Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

https://imgur.com/gallery/bqGpIOt

"We" (Royal perhaps?)  do not fuck around with "crypto" in these here parts?


right?


right?




rrrrrrrriiiiiigggggghhhhhhhttttttt?

Wrong, Jay.  I do crypto, first and foremost.

Crypto means cryptography.

If you don’t use PGP for your email, then you do NOT do crypto.

On the one end, Jay, you want to batslap anyone who says “crypto” to steal branding from Bitcoin...

...on the other, I want to batslap anyone who steals the word “crypto”.  I am bloody well sick and tired of ignoramuses speak the word “crypto”, when the only concept they have of “crypto” is chasing get-rich-quick moonshot VC-owned shitcoins staked for “passive income”, or whatever.  I care about crypto!

My crypto has not recently changed in value:  It still encrypts just fine.  My Chacha20 still dances.  My hashes still hash.  My elliptic curves are still elliptically curvy.

Oh, did someone want to talk about cryptocurrency?  That’s just one application of crypto, sort of like the Web is one application of the Internet.

(Does that sound bitter to you, Jay?  Maybe even “smart and bitter”?)

</pedant>

I now await a pedantic correction on how crypto means hidden.  Well, I would be impressed.  I don’t much expect it here.

[1714995808]

1714995808

[1714995808]

1714995808

[JayJuanGee]

So, Jay:  I am a betting man!  I don’t have any money to bet right now; let’s call this a gentleman’s wager.

Do you want to bet with me on whether or not ImThour will quit while he’s ahead?  I think he won’t.  (You can insert your own analogies about drug addicts.)

I could not really have any kind of strong opinion, especially if we are trying to lock people into future behavior.  I have already had several battles with ImThour, and many times they had to do with his making outrageous claims, so I had offered to bet him a few times after he had made some outrageous statement or another.. which would mostly result in silence (or me getting ghosted).

I am really not into betting with anyone in the forum unless they make an outrageous statement and then I will offer to bet to get them to stand behind their statement... so in that regard, so far I have never gotten any takers... except maybe if they try to reframe the bet to something other than the outrageous statement that they had made .. but so far ImThour has not engaged in me in those kinds of discussions.. but he still does make some outrageous statements from time to time..  yet at the same time.. he seems to be getting a bit better too.. so he might be learning.. I cannot really know for sure... because it is a bit outrageous that he believes that he called the BTC spot price hitting the 200 Week moving average.. but whatever. it did likely pay off quite well for him.. so I cannot really hate on matters lke that working out.

Sure, I made some strong statement about you and your seeming gambling tendencies, and I am not even locked into any kind of proclamation that you are doomed forever to be a degen gambler, but you can be kind of stubborn in various regards.. .. and I suppose if we get on some kind of topic that seems bettable, then I would not mind betting.. but we probably would need to put some money at stake.. even if it is just a few hundred or a few thousand satoshis... if the statement from either you or me is really outrageous, then there would likely be odds that we would need to establish.. and we might not even agree on the terms of the bet, even if we might run across some topic that might be bettable.. so I would not mind doing something like that, and it seems to me that you tend to make more outrageous statements more frequently than me... but I cannot recall if any of those statements were really bettable.  One thing that could be bettable would relate to the price or something that is verifiable... but our opinions might not differ sufficiently enough in regards to the price to be bettable, either.

 Now, ImThour has orders of magnitude more BTC than I do.  Life ain’t fair.  C’est la vie !

That's true.  Life can be kind of unfair like that.  We have talked about these kinds of related matters many times before in the thread, so let's say for example a lot of your peers and you can only have about $10 per week to stack sats.. some of them take advantage of stacking sats and others do not.  You may or may not over perform the DCA into BTC technique.... but I have my doubts, especially when we are looking at longer term performance going back 5-8 years or more. I have gotten into a quite a few battles against forum members over the years in regards to whether or not dumb shit they were doing trying to time the market and fucking around with various shitcoins would have been able to beat a DCA into BTC technique.. . whether we are talking about a $10 per week budget or a more aggressive budget of $100 per week or just working with whatever the budget of the other person might happen to be.

Even with you, D_W, if you want to go fuck around with various shitcoins, or trading  or margin and the other non-bitcoinprojects, then go do it, but keep your DCA on the side into bitcoin that maybe you just put aside into cold storage.. and maybe or maybe not you will catchup to some other members (or even your peers or any of your various nemeses that you might have) who currently have a BTC stacking lead on you.

How’s that for a gambling addiction?

No problem, if you are ready, willing and able to carry it out.

Always keeping at least 1 BTC in cold storage is a great idea.

Of course, you gotta get there first, and with our latest BTC price drop in the last 6 weeks or so, 1 BTC may well have become attainable again.. but still it is a bit of a stretch for most newbie normies to have such expectations and to just go from 0 to 1.

Don't get me wrong, when I first came to bitcoin in late 2013, there were still quite a few normies batting around ideas to get three digits.. at least after the crash from $1,1163 down to the mid $200s, through most of 2015, 100 BTC became reachable again, even though in 2015  - a lot of members were still depressed and not really even talking about accumulating BTC.. but just hoping the BTC price goes UP with whatever quantity of BTC that they then had...

but anyhow the main point that I was trying to make is that it was somewhat realistic for newbie normies to create an initial BTC accumulation goals that shoots for 100+ BTC in 2015

But by the time we got into late 2016, the more realistic goal for newbie normies became 21 BTC, then it went down to 10 BTC (around mindrust's active time in this thread) and then 1 or 2 BTC by the time we got to our pre 2020 to 2021 price runs.. so at this time we might be barely getting back down into BTC price territories where for a short period of time initial BTC accumulation goals can reasonably get put back to 1 BTC (while supplies last) - and sure of course, we do not just get from 0 BTC to 1BTC.. so if you are starting from zero.. then maybe your initial BTc  accumulation goal should be to get to 0.1 BTC  then 0.21 BTC and then 0.5 BTC and then after that start working towards 1 BTC..

Sure ..maybe you have some abilities to stack BTC more rapidly.. but even if you get up to 1 BTC, there should be no reason to stop there.. so you just keep adding to it.. and maybe if you get up to 2 BTC or 3 BTC, you might start to tell yourself various quantities of BTC that you will never go below, even if you reach a new thresholds of BTC holdings that you mostly keep in your cold storage.. and if you draw upon them, you do so in a very reserved way because those funds are segregated from your play money and your working money.    

Gawd...AI training facility, formerly known as WO.
Get to the f-n point (in you have one) in a few phrases, please.
Chop-chop.

You sound like my ex-supervisor.

 

Emphasizing ex...




 

On the one end, Jay, you want to batslap anyone who says “crypto” to steal branding from Bitcoin...

Yes!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the invitation...


Batslapping uie-pooie would be a very good start, and emotional relief (an emotional releasening) too..

Oh, did someone want to talk about cryptocurrency?  

No.


fuck that shit.

Let's talk about bitcoin... Have you heard of bitcoin?  It goes by other names as well, such as my lil precious and a few other descriptives.. Shitcoiners, scammers and false equivalency creators use the terms "crypto" but they tend to not specify what the fuck they are talking about .. hopefully you are not inviting those kinds of twats to our otherwise lovely and mostly on topic discussions in these here parts.....and we do not want to be devolving into comparing which shitcoin or which feature happens to be less shitty.. and largely irrelevant distracting and frequently hidden-agenda bullshit like that.

someone batslap that shitcoiner wannabe aka D_W if he wants to talk about which shitcoins happen to be less shitty in their false equivalency implications or other kinds of divergencies to our talking about what crappy food Arriemoller is planning to eat.

(Does that sound bitter to you, Jay?  

kind of.

Maybe even “smart and bitter”?)

To me, it just sounds bitter without the smart part.

I now await a pedantic correction on how crypto means hidden. 

Crypto means.. fuck off with that vague-ass nonsense. Are you talking about king daddy or not?  specify with ur wordiness por favor.  you wordy fuck    

[BlackHatCoiner]

If you don’t use PGP for your email, then you do NOT do crypto.

And if you don't pay your web services, you do NOT do email. Seriously, I had reached you twice, but your email provider kept telling me you've deleted both (?), what happened to you nullius?

Oh, and:

Code:

Encrypted to 0xC2E91CD74A4C57A105F6C21B5A00591B2F307E0C

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

I think she reads the Wall Observer.      

i think so too - and it would be really cool if Lina Seiche would mention our forum in one of her next cartoons

btw another interesting statistic - 21 and 22 can be compared with the years 14/15, when the price also fell by half on that day, followed by very good profitable years

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

Entryway Reality every single time maximum mistake which is done

[ImThour]

This is actually scary, also it's the first time $BTC will ever go through a recession.
According to some geeks, BTC will act as a hedge but let's see.


https://twitter.com/DrStoxx/status/1537499570212683776

[Hamza2424]

This is actually scary, also it's the first time $BTC will ever go through a recession.
According to some geeks, BTC will act as a hedge but let's see.


https://twitter.com/DrStoxx/status/1537499570212683776

That was 2008 and its 2022 i don't think comparison is valid from any angle at that time what was the volume I don't it will be even close to the 10% of today's. Today's market is mature by every mean so this is not valid at all.

Still its crypto I'm not sure about anything like after the Break of 24k I'm expecting anything from this market

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

i don't think comparison is valid from any angle at that time what was the volume I don't it will be even close to the 10% of today's. Today's market is mature by every mean so this is not valid at all.

That's what people told me when I posted 2018 vs 2022 BTC Chart and said we are in similar pattern.
And guess what? It got executed exactly that way.

Thread I am referring to: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5397762.0

TOTAL Crypto Market Cap was at $740 billion in 2018 and $3 Trillion in 2022.
Wasn't it mature too? We are at $880 billion at the moment.

Anything can happen mate.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Next phase

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/06/15/china-giant-sky-eye-telescope-aliens/7632759001/


Chinese researchers found a signal that could be from alien civilizations, the country's science ministry reported.

Researchers with Beijing Normal University this year found “several cases of possible technological traces and extraterrestrial civilizations from outside the earth,” according to a report published Tuesday in Science and Technology Daily, the official newspaper of the Ministry of Science and Technology. The original report, however, appears to have since been deleted from the Science and Technology Daily website, according to Bloomberg.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Next phase

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/06/15/china-giant-sky-eye-telescope-aliens/7632759001/


Chinese researchers found a signal that could be from alien civilizations, the country's science ministry reported.

Researchers with Beijing Normal University this year found “several cases of possible technological traces and extraterrestrial civilizations from outside the earth,” according to a report published Tuesday in Science and Technology Daily, the official newspaper of the Ministry of Science and Technology. The original report, however, appears to have since been deleted from the Science and Technology Daily website, according to Bloomberg.

There was probably a second signal with a message that said "Hey you mofo, don't tell anybody about us or you're toast! We know where you live and what you had for breakfast. Oh and buy Bitcoin. See you later."

[cAPSLOCK]

my lowest buy this dip was at ~24.5k usd. if this is the bottom thats close enough for me. it was a buy i had set up months ago and i actually forgot about it till it triggered.

ive been on cruise control for a long time and dont try to time anything. seems to work well enough.

I am calling it bottom this week 101%. Lowest we can go in 3 days, $18k. That's it imho.
There can be a long ass wick however closing will be pretty much be up 2017 ATH levels.
Long term, very safe bet.

Just to be the contrarian... this is exactly what has happened multiple times with the 200WMA and just about ALL Bitcoinner TA folks are pointing to this as the most concrete indicator we ever use.  Members of this thread (including you) have suggested exactly this would happen since BEFORE the last ATH was reached.

We could expect in a worst case scenario we wick under the line and close the week close to it and start back up from there...

But max pain would come with a different outcome.

I think it is also interesting to think that the whole world is looking at this right now.  I would GUESS that institutional and pro investors are very close to backing up the truck here or already are.  We should see a HUGE bullish defense of ~20k.  But the people who hate bitcoin may also want to try to move the market into territory that would appear very negative.  If you want to kick it while it's down THIS would be the time to send out the FUD (ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA!!!) or try to manipulate again with leveraged positions on retail exchanges.

Bitcoin is no longer magical internet money for geeks.  It is a reliable worldwide reserve asset (in adolescence).

We have been to the 200WMA before... but never exactly like this.  Is it different this time?  I honestly hope not.  I would love to see it do what so many expect.

But so many expect it...

In other words... you seem to be saying:

it could go up, but then it might go sideways or down..

Anything can happen, and especially the thing that you do not expect to happen, but you are not going to know in advance whether the thing that you do not expect to happen happens until after it already happened.

 

If that is how you read it.  But I liked my version better.  Also, I am not really making short term price predictions.  What I am saying is we have not seen the mother of all bull markets yet.  Although we will never see % gains like were realized between 2010-2014 again we WILL see, in the overall scale of things, a massive rise in the price... some day.

Again, I think we will see the bitcoin adoption curve reflected in the price of the asset.  And that that curve will, like most others, have a middle section where adoption is happening the fastest.  I think we might even see an exaggerated adoption curve because of the nature of this technology.

So far one of the most accurate models that can be backfitted to the bitcoin price is a parabolic curved range with a decreasing slope on both the lower and upper bounds.  This makes sense for many reasons.  One of the most obvious is as Bitcoin goes up in value it takes progressively more to raise the price which is slowing both the volatility and price rise of the asset.


(credit @davethewave on twitter)

This model eventually breaks, in my opinion, as the adoption of bitcoin as a reserve asset causes the downward slope to be temporarily overcome.  This has no relevance to the short term price, or if we are near the bottom of a bear market, or what price Bitcoin will be next month.



I think we are somewhere near the blue circle as far as adoption goes...

[vapourminer]

filled with enslaved humans working in Bitcoin mines, digging for blockhashes with their bare hands

WAIT! Is this a thing? Cuz if I can dig and get BTC's... I'm tempted. What's the cost per coin? All sweat equity? Where do I sign?

well i think they more or less use sticks and scratch hash calculations into the dirt but not sure. bitcoin steampunk timeline crossed maybe.

[ImThour]

do not click, addictive af.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zci2ilhf4UE

[cAPSLOCK]

This is actually scary, also it's the first time $BTC will ever go through a recession.
According to some geeks, BTC will act as a hedge but let's see.


https://twitter.com/DrStoxx/status/1537499570212683776

Bitcoin SHOULD act as a hedge because of what it is exactly.

But that requires people to think of it more accurately.  People do not see it as a mathematically perfect asset with an exact known issuance and a hard cap.  It is hard for people to see that because it has never actually existed before.

Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

One other thing.  For better or worse Satoshi invented an asset that has no controllers or mechanisms to damp the value spikes and dips.  When a poorly designed DeFi scam uses bitcoin as it's reserve asset, and eventually goes broke, then they have to sell those bitcoin into the market.  And there is no governance that can add or remove BTC from the system so the shocks are felt as they truly are, rather than having the illusion of stability.

Eventually we will see people start to use Bitcoin as a safe haven... a base asset.  Will that be during THIS crash?  Or the next one in 8-20 years (or whatever... who knows?)?  That, I think, is the tricky bit...

[Khanvila78]

JUST IN – Russian Central Bank ready to allow use of bitcoin and crypto for international payments 🇷🇺..


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537753567917907969