Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

[d_eddie]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

I think this has already been posted here (or where would I get it from?), but Arthur Hayes depicts the same scenario. A good read as usual.

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/maelstrom-ee6021e9d0c2

EDIT: I prefer the bullish mania, too.

[Copetech]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

To add another dimension to your well fleshed out thoughts, Federal Debt!
Currently the US holds somewhere in the neighborhood of $30T of public debt. Interest to service that debt is already growing and was approximately $562B in 2021. Increasing the interest rates will draw down and likely even reverse GDP growth making the interest on Treasury Bonds skyrocket and therefore grow the interest on the debt exponentially. Therefore the only way I can see moving forward under the burden of this debt is to hyper inflate the US dollar to the point where the debt is a negligible Value, while keeping everyone convinced that everything is "just fine" so as to avoid a revolt from the lenders. (Bond Holders) Thus enters the concept of a North American CBDC to replace the US $ that is worth less than the paper it's printed on.
Interesting Times Ahead...

[cAPSLOCK]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

I think this has already been posted here (or where would I get it from?), but Arthur Hayes depicts the same scenario. A good read as usual.

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/maelstrom-ee6021e9d0c2

EDIT: I prefer the bullish mania, too.

Hayes is ov er my head for most of that, but I agree it kind of sounds like hes on the same page pretty much.  Ugh.

[cAPSLOCK]

To add another dimension to your well fleshed out thoughts, Federal Debt!
Currently the US holds somewhere in the neighborhood of $30T of public debt. Interest to service that debt is already growing and was approximately $562B in 2021. Increasing the interest rates will draw down and likely even reverse GDP growth making the interest on Treasury Bonds skyrocket and therefore grow the interest on the debt exponentially. Therefore the only way I can see moving forward under the burden of this debt is to hyper inflate the US dollar to the point where the debt is a negligible Value, while keeping everyone convinced that everything is "just fine" so as to avoid a revolt from the lenders. (Bond Holders) Thus enters the concept of a North American CBDC to replace the US $ that is worth less than the paper it's printed on.
Interesting Times Ahead...

Now, THIS scenario has Bitcoin becoming ridiculously valuable in nominal dollar terms.

Yeah.  I think we are already IN the interesting times, and yet there is certainly more ahead as well.

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

New colleague:


https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1480227262813376519

[aesma]

Year on inflation in December 2021 6.4% in The Netherlands.

Note that house prices rose beyond 10% last year and one of the leading banks in The Netherlands expects another 12.5% increase this year.

With these figures anyone who complains that "but how can BTC be fair when those who got in early will have massive gains." is a fucking fool OR is purposefully trying to distract from the biggest problems.

I want to buy a house and not only did the price rise like crazy the last couple of years, but what I'm looking for isn't even on the market anymore : a basic/average house with a large plot of land. Now to get the large plot of land at a similar or worse location, I need to literally double my budget and fork for a nicer/bigger house that I don't need (and would also cost a lot in taxes, maintenance etc.). From ~350000€ to 700000€ in one year. For 350K I get a literal ruin.

[aesma]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

To add another dimension to your well fleshed out thoughts, Federal Debt!
Currently the US holds somewhere in the neighborhood of $30T of public debt. Interest to service that debt is already growing and was approximately $562B in 2021. Increasing the interest rates will draw down and likely even reverse GDP growth making the interest on Treasury Bonds skyrocket and therefore grow the interest on the debt exponentially. Therefore the only way I can see moving forward under the burden of this debt is to hyper inflate the US dollar to the point where the debt is a negligible Value, while keeping everyone convinced that everything is "just fine" so as to avoid a revolt from the lenders. (Bond Holders) Thus enters the concept of a North American CBDC to replace the US $ that is worth less than the paper it's printed on.
Interesting Times Ahead...

The plan has always been to inflate the debt away. But to do that in the "normal" way, you need to check your deficit, especially when there is growth, and only grow the debt in bad times. The US has stopped doing that, it was particularly glaring under Trump, crazy deficit despite an overheating economy (that was before COVID). I don't get why people "in the know", regardless of cryptos, are not feeling very uncomfortable with what's going on. It's clearly the case of the Fed, that why it's becoming hawkish, but if only the Fed is concerned, it won't be enough.

[Paashaas]

[sirazimuth]

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds5FpBNNBtM

Well fuck, that shit is gonna screw my algorithm!  

I'll get u for that!

Whoa, that's awesome! I never knew the vid of my class musical I starred in would be posted on YT!





You can clearly see from my amazing choreographed moves, I was Michael Jackson's main influence...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@BTC_Archive
#Bitcoin  RSI has been this low just 2 other times in the last 2 years.  Looks like a bottom is near and bounce due.  Let's see 🤓

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1480186912430305290?s=21


@saylor
Stay hungry. BTC
https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1480190307224465408?s=21


@danheld
When in doubt, zoom out.
BTC

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1480218737081040897?s=21


@BitcoinRotey
Basic Mathematics

                      Your money
  $ USD =       ——————
                            ♾

                      Your money
#BTC  =         ——————
                      21,000,000

Share this with the masses
https://twitter.com/bitcoinrhotey/status/1479849762455269380?s=21

[d_eddie]

More fine #hopium

https://twitter.com/cryptomanran/status/1480063160539402243

The majority of the leverage in the market now is large shorts. We know this because price collapsed and the leverage didn’t. If we get a rally it could trigger the mother of all short squeezes. I’m talking $10k candles.

[Hueristic]

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

Yeah well, this is why bitcoins exists...so Bullish as usual.
your getting trapped in short term thinking.

[cygan]

A HODLer’s journey

https://twitter.com/LinaSeiche/status/1480246097641709570

[d_eddie]

The plan has always been to inflate the debt away. But to do that in the "normal" way, you need to check your deficit, especially when there is growth, and only grow the debt in bad times. The US has stopped doing that, it was particularly glaring under Trump, crazy deficit despite an overheating economy (that was before COVID). I don't get why people "in the know", regardless of cryptos, are not feeling very uncomfortable with what's going on. It's clearly the case of the Fed, that why it's becoming hawkish, but if only the Fed is concerned, it won't be enough.

Have my last!

[JayJuanGee]

Since the poll is still broken, I suggest a mini poll: What will be the top price in the next week. I say 50 750$. Reasons: quite often after a 30%+ dip from the ATH follows a 25% increase from the bottom. I believe 40 600$ was the bottom, hence the number. If this is not the bottom, better prepare your wallets for the brief opportunity to buy below 40K.

high price in the next week? ill go with whatever proudhon says minus one dollar. the minus one dollar thing is because hes so well known to be overly optimistic all the time so..

lowest buy ive hit is 41.4k usd so far.

Bitstamp (our default reference in this thread shows $40,517 as it's bottom about 25 hours ago as I type this post.   

I would like see a bounce too... .. and within a week (if we were to use the weekly candle) which closes today at 00:00 UTC (about 6 hours from the time of this post), a lot of price movement could happen.. a bounce up to $49,500-ish or higher does not seem unreasonable but I am not sure of the odds....maybe 41.41%.. give or take?

If we get above $54k or so then we might be able to proclaim that "the bottom is in"   which would be a good feeling thing to proclaim.... could take a bit longer for supra $54k to resolve, maybe a month or more?  seeing between a $10k to $20k daily candle would be nice, but that seems like a wish rather than anything with high odds of happening.. even though if a lot of shorts are in place, then those shorts would serve as fuel for that kind of short reckening.

I think this has already been posted here (or where would I get it from?), but Arthur Hayes depicts the same scenario. A good read as usual.

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/maelstrom-ee6021e9d0c2

EDIT: I prefer the bullish mania, too.

I am surprised about how much shitcoin talk that Arthur has allowed to get into his discussion points... sure the house of cards smoke and mirror scamming platform shitcoin called ETH may well have good chances to outperform the dollar, but for me, I don't consider them to be a talking point in regards to bitcoin versus macro.. unless putting ETH in its proper place as the scam platform that it is, even if it has been performing well and likely to continue to have decent performance at least relative to the dollar.. and maybe even relative to bitcoin in the short term as it continues to be propped up by various kinds of money printing-oriented entities outside of the dollar.