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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26381155 times)
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ImThour
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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June 16, 2022, 01:01:49 PM

Simplest Technique which has given us bottom in call in all the previous cycles.
25 EMA crossing 100 MA on Weekly Chart.  Wink


So we are already in week 4 of 5 so we need 1 more week to get 5/5 next week.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes
The above mentioned crossover has already happened this week. Not sure why we have to wait for 1 more week.
Either way, pretty much close to the bottom.
I HATE TABLES I HATE TABLES I HA(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ TABLES I HATE TABLES I HATE TABLES
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June 16, 2022, 01:02:03 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

I bought a little bit over a millibitcoin at $21,589 a few hours ago.  On margin.  

It's like a drug.. the addict never learns...

You cherry-picked that out of context.

Your overall reply here shows that you have a lack of proportionate thinking, and an inability to evaluate the situation beyond searching for evidence to suit your own confirmation bias.

I though that that post was rather droll, in a tragic way that is also pathetic and embarrassing to me.  Needless to say, I am conscious of the irony.

<snip>
 so I suppose if you need some money later, there might be some of us bitcoiners who might be willing to hire you to help us out with some stuff.. perhaps? If you are bitter, we might not want to give you anything that really requires much discretion though... not sure.. I am a bit reluctant to get involved with some folks who are showing even small signs of bitterness, and being smart and bitter causes me to worry, too.

When you speak of “some of us Bitcoiners” and “we”, you are obviously speaking for yourself.  You don’t speak for me, of course.  I will address you accordingly.

I did not ask you for money.  I did taunt you to the effect that if you want to tell me to write code according to your expectations, then you had better offer to pay me.  You had said something ungracious, self-entitled, and insulting to me; I replied accordingly.

I value my independence.  That’s why I am in Bitcoin.  What you call “fuck you status” is really just being a Bitcoiner.  Nocoiners comply with banks limiting their discretion about such matters as how much money they can send, and to whom.  Nocoiners cry for regulators to protect them from making poor investment decisions.  Nocoiners need hand-holding.  Bitcoiners have “fuck you status”, even with 0.0495 BTC.

I live exclusively according to my discretion—not yours, Jay.  I live according to my own discretion, and I take responsibility for the results—just as I firmly expect from others.  Your insinuation that some kind of a limit should be imposed on my discretion is an absurd conceit.  As for others:  If anyone does not wish to rely on my discretion, I invite that person please to never, ever do business with me.  My independence of judgment and action is NOT FOR SALE.  Incidentally, if I were seeking employment, my outlook on life would make me more valuable to anyone who seeks to hire someone self-motivated, goal-oriented, and reliable in the keeping of promises.  (Those who want to hire deadweight, doormats, and yes-men would need to look elsewhere.)

If I wanted to make money kissing arse, I know exactly where to go and whom to ask at the Solana VC/shitcoin feeding trough.  I could get paid much more there than here.  It is actually not as corrupt a scenario as some things here—much less corrupt!  On this forum, for instance, I could easily attain DT status if I were willing to compromise my principles, lie about matters of reputation and trustworthiness, and suck up to scum who make typical Solana defi players look like saints by comparison.  It’s sad to see what the community now accepts on Satoshi’s forum.

Here, I am seeking to connect with like-minded developers, on terms of mutual respect and of meritocracy.  It may be a waste of time here, but it’s worth a shot; there are still some very smart people here.  Most Bitcoin development nowadays happens far, far away from this forum.

Here, I often discuss issues of public importance that are not about my self-interest.

I may someday seek to trade on this forum—for contract work, or otherwise.  If I do, then I don’t care if you are “reluctant”, or deem me “bitter”—no problem; don’t trade with me.  Those who appreciate my expertise, my life-and-death absolutism about honouring contracts, and my no-nonsense attitude about work will trade with me.  If I seek any other sort of financial activity here, it will likewise be on proper terms.  (E.g., I was considering seeking on proper terms to restructure my margin debt with a forum lender—well, too late for that now!)  If I ever seek to do business on this forum, I explicitly request that people should consider my offers on business terms—without any regard whatsoever to irrelevant details of whether or how much I really, really, really-really-really need that money.  Businessmen don’t beg, and beggars don’t get business.  Venting my personal grief is a separate topic:  When I do business, I mean business.

Furthermore, I take exception to your hint that my neediness could ever be used by you to lead me around by the nose.  To the contrary:  I would literally rather starve to death.  And furthermore:  Some people may lamentably misinterpret your post as somehow meaning that I am seeking money in this discussion.  Some people are not very good readers.

I must emphasize that I have been at pains to avoid any implication whatsoever of seeking money from people when I am clearly in financial desperation.  I am not here for that!  When I made Jr. rank and set a signature, I did not even put in a tip address—as you have in your otherwise unpaid signature, Jay, and as you are entitled to.  I am likewise so entitled; I often spend an absurd amount of time and effort writing posts that people value, on topics unrelated to the state of my personal finances.  I may put up a tip address sometime, but I am especially reluctant to because of my current financial situation.  I do not want for anyone to get the wrong idea about me.  I mercilessly report beggars for violation of forum rules.

Let’s put it this way:  I have friends who have money, who know about my situation—and who would drop-kick me to hell if I asked them for charity to compensate for my own foolishness.  That’s why they are my friends:  My kind of people.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

That does seem as if it is likely a pretty strong conclusion that is supported by the evidence.

P2PECS is full of nonsense, both here and subsequently.  My reply to the above-quoted post was diplomatic; I didn’t want to offend him when he seemed sympathetic to me, and I had not yet seen this:


The person most to blame for popularizing this is Michael Saylor, the exchanges took advantage of his message to make a lot of money.

What do you mean by this, exactly?

That awful Michael Saylor has surely ruined us all with his overconfidence in his own intelligence!  “That does seem as if it is likely a pretty strong conclusion that is supported by the evidence.”

As for you, Jay, I must ask:  Do you believe that an appropriate response here is to attempt to undermine my self-confidence, when I am already crushed—all based on your duplicitous exercise of confirmation bias to fit me into the conclusion you want to draw?  If so, then I would think that you are dangerous to anyone who is psychologically more vulnerable than I am.

Asking for a friend.


$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

Frequently the person who has the issue cannot really identify  or even be in a position to solve such a problem.. at least not until sufficiently and adequately distancing themselves from the situation (and perhaps from ego too?)... It can be quite sad and even frustrating to read these kinds of accounts..

There doesn’t seem to be much sense in wasting time replying to you further, after this.  somac.’s question was reasonable in the context; I subsequently answered it.  Your response here is not reasonable at all—to the contrary.

You have displayed exceedingly poor judgment in some of your recent posts addressed to me.  This hereby supports my prior assessment, which I had been questioning:  You have decided on a narrative about me; and you will tell it to yourself and others, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.

It can be quite sad and even frustrating to see these kinds of accounts.
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June 16, 2022, 01:03:27 PM


Explanation
savetherainforest
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June 16, 2022, 01:10:04 PM
Last edit: June 16, 2022, 01:32:03 PM by savetherainforest
Merited by Dabs (1)

Simplest Technique which has given us bottom in call in all the previous cycles.
25 EMA crossing 100 MA on Weekly Chart.  Wink


So we are already in week 4 of 5 so we need 1 more week to get 5/5 next week.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes
The above mentioned crossover has already happened this week. Not sure why we have to wait for 1 more week.
Either way, pretty much close to the bottom.

Bottom could be between weeks.   Cheesy   Cheesy

*edit(): .. from the looks of it also the bar/candle for the 20/06/2022 will be a greed one. So I'm not saying that wick will be the same or that the candle will start from the same level on the day of 20+. But meaning that 20+7 on the day of 27 June, the Candle will be most probably 99.95%+ green.  Grin  Grin
The conclusion for what I said is that the bottom could be 2 days before the day of 20, so 13 < > 18 June is the week of the dips.  Cool  Cool
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June 16, 2022, 01:42:43 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 01:07:15 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by Torque (1), goldkingcoiner (1)

Best bottom indicator yet? Genuinely sounds like Peter is trying to troll himself here...






I do not think that is possible as I said earlier if, Bitcoin goes below 20k then institutional investors are leaving.

I think this is complete nonsense. If Bitcoin goes below $20K enough who have been around for a cycle already will buy down to $10K and simply become more aggressive buyers. Institutions will buy because the asset is undervalued and it still remains the strongest long-term inflation hedge. The price is effectively barely relevant, but whether a fundamentally strong asset is under or over-valued.

If this happens then it is probably a red flag and we will see a low as 3k. I don't think it will happen as in general institutional investors would rather capatalize this opportunity or leave the market. Another important thing about institutional investers is that they always invest for long-term and that can be a minimum of 5 years or more.

These are the sort of numbers that even a covid-capitulation won't see imo. If price returned to $3K, it'd probably take 5-10 years to get there, and continue onto $1K while it's at it.
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June 16, 2022, 01:53:22 PM
Merited by Dabs (1), a1 Hashrate LLC2022 (1)

I expect price behavior at regional bottom yesterday to mirror regional top at 69K. Both are artificial and highly manipulative. You know, there are tons of funny money in hedge funds managed by people that are baptised in TA astrology religion.
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June 16, 2022, 01:56:04 PM
Merited by death_wish (2), JayJuanGee (1), Dabs (1), fr4nkthetank (1)


https://twitter.com/10kdiver/status/1537385102153424899
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June 16, 2022, 01:56:11 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 01:07:00 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by Biodom (1), Dabs (1), a1 Hashrate LLC2022 (1)

There's enough fundamental and technical reasons why many think $20K was the bottom. See below for why it also might not be...



Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cheaper-than-it-looks-fidelity-exec-says-btc-undervalued-and-oversold



Source: Weekly RSI (Lowest ever recorded level)



Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/



One reason why it might not be... price has only just entered the capitulation zone.



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

Here's another way to look at that metric.



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

Currently staying neutral until the end of the week  Smiley
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June 16, 2022, 01:56:34 PM
Merited by Dabs (2), jojo69 (1)

Another laff. Check the guy's shirt.

https://twitter.com/moonakitty/status/1536848494828195840
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June 16, 2022, 02:03:28 PM


Explanation
ImThour
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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June 16, 2022, 02:20:28 PM
Merited by Dabs (3), dragonvslinux (1)

See below for why it also might not be...

You know right lookintobitcoin has a delay of 1-2 days on all the indicators/charts? Smiley


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June 16, 2022, 02:43:34 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)


Cute painting by the artist.
FED is actually the real cause of this stag-flationary inflation in place with their ugly policies , rates and money printing.
and now they're trying to pull that rug, in the process destroying economy.
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June 16, 2022, 02:59:26 PM
Merited by ImThour (2), vapourminer (1), Dabs (1)

my lowest buy this dip was at ~24.5k usd. if this is the bottom thats close enough for me. it was a buy i had set up months ago and i actually forgot about it till it triggered.

ive been on cruise control for a long time and dont try to time anything. seems to work well enough.

I am calling it bottom this week 101%. Lowest we can go in 3 days, $18k. That's it imho.
There can be a long ass wick however closing will be pretty much be up 2017 ATH levels.
Long term, very safe bet.

Just to be the contrarian... this is exactly what has happened multiple times with the 200WMA and just about ALL Bitcoinner TA folks are pointing to this as the most concrete indicator we ever use.  Members of this thread (including you) have suggested exactly this would happen since BEFORE the last ATH was reached.

We could expect in a worst case scenario we wick under the line and close the week close to it and start back up from there...

But max pain would come with a different outcome.

I think it is also interesting to think that the whole world is looking at this right now.  I would GUESS that institutional and pro investors are very close to backing up the truck here or already are.  We should see a HUGE bullish defense of ~20k.  But the people who hate bitcoin may also want to try to move the market into territory that would appear very negative.  If you want to kick it while it's down THIS would be the time to send out the FUD (ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA!!!) or try to manipulate again with leveraged positions on retail exchanges.

Bitcoin is no longer magical internet money for geeks.  It is a reliable worldwide reserve asset (in adolescence).

We have been to the 200WMA before... but never exactly like this.  Is it different this time?  I honestly hope not.  I would love to see it do what so many expect.

But so many expect it...
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June 16, 2022, 03:03:32 PM


Explanation
ImThour
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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June 16, 2022, 03:09:24 PM
Merited by Dabs (1), dragonvslinux (1)

Haven't shared this with anyone who knows me IRL (though I have many Crypto Friends) and really wanted to share this with all of you.

I made a good amount of profits in Binance Futures (IK, Leverage trading is risky but I only did x3 for all the trades) just by believing on my own ideas and analysis.
I know this is not a big amount of money for many of you here but believe me, I have turned like $3k to $17k with just simple trades. The best being this week, a short from $31k to $22k.

I am no longer willing to invest a single dollar on leverage trading and have already invested good amount of money on buying the current correction.
Not a flex or something, just wanted to show everyone what you can achieve by believing in yourself.  Cheesy

Ignore my handwriting though, spent most of my life being a keyboard warrior.
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June 16, 2022, 03:50:53 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), Dabs (1)

There's enough fundamental and technical reasons why many think $20K was the bottom. See below for why it also might not be...



Source: https[Suspicious link removed]c-says-btc-undervalued-and-oversold



Source: Weekly RSI (Lowest ever recorded level)



Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/



One reason why it might not be... price has only just entered the capitulation zone.



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

Here's another way to look at that metric.



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

Currently staying neutral until the end of the week  Smiley

Charts are nice but look at it from mining viewpoint and it is easy to see 15-17k is likely to happen close to the July 15 possible fed rate day.


here goes a s17 set to low power does 42th

42 th is 42 x .0895 = $3.75 earned

burns 34 kwatts so 34 x .08 =  2.72

profit =                  $1.03  for an eight cent farm with paid off s17 so a 1.4 megawatt farm which is still small for a commercial farm
is earning about 1k a day

this is current price of coin and current difficulty. I can tell you most bottoms the 8 cent miner is just under water.

that means 0.0895 per th needs to be 0.0640 cent a th

0.0640/0.0895 x 22000 = 15731 per coin puts the 8 cent miner under water.

I have mined since 2012 and crashes tend to stop at the 8 cent red line price point for miners.

so I stick with 15-17k as bottom.
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June 16, 2022, 04:03:27 PM


Explanation
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June 16, 2022, 04:15:55 PM


Charts are nice but look at it from mining viewpoint and it is easy to see 15-17k is likely to happen close to the July 15 possible fed rate day.


here goes a s17 set to low power does 42th

42 th is 42 x .0895 = $3.75 earned

burns 34 kwatts so 34 x .08 =  2.72

profit =                  $1.03  for an eight cent farm with paid off s17 so a 1.4 megawatt farm which is still small for a commercial farm
is earning about 1k a day

this is current price of coin and current difficulty. I can tell you most bottoms the 8 cent miner is just under water.

that means 0.0895 per th needs to be 0.0640 cent a th

0.0640/0.0895 x 22000 = 15731 per coin puts the 8 cent miner under water.

I have mined since 2012 and crashes tend to stop at the 8 cent red line price point for miners.

so I stick with 15-17k as bottom.

I think this is possible, but on the low side.  I think we have more chance of wicking to 17.5 before running back up to 21k fairly quickly... and this week is a hot time for it to possibly happen.  That would keep the WMA integrity, but really be a good vomity capitulation.

Also it agrees with the fibs drawn from covid low to ATH:


(forgiver linear chart.  Easier to see there...)

And that level is the only place (sadly) south of 20k where there was any volume to be some support... but not even much there... :/
Of course I HOPE we are already bottomed, but it is not LOOKING like it, market activity wise.  I want to get see where the long/short is at, because I do believe if there are a lot of longs then there is some real incentive to get that wick down.
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June 16, 2022, 04:15:55 PM

It's not enough that these Ukrainians take our weapons, they are now taking our wheelie bins also.

Fucking disgrace.

Enough!

Hampshire wheelie bin found 1,200 miles away in war-torn Ukraine
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/hampshire-wheelie-bin-found-1-113819546.html
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