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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1%)
7/28 - 11 (10.8%)
8/4 - 16 (15.7%)
8/11 - 7 (6.9%)
8/18 - 5 (4.9%)
8/25 - 7 (6.9%)
After August - 55 (53.9%)
Total Voters: 102

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26460040 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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June 09, 2022, 12:57:45 AM
Last edit: June 09, 2022, 01:18:58 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Hueristic (1)



Please more Saylor sanity

I had to click on the underlying link because I was a little bit confused about what was being described in the short-version of the tweet.  Here's the link:
 https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1534256455456530441

Essentially it seems that using the 1458 day moving average (simple) is overly complexifying the matter with too much data and too many tiny (daily)candles, and the 200-week moving average is nearly the same result (but it is 8 weeks short of a full 4 years), so the 208-week moving average would be more accurate for showing 4 actual years; however, no one (except I was using it for a little while) hardly even uses the 208-week moving average (because it is not standard), but probably even fewer of anyone who is anyone uses anything approximating the complexity of having the 1458 days of moving average daily candles.

One thing about the 200-week moving average is that it is a much more standard and a commonly used reference point that might be compared with other weekly moving averages of shorter or longer duration.. but it is very close to 4 years, has a bit less clutter because of fewer candles so it is easier to see each weekly movements, so the 200-week moving average just seems to be more straight-forward as a reference point since it can be found in a quite afew places, as I already suggested.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 09, 2022, 12:59:17 AM

People: *Proudly eat plates of grease and carbs for every meal*

some unknown grease... meh

however good ol old school LARD.. now were talking. thats the good stuff. load me up.

bacon is its own food group.
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June 09, 2022, 01:03:29 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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June 09, 2022, 01:27:56 AM


I remember i started here as a bloody noob with opinions like those of "Next-door". I also remember i got my ass beaten up on WO by you in a similar way.
Look at me today  Grin

hahahahaha

Look at you...

Look at you ...

The new and improved OOM - never makes no mistakes, anymore.  Tongue

Hey, by the way, I might just be a bully (or at least a meanie without a cause).. yet I do remember being wrong a few times too, and from time to time, I even question if there might be better ways for me to attempt to make my point(s), if I happen to have any point(s), that is?   Embarrassed Embarrassed Embarrassed Cry
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Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


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June 09, 2022, 01:58:28 AM

Of course, we have all kind of things going on in bitcoin at the same time in terms of what makes it useful and what makes it valuable and what kinds of liquidation avenues exists (and what kinds of onboarding ways exist).   The mere fact that guys might not be searching ways to buy coffee with their bitcoin does not automatically translate into their ONLY "speculating" bullshit dichotomy that you suggested in terms of SCAM and inferences towards those other various dumbass talking points that we heard from the bigblocker nutjobs in 2017 and we hear them repeated from time to time.

The argument that Bitcoin should be used as money is sound.  It does not logically lead to the conclusion that we should blow up the blocksize—a non-scaling non-solution which would wreck Bitcoin, like taking cyanide to cure a headache.  Strawmanning me with bigblockers is rather unjustified, don’t you think.  Do you do the same to Bitrefill, or to the people who build Lightning checkout terminals for literal purchases of cups of coffee?

I redouble what I said:  A thing that exists only for the purpose of trying to resell it for a higher price is a SCAM and a textbook Ponzi scheme.  If you try to contradict and rebut that, you are inviting that your arguments be used and quoted to shill for thousands of worthless shitcoins in WO.

I did mention in an earlier post that I have a “cordial contempt” for anyone who buys into Bitcoin only to seek a profit—for “ONLY speculating”, as you put it here.  (See end of linked post.)  I explained why.  I absolutely stand by my words there.

[...] like a stock (which is perhaps only part of the story or a temporary status for whatever that bitcoiners might be doing and uie-pooie don't like it) .

Bitcoin is NOT A STOCK, it is NOTHING LIKE A STOCK, and I will rain hellfire on any suggestions that treating it like a stock is somehow acceptable behaviour.  I have an absolute, no-compromise, non-negotiable zero-tolerance policy for mistreating Bitcoin as if it’s a quasi-stock.

You misunderstood my point about that.

Want to buy and hold Bitcoin as a speculative investment in a deflationary currency?  Fine.  HODL.

Want to trade Bitcoin for profit?  Fine.  Have fun trading high-volatility forex.  Indeed, BTC should be a delight to pro forex traders who get bored with chasing a few bps on the EUR/USD pair, or whatever.

Bitcoin is money, i.e., a currency.  A stock is not a currency.  A stock is nothing like a currency.  And in altcoinland, I have recently experienced up-close what happens when people treat an alleged “cryptocurrency” like a stock:  Fungibility gets broken, investors with losses demand some sort of a refund (!) based on how much they paid (!!), and greed-blinded scammers throw the door wide open for securities regulators to crack down on their illegal unregistered securities scheme.

Your tolerance of thinking of Bitcoin like a stock will lead to:

  • 1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.  People who bought BTC for $67,000 will demand special rights and higher equity—because they paid-in a capital contribution larger than people who bought BTC for $200, or for $0.01, or for pizza at a notional rate of 0.0002 unit pizzas per 1 BTC.  They will complain that it’s unfair that they paid literally >26,000,000x more for BTC than some other people paid for BTC.  Unfair!  Think it can’t happen?  That is exactly what happened in Terra, where it was deemed “unfair” that some people paid $100 for LUNA, and others paid $0.000003 for LUNA—all in fair-market trades.  (Bitcoiner honesty:  “A trade happens because both parties think they’re getting a good deal.” — Laszlo Hanyecz.)
  • Regulation as a security.  Existing laws not only allow, but require securities regulators to regulate stocks.  This includes anything that behaves like a stock, on grounds of “looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck”.  Some altcoins, some ICOs, and some of the weirder NFT projects have gotten in trouble on such grounds.  And if Bitcoin, a decentralized system with no boss, gets infected with the brain-damage of treating BTC like a stock, then there is no way to stop people from corrupting it so that BTC really behaves like a stock.
  • Shareholder rights.  People who own shares of stock have rights accorded by law and custom.  People who buy BTC in the belief that it’s “like a stock” will naturally start to demand those types of rights.
  • This list could be continued.  I think I’ve made my point.

Bitcoin is now a topic of mass-media headlines.  It is attracting buyers who have no idea what it is.  I have spoken to people both online and IRL who are just now getting curious about Bitcoin—curious enough to be interested in buying BTC.  Not infrequently, their uncomprehending search for a familiar analogy leads them to:  “So, Bitcoin is sort of like a stock.”  That is innocent ignorance, but it is dangerous ignorance:  Dangerous to them (it’s a great way to lose money!), and even more dangerous to Bitcoin.  It must be corrected—kindly corrected, in the many cases of good-faith confusion, but corrected firmly nevertheless.

As a longtime Bitcoiner, I have a duty to Bitcoin to help keep it healthy by educating the clueless newbies:  Bitcoin is absolutely nothing like a stock.  Bitcoin is a currency.  The correct analogy:  Buying BTC is like exchanging your USD to EUR, JPY, etc.

This means, among other things:

  • When you buy BTC, your paid-in equity is zero.
  • You are not making a capital contribution to an enterprise.
  • Accordingly, Bitcoin has no memory of what you paid for it.
  • When you “buy BTC”, you are exchanging one currency to another.  Your then hold that currency, and your holding is denominated exclusively in that currency:  1 BTC = 1 BTC.  “1 BTC” has no dollar equivalent, no dollar value—except for the freely-floating market exchange rate of an independent currency, Bitcoin, trading against the dollar.
  • By analogy, if you exchange your USD to EUR, the ECB does not keep track of how many dollars you paid-in to their system.  You did not make a capital contribution to Europe—not in the sense of purchasing an equity stake in an enterprise.  You swapped one currency for another.  You now hold hold EUR, not USD.  EUR does not have a dollar-denominated value:  The value of EUR is denominated in EUR:  1 EUR = 1 EUR.  That is easy to understand, and it is nothing like investing in a stock.

These are not nitpicks, and not idle theories.  They are issues both of profound principle, and of grave practical import.  Observe my use here of some terminology that has precise, highly significant legal meanings.

We know that Bitcoin is multi-faceted in its use cases. We know that there is a lot of why not both..

Bitcoin has many use cases.  Treating it like a stock is NOT one of them, but it does have many use cases.

Medium of exchange—store of value—sure, why not both.  However, the cart cannot come before the horse.  Bitcoin’s utility as a medium of exchange is an intrinsic, inseparable part of what gives it the fundamental value that makes it a good store of value.  It is not a tangible pretty thing like gold, so its only fundamental value is its nature as a superior form of money.

I should not even need to be responding to any pints that I made, but hey.. I am willing to entertain matters to some extent including to point out that we know that Gresham's law exists too, along the side of at least 7 network effects that are still building in connection with bitcoin and are at various stages of their growth as well as that some of those same network effects build upon others, snowballing and feedback loops..

All of those theories about Gresham’s Law and network effects stand on my premise that Bitcoin is money.  Not a stock.  Definitely not a Ponzi that exists only for resale to the greater fool.

I’m not sure why you are arguing with my premise, when it is a prerequisite for your conclusions.

Furthermore, in the spirit of Gresham's law, if we already can appreciate  that Bitcoin is the best of moneys, why would we want to spend it first (as I already referred to that)?..

I did hint that “go out and spend your coins!” is, in itself, not exactly the best financial advice.  I myself hate to spend my BTC savings; if possible, I prefer to use Bitcoin as a payment rail, sort of like my own personal version of Strike.  When that is not a practical option (as it often is not), I have developed over the years some methods of personal finance accounting that help me to reduce or avoid the negative effect of spending my BTC—in essence, ways of managing currency exchange risk when I hold an extremely volatile currency.

Since I keep my primary savings in BTC, aversion to spending BTC is a part of how I got in trouble with debt.  A few months ago, I tried settling some BTC-spending transactions by borrowing dollars against BTC, using the dollars to buy BTC, and then immediately spending what was effectually margin-buy BTC.  I thought it was a clever way to avoid spending my BTC—and to avoid exchange rate risk, since I was essentially doing an unprofitable arbitrage trade on margin.  Needless to say, this use of debt turned out to be a very bad idea (although doing similarly with fiat cash would probably be wise).

Much though I loathe spending my own BTC, I also actively seek to use BTC as money—to use it one of my most preferred payment methods, and to support vendors who accept BTC.  The effort and the unfortunate risks that I have taken to reconcile these two conflicting goals shows, at least, that I put my money where my mouth is.
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June 09, 2022, 02:04:54 AM


Explanation
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June 09, 2022, 02:55:45 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that? 
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June 09, 2022, 03:01:28 AM


Explanation
AlcoHoDL
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Addicted to HoDLing!


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June 09, 2022, 03:15:43 AM
Last edit: June 09, 2022, 03:43:56 AM by AlcoHoDL
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Warning: LONG post follows. For the impatient, tl;dr-type readers, at the end of the post there is a link to a cool animation that visually captures the entirety of this post!

[...]

WRAPPING IT UP: COMPRESSING THE SPIRAL — VIDEO ANIMATION

For some cool eye-candy, here is an animation I created, which shows the entire process of "compressing the spiral", from 4 weeks all the way up to 4 years! Everything in this animation is generated by MATLAB code and is a result of numerical calculations. Nothing has been added after the fact. Kudos to MathWorks for creating such a powerful and efficient numerical analysis tool—always a pleasure to use.

Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Chart Animation | 28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days)

Enjoy!

Thanks for that.

Relatively few people will click a link.  Thus, after what it took to scrunch this into an embeddable preview GIF under the forum image proxy’s size limit (finally!), I hope this does not offend the visual perfectionist I know you are:



The video is much better.  Direct link, for those who do not want to load Imgur’s Javascript web app:

  • https://i.imgur.com/4LZJTpT.mp4  14.42 MiB.  (Copy and paste the link to view/download.  Imgur will probably redirect if it gets a referral header from here.)

Do you have any interest in sharing the source?  If not, I’ll STFU.  Unlike HoDLers who don’t mess with margin, I am too poor to have fancy proprietary software like MATLAB; but I am curious to read and understand what you did—maybe someday port it to another language, if I were to become obsessed with it.

Many thanks for taking the time to convert the video to an animated GIF. It does help in providing an instant view of the animated spiral compression, albeit of much lower quality than the full video.

I've already edited my original post, and provided the MATLAB source code, as you requested. I considered including it when I first made the post, but thought that no one would care to see it. I'm glad that someone does! You can port it to another language, but you'll need to write (or find libraries of) appropriate functions for the polar plot generation, vector/matrix manipulation, and video capture/recording. With MATLAB, all of this is provided.

As for the spiral compression algorithm I'm using, it's rather straightforward, I'm just mapping the entire spiral's linear time to an angular vector, and varying (increasing) the days/cycle amount at each frame, thus compressing the spiral. All this is done in just a single line:

th = 2*pi*(i-1)/c+pi/2;

where th is the angular vector, i is the linear time vector, c is the days/cycle amount (the cycle period), and the π/2 term is just to rotate the spiral by 90° counterclockwise, so that its end lies at the 12 o'clock position in the polar plot. The rest of the code is just for the visualization and video capture.

Edit: Improved clarity by rephrasing sentence.
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June 09, 2022, 03:27:10 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), sirazimuth (1), jojo69 (1)

 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that? 

 Phew!.. Thank fuck for that!...
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June 09, 2022, 03:45:26 AM

 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that?  

Why you gotta rip that out of context?

In the context, I was pointing out that on an individual level, I am much less vulnerable to any sort of government action than >99% of people here.  Not invincible—nobody is!—but much less vulnerable.

Although I have never specifically concealed my Bitcoinism, my general privacy practices are so tight that there is no record anywhere that I even know what Bitcoin is.  Thus if, hypothetically, my local government were to ban Bitcoin tomorrow with a penalty of 10 years in prison for HODLing BTC, then I could afford to ignore that if I so choose.

How many people here can say that without being fantastically foolish?  A few, but certainly less than 1%.

How many of the types who brag that “governments can’t stop Bitcoin” can say that?  Probably none:  Fools usually have poor opsec.

How many have never done KYC on a cryptocurrency exchange?
Also relevant:  I have never done KYC on a cryptocurrency exchange.  >99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.
Never done a Google search on Bitcoin-related terms that could be traced to them?  Never discussed Bitcoin on social media accounts that could be traced to them?  Never even browsed a Bitcoin-related webpage (or for many years, any webpage) without strong privacy protections?

I emphasize again that I am not invulnerable.  Nobody is.  But I am much, much less vulnerable than >99% of WO hatters.

I care so much about what governments do to Bitcoin, because I care about Bitcoin.


 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that?  

 Phew!.. Thank fuck for that!...

If public lurkers judge me by the gracefulness, intelligent discourse, and flowing eloquence of my critics, then I am doing great here.
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June 09, 2022, 03:52:28 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that?  

Why you gotta rip that out of context?


  Because I'm only concerned about your use of the term "hatters"
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June 09, 2022, 04:01:20 AM


Explanation
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June 09, 2022, 04:15:25 AM
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@death_wish   We get it, you've been here. Please turn it down, lest you challenge wordy-man on words per inch.
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June 09, 2022, 05:04:55 AM


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June 09, 2022, 05:08:30 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (1)

 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that?  

Why you gotta rip that out of context?

In the context, I was pointing out that on an individual level, I am much less vulnerable to any sort of government action than >99% of people here.  Not invincible—nobody is!—but much less vulnerable.

Although I have never specifically concealed my Bitcoinism, my general privacy practices are so tight that there is no record anywhere that I even know what Bitcoin is.  Thus if, hypothetically, my local government were to ban Bitcoin tomorrow with a penalty of 10 years in prison for HODLing BTC, then I could afford to ignore that if I so choose.

How many people here can say that without being fantastically foolish?  A few, but certainly less than 1%.

How many of the types who brag that “governments can’t stop Bitcoin” can say that?  Probably none:  Fools usually have poor opsec.

How many have never done KYC on a cryptocurrency exchange?
Also relevant:  I have never done KYC on a cryptocurrency exchange.  >99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.
Never done a Google search on Bitcoin-related terms that could be traced to them?  Never discussed Bitcoin on social media accounts that could be traced to them?  Never even browsed a Bitcoin-related webpage (or for many years, any webpage) without strong privacy protections?

I emphasize again that I am not invulnerable.  Nobody is.  But I am much, much less vulnerable than >99% of WO hatters.

I care so much about what governments do to Bitcoin, because I care about Bitcoin.


 
>99% of WO hatters are not me, and not anything like me.


 Why you gotta be like that?  

 Phew!.. Thank fuck for that!...

If public lurkers judge me by the gracefulness, intelligent discourse, and flowing eloquence of my critics, then I am doing great here.

Mate you might be legend in your own lunchbox, maybe it's just me, but i get the impression you are a know-it-all pub trivia champion or fuckwit!

Just because there's apparently no trace of you owning Bitcoin, interacting with Bitcoin, doesn't make it any less illegal (not the right choice of word, but keeping in the theme of less vulnerable), if the above scenario was to come true. You are in the same boat as everyone else! Your Bitcoin is as illegal as my Bitcoin is!...

But hey, spin any which way you want with your gracefulness and intelligent discourse... just don't assume you know everything about everyone here! likewise i wont assume you are a know-it-all pub trivia champion!

BTW aren't you the same guy who lost most of his bitcoins in margin trading? or was that just another one of your misdirection, Harry Houdini trickery... to through off the hounds trying to find out who you are...



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June 09, 2022, 05:11:51 AM
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June 09, 2022, 05:46:58 AM

Quote
Something is fundamentally different about current halving's "bear market".


https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1534509161635106816
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June 09, 2022, 05:48:29 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

I’m not trying to find out…

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June 09, 2022, 06:05:57 AM


Explanation
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