Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cbutters]

I don't get why unsubstantiated news is affecting us so much... this news is UNCONFIRMED.... other than by the herd of sellers I guess.
Either way, its not the end of bitcoin, we were doing just fine without china at 250+ and its been a year since then... bitcoin is worth way more.

Also... won't everybody have to BUY on huobi to get out of there if they can't get fiat out or in?

[PoolMinor]

Please, stop quoting the trolls.

[KeyserSoze]

on top of price dropping my "Hedge" against falling bitcoin prices ( equity in a bitcoin casino ) is not performing as expected
depressing.

Ouch, sorry. It is kinda interesting times though; a non-whale dude can go invest in a casino. Kinda neat.

[tarmi]

I don't get why unsubstantiated news is affecting us so much... this news is UNCONFIRMED.... other than by the herd of sellers I guess.
Either way, its not the end of bitcoin, we were doing just fine without china at 250+ and its been a year since then... bitcoin is worth way more.

you are really naive to think that confirmed news is affecting the price.

[gizmoh]

Ask side on Stamp is pretty thin right now, compared to the last days.
1500BTC to 570$

Yet some entity is dumping like mad instead of placing walls..Either they want to cause longs to get margin called sub 500, or Mark is panicking!

[EvilPanda]

I don't get why unsubstantiated news is affecting us so much... this news is UNCONFIRMED.... other than by the herd of sellers I guess.
Either way, its not the end of bitcoin, we were doing just fine without china at 250+ and its been a year since then... bitcoin is worth way more.

Also... won't everybody have to BUY on huobi to get out of there if they can't get fiat out or in?

The answer is simple: because most people are dumb, easily manipulated, easily scared, unsure of what they want to achieve and so on.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Kachiiing... 

Damn, that bet wasn't good for my health...

Damn your FUD-o-matic. 

Thanks old sport  , I'll be sure to pour it back into the bitcoin ecosystem (buy stuff from merchants).

[adamstgBit]

Anyone still holding please drop your drawers and bend over.

What's that supposed to mean??

Ostensibly it means "you're about to get fucked."

Closer to the truth, however:
"I recently sold some coins. There's a bit of fear in the air and I'd like to add to it so the price will drop some more and I can buy my coins back more cheaply."

But please do not share this info with anyone or my tactic will not work as well.

you may be doing it wrong.

idk

just maybe.

[mah87]

Anyone still holding please drop your drawers and bend over.

 

on top of price dropping my "Hedge" against falling bitcoin prices ( equity in a bitcoin casino ) is not performing as expected
depressing.

I'm amused cause i bet you'll still say the same thing about bitcoin when it touch 200£ then 100£ ? same talk since 800$ and still bullish... MUCH DENIAL !

[JayJuanGee]

The chart I posted consisted of 2 (or maybe 2.5) descending triangles. The question exactly how "arbitrary" they are is valid in principle, but if you look at it you will note the lines aren't drawn completely out of the blue: the major descending line has 6, maybe 7 points of contact with daily price candles, to a pretty remarkable degree of accuracy. You can certainly question the validity and staying power of that downtrend (since the December ATH), but trading on it sure turned out to be profitable in the past weeks. At some point that trendline *will* be broken, I'm sure, but so far it hasn't happened (with any kind of volume as well).

The lower lines that form the smaller  triangle run through the pretty well established support at ~520, slightly ascending perhaps. I said "2.5 triangles" because to me it looks like there are 2 levels of support running close to each other, but they aren't much apart, so many in this forum put the two lines together as one lower trendline. The trend lines of the smaller triangle are about to touch, and we either have to go up or down (breaking out towards the upside, or the downside), that's the trivially true part.

Now, today, we broke through the 520 support trend line (that marked the smaller triangle), although we're currently resting above it, which is not a bad sign. My chart was intended to raise the question: will we "break" the smaller triangle to the downside (i.e. go below 520, then 500), or rather: did we just break out to the downside, and will we perhaps, in the following weeks look for resistance/support in the larger triangle (that lasts into May 2014).

Here's the chart again:

Thanks for that explanation, and in essence you are suggesting that there will be a sort of force that causes BTC to gravitate towards these kinds of trendlines, despite a potential exponential growth curve... In other words, even if there were an exponential explosion of BTC prices, there would be a force pulling the price back down to the trendlines... unless the trendline were to shift upward or downward.. depending on if there is enough evidence to support drawing the line in a different way based on the number of connection points. 

I don't really have any problems with these kinds of analyses... b/c they seem to make sense.... even though you may NOT bet the farm on it.. but they could guide you absent other news.

[PoolMinor]

[MAbtc]

This plays out nicely. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg5699835#msg5699835

Too bad I am too busy to actively trade these last couple days. Still holding a short from 580s, but did not add to it or close anything during this volatility.  

Momentum looks weak for much more to this bounce, and we already saw a 50% retracement from the last plateau. I see support at 465 - 480, hard to breach that level without some nice bounce I think.

Edit: Re-thinking this. Closing short at 520 for now. Will see how this plays out.

[KeyserSoze]

Anyone still holding please drop your drawers and bend over.

What's that supposed to mean??

Ostensibly it means "you're about to get fucked."

Closer to the truth, however:
"I recently sold some coins. There's a bit of fear in the air and I'd like to add to it so the price will drop some more and I can buy my coins back more cheaply."

But please do not share this info with anyone or my tactic will not work as well.

you may be doing it wrong.
idk
just maybe.

I can't believe Podyx made this info public after I specifically asked him not to. Dirty rat. To the moon!

[KeyserSoze]

Big news brewing?
https://stripe.com/bitcoin
http://recode.net/2014/01/16/twitter-gets-serious-about-commerce-nears-deal-with-payments-startup-stripe/

Stripe testing Bitcoin. Twitter nearing deal with Stripe. Mayhaps Twitter begins Bitcoin tipping?

[Tyson95]

Big news brewing?
https://stripe.com/bitcoin
http://recode.net/2014/01/16/twitter-gets-serious-about-commerce-nears-deal-with-payments-startup-stripe/

Stripe testing Bitcoin. Twitter nearing deal with Stripe. Mayhaps Twitter begins Bitcoin tipping?

Looks like bad news I'm gonna sell

[JayJuanGee]

What I'm saying is that these bitcoinwisdom line drawing attempts aren't trustworthy speculations. It wouldn't be worth of mentioning when the majority of the forum wouldn't consider them as trustworthy. When MtGox crashed, then the majority thought that we are back on an uptrend just because couple of reputable baffoons drawed couple of lines, that "proved" this. If the market were smarter, then everyone would earn more money. This unstable market that is lead by chaotic desperation and illusions, isn't very attractive any more, and I really want it to be attractive! So smarten up ffs and stop drawing lines and start concentrating at the general nature of the market.

You are appearing to be so bitter to merely criticize and attack and denigrate without offering any meaningful alternatives.    You seem to be suggesting to predict BTC prices by just doing whatever feels good or feels right at the time... little objective guidance with those kinds of abstract considerations. 

YES, maybe line drawing is NOT the be all end all.... and few are saying that it is...

Surely there are other pieces of evidence that can be accounted to consider the price direction of BTC besides line drawing, and I think everyone agrees to that.. Also, everyone seems to agree that the past does NOT predict the future and that various variables can alter the line drawing predictions... so in this regard, you seem to be attempting to attribute much more predictive value to the line drawings than the line drawers themselves are attributing to such lines.

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone still holding please drop your drawers and bend over.

What's that supposed to mean??

better sell now. 

I'm disinclined to sell under $700... .. though I may reconsider with good evidence

[podyx]

Big news brewing?
https://stripe.com/bitcoin
http://recode.net/2014/01/16/twitter-gets-serious-about-commerce-nears-deal-with-payments-startup-stripe/

Stripe testing Bitcoin. Twitter nearing deal with Stripe. Mayhaps Twitter begins Bitcoin tipping?

Looks like bad news I'm gonna sell

[ChrisML]

Whats the big deal.

We have not hit $420 yet. That was scary.

That was a moment of changing your underwear... cause I honestly shat myself back than.

All above that, fine by me.