Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

@death_wish: aim for one (1) BTC. This should be enough to set you up for life. Now is a golden opportunity to get it at a very low (relatively speaking) price point.

Thank you kindly.  You are right about getting at least 1 BTC.  I have been in a little bit of a daze trying to figure out how to scratch together purchase funds for that.  Before you posted that—thinking, Need 1 BTC.  Wrote to a friend that I need at least 1 BTC before I die.  Not even thinking about riches—it is a much deeper need for me, 1 BTC.  Then, your post...  I sat staring at your post, pondering it.

[...]

To get together $20k (or soon, $21k if we’re bouncing?) dollar cash ASAP is very far out of reach for me right now.  The margin account ate the assets that I could have used for such a thing.

Needless to say, I have been mulling a strategy to liquidate scraps in various potential near-future market conditions, to piece together a portion of a bitcoin.  Trying to estimate how to time what, to get the most BTC I can.  To give myself a headstart back towards 1 BTC.

You must be able to get payment for your labor one way or another. Just dedicate a portion of it to buying BTC on a regular basis and you'll probably get to 1 BTC. It won't happen quickly but it will slowly build. And even if you only got 0.5 BTC or 0.25 BTC that is still a hell of lot when you consider there is only 21 million of them.

Without going into private financial details on a public forum...  My life has gone in a direction not really suited to the DCA strategy, and all of my planning has been dependent on assets that are now gone.  I like my independence.

My earlier post addressed to Jay about wandering off to an altcoin ecosystem may have been unfairly snide, but it was true.  The best (least-bad?) option on my table is to finish the moneymaking robot that I started developing too late to save my BTC.  If the defi ecosystem where I have experience doesn’t totally die, my triangular/quadrangular arb bot will beat the hell out of competitors.  I am a C programmer who digs into the internals of things, and who takes pleasure in minute optimizations.  Most competitors are assembling ready-made Lego blocks made in Javascript—or at best, using a pile of Rust libraries without understanding what’s going on under the tower of abstractions.  Estimated further development time to v1.0 is about a month of being not worn out, sleep-deprived, and distracted.

And even if you only got 0.5 BTC or 0.25 BTC that is still a hell of lot when you consider there is only 21 million of them.

I always think in those terms.  I remember when I touched 2.1 BTC not so very long ago:  Wow, a ten-millionth of the world’s reserve money supply!

I feel for you and I hope you can get back on your feet.

Thanks.  I rag on it sometimes, but WO has been a lifeline for me lately.  I DGAF about those who dislike me.  The friendly messages (starting in May with Jay and Heater trying to help me avert impending doom) are what matter to me; and this has removed some torture from a business-savvy friend who told me in January, when I was already mostly trapped, “Risk debt against BTC?  Are you fucking crazy?”, then spent the ensuing months patiently suffering having to watch me deal with this.

[El duderino_]

[ImThour]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

[cAPSLOCK]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

This is SUPER interesting!  And surprises me.  Huh.

Russia is new to this game, but previous players would suddenly reverse these sorts of declarations...

You know... maybe it is just my perma-bull insanity, but I am wondering if there are not some very powerful folks realizing they have to make some bold moves to get a position in the size they would want...

[empowering]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

This is SUPER interesting!  And surprises me.  Huh.

Russia is new to this game, but previous players would suddenly reverse these sorts of declarations...

You know... maybe it is just my perma-bull insanity, but I am wondering if there are not some very powerful folks realizing they have to make some bold moves to get a position in the size they would want...

Hasn't Russia announced and flip flopped several things re BTC and crypto before?

[PokestarFan]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.

https://i.imgur.com/MzK8SVs.png
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

Lol I'm not even a bitcoin fan but Russia's ban doesn't matter since like 15 people in Russia have enough money for crypto

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.


https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1537023379949199362

[Wilhelm]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

Lol I'm not even a bitcoin fan but Russia's ban doesn't matter since like 15 people in Russia have enough money for crypto

And those 15 are sanctioned to infinity 

[Gachapin]

the tide will turn eventually...  all the brrrr money has to go somewhere...  keeping cash is no option long-term

call me delusional but I wouldn't be surprised, if we saw 100k within a year.. the road for that possibility is just getting cleared from all the obstacles aka lending scams and weak hands

edit: ok, let's say 2 years  

[death_wish]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

This is SUPER interesting!  And surprises me.  Huh.

Russia is new to this game, but previous players would suddenly reverse these sorts of declarations...

You know... maybe it is just my perma-bull insanity, but I am wondering if there are not some very powerful folks realizing they have to make some bold moves to get a position in the size they would want...

Hasn't Russia announced and flip flopped several things re BTC and crypto before?

A general observation, without wishing to take anyone’s side here:

People in Western democratic countries, especially the United States, tend to view others with the subjective assumption that others think like they do.

In the opposite direction, it is not so:  The others tend to be very well understand that people in Western democratic countries think very differently than themselves.  This leads to a greater objectivity—from self-interest, if nothing else; it is self-defeating to misunderstand the rest of the world.

This applies in different ways to Russia, to China, to Arab and Muslim states—to any society that has a radically different worldview than that which is prevalent and pervasive in Western democratic countries.  Naturally, given that such societies are also radically different from each other, the same applies as between them.

It is a different level of the problem that Americans don’t “get” Europe (much as they think they do), while Europeans tend better to understand Americans.

I doubt that many people here could understand on any deep level how the Russian government perceives money, what their motives and priorities are with respect to monetary systems, how they may analyze these problems and try to implement solutions—what makes them tick.  I know I don’t.  I do expect that their approach to such matters will probably be very different than how Yellen, Wall Street, et al. would approach the same matters from the same position; and I am unsurprised if the external view of their decisions looks surprising.

[somac.]

the tide will turn eventually...  all the brrrr money has to go somewhere...  keeping cash is no option long-term

call me delusional but I wouldn't be surprised, if we saw 100k within a year.. the road for that possibility is just getting cleared from all the obstacles aka lending (=shorting) scams and weak hands

edit: ok, let's say 2 years 

Not delusional. If the Fed reverses this is a possible outcome.

[empowering]

Doesn't help at all in the current environment.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537044328639520770

Lol I'm not even a bitcoin fan but Russia's ban doesn't matter since like 15 people in Russia have enough money for crypto

[Wilhelm]

the tide will turn eventually...  all the brrrr money has to go somewhere...  keeping cash is no option long-term

call me delusional but I wouldn't be surprised, if we saw 100k within a year.. the road for that possibility is just getting cleared from all the obstacles aka lending (=shorting) scams and weak hands

edit: ok, let's say 2 years 

Not delusional. If the Fed reverses this is a possible outcome.

Yup looking at the log curve channel 340k in 2025 could be the next ATH.

[jojo69]

steady...............

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

purchased a piece of btc today.

my btc holdings are now 1.9x larger than they were on Sunday

I have more cash for the drops to come.

Still guessing 15-17k = bottom

[death_wish]

all the brrrr money has to go somewhere...

If Germany doesn’t get some sufficient and available source of energy by winter, they can do with Euros like they did with Marks in the Weimar Republic.  Americans can ship in dollars, and Brits can contribute their pounds.  It is a humanitarian effort.

brrrr = an onomatopoeic representation of sounds emitted by people who are are cold.

brrrr = a reliable, renewable source of home heating fuel.

Can it be mere happenstance?  A coincidence?

[proudhon]

the tide will turn eventually...  all the brrrr money has to go somewhere...  keeping cash is no option long-term

call me delusional but I wouldn't be surprised, if we saw 100k within a year.. the road for that possibility is just getting cleared from all the obstacles aka lending (=shorting) scams and weak hands

edit: ok, let's say 2 years 

Not delusional. If the Fed reverses this is a possible outcome.

It is not a possible outcome for a year or even 2 years. Possibly in 10, but then a new Toyota Corolla will start at $100,000.

[dragonvslinux]

Two Upcoming Scenarios -

1. If Weekly Candle closes below 200 MA, we are going towards 300 MA i.e. 16k.
2. If Weekly Candle closes above 200 MA, we are going towards 30k.

Let's see how this goes on from here. Fed hiking up bps to 75 will cause some huge movements either up or down.

While I find the 300WMA a useful comparison to a covid-like crash, technically your analysis is somewhat flawed (point 1). In March 2020 price came close to the 300WMA, before closing just below the 200WMA. Price then re-tested in between the two levels the following week. So by comparison, price could reach $16.6K over the weekend, before closing above $20K. Or simply wick down to $16K level next week even.

I wouldn't be ruling out another wick below the 200WMA next week though, even with the Weekly RSI now most oversold since 2011, as the RSI won't necessarily close at such oversold levels. In fact, I think it's unlikely and by Sunday (or on Sunday) buyers will step in for the trade of the decade. Either way, I think a snap back to at least $25K is imminent, even $30K, whether this weekend or next week.

A few boring months of consolidation between $25K and $30K is quite likely now that $30K has been established as a distribution zone (as opposed to neutral accumulation/distribution zone), with bears still believing price will drop to $14K. Similar to early 2019 with bears waiting on $2K and $1K that never came, before price returned to $5K and the dead cat bounce led by short liquidations led to $14K.

[fillippone]

the tide will turn eventually...  all the brrrr money has to go somewhere...  keeping cash is no option long-term

call me delusional but I wouldn't be surprised, if we saw 100k within a year.. the road for that possibility is just getting cleared from all the obstacles aka lending (=shorting) scams and weak hands

edit: ok, let's say 2 years 

Not delusional. If the Fed reverses this is a possible outcome.

It is not a possible outcome for a year or even 2 years. Possibly in 10, but then a new Toyota Corolla will start at $100,000.

Oh, here you are!
Don’t forget we have a bet in place!
Every down movement, I am thinking of you.
Can’t wait putting a positive trust feedback on you when it happens!