Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Zule]

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty.
1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

Back in aren't you?

[JorgeStolfi]

What would be a good way to determine the number of market participants in bitcoin? Do the biggest exchanges for instance disclose the number of unique accounts?

Huobi's CEO said (a month ago?) that they had about 10,000 active clients.  Not clear what "active" meant.

User @rpietila posted recently an analysis of MtGOX's database leak; IIRC, they had less than 70,000 clients with 0.001 BTC or more in their account.

[aminorex]

the 23.6% retrace on huobi is at 3000 rmb

[chessnut]

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time.  

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who enter room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

you´re right

no not all trading, on the stock market out capital is used to generate dividends. all the people who buy such stock are net winners.

All the people who buy/sell bitcoin offer liquidity, boosting the value. again bitcoinsers will be net winners, no need to sell.

[fonzie]

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty.
1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

Back in aren't you?

Of course- Max leveraged long @ 472,5$

[chessnut]

I guess that massive spike was a bunch of the lesser whales getting out of bed in China.

[adamstgBit]

Stamp/Finex ask side is almost complete empty.
1688BTC to 550$
I expect a nice green candle!

Back in aren't you?

Of course- Max leveraged long @ 472,5$

[derpinheimer]

puh for a second I thought my short at 474 would get squeezed

I'll see where this goes now from the sidelines

You shorted at $474? Are you fckin nuts?

Same was said to those who shorted at 1000, 800 and 600. 10K by spring yadda yadda. No one should be listening to bulltards right now.

The point is that you don't sell DURING the crash, when a bounce could happen at any time. You sell BEFORE the crash right after a bulltrap when there is low volume and everything is fizzling out and all the indicators are going down.

Yeah. I dont see anything wrong with shorting if you think its going down, but shorting after/"during" the drop is just unnecessary risk.

[Davyd05]

A good bull-trap actually functions like a Ponzi, the first ones that get in will be rewarded when they leave at the right time.  

Edit: 1h chart actually looks like a waterfall

this is how all trading works it's identical to a game where there are two rooms, A and B, and players move from one, to the hallway in between, to the other. each player's reward is proportional to the number of people who enter room A after him, minus the number of people who leave room A before him, as well as the number of people who enter room B after him, minus the number of people who leave room B before him.

imagine actually playing that game. seems silly, doesn't it? that's what we're doing here, all of us!

--arepo

Except for I entered a room.. and I am not leaving it

[aminorex]

fib retrace of the china drop, first at 495, then at 514.

[fonzie]

How does this ban affect tradin in China. It looks like they panic sell, then everyone goes to sleep at the same time, get´s up and panic sells again.

[TERA]

Here's the logarithmic chart I keep posting these past months based on what we THINK are our logarithmic trendlines. They might not actually be the real trendlines and the slopes might actually be less, especially if this turns out to be a 2011-like supercycle. Regardless, there are going to be a lot of bulls and traders playing these trendlines. There are two very strong (one linear and one logarithmic) support levels below us. It is almost as if this crash was painted with a bullseye. So at the very least I expect a strong bounce from 400 or greater. Right now we're only at $480 and already there is a semidecent volume on Stamp building. See why I'm not shorting right now?

A rally from $420 to $550 is possible.

After this, a sustained recovery from here is the only chance left to resume the 9-month-per-rally trend before the 1W emas turns down and it turns into the 2 year cycle rather than a 9 month cycle and we see a very long crash/recovery period.

[Davyd05]

I guess that massive spike was a bunch of the lesser whales getting out of bed in China.

Since when did you have to be Chinese to trade in China or @Huobi...just as likely it was Rpiella and Tera lol

It's not like CaVirtEx is with CAD citizen only traders to the best of my knowledge.

[chessnut]

I guess that massive spike was a bunch of the lesser whales getting out of bed in China.

Since when did you have to be Chinese to trade in China or @Huobi...just as likely it was Rpiella and Tera lol

It's not like CaVirtEx is with CAD citizen only traders to the best of my knowledge.

well I didnt know that whales outside of china would like to deal with yuan. but it's the chinese that have guns pointed at them. not risto. and its time to get up and go to work now.

[Davyd05]

I guess that massive spike was a bunch of the lesser whales getting out of bed in China.

Since when did you have to be Chinese to trade in China or @Huobi...just as likely it was Rpiella and Tera lol

It's not like CaVirtEx is with CAD citizen only traders to the best of my knowledge.

well I didnt know that whales outside of china would like to deal with yuan. but it's the chinese that have guns pointed at them. not risto. and its time to get up and go to work now.

So correlate getting up for work and.. being a whale.. lol

[JayJuanGee]

I sound like this because I have been telling all of this since January, but nobody listened and they called me names
I want to play bitcoin, but the other boys are breaking the game because they don't know how to play
Please, tell them that causing slow downtrends isn't how it's done :''(

WTF?  Are you even invested in BTC?  If so, what's your strategy, just play it by ear and get pissed off at charts?    I keep saying who cares about charts, unless you rely on something that you do NOT understand.  If someone else is relying on something that is less accurate than your method, then more power to you, no?

Of course I'm not invested in BTC. I held BTC more then 24h last time during December 2013. To me, it's madness or stupidity, to be holding coins with this market. My point is that these graphs that are presented are fugazi. They are presented by people who are either incompetent or their goal is to spread false information. This in turn is creating an ugly market and I really wanted for BTC to be pretty.

You lose quite a bit of credibility by NOT being invested in BTC and then to be making suggestions concerning which investment tools a guy should use or NOT use.  I have found that generally the posters providing graphs are putting in a certain level of skin to make their points and projections about the direction of BTC.  Yes, on an anonymous forum, we need to take all information with a grain of salt, and I will take your information with even more grains of salt, once I get to know more about your philosophy regarding BTC - and it does NOT match with mine.  I have been investing and I have quite a bit in the BTC game.  That fact does NOT necessarily make me biased, but gives me various incentives to learn and to take from various sources in order to attempt to maximize my investment possibilities....

And, BTC is NOT my only investment or area of knowledge, so I get what I can out of the various charts, and I find them interesting that posters can attempt to explain various past performance or even to attempt to make predictions based in part on information in the charts....   

NO matter what some people are going to have bad motives... and yours seem questionable in my mind at this point - especially given your seeming proclivity to attack people and to denigrate and to assume bad motives where the bad motives have NOT been proven.

[MoreFun]

I'm really angry that wall street is probably buying cheap coins right now (not much, but any is enough)... they should pay much higher price.

Not likely, haven't spoted any large buys. If they did, they were $540 and $500 walls, otherwise they didn't get much coins.

[JayJuanGee]

oh cool we bounced of the 1 day 300 ema whatdya know.. I need to get fiat to exchange.. people are getting fleeced out of their coins...well in my opinion they are.. for the first time in a long time buying can lower my avg buy in price I think I shall ... mind you I know that I won't be able to cause I got no fiat in the exchange and the chart shows these lows usually = big investors snapping up a huge amount when the volume allows it.

The volume does seem to be up, and sometimes one wonders if the volume is attributed to bots buying and selling with one another.... eh heh he.   Here, it seems that some real people have gotten into the volatility game.

[TERA]

I'm really angry that wall street is probably buying cheap coins right now (not much, but any is enough)... they should pay much higher price.

Not likely, haven't spoted any large buys. If they did, they were $540 and $500 walls, otherwise they didn't get much coins.

True... but I think they are playing smart here. Buying more like 100 coin in a time and not going big, at least not yet.

I think the going theory is that if they're smart, they're not buying on an exchange.

[edwardspitz]

I'm really angry that wall street is probably buying cheap coins right now (not much, but any is enough)... they should pay much higher price.

Then be glad that if Karpeles sels "his" coins we will get them at a discount.