Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[PrivacyG]

”BTC is a risk-on safehaven.

Gold is a risk-off safehaven.

Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safehaven, this year will be the first proper market test of it.

In a war time scenario, risk-off is the first market response, the second market response is towards safehavens.”

"Willy Woo"

It surely is time for Bitcoin to be finally tested for real.  The 2008 crisis was too early for Bitcoin to show what it can do.  But if Bitcoin gets at the end of the day to NOT be a safehaven anymore, is it bad?  I would not say so.  It can still do exactly what it does right now, just the average human's perspective changes.

In a post-nuclear world in which food has become a diminishing good due to the fact that nothing is growing anymore, your shiny metals and internet money won't be worth a slice of bread. Lets be clear about that. This isn't 1942 anymore.

I kind of get it but I also do not.  If you are the survivor of a post-nuclear world, then what are the actual chances you get to meet another survivor?  In that kind of world, not even seeds, banknotes or coffee is helpful anymore.

If you do get to meet another survivor who is interested in barter, then you can assume they are in need of equipment, in need of food or they have enough food and equipment and want wealth.  I just know there would be some who would look after wealth.  I can only imagine some dreaming about the world they could build with all the wealth they can get by taking advantage of other survivors.  Particularly today's upper class, which can today afford building an anti nuclear bunker to shelter entire families for decades long.

In the last case I have mentioned, even Bitcoin is helpful as long as there still is a way to transact.  If and when Internet becomes a thing again, Bitcoin will still offer us the utility of a censorship resistant currency.  In fact, Bitcoin may be able to preserve its utility way better than Gold does.  Gold is useful today, but in a post nuclear world I doubt it will be used in industry.  I mean, is there even going to be an industry after nuclear Apocalypse?  But still, Gold would be useful too.  Maybe nuclear is not the end of life on Earth after all, and Gold still is one of the rarest metals even after such a catastrophe.  Maybe even rarer when you know there is no mining company doing the mining anymore.  But maybe then all assets become rare.  And then, look at Bitcoin.  Does it look like all these insane bull runs have a particular sense attached to it?  Besides demand and limited supply, but even then Bitcoin still is an asset with bull run cycles like few to no other assets ever had.

Edit.  Maybe Bitcoin's crazy bull runs make sense if I think about halving and the cost of mining.  Cost of flour increases when the cost of production does, right?

Sometimes things do not need to make sense to work.  GME and other assets pumping like crazy is one example.  Who the hell actually thinks assets trending in tremendous hype are worth investing into?  They only make you poorer most of the time.  Bitcoin never really sat in so much good main stream lighting before.  Or at least I have never seen it happening.  Yet it turned out to be one of the best ways to preserve value, earn money and stay away from dirty Fiat.

A post-nuclear world is hard to imagine anyway.  There is just too much stuff that is so hard to predict even if we think we can do it.  But one thing is for sure, there is greed even during war.  Even during the Apocalypse.  There will always be greedy humans and in a post nuclear world it is not an exception.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Farmer Bill]

There’s a will, there’s a way


https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1502398744037408781?s=21

That makes no sense.

I mean, it's great that the energy is being used for something useful but it's still CH4+202 -> CO2+2H20

Left-wing math, presumably.

 If the methane is burned off (hence flare gas), then it's purely an economic issue when it's used for bitcoin mining instead but many oil companies just vent the gas (since it's less dense than air) into the atmosphere rather than burn it and in that case, the unburned methane has somewhere over 20 times the effect of CO₂ as a greenhouse gas.  This is why they're going after cattle as well.  We're going to have to tap those cattle next for bitcoin mining.  Bitcoin miners will also try to make the case that using flare gas removes some reliance from other fossil fuels which have a higher carbon content and coal (pretty much all carbon).  I'm not sure I buy that logic because if the energy comes cheaply enough from flare gas, then older, less efficient bitcoin miners could be used where they would be too inefficient for use within the existing electrical distribution system.

 

I am not sure how we can reduce methane production by cattle without reducing cattle numbers.
For a second there I imagine attaching a methane collecting box to their behinds, but then....it is not possible.

On a large scale the solution is an artificial photosynthesis process, no doubt.
In photosynthesis (done by plants), CO2 is captured from the atmosphere and sugars and oxygen (as a byproduct) are produced.
Two problems:
1. Splitting water at the ambient temperature and
2. Running the system at relatively low CO2 concentration (as plants are able to do).

However, it is a scientific/engineering problem that can be eventually solved aka there is NO reasoning as to why it cannot work in principle.

Info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_photosynthesis

There are additives that can be included in cattle diet that can substantially reduce methane production.

Including extracts of red algae, some types of seaweed, increasing oil and fat content of diet and a new product called Bovaer which requires only 1gm a day to reduce methane output by 30 - 50%.

Given the looming worldwide energy shortages, brought about by the climate change hysteria shutting down fossil fuel generation before alternatives are up and running plus cancelling oil exploration and new pipelines, I can see this sort of stuff surrounding methane put on the back burner for a decade or so.

$39k again I know lots of observers miserable at this price. But I have to pinch myself sometimes, like when we first went over $40k. I repeated to myself forty fucking thousand dollars. Unbelievable, it still is.

Sadly had to sell some coin from my BTC savings / deposit wallet to purchase extra fertilizer, which has more than doubled in price since last season. I'm betting on high farm produce prices this Autumn.  

[JimboToronto]

This is why they're going after cattle as well.  We're going to have to tap those cattle next for bitcoin mining.

Mmmm.



Bitcoin mining at its finest.

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report

Bitcoin currently trading near $39.1kish with candles being vigorously contested locally.

dyor

1h


4h

stronghands

[Farmer Bill]

This is why they're going after cattle as well.  We're going to have to tap those cattle next for bitcoin mining.

Mmmm.



Bitcoin mining at its finest.

You certainly know how to choose a good steak.

All that methane guilt just evaporates away with the thought of that hitting the charcoal grill.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

....

All that methane guilt just evaporates away ......

I never have methane guilt, even in a crowded elevator.
I just blame it on the dude next to me...

[marcus_of_augustus]

.... the whole CH4 argument as to it causing any "climate change" at all is even more unsupported with rigorous science than the CO2 fraud that has become a politicised juggernaut

... CH4 is quite a bit heavier than air and rarely gets above any significant height where it can change the atmospheric solar radiative absorbtion balance ... not only that it has a much faster cycle than CO2 and any changes increases/decreases are backgrounded into earth's other natural processes in 15-20 years

.... the massive topsoil layer of the Great Plains was the result of millenia of grazing bovines (buffalo) eating grass and depositing manure into the soil, this is an obvious net CO2 SINK out of the atmosphere into the soil, grazing stock are net carbon sinks even if you accept CH4 can have a net effect on radiative balance ( which it doesnt)

... methane beat up is just another manufactured hysterical crisis to exert more control over your lives, first it was energy (CO2) lies and now CH4 lies. ...  it's all tidily lining up for control of the means of transport, production and food which is straight out of the communist playbook

... I'm not saying the commies are behind it but when you get more and more shaky, shitty science coming out of the same field (atmospheric sciences) then it's looking a lot like they are under the sway of some kind of political influence or political confirmation biases

... and look around you for the economic results, the evidence is looking a lot like a communist disaster zone that we've observed in many other countries that go down that crazy sociological path to devastation and ruin ... except it's now on a global scale

[Toxic2040]

re medium fibs

4h

D

[sirazimuth]

.....
I just blame it on the dude next to me...

<air biscuit>

......

Wasn't me, that was marcus....

[marcus_of_augustus]

.....
I just blame it on the dude next to me...

<air biscuit>

......

Wasn't me, that was marcus....

... your stalking is getting beyond creepy you freak

... I couldn't help you understand my equation but the issue was on your end ... now this continued obsession with me is not healthy

[Biodom]

... CH4 is quite a bit heavier than air..

You mixed up gases...
methane (CH4) is lighter than air, having a specific gravity of 0.554.
propane (C3H8) is heavier than air (specific gravity of 1.52)

The specific gravity of air is 1.0

https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/specific-gravities-gases-d_334.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

... CH4 is quite a bit heavier than air..

You mixed up gases...
methane (CH4) is lighter than air, having a specific gravity of 0.554.
propane (C3H8) is heavier than air (specific gravity of 1.52)

The specific gravity of air is 1.0

https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/specific-gravities-gases-d_334.html

Don't let science get in the way of a good rant.

[Toxic2040]

.... the whole CH4 argument as to it causing any "climate change" at all is even more unsupported with rigorous science than the CO2 fraud that has become a politicised juggernaut

... CH4 is quite a bit heavier than air and rarely gets above any significant height where it can change the atmospheric solar radiative absorbtion balance ... not only that it has a much faster cycle than CO2 and any changes increases/decreases are backgrounded into earth's other natural processes in 15-20 years

.... the massive topsoil layer of the Great Plains was the result of millenia of grazing bovines (buffalo) eating grass and depositing manure into the soil, this is an obvious net CO2 SINK out of the atmosphere into the soil, grazing stock are net carbon sinks even if you accept CH4 can have a net effect on radiative balance ( which it doesnt)

... methane beat up is just another manufactured hysterical crisis to exert more control over your lives, first it was energy (CO2) lies and now CH4 lies. ...  it's all tidily lining up for control of the means of transport, production and food which is straight out of the communist playbook

... I'm not saying the commies are behind it but when you get more and more shaky, shitty science coming out of the same field (atmospheric sciences) then it's looking a lot like they are under the sway of some kind of political influence or political confirmation biases

... and look around you for the economic results, the evidence is looking a lot like a communist disaster zone that we've observed in many other countries that go down that crazy sociological path to devastation and ruin ... except it's now on a global scale

Marcus..can you honestly say that you have not noticed changes in your local environment? Summers maybe a little hotter and have persistent droughts and wildfires ..winters maybe colder in someplaces..maybe its more rainfall and flooding?

I do know that what I have observed suggests there is something impacting the climate. I dont know what is causing it but I also have observed urban sprawl, deforestation, pollution, reckless over extraction of irreplaceable resources both from the oceans and soil of our planet. Again, it doesnt seem like we have been doing a very good job of it and I think we can do better. Can we agree on that point? Just to try and make things a bit better than where we are right now? That is how progress is made I think...finding the common ground and start building from there.  I dont know how long it will take to fix all of it but its probably a good idea to start on some of it sooner rather than later.


come on man

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jojo69]

The Only Non-Totalitarian Solution to Resource Scarcity: Decentralized Degrowth

The fantasy is that everything will soon be super-abundant and cheap again because creating money out of thin air creates demand out of thin air and supply will always magically appear if there is demand. The reality is super-abundant and cheap is gone for good. Demand doesn't create new supply by magic; if the supply is gone, then demand has no magical power to conjure supply out of thin air.

The other fantasy is that there will always be a cheap substitute for whatever's been depleted. If the oil is depleted in one place, there's still plenty to extract in Timbukthree. Or we'll replace oil with electricity generated by high-tech paint on our roofs, and we'll replace all those thousands of giant airliners using jet fuel with little, slow electric aircraft--nothing will change except we'll continue to have more of everything.

The reality is the current global economy is a Landfill Economy that glorifies waste as growth. The faster shoddy goods fail and are taken to the Landfill and replaced with a new one, the higher our "growth." The greater the waste, friction and fraud, the greater the "growth."

[JimboToronto]

....

All that methane guilt just evaporates away ......

I never have methane guilt, even in a crowded elevator.
I just blame it on the dude next to me...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiZPqTfCBis

My mother had the vicar and the vicar's wife to tea
They cleared the room, they blamed it on the dog
But it was me...
...A gentleman tells before it smells, he waves his jacket 'til it's gone
But I'm the kind of sneaky bugger who lets off and doesn't let on...

[xhomerx10]

 https://nypost.com/2022/03/12/customs-officers-seize-300-leeches-in-philadelphia/

  About 300 blood-sucking parasites arrived in six shipments from Bulgaria between Feb. 19 and Feb. 25 and were headed to destinations in Connecticut, Florida and Illinois, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection in Philadelphia said in a news release this week.


 I can't believe the media uses this type of language when reporting on Bulgarian immigrants.   I know a few Bulgarians and while they're not exactly quick to pick up the tab for drinks or dinner, I wouldn't call them blood-sucking parasites!  That's a little harsh.