Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

[...]

Anyways brace for it  ...it could be a very boring Bitcoin summer...  

Don't worry. Any hardened HoDLer (who has endured the 2018-2020 period) can handle this. Easily.

This is fine.

I'm not worried.  I have "endured" way more bear than that, but it's fucking boring... every time


meh.. at least I won't get calls from friends and relatives who pretend to be interested in Bitcoin, when actually they just wanna know the next in vogue shitcoin call to get rich quick ...

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Anyways brace for it  ...it could be a very boring Bitcoin summer...  

Don't worry. Any hardened HoDLer (who has endured the 2018-2020 period) can handle this. Easily.

This is fine.

I'm not worried.  I have "endured" way more bear than that, but it's fucking boring... every time

[...]

Yes, it is... If this carries on for a few more months, then we can assume (somewhat reluctantly, given COVID-19, and the war in Ukraine) that the latest ATH marks the top spot for this 4-year cycle. If this is the case, then we should be expecting a VERY boring future ahead of us (I'm talking years, not just a summer). I would expect 2026 to be a very happy year for us, but right now it seems SO very far away... The shrimps, crabs and other low-tier marine species among us should take advantage of this, and pour most of their fiat inflow into a well-designed DCA/BTFD strategy. The coming few years could well be the last chance for many to rise up to a higher floor in The Citadel.

Patience. GTCTTWW.
HoDL.

Edit: Typo.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

This flat sideways movement feels a bit like the sideway movement after the dump Dec. 2018.

Back then, we went sideways over 3.5 months.  ...If we were to repeat that, we won't go up until Sep.


In 2015 it was relatively flat almost 8 months, which would lead us to Jan. 2023.     .... gaaawd...

But I doubt we have a bear market sideways that long.  Too much going on macro-wise.


Anyways brace for it  ...it could be a very boring Bitcoin summer...  

While true, another way to look at this is the consolidations at the lows would be as follows:

2015 for 8 months
2018 for 3.5 months (-56% than before)
2020 for 1.5 months (-57% than before)

(Or ignoring 2020 as wasn't macro low, then for 2022 it could take only 1.5 months consolidation)

It's therefore possible to argue that these consolidations happen faster each time, as Bitcoin's risk notably reduces. This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see price only take a 3-6 weeks to reclaim $30K for good, ie already or very soon. The only consistency between 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 era is approx 3 years before making new ATH. So price could still consolidate between $25K and $60K until 2024 for example.

[death_wish]

@laman_nft3
NEW: Turkey's annual inflation soars to 73.5% in May, highest since 1998.

Ever hear about #Bitcoin  , Mr. President?
https://twitter.com/laman_nft3/status/1533024680629751810?s=21

LOL.  If the official number is 73.5%—what are real-world cost of living prices in Turkey now?

For comparison, the U.S. ridiculously claims that USD inflation was, what, 7% in 2021?  Are Turkish stats more honest than American stats?

Jeez, hasn’t poor mindrust suffered enough already?

If divine Bitcoin punishes those who leverage it on exchange margin accounts, imagine what it does to those who intentionally dump it in a panicked belief that it was actually going to zero.

What about your government-issued altcoin going to zero?

Inflation is the most unfair of the taxes. It's regressive, it huts lower income the most, as they have larger portions of their expenses exposed to rise in prices.
Richer people have probably less impact, as they can consume less of their disposable income, and invest the difference in (sort of) inflation resistant assets.

More than that:  Rich people enjoy the benefits of debt.  Inflation favors indebtedness.  The system is rigged so that debt is extremely destructive to those with inadequate capital, but those with high capital and good access to the system can profit from borrowing money.  For those in a position that is favored by the way the whole system is set up, it is stupid not to be in debt!

That was a part of my thinking that got me in trouble.  I was trying to outsmart the system—to find clever ways to get the benefits of debt, when the system is stacked against me.  Compare my earlier discussion with Jay about Saylor’s use of debt to buy Bitcoin.  For him, that’s just savvy.  For me, it was catastrophic:  I thought I was being clever, but I was only finding creative ways to make all of the usual newbie mistakes.  I managed to stabilize it for awhile, and to hang on for much longer than a newbie could have; but after months of personal torture over this, I eventually lost most of my money anyway.

Inflation punishes savers, deflation punishes producers—that is Econ. 101.  To Keynesians, et al. (or worst of all, NMT lunatics), punishing savers is a feature, not a bug:  They call saving “hoarding money”.  Deflationary money is obviously a great store of value, and it makes for a sound reserve currency; the problem arises when some deflationary-money enthusiasts stick their heads in the sand about the well-known, entirely uncontroversial problems with deflationary currencies, while they hypocritically continue to use inflationary, centralized, permissioned altcioins (“fiat”) both directly, and as a unit of account.  I mention that because I think it’s no less than an historical tragedy that the whole concept of decentralized, permissionless price-stability has now been unfairly trashed by the actions of a scammer with a centralized blockchain.

(P.S., Jay, that relates to something I said earlier, which I think was misunderstood in your reply; I will try to circle back to that sometime.)

[JayJuanGee]

I really start to think that Saylor reads the WO...
[...]

Saylor is just trying to catch up with us, we are only 30844 pages ahead of him.

I wonder, Remember from the beginning Michael Saylor said Bitcoin had no chance,
all of a sudden he became Bitcoin ambassador,  one very thing I have known about Billionaires is that they will only tell you half the truth.

In several interviews Saylor explained very precisely why and how he changed his view on BTC.

Actually, he understands Bitcoin and its implications on a deeper level than most other public figures.


Saylor is no ambassador.  But he puts his money where his mouth is and sacrifices a lot of his time educating other people about BTC.

He wouldn't have to do it... he is super rich... he could just enjoy life fucking models all day long until he dies.

Saylor acts on conviction, because he gets how important BTC is for the world.  And that's what many Bitcoiners value.

Saylor got in very late, the Bitcoin party started long ago while he was busy playing the public critics role against Bitcoin most other figures in the Bitcoin community were busy accumulating more, now the music has changed and Saylor wants to join the party by all means. Anyways he is welcome on the list he can still fill some bags just left over anyway. The best pizza was served long ago.

You are talking nonsense.. Piesel.. Yeah.. relatively speaking Saylor came late to bitcoin, but so fucking what.

Even though we probably should not be kissing the asses of anyone in bitcoin, even if they end up serving as a pretty BIG bitcoin spokesperson in a lot of ways.. And surely Saylor ended up coming to bitcoin in a way that was quite aggressive and assertive in terms of his investment of both money and time, as Gachapin pointed out.

The amount of his splash should lead to a kind of "holy fucking shit" revelation in regards to how much he had seemed to have wanted to put into bitcoin, especially on a kind of relentless campaigning and educational front in which there are not too many smart people (who are also billionaires - maybe bitcoin ended up transitioning into billionaire rather than 9 digit millionaire status? hahahahaha).. who are even capable of articulating a variety of bitcoin related subjects correctly and in such illuminating kinds of ways...   Again, I am not trying to worship him or to suck his dick, but it still seems accurate to attempt to recognize the "holy fucking shit" level of his contributions rather than suggesting that he is an inferior creature because he came to the bitcoin party way later than several other bitcoiners (relatively speaking).

Another thing in relation to your lateness to the party ideas, sure Saylor may well be relatively later to the party than a lot of current OG bitcoiners, but in the whole scheme of things bitcoin remains an asset class/phenomena that is immature (and young, redundant?) as fuck - in terms of the level of adoption being likely in the less than 1% territory both in terms of number of bitcoin adopters who hold anywhere near a sufficient and meaningful level of allocation into bitcoin relative to where they could/should be in terms of their personal circumstances/wealth, and the quantity of monetized value that is currently in bitcoin (likely in the 1/2000ths level or so meaning that the current monetized value is something in the $1 quadrillion territory, but bitcoin has a market cap that is only around $0.5 trillion).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

A nice piece of hopium (from reddit):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhL-NhJKeCo

TL;DR G. Foss has an intrinsic value of btc of $250K and a target of $2mil (in today's $) with no time frame specified, maybe a few decades.

[JayJuanGee]

While we are criticizing him, maybe take some time to watch this.  It's really the best interview so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2DDOyqRltg

I just watched this a bit more than 1 hour video interview too, and I will concede that there is some validity to any kind of claim that Saylor is honing his various pro-bitcoin arguments and some of his ways of talking about bitcoin.

I am not sure if I would classify the above-linked interview as his best interview - because Saylor has had a lot of very good interviews, and in some sense, it seems that he has a pretty good ability to vary some of his talking points, so that it is quite possible that some of his earlier interviews are both going to cover subjects that are more basic or even resonate more strongly for some folks who might need to hear that subject matter angle - so there would be no way that any one of his many interviews (probably around 100+ by now) would be able to capture all relevant and important talking points in a way that is universally the best of all ways of presenting bitcoin matters.

By the way, I am not always clear regarding how much confrontation might be better or the accusation of circle jerk, so in some sense any interview can have differing dynamics when the interviewer might be making a lot of challenges to the interviewee but there could also be ways that some presentation of topics comes out better because interviewer and the interviewee are somewhat on the same page.  In this particular interview, the interviewer did not seem to want to be hostile towards Saylor, but there were several instances in which Saylor had to reframe or recharacterize the way the subjects of the questions were asked.. so in that regard, there seemed to have been some difficulties getting to higher levels of discussion because Saylor continued to identify several necessities to step back and dumb down the subject matter somewhat in order to help to clarify his framework in contrast to how the interviewer had initially framed or reframed whichever topic they were trying to discuss.

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wagmi]

Meanwhile....

BTC Dominance 2017: 44%
BTC Dominance 2022: 44%

[Biodom]

OT: for the science buffs out there...here is something that was unexpected (for me):

https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-to-make-the-universe-think-for-us-20220531/

TL;DR an amazing story on "deep" learning networks, including detailed explanation of "backpropagation"
Spoiler: they can convert the image of the number into acoustic waves and then back into a number (their deep learning system would rec that acoustic wave as a number).

[death_wish]

Even though we probably should not be kissing the asses of anyone in bitcoin, even if they end up serving as a pretty BIG bitcoin spokesperson in a lot of ways.. And surely Saylor ended up coming to bitcoin in a way that was quite aggressive and assertive in terms of his investment of both money and time, as Gachapin pointed out.

He’s more than that.  MicroStrategy is a de facto national intelligence agency for Bitcoin.  Hello, what is their core business?  Their highly profitable business, the proceeds of which they have used to buy all those bitcoins?  Analytics and data mining to guide strategic business decisions.  Business Intelligence.

(This also relates to some points on the POW vs. POS thread, where I will reply later.)

I am dismayed that they apparently got blindsided together with everyone else, as someone out there quietly built up terrifically huge short positions and prepared to execute a multi-pronged trashing of the market, timed to hit right after the big Fed meeting.  But it’s not surprising.  MicroStrategy are no dummies—but (I infer/upon information and belief) Blackrock, Citadel, et al. are no dummies, either.  It is sharks vs. sharks, by analogy to “spy vs. spy”.

(Don’t forget that in mid-2020, Saylor himself very quietly built up MSTR’s initial long position.  IIRC, before he publicly announced it, he managed to scoop up something like 0.18% of the total then-existing BTC supply without anyone noticing.)

Not that timely intelligence on that would mean dumping BTC!  Not for someone who is in it for the long term.  If I had high capital and an inkling that a much higher-capital party was preparing to wreck the market, I would hold BTC long while shorting perps and dated futures, hedging with options, and taking other steps to batten down the hatches and secure my position with the goal of winding up with more BTC and more dollars at the bottom.

FYI, I also take it as highly significant that Saylor and his Business Intelligence company more or less suddenly exchanged their saved-up dollars to bitcoins in mid-2020.  (They essentially switched their savings account to BTC—before they started exchanging some of their ongoing income into bitcoins, and using debt to buy even more bitcoins.)  That is the action of an extremely well-informed investor, who had access to mountains of data that you and I have no idea about.

That’s much more significant than his tweets.  Helpful though those are (thx, @saylor).

[Gachapin]

A nice piece of hopium (from reddit):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhL-NhJKeCo

TL;DR G. Foss has an intrinsic value of btc of $250K and a target of $2mil (in today's $) with no time frame specified, maybe a few decades.

Watching this, it came to my mind that there probably is a natural selection going on right now, with POS shitcoins luring in the dumb money so that the smart money gets its time to buy up the most important POW-Coin on the cheap.

Is that planned? Probably not... only natural selection..


Very fittingly they displayed a steak in a frying pan, when Proof Of Stake was mentioned... 

[Biodom]

Even though we probably should not be kissing the asses of anyone in bitcoin, even if they end up serving as a pretty BIG bitcoin spokesperson in a lot of ways.. And surely Saylor ended up coming to bitcoin in a way that was quite aggressive and assertive in terms of his investment of both money and time, as Gachapin pointed out.

He’s more than that.  MicroStrategy is a de facto national intelligence agency for Bitcoin.  Hello, what is their core business?  Their highly profitable business, the proceeds of which they have used to buy all those bitcoins?  Analytics and data mining to guide strategic business decisions.  Business Intelligence.

(This also relates to some points on the POW vs. POS thread, where I will reply later.)

I am dismayed that they apparently got blindsided together with everyone else, as someone out there quietly built up terrifically huge short positions and prepared to execute a multi-pronged trashing of the market, timed to hit right after the big Fed meeting.  But it’s not surprising.  MicroStrategy are no dummies—but (I infer/upon information and belief) Blackrock, Citadel, et al. are no dummies, either.  It is sharks vs. sharks, by analogy to “spy vs. spy”.

(Don’t forget that in mid-2020, Saylor himself very quietly built up MSTR’s initial long position.  IIRC, before he publicly announced it, he managed to scoop up something like 0.18% of the total then-existing BTC supply without anyone noticing.)

Not that timely intelligence on that would mean dumping BTC!  Not for someone who is in it for the long term.  If I had high capital and an inkling that a much higher-capital party was preparing to wreck the market, I would hold BTC long while shorting perps and dated futures, hedging with options, and taking other steps to batten down the hatches and secure my position with the goal of winding up with more BTC and more dollars at the bottom.

FYI, I also take it as highly significant that Saylor and his Business Intelligence company more or less suddenly exchanged their saved-up dollars to bitcoins in mid-2020.  (They essentially switched their savings account to BTC—before they started exchanging some of their ongoing income into bitcoins, and using debt to buy even more bitcoins.)  That is the action of an extremely well-informed investor, who had access to mountains of data that you and I have no idea about.

That’s much more significant than his tweets.  Helpful though those are (thx, @saylor).

I am in a bit of a loss here. So, you are saying that he was SO well informed that kept buying while SOMEONE was preparing to cut bitcoin price in half?
M. Saylor is a good spokesman for bitcoin, but his buys were mostly (in time) at the higher price with an average of 30.8K or something like that.
He is not a trader, sure, but it was not a great acumen to buy in mid-late 2020. It's not like Winkelvosses, who bought roughly the same numbers of btc (about 120-130K) at $11 or around.
THAT was a prescient buy, made them multi-billionares from a few mil investment.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[CLS63]

Jeez, hasn’t poor mindrust suffered enough already?



@laman_nft3
NEW: Turkey's annual inflation soars to 73.5% in May, highest since 1998.

Ever hear about #Bitcoin  , Mr. President?
https://twitter.com/laman_nft3/status/1533024680629751810?s=21

🇹🇷

The Turkish economy has been managed very badly for a long time. The president Erdogan has the full control of the Central Bank which needs to be independent normally. The 73.5% inflation rate is the rate that the government stated. The inflation rate that independent academicians stated is 160.76%. Every young person who is living in my country is dreaming of living abroad. If Erdogan's dictatorial regime doesn't end by the elections taking place in one year, this would be a disaster for Turkey.

https://twitter.com/ENAGRUP/status/1532608409073242115?s=20&t=p-VzTWNnybNTzwFlxEkXCA

[cAPSLOCK]

While we are criticizing him, maybe take some time to watch this.  It's really the best interview so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2DDOyqRltg

I just watched this a bit more than 1 hour video interview too, and I will concede that there is some validity to any kind of claim that Saylor is honing his various pro-bitcoin arguments and some of his ways of talking about bitcoin.

I am not sure if I would classify the above-linked interview as his best interview - because Saylor has had a lot of very good interviews, and in some sense, it seems that he has a pretty good ability to vary some of his talking points, so that it is quite possible that some of his earlier interviews are both going to cover subjects that are more basic or even resonate more strongly for some folks who might need to hear that subject matter angle - so there would be no way that any one of his many interviews (probably around 100+ by now) would be able to capture all relevant and important talking points in a way that is universally the best of all ways of presenting bitcoin matters.

By the way, I am not always clear regarding how much confrontation might be better or the accusation of circle jerk, so in some sense any interview can have differing dynamics when the interviewer might be making a lot of challenges to the interviewee but there could also be ways that some presentation of topics comes out better because interviewer and the interviewee are somewhat on the same page.  In this particular interview, the interviewer did not seem to want to be hostile towards Saylor, but there were several instances in which Saylor had to reframe or recharacterize the way the subjects of the questions were asked.. so in that regard, there seemed to have been some difficulties getting to higher levels of discussion because Saylor continued to identify several necessities to step back and dumb down the subject matter somewhat in order to help to clarify his framework in contrast to how the interviewer had initially framed or reframed whichever topic they were trying to discuss.

Eehhh.. I was a little hyperbolic, but what I really like about this interview is he goes significantly deeper into some of his ideas.  I think he tunes it for the audience.  He does those fortune cookie quotes for Twitter, he does deep intelligent framing for his baseline audience, but I THINK because this interview was for the cerebral Reason audience he sort of went further and more esoteric.  I enjoy that.  I think his mental frameworks around Bitcoin are extraordinary.

[cAPSLOCK]

Meanwhile....

BTC Dominance 2017: 44%
BTC Dominance 2022: 44%

This is a significant and easily overlooked metric.