Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

Bart (squeezed a bit) upside down so quickly? Thats' unusual. What's next? Another Bart?

had the same thought... really close Barts this time...

[Dabs]

Bart (squeezed a bit) upside down so quickly? Thats' unusual. What's next? Another Bart?

had the same thought... really close Barts this time...

Looks like another Bart going down soon.

[serveria.com]

Bitcoin hasn’t reached mass adoption because it isn’t being used as a medium of exchange. By spending bitcoin, we can demonstrate its usefulness as money.


Source : https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewslet1/status/1534219159806132224?t=j2MkpAh36xmVn6vzikwTXw&s=19

I prefer to demonstrate it's usefulness during the blowoff top...  

[serveria.com]

Bitcoin pizza attack!

1. fillippone
Entry:

Wall of pizza is a first in the WO (wall of pizza>JJG’s wall of text).

WO gang! Fillippone needs your vote!
Click on the following link to Join the official Bitcointalk Discord Server:
https://discord.gg/ahgHyku

Then react with a pizza below your favourite Bitcoin Pizza!
https://discord.com/channels/708770300199698526/978036507979964497/978049219178938389

Achievement unlocked:



The Italian stallion got the pizza badge to celebrate victory in the Bitcointalk.org Pizza Bake-off contest!
My life is now complete.
Thank every one of you who voted for me!

Congrats man! Job well done! 

[cAPSLOCK]

[El duderino_]

Please more Saylor sanity

[El duderino_]

[xhomerx10]

Please more Saylor sanity

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Please more Saylor sanity

Totally agree...  There are folks who make such complex arguments for whatever it is they WANT (me), and those who can chart with technical prowess, but allow the interpretation to be up to the beholder (where IS Toxic?).  But that is, so far, a very reliable minimum for Bitcoin...  And even if we do not go down to ~20k where it points, if we stay here long enough it will catch up, and then guess what!

I STILL am predicting the same thing I have for a long time (the longer the dumber I look) that we are on the very front end of the upward spike of the S Curve.  In fact I think if could touch the 4 year here... but it might be a couple cycles before it does again.

We will see...  no sweat.

[OutOfMemory]

https://twitter.com/adyingnobody/status/1534021359063515137

Ooh.  Intrigue.

(a little easier: https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1ss24a6 )

PPS (For those scared of shady links... This is just a rolled up version of this fellows thread.  I wonder if this is real, and really will expose lots of "crypto" people.  I kind of hope so)

Legend incoming?

@WO-fam:
I'm troubled with some serious aspects as a father atm. I really wouldn't want to be a teenager nowadays. More or less the same problems and challenges as back then in my youth, just a lot worse and more complicated by magnitudes.
At this point i have to admit, Bob, that it seems you were right regarding that stupid space rock...

Bitcoin hasn’t reached mass adoption because it isn’t being used as a medium of exchange. By spending bitcoin, we can demonstrate its usefulness as money.


Source : https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewslet1/status/1534219159806132224?t=j2MkpAh36xmVn6vzikwTXw&s=19

Fuck off with any of those implied assertions that: 1) something is wrong with bitcoin, 2) bitcoin is not sufficiently being adopted (or fast enough), 3) people need to spend their bitcoin in order for bitcoin to  be valuable... 4) if people do not spend their bitcoin, then bitcoin is not going to survive (or have enough utility) 5) we need to do something quickly in regards to being able to spend bitcoin, otherwise the competition is going to eat bitcoin's lunch...

People can do whatever the fuck they want with their bitcoin, and surely there are some disincentives to spend bitcoin anyhow with some of the tax and accounting implications.. and even some of the possible tracking issues (KYC or whatever you want to call it), and if we might sometimes use the expression that normies are going to "get bitcoin" at the price they deserve.. we might also suggest that HODLers are going to choose to shave off some of their corns (aka precious lil) at the time and place of their own choosing... so stop trying to suggest that I have some kind of obligation to spend my corns for the mere sake of it... If you want me to spend some of my corns, then make me an offer for them. What you selling?  Is it worth it to sell corn or might you be taking dollars also?  Is there a price difference?  Do you even know my own situation?  I might not mind spending some of my corns, but if there are options to spend in various ways, then I am going to spend that other less valuable crapola first... if I have any of it...

Of course, on the other hand, if I ONLY have corns, then I don't mind taking an inferior deal in order to get whatever product that you might be offering to part with some or all of my lil precious, but surely I would consider that those who might have put their lil selfies in a position of 100% corn, have put their lil selfies into a pickle in which they do not have very many options, and part of any BTC HODLing strategy should involve figuring out how to manage some of the value allocations of value (which would likely include other kinds of assets and currencies) in order that the bitcoin that is held provides more options rather than fewer options.  In other words, ideally, hodling bitcoin should be putting the HODLer into a position of having more rather than fewer options.

I remember i started here as a bloody noob with opinions like those of "Next-door". I also remember i got my ass beaten up on WO by you in a similar way.
Look at me today  

Bart (squeezed a bit) upside down so quickly? Thats' unusual. What's next? Another Bart?

Maybe a Marge, this time?

[xhomerx10]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/paypal-enables-transfer-of-digital-currencies-to-external-wallets

 PayPal enables transfer of digital currencies to external wallets
The move comes after nearly two years since PayPal enabled users to buy and sell crypto on its platform.


PayPal enables transfer of digital currencies to external wallets

After rolling out the ability to buy and sell crypto on its platform in October 2020, PayPal is finally allowing users the ability to natively transfer, send and receive digital assets between PayPal and other wallets and exchanges. As of Tuesday, the feature is available to select U.S. users, with the feature expanding to all eligible U.S. users in the coming weeks. The first batch of supported coins consists of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Litecoin (LTC).

In addition, customers who transfer their crypto onto PayPal can spend it via Checkout at millions of merchant terminals. The company has been granted a full Bitlicense by the New York Department of Financial Services for the conduct.

Users would simply need to log in to their accounts and enter the crypto section of the application to start transferring transfer coins. Users are generally required to complete a one-time ID verification before the procedure.

Crypto transfers to recipients outside of PayPal would incur a network fee based on their respective blockchains, but transfers between PayPal users will not incur such fees. To protect users' privacy, the firm generates a new recipient address for each transaction into one's PayPal account. PayPal will also not charge fees for incoming transfers,

The company is also working to integrate other forms of cryptocurrency services, such as central bank digital currencies, to boost its digital footprint. It is also exploring the possibility of launching its own stablecoin, dubbed "PayPal Coin." The discovery came after a developer found evidence of such a stablecoin within the source code of the company's iPhone app.

[Hhampuz]

"PayCoin" 

[Biodom]

If someone could not find the link:

https://www.lummis.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Lummis-Gillibrand-Section-by-Section-Final.pdf

EDIT: this is just an overview, shucks!
EDIT2: here is the actual bill: https://www.lummis.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Lummis-Gillibrand-Responsible-Financial-Innovation-Act-Final.pdf
EDIT3: $200 exception IS inflation-adjusted number! NO person is required to use an intermediary (self-keeping is in the text).

[AlcoHoDL]

Hey WO gang!

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations. This is a type of chart that is essentially a polar plot, with the angle representing time and the radius representing price. Depending on the amount of time per degree of angle, and the corresponding price at each point, cycles (or spirals) are formed, that have specific properties that can be very helpful in analyzing and detecting patterns in historical price data.

Warning: LONG post follows. For the impatient, tl;dr-type readers, at the end of the post there is a link to a cool animation that visually captures the entirety of this post!

On to the juicy bits:


VISUALIZATION SETUP

Data source:	Bitstamp BTC/USD historical price data
Data time span:	28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days, or ~7.5 years)
Granularity:	Daily (high/low price)
Radius scale:	Logarithmic (base 10)
Line colors:	Green = Daily High price | Red = Daily Low price
Endpoints:	Trajectories begin near the center (2014 --> $$$) and end near the edge (2022 --> $$$$$)

CASE 1: CHAOS! — CYCLE PERIOD = 4 WEEKS (~ 1 MONTH)



Spirals? Where are they? I just see a blob! Each cycle is only 4 weeks long, and as a result of this, the entire polar chart is filled with 98 cycles spanning the entire 7.5 years of price data. There is no discernible pattern here, and the spirals cross each other wildly, due to price volatility and short cycle period. Day-traders --> You are here!


CASE 2: A PATTERN EMERGES — CYCLE PERIOD = 26 WEEKS (6 MONTHS)



In this case, each cycle lasts 6 months, so the locus trajectory is now 6 times more compressed than in Case 1. This is somewhat equivalent to zooming out in a conventional x/y-type chart. Now the entire 7.5 years of historical price data forms only 15 full cycles. Notice how the spirals are now more spread apart and an outward pattern begins to emerge (outward = profit, inward = loss). It is still not very clear whether 6 months of HoDLing are enough for a decent chance of profiting, because there is still heavy overlapping between spirals, meaning that there are cases where the outer spirals "sink" inwards, resulting in a loss. However, the overall trend is noticeably profitable.


CASE 3: SPIRALS SPREAD — CYCLE PERIOD = 52 WEEKS (1 YEAR)



Zooming out even more (with each spiral now spanning 1 year), we see that the spirals are now beginning to occupy more distinct, more regular loci, and are more evenly spread out in the chart. Only 7 full spirals (plus the tail) are needed to contain 7.5 years' worth of price data. A clear pattern now emerges: by HoDLing BTC for 1 year, there is a very good chance that the next spiral will begin further out (thus ending up in profit). There are still cases where the spirals are intertwined, and this means that HoDLers should be prepared to wait for a little while longer, if they are unlucky enough to end up in those regions.


CASE 4: THE BIG PICTURE — CYCLE PERIOD = 104 WEEKS (2 YEARS)



Bitcoin's long-term upward trend is now apparent. HoDLing BTC for 2 years is a near-winning strategy. Each spiral now takes 2 years to complete, and it takes just under 4 full cycles to contain the entire set of historical price data. Still, there are a few cases where the spirals cross, and this can be a deadly trap for some weak HoDLers. mindrust fell right into one such trap, when he sold his 10 coins at the red-shaded region in the above chart.


CASE 5: A SINGLE, OUTWARD SPIRAL! — CYCLE PERIOD = 208 WEEKS (4 YEARS)



This is the most important of the 5 cases, as it clearly demonstrates that the entire 7.5 years of historical price data forms a single, continuous, monotonically outward spiral, taking just under 2 full cycles in the chart. Note that the spiral loci of each 4-year cycle NEVER CROSS! This means that anyone who decided to buy BTC and HoDL it for a period of 4 years, at any time point from the end of 2014 up to now (2022) would be in profit! There is no continuous 4-year period in that chart that has resulted in a loss. How much profit? By observing the distances of the adjacent (same-angle) loci (i.e., those belonging to adjacent cycles), we see that they are roughly one order of magnitude apart. This means that HoDLing BTC for 4 years within the data set has resulted in an average profit of 10x of the investment value. This is a very powerful result that gives us a taste of what's to come. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but 7.5 years of price data is a big enough set to paint a pretty clear picture of the future. Strong Hands/HoDLers --> You are here!


RELATIONSHIP WITH WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGE INDICATORS

Although it is tempting to equate the above analysis/visualization with the familiar x-WMA indicators (particularly, the 208-, 104- and 52-WMA), it should be stressed that there is absolutely no averaging whatsoever taking place in the above polar plots. What is actually happening is an angular compression of the huge 7.5-year-long spiral, but without averaging any part of the data. In other words, if there was even a single one-day-wide spike in the spiral trajectory, it would clearly show up in the graphs with a line thick enough to fill several pixels (MATLAB has an extremely precise visualization engine that correctly handles such cases). I have, nonetheless, verified this, by deliberately adding a single one-sample outlier to the data, and it appeared very clearly and as expected (see here for proof). To recap: we are talking about daily high/low prices here, not averages which could filter/smooth out fast-changing elements in the data set. Having said that, the observed similarity between the above polar plots and the corresponding x-WMA charts is interesting, and, IMHO, strengthens the validity of both.


WRAPPING IT UP: COMPRESSING THE SPIRAL — VIDEO ANIMATION

For some cool eye-candy, here is an animation I created, which shows the entire process of "compressing the spiral", from 4 weeks all the way up to 4 years! Everything in this animation is generated by MATLAB code and is a result of numerical calculations. Nothing has been added after the fact. Kudos to MathWorks for creating such a powerful and efficient numerical analysis tool—always a pleasure to use.

Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Chart Animation | 28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days)

Enjoy!
__________

"If you are going to invest in #bitcoin, a short time horizon is four years, a mid time horizon is ten years, & the right time horizon is #forever." — Michael Saylor


Edit:

MATLAB SOURCE CODE

Note: In order to be able to execute the following code, a "MATLAB Workspace" file needs to be available, named bitstamp_btc_usd.mat, that contains Bitstamp's BTC/USD historical price data. This file must contain a matrix called data, whose 3rd and 4th column must contain daily high and low price data, respectively, in descending time. Alternatively, this data can be provided in vectors r_high and r_low, respectively, with the appropriate scaling and logarithmic conversion, as shown in the code.

% MATLAB code written by AlcoHoDL --- Wall Observer / BitcoinTalk Forum
% Date: Tuesday, 7 June 2022
% Post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60310898#msg60310898

% Initialize environment
clc
close all
clear variables

% Load Bitstamp BTC/USD historical price data
load bitstamp_btc_usd

% Start video recording engine
v = VideoWriter('btc_usd_spiral.avi');
open(v);

% Out-of-loop variables
i      = 1:size(data,1);
r_high = log10(data{i,3}/10);
r_low  = log10(data{i,4}/10);
dim1   = [0.02 0.08 0 0];
dim2   = [0.98 0.08 0 0];

% Loop
for c = 28:365.25*4
    
    % Generate polar plot figure
    th = 2*pi*(i-1)/c+pi/2;
    polarplot(th,r_low,th,r_high,'LineWidth',3)
    
    % Set position & title
    set(gcf,'Position',[620 300 680 560])
    title('Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Chart   |   28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days)','FontSize',14)
    
    % Set axes labels
    for t = 1:12
        ttl{mod(t+2,12)+1,1} = ['{\itt} - ' num2str(floor((t-1)*c/12))];
    end
    ttl{4} = ['{\bfNow} (' ttl{4} ' days/cycle)'];
    ax = gca;
    ax.FontSize = 12;
    ax.ThetaTickLabel = ttl;
    ax.RTickLabel = {'';'$100';'$1k';'$10k';'$100k'};
    ax.Children(1).Color = [0.0 0.7 0.0];
    ax.Children(2).Color = [1.0 0.0 0.0];
    
    % Add/update left annotation
    if exist('an1','var'), delete(an1); end
    wks = num2str(floor(c/7));
    yrs = num2str(c/365.25,'%.1f');
    if str2double(yrs) == 1, tail = ''; else, tail = 's'; end
    str = ['{\bf1} cycle = {\bf' wks '} weeks ({\bf' yrs '} year' tail ')'];
    an1 = annotation('textbox',dim1,'String',str,'FitBoxToText','on');
    an1.FontSize = 12;
    
    % Add/update right annotation
    if exist('an2','var'), delete(an2); end
    str = ['Number of full cycles: {\bf' num2str(floor(size(data,1)/c)) '}'];
    an2 = annotation('textbox',dim2,'String',str,'FitBoxToText','on');
    an2.FontSize = 12;
    an2.HorizontalAlignment = 'right';
    
    % Force figure drawing
    drawnow
    
    % Capture & record current frame
    f = getframe(gcf);
    writeVideo(v,f);
end

% Close video file
close(v);


Edit 2:

Some further analysis and interesting results based on the above visualization can be found in my reply to a question posted by Hueristic.

[death_wish]

Despite my long animosity towards Paypal, I must admit...

In addition, customers who transfer their crypto onto PayPal can spend it via Checkout at millions of merchant terminals.

...that will lead to a high volume of using Bitcoin as money.

* death_wish grumbles at Paypal users:  “Not your keys, not your...”  (If you want my selfie, look up “curmudgeon” in the dictionary; you shall not get it any other way!)

After rolling out the ability to buy and sell crypto on its platform in October 2020, PayPal is finally allowing users the ability to natively transfer, send and receive digital assets between PayPal and other wallets and exchanges.

With that, Paypal lusers are now no worse than animals “people” who long-term store their coins at rest on Mt. Gox, Binance, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, et al.

New WO poll:  What henceforth will be the new canonical antithesis for those who tell nocoiners, “If you don’t like X, Y, and Z about Bitcoin, fork off and use Paypal”?

I remember i started here as a bloody noob with opinions like those of "Next-door".

You mean that you called XRP “trusted”, you bought altcoins for “passive income”, and you advocated programming in PHP?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

I remember i started here as a bloody noob with opinions like those of "Next-door".

You mean that you called XRP “trusted”, you bought altcoins for “passive income”, and you advocated programming in PHP?

The part you didn't include in your quoted reply was the single opinion i refered to (including implicit opinion/s).
I should have wrote it a bit different = "opinion" (singular).

Literally the anser to your question: No. I didn't, i didn't do that too, but i was coding in php pretty well on a daily basis, didn't use much of the php5 OOP functionality, though. Php wasn't quite the language to solve most problems, but quick and straightforward unlike perl, which requires more geekyness, and i was advocating perl pretty frequently. As a plus it was working out-of-the-box on most distributions other than windoze, escpecially because windows was quite the exception in the serverside environment(s) i was working at. Good for web based interfaces using persistent socket connections, also when you needed direct access to the OS functions.
I only used compiler  langs when i really needed a native binary for a specific platform, which mostly was a desire for windoze targets. Edited Java on *nix machines, didn't like it at all, don't ask me why.

EDIT: Deep inside, i feel it was something about the naming scheme of the classes and methods. #nohomo

Explanation

Ey, BartBuddy, how's your range doing?

EDIT2:
To sum it up: A shitty day.
Good night.

[death_wish]

The PHP programming language is bizarre and, if nothing else, worthy of anthropological study.

Accordingly, I shall now contribute to advancing the state of the anthropological sciences:

I remember i started here as a bloody noob with opinions like those of "Next-door".

You mean that you called XRP “trusted”, you bought altcoins for “passive income”, and you advocated programming in PHP?

The part you didn't include in your quoted reply was the single opinion i refered to (including implicit opinion/s).
I should have wrote it a bit different = "opinion" (singular).

Literally the anser to your question: No. I didn't, i didn't do that too, but i was coding in php pretty well on a daily basis, didn't use much of the php5 OOP functionality, though. Php wasn't quite the language to solve most problems, but quick and straightforward unlike perl, which requires more geekyness, and i was advocating perl pretty frequently. As a plus it was working out-of-the-box on most distributions other than windoze, escpecially because windows was quite the exception in the serverside environment(s) i was working at. Good for web based interfaces using persistent socket connections, also when you needed direct access to the OS functions.
I only used compiler  langs when i really needed a native binary for a specific platform, which mostly was a desire for windoze targets. Edited Java on *nix machines, didn't like it at all, don't ask me why.

EDIT: Deep inside, i feel it was something about the naming scheme of the classes and methods. #nohomo

Since you took my sarcastic reply too literally, I will reply literally.

The problem with PHP is best summed up in the classic titled “PHP: a fractal of bad design”; I suggest that you read it all:

An analogy

I just blurted this out to Mel to explain my frustration and she insisted that I reproduce it here.

I can’t even say what’s wrong with PHP, because—  okay.  Imagine you have uh, a toolbox.  A set of tools.  Looks okay, standard stuff in there.

You pull out a screwdriver, and you see it’s one of those weird tri-headed things.  Okay, well, that’s not very useful to you, but you guess it comes in handy sometimes.

You pull out the hammer, but to your dismay, it has the claw part on both sides.  Still serviceable though, I mean, you can hit nails with the middle of the head holding it sideways.

You pull out the pliers, but they don’t have those serrated surfaces; it’s flat and smooth.  That’s less useful, but it still turns bolts well enough, so whatever.

And on you go.  Everything in the box is kind of weird and quirky, but maybe not enough to make it completely worthless.  And there’s no clear problem with the set as a whole; it still has all the tools.

Now imagine you meet millions of carpenters using this toolbox who tell you “well hey what’s the problem with these tools?  They’re all I’ve ever used and they work fine!”  And the carpenters show you the houses they’ve built, where every room is a pentagon and the roof is upside-down.  And you knock on the front door and it just collapses inwards and they all yell at you for breaking their door.

That’s what’s wrong with PHP.

There is no other language like PHP.  It is undoubtedly the worst programming language that has ever achieved widespread usage.

If we were discussing, say, Javascript, I would acknowledge its strong points.  Sure, the language has some flaws; sure, the Node ecosystem sucks and the browser ecosystem sucks worse; sure, a large proportion of Javascript “programmers” are clueless copypaste monkeys who should be forbidden from ever touching a computer.  But Javascript is not a horrible language, in itself—at least, not in recent ES editions.  I even admit that I sometimes enjoy writing Javascript code.  And there are some Javascript experts who can do wizardry with it.

PHP is categorically horrible.  PHP is an abomination.  Next-door’s advocacy of PHP is like Elon Musk’s claim that Dogecoin is superior to Bitcoin;^* well, it does show that Next-door is as smart and as credible as Elon Musk!  Anyway—PHP is bad, bad, bad.  End of story.

^* Link that I dug up yesterday for other purposes not yet published... lol.  (Analogy added with edits.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation