost has been below ZERO for a while now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

the difference is that i don't need to sell (he was over-invested) and my cost has been below ZERO for a while now.

No prob just pointing that out as food for thought.

I never trust TA gurus, they only have to screw you once to make you a no-coiner.

[Biodom]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

the difference is that i don't need to sell (he was over-invested) and my cost has been below ZERO for a while now.

No prob just pointing that out as food for thought.

I never trust TA gurus, they only have to screw you once to make you a no-coiner.

yep, EVERYBODY (ta, fundamental, money flow, on-chain) were wrong in 2021.

[Hueristic]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

the difference is that i don't need to sell (he was over-invested) and my cost has been below ZERO for a while now.

No prob just pointing that out as food for thought.

I never trust TA gurus, they only have to screw you once to make you a no-coiner.

yep, EVERYBODY (ta, fundamental, money flow, on-chain) were wrong in 2021.

I've seen the best predictions from this thread and they tend to be soma from the gut. The last thing I trust s some rando that popped up on a social engineering site.

Our subconscious can quantify many variables that TA doesn't even know exists.

TA is nothing other than trying to find history repeating itself and this is a fluid market with new entries  that make it increasingly less likely for patterns to repeat on a schedule.