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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1%)
7/28 - 11 (11%)
8/4 - 16 (16%)
8/11 - 7 (7%)
8/18 - 5 (5%)
8/25 - 7 (7%)
After August - 53 (53%)
Total Voters: 100

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26457340 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
death_wish
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Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


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June 17, 2022, 01:55:18 PM
Merited by Dabs (1), Gachapin (1)

This is actually scary, also it's the first time $BTC will ever go through a recession.
According to some geeks, BTC will act as a hedge but let's see.


https://twitter.com/DrStoxx/status/1537499570212683776

This is classic astrology.  Lines and alignments through the stars—patterns that reveal the fate of man and mankind.

The last time that ascending Mars passed through this constellation, people with (star sign X) got rich, while those with (star sign Y) were lucky in love.  Thus shall it be now.

The low-IQ wannabe who got not-unlucky trading at 3x leverage has never heard the proverb, “Past performance does not predict future results.”  Let alone “past performance of an entirely different asset class, in a different market, in different historical conditions, as an indicator for how that asset class will perform now, so that we can read tea leaves about of how this asset will perform now (hedge/not/etc.)”.

Luser-level TA only works to the extent it does, because it is in some degree a self-fulfilling prophecy.  When enough traders see the same faces in the clouds, they trade accordingly.  Therefore, the market moves in the expected direction.  Unless other factors dominate.  Whoops!

If you want to do quantitative finance, Little Mouse, prepare to download a huge amount of data.  Crunch numbers with fancy equations involving many Greek letters—to develop a probability model, not an arithmetical certainty.  Drawing a human-visible line through a chart is a mildly amusing game for retarded monkeys.

Oh, and surely citations of “Dr. Stoxx” make one an expert on Bitcoin. Roll Eyes



Unfortunately, I do suspect that we may be in for a crash hereto unprecedented in Bitcoin.

(Longer discussion split off here—tangential to reply to ImThour.)
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June 17, 2022, 02:01:20 PM


Explanation
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https://bpip.org


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June 17, 2022, 02:08:24 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Dabs (1)

It seems that the longer that any of us have been in BTC, then we figure out some systems that kind of work for us to attempt to be able to take advantage of the BIGGER BTC price swings...   buy more frequently or even more quantity when the BTC price is going down.. and don't buy as much when it is going up or maybe even selling some BTC when the price is going up.. but then perhaps at some point, there might be situations in which there is a feeling of having too much BTC, too.. if that is possible...?   perhaps?  perhaps? 

Maybe. But I'm nowhere near "too much" and I think I'm sufficiently non-aggressive at buying to ever get to "too-much"
(again, except for catastrophes). Everyone should do their own math and figure out the balance of comfort and excitement. I'm not trying to take advantage of some specific swing or trend. Questionable risk/reward aside, for me it's just too time-consuming and/or stressful to attempt that.

I have sold small-ish amounts three times in the last 2 years: at ~12, ~37, and ~51 (or 52 or whatever) so not particularly well "timed".  But thanks to the recent dippening, only one of those sales hasn't been bought back yet, and even if it dips below 12 I still won't have "too much" but I will have a lot more BTC than I started with, so my stress-free low-maintenance get-rich-or-bankrupt-slowly "strategy" seems to be working fine.
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June 17, 2022, 02:14:37 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Dabs (1)

For anyone here looking for their Daily dose of hopium, then the 4hr RSI is starting to look interesting with the current bullish divergence, if it plays out. I think we all know by now how oversold the price is on the Weekly (as well as Daily) time-frame, so theoretically it should only be a matter of time before price rebounds (even if only with a dead cat bounce). Naturally, this begins on the lower time-frames (such as 4hr).

Currently this 4hr RSI is again bouncing from oversold conditions with bullish divergence, despite the bearish looking lower lows and horizontal support forming around $20K, equating to a descending triangle bearish setup targeting $18K. However previously when the 4hr RSI recovered from oversold with bullish divergence price went from $27.7K to $32.4K (+16% ish), even though this took almost three weeks.



The hopium here would be if we see similar price action as last month, then we could see a move to around $23.6K in the near future, thus reclaiming the 200WMA @ $22.3K. Unlike last month when the rally was a dead cat bounce into resistance, this would be a rally back above support, into a relatively low volume area. Hence it'd be much easier to retest $28K-$29K breakdown level (previous support) given the volume gap.

As I said, this is more of a hopium theory, given that the $20K support does appear to be weakening on lower time-frames after being tested three times already, and lower lows are forming. This means the support is weakening (the more it gets tested), and the buying pressure is also weakening (as price bounces less far each time). However, the point is imminently breaking $20K is far from guaranteed at present*.

*If the 4hr RSI can avoid falling back into oversold conditions <30, which would more or less be a breakdown below $20K.
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June 17, 2022, 02:23:23 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

For those who want to smell other people's farts a bit better on a plane this is a great invention.


Double-decker plane seat design ‘comfortable’ but ‘claustrophobic’
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/double-decker-plane-seat-design-120041925.html










Hmmm... This is dystopian.

But I do hope the seats on top can go all the way down just to add that extra, free-of-charge claustrophobia into the journey.
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June 17, 2022, 02:29:03 PM
Merited by suchmoon (1), Dabs (1)

Hmmm... This is dystopian.

But I do hope the seats on top can go all the way down just to add that extra, free-of-charge claustrophobia into the journey.

Just wait until the person on the top bunk spills their drink and you have ice-cold cranapple dripping in your lap/into your macbook.
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June 17, 2022, 02:30:18 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

For those who want to smell other people's farts a bit better on a plane this is a great invention.


Double-decker plane seat design ‘comfortable’ but ‘claustrophobic’
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/double-decker-plane-seat-design-120041925.html










Hmmm... This is dystopian.

But I do hope the seats on top can go all the way down just to add that extra, free-of-charge claustrophobia into the journey.

Might as well give the people on the bottom seats neck braces to cope with injuries during turbulence if you can do that.

Khanvila78
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Bounty campaign manager....


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June 17, 2022, 02:59:53 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)



LOL here we go...

Wednesday  BITCOIN IS ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA
Friday  BITCOIN TO BE USED FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE BY RUSSIA
Tuesday  BITCOIN BANNED BY WESTERN NATIONS
Thursday BITCOIN BEING ACCUMULATED IN DARK POOLS BY WESTERN NATIONS
RUSSIA Gazpromneft will use flared gas for Bitcoin mining.
Gazpromneft, the third-largest oil producer in Russia, is partnering with Swiss-based bitcoin mining company BitRiver to mine bitcoin with excess resources.
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June 17, 2022, 03:01:25 PM


Explanation
death_wish
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Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


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June 17, 2022, 03:46:44 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

One other thing.  For better or worse Satoshi invented an asset that has no controllers or mechanisms to damp the value spikes and dips.  When a poorly designed DeFi scam uses bitcoin as it's reserve asset, and eventually goes broke, then they have to sell those bitcoin into the market.  And there is no governance that can add or remove BTC from the system so the shocks are felt as they truly are, rather than having the illusion of stability.

It sounds like you want an algorithmic central bank that can set monetary policy adapting money-supply to money-demand.

Terra was explicitly advertised as a decentralized “algorithmic central bank”.

Do Kwon is a scammer, a thief, a liar and a swindler.  He proved it beyond a reasonable doubt when, under the rubric of rigged “governance” that showed the true nature of POS, he commanded by central executive order the hardforking of a “decentralized” blockchain to divert value from some people to others.

That does not invalidate the “algorithmic central bank” concept which he abused—not any more than his dishonest and malicious abuse of “blockchain” invalidates the concept of a blockchain.

I have remarked before, perhaps too subtly, to the effect that Do Kwon gave central bankers, USG, et al. the biggest gift for which they could have wished.  Imagine if the basic concepts in Bitcoin had been early associated in the public mind with a giant scam!

We need permissionless innovation, and continuing innovation.  Decentralized, trustless, permissionless algorithmic price stability:  Can it be done?

Before Bitcoin, everyone knew that a practical implementation of a decentralized, trustless, permissionless Byzantine fault-tolerant database was an impossible fantasy.  Just as there are now arguments that a stablecoin cannot exist without a centralized backing as Tether has, a plausible argument could have been made that it is impossible to prevent double-spends securely without a trusted central authority.  Before Bitcoin, that argument would have had most people nodding their heads!  Then, Satoshi invented Bitcoin.  Imagine if the tenor of public discussion had been, “It is impossible—you are not allowed to do that—you are not even allowed to think about it.”

Regardless of whether or not the inventor tried just to do it anyway, Bitcoin would have been killed in its cradle.  Read Satoshi’s old posts, and you will see how sensitive he was to avoid having the project snuffed out early; he even wanted Wikileaks not to take Bitcoin donations when Bitcoin was too young.

I consider the “decentralized price-stability” problem to be ripe for research and experimentation.  Numerous attempts have failed—Terra was only the biggest failure, far from the first—it was not even Do Kwon’s first failure!  Is the problem intractable?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  See the above analogy.  I do not like the Do Kwon stench being smeared over the whole idea.

(For the record, I do not buy the argument that Bitcoin forever solved all possible problems in monetary theory, it is the only form of money that anybody will ever need for all eternity, thus thou shalt not think about innovating even one step further.  I see that as a strawman caricature of a Bitcoiner; I am sensitive to that, since I have received my share of “Bitcoin maxi” insults.  Unfortunately, I do sometimes see some people make exactly that type of an argument.  I think that Bitcoin solved many problems, and systems complementary to Bitcoin could solve more problems; where altcoiners usually fall down is by attempting to compete with Bitcoin using things that can’t compete with Bitcoin.  Bitcoin Envy is a thing.  But by analogy, gold was never actually the only form of money in the world—even when there was essentially a worldwide gold standard.)

When a poorly designed DeFi scam uses bitcoin as it's reserve asset, and eventually goes broke, then they have to sell those bitcoin into the market.

It is a bad look to complain about use of a reserve asset as—an emergency reserve.

Even after I got liquidated and lost most of my BTC due to the LFG dump of BTC, I still did not blame them—until the point that evidence emerged to indicate:  It seems that they used the BTC to give insider whales a golden parachute while Do Kwon was still promising a re-peg, then let smallholders with their life savings in UST take the plunge.  Proof of malice is that a few days after Do Kwon publicly promised a re-peg, he announced his intent and his initial plan to hardfork the Terra blockchain to abandon the peg (among other badness).

If LFG only dumped the BTC to provide early exit liquidity so that insider whales could get out with their dollars (and I say this on the basis of high probability; I have not yet even tried to pass final judgment over the tangle of conflicting claims), then they weren’t even trying to use Bitcoin as a reserve asset backstopping a currency peg!  They just trashed the Bitcoin market (and caused liquidation of most of my BTC) as a means of worse scamming both UST bagholders, and LUNA bagholders whose investment was only valuable due to the peg.  Such things cannot be prevented in a permissionless system—but it’s a crime, like stealing BTC is a crime even though Bitcoin purposely has no way to grab back stolen coins.

However, taking what you said within its four corners:  If BTC cannot be sold as a reserve asset when needed, on-demand, then we need to tell people to stop buying BTC as a reserve asset.  What if El Salvador has a national crisis, and they need to lean heavily on their reserves?  Are they allowed to sell?  If a country falls back on its gold reserves when it needs to, goldbugs don’t complain about that.

I want the world to embrace Bitcoin as a credible, reliable reserve asset.  A friend of mine who hates Terra with fire thinks that Terra was attacked only as a strategic manoeuvre to attack the whole concept of using BTC as a reserve.  I wouldn’t go that far, but I actually do think that was one of several major motives.

Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

Filed under, “Teach people that Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.”  It is a very large file.
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June 17, 2022, 04:01:18 PM


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June 17, 2022, 04:15:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Dabs (1)

Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

Filed under, “Teach people that Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.”  It is a very large file.

Its no secret that bitcoin has been tracking the stock market latelty and becoming more and more intertwined with political and macroeconomic factors,So it may actually be beneficial to treat it as a "stock" as this will allow for better models and price predictions.


On another note: how long do yall  think we can hold this 20k support,and is there any major support under it incase we break it ?
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June 17, 2022, 04:17:07 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

Filed under, “Teach people that Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.”  It is a very large file.

Its no secret that bitcoin has been tracking the stock market latelty and becoming more and more intertwined with political and macroeconomic factors,So it may actually be beneficial to treat it as a "stock" as this will allow for better models and price predictions.


On another note: how long do yall  think we can hold this 20k support,and is there any major support under it incase we break it ?

Miner support at 15-17k ranges
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June 17, 2022, 04:49:42 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

Hmmm... This is dystopian.

But I do hope the seats on top can go all the way down just to add that extra, free-of-charge claustrophobia into the journey.

Just wait until the person on the top bunk spills their drink and you have ice-cold cranapple dripping in your lap/into your macbook.

Or the fat lady at the window seat needs to get up to go pee.
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June 17, 2022, 04:56:58 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

I think this illustrates the risk of de-prioritizing the money aspect of Bitcoin. Because there is no ecosystem for buying and selling goods and services, when things get fucky, it becomes a rush for the exit.
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June 17, 2022, 05:00:17 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

Next phase

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/06/15/china-giant-sky-eye-telescope-aliens/7632759001/


Chinese researchers found a signal that could be from alien civilizations, the country's science ministry reported.

Researchers with Beijing Normal University this year found “several cases of possible technological traces and extraterrestrial civilizations from outside the earth,” according to a report published Tuesday in Science and Technology Daily, the official newspaper of the Ministry of Science and Technology. The original report, however, appears to have since been deleted from the Science and Technology Daily website, according to Bloomberg.

I remember this happening before and it turned out to be a very old signal that was reflected back to us.

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June 17, 2022, 05:03:26 PM


Explanation
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June 17, 2022, 05:04:05 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60370940#msg60370940
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June 17, 2022, 05:09:49 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

https://youtu.be/Jyd19Nq6Bk0
This Video suggest that we're likely Bottoming out base on the behavior of past bear market cycles and
this Bitcoin Enthusiast aren't joking he's selling all his expensive properties Car, Watch and other things to buy Bitcoin.
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June 17, 2022, 05:13:41 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), Dabs (1), modrobert (1)

We've seen it in the past (e.g. ICOs, DAO, Bitconnect, De-Fi, Block-Fi, Luna/TerraUST, etc.) and we're going to continue to see it in the future.

Before the insider whales run up the market, they've already got their market "rug pulls" set up ahead of time.

The problem is that there is nothing that can stop them from doing it over and over again every 3-4 years.  Every entity that buys huge amounts of btc on leverage and doesn't have a plan to NOT be margin call liquidated during a downturn is a liability to the market, not an asset.

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