If you can buy at dca do so as long as you can. I am set for 2 or 3 100 usd buys weekly for next 10 weeks.
That's decently aggressive.
Anyone considering themselves to be in a BTC accumulation phase.. a no coiner or a low coiner should be employing at least $100 weekly at these times if they can afford it.. and if you are going 2x to 3x of that amount for the next 10 weeks, that does not seem bad at all.
Jay, thanks for the price history and reflection on various scenarios. Following are a few clarifications of my own. (Please see also note at end.)
[...] BTC at $300 in 2016.... because that price did not exist in 2016...
By the way your reference to BTC prices touching upon $300 in 2016, is both factually inaccurate, but also just a kind of fantasylandia thinking that very many people would be able to buy BTC at a maximum dip price and to be able to lump sum buy into such a fantasy purchase.. It's just not realistic, even though quite a few members like to engage in those kind of fantasies regarding how they would be set if they ONLY were to have bought blah blah blah quantity of BTC at the maximum dippening point.
I do not live in fantasylandia, although I sometimes err due to the lability of human recollection. (On a general note, I have a longtime habit of ignoring the market altogether, unless I am actively buying or budgeting expenditure. I spent most of 2021 ignoring the market; until I reviewed the market in early 2022, I knew less about 2021 Bitcoin prices than most newbies.)
For $300 in 2016, I was thinking of a specific Bitcoin discount sale event that lasted for less than four minutes on one exchange. I have referred a few times to Slaying of the Bearwhale. For those who caught it on Stamp, it was indeed possible to make a large lump-sum buy at what was then about a 7% discount off prices immediately before and after. Wasn’t that in 2016? Or was that 2015? The video has disappeared from where I saved a copy long ago. Unfortunately, I did not save the metadata.
Slaying the bearwhale
happened in early October 2014.... yes 30k BTC were sold at $300 . .and then there was a relatively short recovery where many folks were claiming victory, and then a month or so later, we went back below $300 and stayed below $300 for a year... throughout 2015.
That brings to mind a general point—not aimed at you; just something that irritates me: There is no such thing as a “Bitcoin price”. I think that most WO veterans very well understand that there are only averages of last sales or mid-market quotes from exchanges. Nonetheless, I think it’s important in the long term to educate people about how pricing works. Newbies tend to behave as if there is a Bitcoin retail store with a price on the shelf. And lack of comprehension of pricing lets dollar manipulation distort the markets.
We talk about BTC spot price all the time, and it seems important to have some kind of common reference, especially if trying to communicate with people in regards to how they might be able to figure out how they want to treat their possible accumulation of bitcoin and allocation of bitcoin in relation to their other possible investments.. including how they are going to attempt to reasonably manage their risk.. Allocation of risk,, and deciding various strategies is best founded in concrete considerations rather than some theoretical abstractions that may be true, but are not helpful in terms ofr various priorities that people want to set and attempt to follow in order to attempt to help themselves to get to places that they would like to be both in terms of finances and psychology.- starting from where they are at and what resources they have available.
An anecdote that illustrates the true nature of market pricing:
I sometimes like trading stablecoins against each other as (usually) low-risk trades; and I have sometimes hunted for opportunities in low-liquidity markets. It has happened that when UST was fully pegged, I bought UST for $0.95 and sold UST for $10. The latter happened only once, with a taker that hit only 1 UST from the amount that I had offered at ask price of 10 USDC—but I can brag that I made 10x profit selling $1 for $10! In terms of absolute profit, it was not as good as when some robot dumped $1000 on me for $950; and when I found the right opportunity, I have bought at least ten or twenty thousand dollars for between $0.96 and $0.99 each. At all times I here describe, the major price sites (CoinGecko, CMC, et al.) listed UST as consistently priced in a narrow band around $1; and in any higher-liquidity marketplace, most or all trades executed very close to $1.
So as for pricing.
(Yes, it is ruthless mercenary capitalist trading that you believe I denigrate. No, I do not feel in the least bit bad about having made honest trades at market. Although I did add liquidity to a market that direly needed it, I do not pretend that I was providing some great service to humanity: I was making money by exploiting a zero-sum game in accord with its established rules. Whoever paid me $10 for $1 was at a $9 loss, and their loss was my gain!)
I am having some troubles figuring out how relevant those practices might be in regards to bitcoin-related discussions.. nothing wrong with figuring out various ways that you might be able to make money.. there are a lot of ways to do that.. some better than others, for sure.
especially since you have already shown that you have difficulties maintaining a consistent HODL strategy and/or any kind of meaningful disinclination to gamble with whatever possibly extra BTC that you are able to accumulate -
Something that you missed or misunderstood from my prior posts; my posts have been sometimes voluminous, so I guessed you missed it earlier:
You said somewhere that, in effect, if I put
all of my BTC at risk on margin, it shows I am a gambler.
I did not risk all of my BTC at once.
I started by risking a limited amount, which I could have afforded to lose.
But I cannot stand losing BTC. Thus, at the moment I should have written off my losses, I instead added collateral until I was all-in.
I think I said somewhere that I wound up flailing about like an animal trapped in quicksand.
Whatever you did adds up to the same thing as going all in, if you end up losing most if not all of your BTC.. so I doubt details matter very much in terms of the point that I was making about only gambling with small portions of your BTC holdings.. something like 10%.. or something like that.... which should attempt to account for worse case scenarios.. which does not mean that merely because a worse case scenario develops that now all of a sudden you have ended up increasing your 10% gambling limit to 99.5%
Another detail that I didn’t think was relevant before: Even after I was “all-in”, I was not totally, catastrophically trapped until circumstances beyond my control stopped me from saving several leveraged long altcoin accounts from liquidation. I considered those high-risk, of course; that is why I refused to cross-margin those with my BTC, even though I could have. However, I was (too much) relying on the worst-case ability to salvage some significant equity from those accounts (here speaking of “equity” very strictly as “asset FMV minus debt”). The liquidator bot deleted tens of thousands of dollars worth of my equity. This had a domino effect on my overall position, and raised my risk level from “are you crazy?” to “make peace with whatever gods you may believe in: either you need a miracle, or you need to prepare to face your doom”.
Probably the only material and substantive detail that matters is that you choose to enter into that situation in the first place.. subsequent details likely do not matter.. except maybe if there might have been times/opportunities that you might have been able to extract ur lil selfie from a shitty situation that you should have not entered into in the first place.
There are not very many guys (or gal) in these here parts who have much if any sympathy for margin players.. to the extent that any of us even really understand it sufficiently enough to appreciate that there might be ways that it could be used prudently rather than engaging in degenerate gambling.
What happened to me was significantly more complicated than the scenario of a typical newbie who gets wrecked buying BTC long on margin. But then, I am not a newbie. After making some terrifically stupid mistakes, I had enough skill managing my losses to avoid losing any BTC from January to May. Even after my other assets were gutted, I still managed to hang onto my BTC—clinging to it—despite close shaves where I was almost liquidated. That took some luck—and a lot of effort cleverly juggling what was left of my shrinking assets. If I still got utterly ruined, then newbies have no hope.
I doubt whether you are a newbie or not matters very much.
Sure there might be some educating pieces that may help some members to decide not to get involved in margin trading or that you might provide evidence to make them feel better about their decision not to get involved in margin trading... or maybe you even make some folks feel better about themselves i some ways.. hahahaha ...so sure, there could be some possibilities that you might be providing some kind of potential service here by providing details for what many of us may well have already concluded to be the obvious things not to do or to get involved in.. perhaps? perhaps.. ?
Just for my own attempt at clarifying a few points, I feel that I have pretty conservative ways of considering the valuation of entry-level fuck you status both because it uses the 200-week moving average at an attempt to have a conservative measurement of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility, but also I had injected a kind of expectation that in western countries we need to achieve at least a double valuation of what would have constituted entry-level fuck you status and being a "millionaire" as compared with our understanding of the world and the retention of the value of our fiat money prior to March 2020.
So instead of a kind of symbolic need to acquire at least $1 million in dollar value to get into entry-level fuck you status, after March 2020 it seems to have become somewhat apparent that need to get to $2 million to achieve a kind practical assurance of reaching entry-level fuck you status, and surely right now since BTC prices are largely bouncing around the 200-week moving average, as I type this post, the BTC spot price and entry-level fuck you status valuation prices happen to be largely aligned at the BTC price of $22,300-ish, which also is currently about 89.7 BTC to reach a $2 million valuation.. not an easy task to achieve such, even if acquiring the BTC in 2016.
For a casual buyer, or someone with low income, it may not be an easy task to achieve. Much as at this particular moment, 1 BTC is
not an easy task an impossible task for me to achieve.
I do think that anyone of moderately affluent middle-class/professional-class means who is serious about Bitcoin could have acquired 100 BTC in 2016. That is tantamount to saying that anyone of moderately affluent middle-class/professional-class means could have bought 1 BTC in 2021–2022. If you are in a rich country, and you are at least moderately well-off, then to put less than $50k into BTC means you are not serious about it.
You seem to be making some different points than what I had been making.
Once anyone figures out that they have a goal to acquire BTC, and they figure out their target BTC level (or percentage of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio) that they would like to aim for, then they figure out some strategies to work towards reaching their initial target level, and they might well figure that it is to their advantage to adjust their target and/or their means in striving towards achieving it along the way.
People should be able to figure out these kinds of visionary and application matters tailored to wards their own circumstances, and surely some aspects of considering what to do upon reaching entry-level fuck you status becomes quite a bit more concrete after building for a while to hopefully continue to work on getting closer to that fuck-you status level, if that might be a kind of higher level goal that any of us might have for our lil selfies.
In several senses, we are going to get caught up in working on more immediate goals rather than the further out goals, even though we should be attempting to consider whether carrying out practices to attempt to achieve our more immediate goals has decently good chances of continuing to bring us closer towards reaching our further out goals... and we should be able to create tools to measure progress in these kinds of matters, whether being able to see the progress towards reaching shorter term goals or further out goals.. and we may well see periods of lack of progress or even some effects of mistakes along the way.. which frequently, the mere fact that we made mistakes does not necessarily mean that we should change our strategy in BIGGedly ways.. even though we might well want to learn from our various and likely mistakes (we should be skeptical of anyone who portrays themselves as not making mistakes).. and many times doubling down to try to make up for mistakes is a formula for disaster and degenerate gambling rather than really helping to bring some assurance towards increasing the likelihood of reaching various short/medium/long-term goals that we might outline for ourselves and accounting for our personal circumstances (and need to informedly tweak various aspects along the way, too).
[quote author=death_wish link=topic=178336.msg60372668#msg60372668 date=1655367755
Not that I have anything against someone who DCAs $10/week; and for many people, that is the only way! Please do not misinterpret me as insulting people who have little, and who scrape together holdings sat by sat. It is admirable; and I damn well know what that type of life position is like! But it is irrelevant, in considering someone of at least moderately affluent means who is serious about BTC.
[/quote]
There surely are som advantages in BTC to even be able to buy such small amounts. .if that might be somethin gthat works for someone who is struggling to put together even small amounts , such as $10 per week.
Seriousness has varying levels, of course. Even I wouldn’t do what CZ did when he got started—that was crazy; selling a home to buy BTC is one of the craziest-ever all-in gambles! Though I guess that he has probably achieved “fuck you status” by now.
Yes.. it could be risky to going all in.. and sure someone like CZ was going all into BTC in a variety of ways, especially when creating a business around BTC too (later shitcoins, as well).
For sure, we can make decision regarding how to spend our time and energies including figuring out what stage of life we are at in terms of some of our working skills and if we might be able to get into some BTC-related working activities or maybe earn our money in other ways (maybe we are already heavily invested in a non-BTC career that earns a decent amount of money.. so in some sense we are diversified buy having that non-BTC kind of work.. but then still a question still might continue to linger whether to believe that such non-BTC work serves some individual purposes, and for sure some jobs have vested interests that continue to pay off too especially upon completing certain thresholds of time in service and/or other opportunities that individuals would need to consider for themselves and their own circumstances.
I still had probably enough for Jay to proclaim my “fuck you status” by the end of the decade.
For sure, we have some pretty decent ideas that with the passage of time, it is going to take fewer and fewer BTC to actually reach entry-level fuck you status.
I do believe that at some point, I am going to need to revise some of my projections to make it a wee bit more sloping off rather than constant.., but
at the end of this post that was last edited on December 28, 2021, you can see that I had projected about 0.7 BTC to be sufficient to reach entry-level fuck you status by the end of 2029 - and that presumes at today's dollar prices (so accounting for inflation or purchasing power of today's dollars.. so nominally we might end up getting a bit of a different story by the end of the decade.. fuck? maybe we could be in a very serious implosion of the US Dollar by then.. 7.5 years from now.. can the dollar hang on in any kind of a meaningful credible fashion for another 7.5 years?)..
I had much more than 0.7 BTC. After my first string of BTC losses wiped out
most of my BTC in May, I had a little over 0.5 BTC.
I was
not rich. But from nothing, I had built up to what I would consider sort of the Bitcoiner middle-class.
I suppose that I was just trying to bring some clarification in regards to some of my prior references and attempted methods for attempting to project fuck-you status potentialities into the future.
I am not very comfortable with snap-shot sit on my hands projections for the vast majority of normies who we might consider to be able to continue to work towards building (or maintaining or spending), so it seems that in the vast majority of circumstances there should be some abilities and even desires to do more than just lump-sum-it and forget it for 7.5 years-ish. Yet.. of course, there are some guys who do set their strategies around lump-sum-it and forget it, and sometimes there might some other situation in which lump-sum-it and forget it mighty end up happening such as the man in the coma, or getting put in jail, losing ones wallet and finding it later, lump sum locking away some value for a kid for when they turn 21 or whatever other age that would apply.
By the way, I find a DCA strategy to be less offensive in terms of set it and forget it, but still there may be some justification to look at any DCA set up once a quarter or once a year or so in order to attempt to be somewhat conscious of what is happening with your monies on a regular basis, and whether there might be some need to adjust such DCA amounts, or frequency based on possible changed circumstance or to reflect upon if circumstances have sufficiently changed or not.
I have been crushed down to less than 0.05 BTC. Which is still at risk, if the bottom is not in. This is ridiculous!
I don't know if it is ridiculous, even though I would agree with any kind of assessment that there is a certain amount of frustration that exists when these kinds of extreme DOWNity BTC price moves happen.
In addition to calling the market ridiculous, I also meant that it’s ridiculous for me to have less than 0.05 BTC. Dollhouse-sized holding. A child’s toy. And a farce.
I know that we are humans here (except you are either a dog or a cat), but still, it does not seem to be a good way of dealing with matters to get emotional about them, whether it is the markets or your own situation... yes.. I understand that sometimes things do not go like we would haver preferred.. and in the end, maybe I am just referring to your internet posture and how you are choosing to write about your situation.. because maybe in the end, we do need to cry our asses off and maybe break a few dishes or go chew on our neighbors shoe.. but still.. do we need to say those things?.. I don't know.. whatever.. you do you.
Jay, I intended reply to some of your earlier posts. At this point, I am pretty much just firing at random—in this post, and in what I reply to or what I miss. I will try to get back to your earlier replies sometime (famous last words). Perhaps I was too harsh in some of my earlier replies to you; but I don’t think you were entirely fair to me, either. #nohardfeelings
You might be correct that I was not fair. I think that my last reloading of the software update was a little bit more of a "BIG meanie" version... My handlers were suggesting that overall I had been interacting too nicedly... If I start whining, then they will really start to fuck with me, so I hesitate to tread too much on their zeros and ones tweakenings choices.
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