Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

JUST IN – Russian Central Bank ready to allow use of bitcoin and crypto for international payments 🇷🇺..


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537753567917907969

LOL here we go...

Wednesday  BITCOIN IS ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA
Friday  BITCOIN TO BE USED FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE BY RUSSIA
Tuesday  BITCOIN BANNED BY WESTERN NATIONS
Thursday BITCOIN BEING ACCUMULATED IN DARK POOLS BY WESTERN NATIONS

[1714109941]

1714109941

[1714109941]

1714109941

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

For those who want to smell other people's farts a bit better on a plane this is a great invention.


Double-decker plane seat design ‘comfortable’ but ‘claustrophobic’
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/double-decker-plane-seat-design-120041925.html

[BobLawblaw]

I'm bored. Going to bed early.
Let's see what happens...

Filled @ $20,500 for another 0.012 sats worth.

Found the bottom?

[vapourminer]

but then perhaps at some point, there might be situations in which there is a feeling of having too much BTC, too..

batslap.jpg

tf?

your latest firmware is an abjact failure, tell the devs to get it right with this latest seemingly alpha quality upgrade.

just sayin.. cuz we care about you. #nohomo

[somac.]

I'm bored. Going to bed early.
Let's see what happens...

Filled @ $20,500 for another 0.012 sats worth.

Found the bottom?

That would be nice.

[somac.]

Dick head (Jay Powell) is going to be speaking in a couple minutes. Wonder what fantasy he is going to spout today. I imagine we'll see a reaction in markets, don't know in which direction.

EDIT: he talked a tiny bit about the CBDCs, Fed is definitely pursuing that.

[somac.]

Our governments are all scum

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/julian-assanges-extradition-us-formally-approved-uk-government

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Add another one to the list. There is too much of this crap going on right now for the price to go up.



https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1537774997590134784

[dragonvslinux]

So the SEC decision for a spot ETF seems to be on June 29. (Bitwise) and July 6. (GBTC).

Anyone thinking one of them will get approved?

And how much would BTC go up short term?

Hopefully they will all get rejected due to "volatile market" reasons, otherwise I'd only anticipate further downside with ETFs launching during a bear market. Remember CME/CBOE launch in December 2017? You can see it on the BTC1! chart. It launched at the top of the market and the market was shorted. Then remember when Bakkt futures launched in September 2019, price dumped by 50% afterwards. Possible due to the bearish setup, but still. None of these "financial instruments" are good in the short-term during a downtrend, even if beneficial in the long-run. It will only drag prices further down imo.

I'm just going on previous experiences of Futures/ETP launches, they have all had bearish consequences as investors attempt to short Bitcoin to 0.

Would't a spot ETF only buy and sell real coins?

So for shorting you'd have to own them first.. And for going long you would actually take real coins off the market.

The now approved ETFs short coins that "don't exist" and go long without taking any real coins off the market..

Seems to me a spot ETF would bring some healthy reality back to the market, no?

Not quite. As far as I understand shorting a Bitcoin ETF would involve borrowing coins that you don't have.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/163.asp

An ETF for sure could bring some genuine institutional buying pressure, but could also have the opposite effect short-term. Generally traders will short bear markets and long bull markets, rather than buying dips or trying to sell tops. So for example if an ETF launched today, given current price action, I'd say it'd be very bad. If price were to rebound to $25K, or $30K, then sure it could be good.

But an ETF is a fundamentally different instrument compared to a futures contract.

I'm aware of this, I'm just looking at the previous times major investment instruments were introduced to the Bitcoin market and both times weren't good, even if only for the short-term. I do realise it's subjective though as in 2017 it was after price had gone completely parabolic, and in 2019 it was when price was already overbought and looking like it was going to break bearish.

At least now price has already crashed by 50% in the past few months, as well as down 70% from ATH, it wouldn't be the same shorting opportunity by any means. I just hope that if these ETFs are approved, it's after a signficant rebound, rather than near the lows, so that the best opportunity for these investors would be to the upside as opposed to the downside. I think the timing is more relevant than the product in reality.

[Blue King]

SOUTH AFRICA: 65% of Bitcoin and crypto investors believe it’s the future of finance.

Link: https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537772047916490758

[xhomerx10]

do not click, addictive af.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zci2ilhf4UE

 Not in the morning.  That's like drinking beer before noon; it's just wrong.

[Blue King]

JUST IN – Russian Central Bank ready to allow use of bitcoin and crypto for international payments 🇷🇺..


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537753567917907969

LOL here we go...

Wednesday  BITCOIN IS ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA
Friday  BITCOIN TO BE USED FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE BY RUSSIA
Tuesday  BITCOIN BANNED BY WESTERN NATIONS
Thursday BITCOIN BEING ACCUMULATED IN DARK POOLS BY WESTERN NATIONS

RUSSIA Gazpromneft will use flared gas for Bitcoin mining.

[BitcoinBunny]

Our governments are all scum

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/julian-assanges-extradition-us-formally-approved-uk-government

Also, if you are an American you can come over to the UK, drive on the wrong side of the road, crash into and murder a motorbike rider and fly home no questions asked.

But Russia Russia Russia eh.

[death_wish]

This is actually scary, also it's the first time $BTC will ever go through a recession.
According to some geeks, BTC will act as a hedge but let's see.


https://twitter.com/DrStoxx/status/1537499570212683776

This is classic astrology.  Lines and alignments through the stars—patterns that reveal the fate of man and mankind.

The last time that ascending Mars passed through this constellation, people with (star sign X) got rich, while those with (star sign Y) were lucky in love.  Thus shall it be now.

The low-IQ wannabe who got not-unlucky trading at 3x leverage has never heard the proverb, “Past performance does not predict future results.”  Let alone “past performance of an entirely different asset class, in a different market, in different historical conditions, as an indicator for how that asset class will perform now, so that we can read tea leaves about of how this asset will perform now (hedge/not/etc.)”.

Luser-level TA only works to the extent it does, because it is in some degree a self-fulfilling prophecy.  When enough traders see the same faces in the clouds, they trade accordingly.  Therefore, the market moves in the expected direction.  Unless other factors dominate.  Whoops!

If you want to do quantitative finance, Little Mouse, prepare to download a huge amount of data.  Crunch numbers with fancy equations involving many Greek letters—to develop a probability model, not an arithmetical certainty.  Drawing a human-visible line through a chart is a mildly amusing game for retarded monkeys.

Oh, and surely citations of “Dr. Stoxx” make one an expert on Bitcoin.


Unfortunately, I do suspect that we may be in for a crash hereto unprecedented in Bitcoin.

(Longer discussion split off here—tangential to reply to ImThour.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

It seems that the longer that any of us have been in BTC, then we figure out some systems that kind of work for us to attempt to be able to take advantage of the BIGGER BTC price swings...   buy more frequently or even more quantity when the BTC price is going down.. and don't buy as much when it is going up or maybe even selling some BTC when the price is going up.. but then perhaps at some point, there might be situations in which there is a feeling of having too much BTC, too.. if that is possible...?   perhaps?  perhaps? 

Maybe. But I'm nowhere near "too much" and I think I'm sufficiently non-aggressive at buying to ever get to "too-much"
(again, except for catastrophes). Everyone should do their own math and figure out the balance of comfort and excitement. I'm not trying to take advantage of some specific swing or trend. Questionable risk/reward aside, for me it's just too time-consuming and/or stressful to attempt that.

I have sold small-ish amounts three times in the last 2 years: at ~12, ~37, and ~51 (or 52 or whatever) so not particularly well "timed".  But thanks to the recent dippening, only one of those sales hasn't been bought back yet, and even if it dips below 12 I still won't have "too much" but I will have a lot more BTC than I started with, so my stress-free low-maintenance get-rich-or-bankrupt-slowly "strategy" seems to be working fine.

[dragonvslinux]

For anyone here looking for their Daily dose of hopium, then the 4hr RSI is starting to look interesting with the current bullish divergence, if it plays out. I think we all know by now how oversold the price is on the Weekly (as well as Daily) time-frame, so theoretically it should only be a matter of time before price rebounds (even if only with a dead cat bounce). Naturally, this begins on the lower time-frames (such as 4hr).

Currently this 4hr RSI is again bouncing from oversold conditions with bullish divergence, despite the bearish looking lower lows and horizontal support forming around $20K, equating to a descending triangle bearish setup targeting $18K. However previously when the 4hr RSI recovered from oversold with bullish divergence price went from $27.7K to $32.4K (+16% ish), even though this took almost three weeks.



The hopium here would be if we see similar price action as last month, then we could see a move to around $23.6K in the near future, thus reclaiming the 200WMA @ $22.3K. Unlike last month when the rally was a dead cat bounce into resistance, this would be a rally back above support, into a relatively low volume area. Hence it'd be much easier to retest $28K-$29K breakdown level (previous support) given the volume gap.

As I said, this is more of a hopium theory, given that the $20K support does appear to be weakening on lower time-frames after being tested three times already, and lower lows are forming. This means the support is weakening (the more it gets tested), and the buying pressure is also weakening (as price bounces less far each time). However, the point is imminently breaking $20K is far from guaranteed at present*.

*If the 4hr RSI can avoid falling back into oversold conditions <30, which would more or less be a breakdown below $20K.

[goldkingcoiner]

For those who want to smell other people's farts a bit better on a plane this is a great invention.


Double-decker plane seat design ‘comfortable’ but ‘claustrophobic’
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/double-decker-plane-seat-design-120041925.html

Hmmm... This is dystopian.

But I do hope the seats on top can go all the way down just to add that extra, free-of-charge claustrophobia into the journey.