Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

People don’t buy gold to chase moons, to get rich quick, or to obsess over “when $100k?”.  (Well, not unless they are idiots.  Serious goldbugs are not idiots.)  Gold buyers are largely motivated by a desire to avoid losing value; I believe that’s what a “hedge vehicle” means.

Gold’s lower volatility compared to Bitcoin is in gold’s favor, not in Bitcoin’s favor.  I would kill for Bitcoin to have gold’s level of volatility.

Too bad that gold's appreciation can't even touch bitcoin's, nor can it keep up with real inflation. Volatility be damned.

What else you got?

Bitcoin isn’t keeping up with real inflation, either.  $30k range in January 2022 was a drastic YOY loss compared to $30k range in January 2021, for starters.

A few months ago, I wrote a long rant to a friend about how the market is corrupted because traders figure PnL in dollars—everything is dollarized...  Years ago, a higher proportion of Bitcoin traders figured PnL in BTC.

Adjusted to pre-Covid dollars (adjusted for real inflation, not manipulated USG stats), I think we have probably already dipped far below 200 WMA.  Maybe even below 2017 ATH.  How much food, energy, real estate, etc. did $19k buy in 2017?  How many dollars are required to buy the same now?

I foresaw this problem years ago.  Sometimes, I hate to be proved so right.

As for gold—I never understood why some Bitcoiners have a grudge against gold.  It doesn’t make sense, and it’s counterproductive.

[death_wish]

Where's Bitcoin CEO? Why he's not answering calls?

only bitcoin CEO can ban me for this.

He’ll ban you after he gets out of a private conference with Sam Bankman-Fried about how to make Bitcoin more awesome for VCs and big banks.

[Gachapin]

PS - Gave you 20 merits for one of yours posts I liked in error. Was supposed to be 10 but clicked refresh to check remaining sMerits so sent another 10. Please redistribute wisely.
(El duderino_is to blame for my generosity)

Now my account will be suspected to be a sockpuppet as well...

Thanks for the golden smerit shower... #nohomo

[Torque]

People don’t buy gold to chase moons, to get rich quick, or to obsess over “when $100k?”.  (Well, not unless they are idiots.  Serious goldbugs are not idiots.)  Gold buyers are largely motivated by a desire to avoid losing value; I believe that’s what a “hedge vehicle” means.

Gold’s lower volatility compared to Bitcoin is in gold’s favor, not in Bitcoin’s favor.  I would kill for Bitcoin to have gold’s level of volatility.

Too bad that gold's appreciation can't even touch bitcoin's, nor can it keep up with real inflation. Volatility be damned.

What else you got?

Bitcoin isn’t keeping up with real inflation, either.  $30k range in January 2022 was a drastic YOY loss compared to $30k range in January 2021, for starters.

I can cherry pick timeframes too.

If you bought bitcoin in March 2020 @ $6-7K/btc, you're up 400%-500% on your investment. Inflation likely gained +30% since then.

If you bought Gold in March 2020 @ $1485/oz., you're only up 25% on your investment. Inflation likely gained +30% since then.

Bitcoin was then, and still is, the better hedge against inflation.

As for gold—I never understood why some Bitcoiners have a grudge against gold.  It doesn’t make sense, and it’s counterproductive.

I don't have a grudge against gold. I own some, as well as silver. I have a grudge against the criminal COMEX rigging of PMs. Gold should easily be at > $5K/oz. by now, Silver at > $200/oz.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Freeveto]

Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional products

https://cointelegraph.com/news/over-200k-btc-now-stored-in-bitcoin-etfs-and-other-institutional-products/amp


And think this suggest in my opinion why Bitcoin is not gonna go to the lows It went to in the previous bear market ,
 because currently there's enough institutional money in BTC that is holding the market up right now.

[death_wish]

I don't have a grudge against gold. I own some, as well as silver. I have a grudge against the criminal COMEX rigging of PMs. Gold should easily be at > $5K/oz. by now, Silver at > $200/oz.

Agreed, and due apologies for misunderstanding you.  But all markets are massively manipulated:  Gold, Bitcoin, everything else...  It is in the nature of free markets that markets do not price according to a rational appraisal of value, all theories to the contrary notwithstanding.  For in a free market, parties with terrifically high capital can be expected to manipulate the market.

Of course, this is nothing compared to the two-decade extreme “bear market” suppression of gold from the 1980s to 2000s.  I believe that that actually occurred for political motives that few people understand, and that I will not discuss here.  (Off-topic/inviting political flamewars not relevant to Bitcoin... something to do with gold-producing countries under international sanctions.)

I think that when Bitcoin is that heavily manipulated, it will signal in a sad way that Bitcoin has matured into a serious, powerful force in international finance.  Alas, I have a small suspicion that that may be starting now—and we are not yet ready for it.  We clearly no longer have the robustness reflected in that “Slaying of the Bearwhale” video I have been obsessively re-watching to comfort myself these past few months (for the newbies: 30k BTC dump under market price was fully absorbed in less than 4 minutes, then the price sprang right back to what it had been—as if nobody even noticed that someone had just dumped 30k BTC).  IMO, we need much more real-world adoption of Bitcoin as money to sustain the kind of pressure that the highly-capitalized market manipulators can bring to bear.

Bitcoin isn’t keeping up with real inflation, either.  $30k range in January 2022 was a drastic YOY loss compared to $30k range in January 2021, for starters.

I can cherry pick timeframes too.

Pick any timeframe you want.  My overarching point still applies:  Bitcoiners are misled just like everyone else, due to a fixation on pricing in dollars, PnL in dollars, etc.^*  Inflation does not only steal away value:  It also corrupts pricing and distorts markets.

We are arguably under 2017 ATH right now, adjusting for real inflation.  Forget about 200 WMA.

^* Pricing, measures of value, and how dollarization corrupts everything.  In my internal thought process, I have fully broken out of the dollarized mindset.  It feels natural to me to price in BTC, to price in XAU—to price in the currencies that I think have long-term value, not shitcoins like USD, EUR, et al.  And I strictly treat BTC exchange as forex, absolutely nothing like a stock!  I identify BTC as my native currency, and fiat as foreign exchange.  But most people are stuck measuring value in dollars; and worse, most people think of Bitcoin as a sort of a quasi-stock.  These is a major points that deserves little essays.  If I do that here, it will need to wait until after I finish a reply to Jay...

[Khanvila78]

Ukraine's explosive allegations against Turkey...

Ukraine has been accusing Russia for stealing grain produced in its territory and shipping it away. They allege that several countries are buying these stolen grains. They said that Turkey is also on the list of those countries.

[hisslyness]

[...]

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[...]

Cruz says a few things that I find debatable; but he made some incisive points.

Near the end of his speech, Cruz warned Bitcoiners to remember Napster.  Although his analogy is imprecise due to Bitcoin’s greater decentralization, it is nonetheless a good and insightful analogy.  Cruz is alarmed, as I am, about Bitcoiners’ naïveté and complacency.

Please stop nitpicking and overextending analogies, as an excuse for continued naïveté and complacency.

You can't put Napster and Bitcoin in the same boat! One was facilitation the distribution of illegal warez and mp3z...

That's like saying to ebay, ohh watch out!.. you remember Silk Road right?... Baffled to think there is some kind of analogical correlation between the two!

Bitcoin facilitates terrorist financing, money laundering, drug dealing (you remember Silk Road, right?), killing cute puppies and kittens, evasion of virtuous sanctions by evil Russians, tax evasion, unregulated financial activity, making the FATF have a collective heart attack, evading KYC (gasp! horrors!), disrupting banks’ business models and making banks irrelevant (not allowed!), and evading the U.S. Federal Reserve’s divinely ordained absolute right to steal the value of people’s savings with inflation (definitely not allowed!)—and it literally destroys the Earth the universe with its insanely high energy usage.

I’d say that’s a fair sight worse than sharing some copyrighted songs.

A country of 1.4B+ bans bitcoin every a few years! What's another country of 300million going do...

If you think that the scenarios are in any way comparable, or that it’s only a matter of headcount, I am not sure how even to begin to explain this.

I am sick and tired of the stupid "Terrorist Financing/Money Laundering, illegal this illegal that rhetoric!!... Show me any other currency in the world that isn't being used for illegal purposes! Do we ban every other currency as well?

I am sure somewhere in this world, cattle is being traded for opium.. someone is bartering food for other products/services.. avoiding some taxation system.. do we ban that as well?

And that above illustrates my point... nothing to do with head count but rather country of influence... country with massive geopolitical and economical influence has banned bitcoin so many times, yet Bitcoin is not dead, far from it!

I love to see the reaction on El Chapo's successor face when he checks his bitstamp account and it down 40% or -$100B, I mean these cartels are laundering their money via bitcoin right?...

[Torque]

Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional products

https://cointelegraph.com/news/over-200k-btc-now-stored-in-bitcoin-etfs-and-other-institutional-products/amp


And think this suggest in my opinion why Bitcoin is not gonna go to the lows It went to in the previous bear market ,
 because currently there's enough institutional money in BTC that is holding the market up right now.

I knew from the moment that big league insiders like Michael Saylor and Elon Musk started buying billions worth of btc, and all the Bitcoin ETFs got approved by the SEC, that institutional buyers were already buying billions worth. All of this buying activity started when bitcoin hit ~$25-30K/btc. IMHO the insiders will defend and support that price range, they don't want to lose major amounts of money on paper.

[death_wish]

[...]

missing_the_point.gif

[...]

Cruz says a few things that I find debatable; but he made some incisive points.

Near the end of his speech, Cruz warned Bitcoiners to remember Napster.  Although his analogy is imprecise due to Bitcoin’s greater decentralization, it is nonetheless a good and insightful analogy.  Cruz is alarmed, as I am, about Bitcoiners’ naïveté and complacency.

Please stop nitpicking and overextending analogies, as an excuse for continued naïveté and complacency.

You can't put Napster and Bitcoin in the same boat! One was facilitation the distribution of illegal warez and mp3z...

That's like saying to ebay, ohh watch out!.. you remember Silk Road right?... Baffled to think there is some kind of analogical correlation between the two!

Bitcoin facilitates terrorist financing, money laundering, drug dealing (you remember Silk Road, right?), killing cute puppies and kittens, evasion of virtuous sanctions by evil Russians, tax evasion, unregulated financial activity, making the FATF have a collective heart attack, evading KYC (gasp! horrors!), disrupting banks’ business models and making banks irrelevant (not allowed!), and evading the U.S. Federal Reserve’s divinely ordained absolute right to steal the value of people’s savings with inflation (definitely not allowed!)—and it literally destroys the Earth the universe with its insanely high energy usage.

I’d say that’s a fair sight worse than sharing some copyrighted songs.

A country of 1.4B+ bans bitcoin every a few years! What's another country of 300million going do...

If you think that the scenarios are in any way comparable, or that it’s only a matter of headcount, I am not sure how even to begin to explain this.

I am sick and tired of the stupid "Terrorist Financing/Money Laundering, illegal this illegal that rhetoric!!... Show me any other currency in the world that isn't being used for illegal purposes! Do we ban every other currency as well?

[...blah, blah, blah...]

Why are you trying to explain that to me?

missing_the_point.gif

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional products

https://cointelegraph.com/news/over-200k-btc-now-stored-in-bitcoin-etfs-and-other-institutional-products/amp


And think this suggest in my opinion why Bitcoin is not gonna go to the lows It went to in the previous bear market ,
 because currently there's enough institutional money in BTC that is holding the market up right now.

I knew from the moment that big league insiders like Michael Saylor and Elon Musk started buying billions worth of btc, and all the Bitcoin ETFs got approved by the SEC, that institutional buyers were already buying billions worth. All of this buying activity started when bitcoin hit ~$25-30K/btc. The insiders will defend and support that price range, they don't want to lose major amounts of money on paper.

FWIW, that was my thinking when I got trapped in a leveraged position, where I could not survive a drop far below MicroStrategy’s DCA (then around $31.5k; I don’t know if that’s changed).

That was also my thinking during the mini bull run late March/early April:  Big investors really need for the number to be up.  (Eight consecutive green daily candlesticks—followed by nine consecutive red weekly candlesticks:  I now suspect that it was a bull trap designed to let Blackrock/Citadel start building huge short positions—carefully timed about a month before the big Fed meeting, as part of a larger strategy to trash Bitcoin, shatter Terra, and melt down the “crypto” markets generally.  Breaking Terra also gave a huge political lever to anti-Bitcoin forces, just when USG is looking to get this evil Bitcoin thing under control—unfair, but politics are unfair.  This is an hypothesis, a speculative hunch, not a known fact!)

I still think so.  I am now balancing that with more attention to parties with opposite motives.

By the way, it is not only simple paper losses for large BTC positions.  E.g., MSTR stock is effectually tied to BTC price.

Much of my own speculation these past few months has been about rich people who lose money in other ways when BTC is too low.  There are now stocks, funds, etc. that crash when BTC crashes.  The market is now complicated, with many moving parts.

[Biodom]

Riddle me this:

If stonks are going to be "bad' and bonds as well, plus RE would "crash" or at least flatline because of high (upcoming) interest rates...then why PTB are STILL reluctant to put the truly big money in bitcoin?

I cannot see any other "escape" route for capital rn.
Maybe gold as well, but bitcoin is 100X times better in almost everything.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Riddle me this:

If stonks are going to be "bad' and bonds as well, plus RE would "crash" or at least flatline because of high (upcoming) interest rates...then why PTB are STILL reluctant to put the truly big money in bitcoin?

I cannot see any other "escape" route for capital rn.
Maybe gold as well, but bitcoin is 100X times better in almost everything.

Because until things change, the status quo will continue... this is the deal they made long ago with the Corporatocracy.

[cygan]

my new favorite 

[dragonvslinux]

PS - Gave you 20 merits for one of yours posts I liked in error. Was supposed to be 10 but clicked refresh to check remaining sMerits so sent another 10. Please redistribute wisely.
(El duderino_is to blame for my generosity)

Now my account will be suspected to be a sockpuppet as well...

It probably wouldn't have, but then you sent 10 merit back to me *face palm*. I only gave you 5 sMerit more than I was supposed to  

Thanks for the golden smerit shower... #nohomo

Anyway, you're welcome. I liked your thinking outside the box. I also remember $3K levels and many wrongfully assuming price would reach $2K or $1K as a result.

I'm not a fan of any uber bullish or bearish opinions right now while price is in a neutral accumulation zone (between the 100 & 200 Week MAs).

You did however fail to redistribute the sMerit wisely, so don't expect more from me in the future  

[JayJuanGee]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

until it actually happens.

In other words.. I doubt they are going to be nice to us... if there were to be such a thing.

Nah, come on. Of course they'll be nice to us, just like we're nice to life forms we consider inferior. The lucky ones will get killed, and others will be locked up in zoos for their own protection, or "domesticated" to entertain the overlords, or become food.

I am not really sure about how far down this alien path that I was going to want to go, and it appears that you have given this a lot of thought, suchmoon.. hahahahahahahaha

In other words, are there aliens in the room with us right now?

Please refrain from naming any particular members.. since I intended that as a rhetorical question...

A country of 1.4B+ bans bitcoin every a few years! What's another country of 300million going do...

When that starts to accumulate with more countries following then it becomes a problem. There is not anything we can do to stop these countries but it is not good news that these countries are banning btc unless you think that people will get sick of being suppressed and in retaliation they revolt by using btc

This illustration shows what happened to the country https://www.facebook.com/Phemex.official/videos/697310468231523/

What's crypto?

Governments want to destroy things that they don't understand or fear.

Does anyone understand "crypto"?



Looks like homer attempted to address a clarification of ambiguity angle...

In my humble opinion, it all comes down to the link between energy and value, complex and inexplicable as it may be. Energy may or may not create value, but value requires energy. There is no "free lunch" in this universe.

This is one of those complex, philosophical topics where the answer is "Yes, but..."

Yes to what you stated above.

But...there are so many "things" in this world today that took a lot of energy and manpower to create (and thus had high value when first created), but their value has now fallen to near zero because humans no longer value them. They don't just retain their value long term because they had a high energy input.

This could happen to any "thing" created, because value is also subjective and is applied to "things" by the emotions of human beings.

It seems that a point that you seem to be pointing out has also bothered me in terms of some of the attempts to suggest that current and future mining is ONLY valuable because it protects transactions, and surely there is a pretty damned BIG ongoing need to continue to reiterate work that has already been done.. reiterate every single coin (satoshi) that had already been issued (made available).  Sure, the earlier coins were issued with a certain amount of energy / hash power that was then required to solve the hash puzzle, but every time  there is a new block (tick tock) every single one of those coins (satoshis) is recognized for where it is and for where it continues to have potential to be transacted - even if it may not have moved for 13.5 years.

Since nothing exactly like bitcoin has ever existed, we cannot exactly know how the incentives are going to continue to play out, but we can attempt to project what seems to be the most plausible scenarios based on as much information that we can attempt to bring to the attempt to answer the puzzle by looking at knowns and trying to speculate about the various unknowns.

So for sure there is something to the question that bitcoin remains valuable based on both its design that gets a kind of validity from energy input - but continues to retain its value based on ongoing energy input as well as speculations that energy is going to continue to be input into it.. .and the amount of energy that needs to be inputted does not even have to go in one direction, so we could end up having a blowing up of the world in which bitcoin ends up having to rebuild too, and it could shrink to 1/100th of its earlier size, and the difficulty adjustment would adjust along with it... or at least that's what it has been designed to do, and even the energy of developers (and the public) to continue to look at the project and to make positive proposals (or even to complain) about whether bitcoin is operating in a way that it was supposed to operate or if there might be a tweak that everyone (overwhelming majority or whatever evolving consensus mechanism) might be able to agree in order to make such tweaks.. so the energy of the mindspace and the labor that goes into the matter ends up serving as another way that a different kind of energy might tie bitcoin back to the real world.. and will bitcoin blow up somewhere along the way?  is bitcoin not Turing complete because it has a certain amount of ongoing touching back to various aspects of the real world through both energy but also through various kinds of human action that might be able to muster up enough social consensus to make changes.. and if NOT the status quo will continue if the changes are not sufficiently convincing?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation