Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

After winter always comes Spring.

but what comes after a crypto Ice Age?

Bitcoin’s energy use causes global warming.  /s (A warning only necessary because “welcome to the Internet”.)

[OutOfMemory]

As I catch up with the WO thread, I just have to shake my head in disgust at all the pusillanimity.

You dudes need to punch yourselves in the nuts WAY more often.

On the other hand, somewhere on this stupid space rock (c) family homes get shelled nonstop, people are starving or run from bullets every day, while CT is crying it's fate in mass-hysterical manner using capital letters out to the world  
It seems to me that WO is still comparatively brave, and yes, i am aware that WO is a bunch of hodlers, while CT is mainly hordes of shitcoiners leverage-longing every dip in this bear market correction, just because some follower-rich moron called it out.
If one survived 2018/19 (sorry mindrust), then 2022 should be no more than meh to him/her.
That's why i suggest four self-slaps on the back of the head, in sync to spelling "HODL"  

[Majormax]

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.

+1 to that. But to be fair it is a weekend. Which is why they dumped in the first place.

We were already in a channel more or less under 200 WMA, between about that and ~10% below.  IMO, it had been doing that for long enough to be teetering on borderline breakage.  I had been hoping for a scenario like August–September 2015—scraping along just below/just above for a month, then recovering.  At this point, since we crashed even below the previous cycle top (even in nominal dollars, never mind real value!), I think that 200 WMA is quite dead.  Not “Bitcoin is dead”:  Excessive reliance on a technical indicator is dead.

Gold had a two-decade extreme bear market.  Anyone who bought gold at the wrong time had to wait an awful lot longer than four years to be not underwater.  I also think that was a politically motivated economic attack, though I don’t want to get into off-topic discussion here that will derail into other matters.  (I have mentioned this in some prior post, a few weeks ago...  Something about gold-producing countries under international sanctions.)

Only fools declared gold dead.  Smart people bought gold as low as ~$260, not so very long ago.

If we can escape from erroneous thinking about Bitcoin as “like a stock”, and really start treating it as digital gold, then there is ample precedent for shrugging off much worse crashes and bear markets than I now anticipate.  As bad as this one is.  Even if we are still nowhere near the bottom—maybe; maybe not; I am realistically pessimistic, but not prepared to make a call either way.

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 WMA is what scares the shit out of me.

Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology.

FTFY.  As an inveterate pedant, I could not resist.

The previous cycle high was the *last* piece of TA that BTC chart had not violated previously. ... It was an almost religious symbol to some ppl.

Now that violation has happened, individuals have to make their decision... either say:

1. ' this indicates some serious imminent unknown, so BTC is broken in some way'

or  2. ' No form of TA applies anymore, so HODL as an act of pure faith'

Gold historical comparison is a helpful justification for (2), which is probably the line most WO posters would take.

[vapourminer]

The previous cycle high was the *last* piece of TA that BTC chart had not violated previously. ... It was an almost religious symbol to some ppl.

Now that violation has happened, individuals have to make their decision... either say:

1. ' this indicates some serious imminent unknown, so BTC is broken in some way'

or  2. ' No form of TA applies anymore, so HODL as an act of pure faith'

yup. glorious isnt it! 

havent felt like this since 2011 when i started

what a time to be alive

[ImThour]

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 WMA is what scares the shit out of me.

Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology.

FTFY.  As an inveterate pedant, I could not resist.

Not sure what you fixed in that but WMA means Weekly Moving Average and that's exactly what I meant.

[death_wish]

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 WMA is what scares the shit out of me.

Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology.

FTFY.  As an inveterate pedant, I could not resist.

Not sure what you fixed in that but WMA means Weekly Moving Average and that's exactly what I meant.

I added the “W”.  You said “200 MA”.  It is a common mistake for newbies who don’t know the technical jargon.

Edited to add:  It is the 200-week moving average, not a weekly moving average if calculated on daily prices as it apparently is on most sites discussing the 200 WMA for Bitcoin.  That is an important distinction, but to elaborate here is otiose.

[death_wish]

The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies.

Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K  

That’s just being blindly contrarian.  Also, you are leaving out a few crucial steps.  Pointed omissions.

After $30k broke, many people thought that $25k would hold.  After that broke, most people took the 200 WMA line as an article of faith.  Why did you omit that?

After Bitcoin broke 200 WMA and the 2017 cycle top (even in nominal dollar terms, not adjusted for inflation!), then the people who thought $30k would hold are talking about $15k, or even below.

For my part, this does not make me pessimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future.  See my comparison to the history of the gold market.  I see Bitcoin as digital gold.  Even gold can suffer an extreme, extended bear market much worse than I expect here; so, too, could Bitcoin.  It is realistic to acknowledge that as a possibility, and not improbable as things now stand.

I do think we can declare TA dead.  Declare 200 WMA dead as a reliable Bitcoin Bottom.  We have gone into a deep crash below 200 WMA for longer than prior precedents, such as the March 2020 flash-crash caused by Covid panic; and we have too low for too long to compare prior precedents for hovering just under/around 200 WMA (August/September 2015, or the days following the Covid panic crash).

That’s better for Bitcoin, in the long run.  Let’s stop with the juju, and refocus on long-term value fundamentals.

The bottom could already be in, now.  Or not.  I don’t care:  Either way, I believe in Bitcoin for the long term.  And I do know that Hopium is a dangerous drug.  Nothing hurts like false hope!

Called it:

A. Bull traps.  Destroying long-term confidence in BTC needs not one big crash, but a series of fake recoveries followed by worse crashes, false hopes, broken dreams.  This is psychological warfare as much as economic warfare.  We now have memes about "Slaying of a Bearwhale", Honey Badger - a common belief that BTC always recovers and goes up.  Evil Hat wants to replace that with a popular belief that "what goes up, must come down".

Evil Hat(TM) wants to break all long-term uppitiness in Bitcoin, shatter all long-term trends, smash the 200 WMA line.  Ultimately, it wants to throw BTC into a death-spiral that only bottoms out when 10k BTC buys 2 pizzas again.

This cannot be done with one simple crash.  [...]

Maybe we will now turn around.  Maybe.  Maybe not.

I want to get out in front of any further potential crashes, expect the unexpected, and deprive the bears who hate Bitcoin of any more chances for “I told you so.”  OK, they were right that we broke 200 WMA and the 2017 cycle top.  So what?  If it goes to $15k, or $10k, or whatever, I still expect someday to see my million-dollar Bitcoins.  It may take longer than I previously expected; but I don’t care, because I already said that I am in it for the long term.  My expectation is based on long-term value fundamentals, not on lines on a chart.

If the bottom is already in, take it as a bonus.

If not, then holding BTC now is like holding gold when it crashed spectacularly a few decades.  So what?

It’s gold.  Buy and hold.

[death_wish]

Hello, $20k.

Yes, I will make about 20 posts in a row if it starts making new milestones like that.

Edit:  Damn it, Buddy.  The oracle price is just over $20k where I sit ($20,063).  Went as low as about $20,275 before it started to fall back...  Now $19,977 here.  Sigh, edit, edit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[o_e_l_e_o]

Throwback to the last time we hit $20k.

Last time had much better memes.

[Wilhelm]

Aaaanddd it's gone 

[OgNasty]

Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

[Wilhelm]

Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

I heard Celsius is talking to banks and can probably defend their position now.
Liquidated positions for BTC and ETH are steadily dropping so everything is calming down.

[Richy_T]

Edit:  Damn it, Buddy.  The oracle price is just over $20k where I sit ($20,063).  Went as low as about $20,275 before it started to fall back...  Now $19,977 here.  Sigh, edit, edit.

CB only gives the spread at the last book retrieval. I've considered adding some more info in there too but haven't had the time recently to really think about options.

[death_wish]

When gold prices (in dollars) soared from 70s stagflation, then crashed, was it smart to sell the top?  OK, how do you know what the top is?

In gold’s extreme, extended bear market, after it started crashing, was it smart to sell at $800?  $700?  $600?  Selling for $600 and later re-buying for $300, you could have doubled your gold holding.

...$500?  $300?  $260?  Whoops!  Selling for ~$260 (IIRC^*) would have been mindrusting gold.

Holding gold is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less gold than you have already accumulated.

Holding BTC is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less BTC than you have right now.

^*  Numbers here are tossed off the top of my head to make a point.  If someone corrects any errors as Jay corrected my recollection of when Slaying the Bearwhale occurred, then... eh.  Here, at least, it will not change my point.

So you are saying investors should only accumulate gold or BTC to increase their portfolio? If you do not extract some profits from your gains and reinvest them in that same assets or something else then you are not an investor. You are more like a collector. Professional investors always circulate their money in the different asset classes. If you do not know what the bottom or upper limits are then follow the market sentiments.

If you think of yourself as an investor you must keep track of the market about what's going on. Many people think a bear market is a downside of our economy but wise investors knows this is their opportunity. You can get things with a high discount price in a bear market so buy when everyone is selling and start selling when everyone is buying. This is that simple if you do not know about price actions charts or fundamental analysis.

Semantic game, No True Scotsman, and an absurdity:  What you mean is that I am not a trader.  You are repudiating the whole concept of “buy and hold”.  (Also, you implicitly figure PnL in dollars—not in real money, i.e. BTC.  For my part, I sometimes spend BTC on investments to make more BTC.  Figuring PnL in a depreciating, perpetually devaluing currency is extremely stupid.)

You say “collector” as if there were something wrong with that.  It is funny, because I have called myself a “collector” in my own thoughts about investment strategies.  My explicit goal is to collect and to accumulate valuable things, and to keep them.

In stocks, would you call Warren Buffet “not an investor”?  Buffet is a damnfool about Bitcoin; he should stick to what he knows, and he does know stocks!  He is the most famous (and only most famous) investor who takes the extreme buy-and-hold approach to stocks.

I call the extreme buy-and-hold approach to investing:  If you buy something good, the best time to sell is never.  Selling is an admission that you made a bad call when you bought—either you bought too much of something that’s not good enough (so, reduce your exposure to it), or you bought something bad (get out! run away!).  It happens.  Nobody makes the right call on 100% of investment decisions.

Of course, it is not the only good approach.  But in my opinion, it is the only good approach that >99% of people can achieve.

For an examine of polar extremes (not to exclude the middle), see also:

The buy-and-hold strategy does not give a free lunch:  HODLers pay every day for their future wealth, in the time value of money.  HODL incurs opportunity costs.  HODL also embraces long-term fundamental risks; long-term risks are the cost of easily avoiding short-term risks on the irrationality of the markets.

[...]
This also relates to my thoughts on money at rest versus money in motion.

[...]

One way trades the time value of money for the safety of money at rest, and avoids short-term risks by depending on long-term fundamentals.  It requires the ability to buy BTC, and to avoid panic-selling.

The other way relies on keeping money in motion.  The requirements list is much higher.  The risks of failing to meet those requirements are extreme.

Take your pick!

For the record, for anyone interested in the postmortem of how I wrecked my own finances:  A major motive for me my fatal experiments with debt—a position that I explicitly called “shorting the dollar” at the time—was my desire to never sell anything, ever, except dollars which I love to sell.  Top priority:  Never spend BTC.  Lower priority:  Accumulate a basket of alts, without the ongoing necessity of trading back to BTC to take profits.  Collect more of everything—more, more, more of everything!—and use it all as the basis for (strategy not for public discussion) to generate dollar income paying down dollar debt as it depreciates.

“Buy appreciating assets with depreciating debt” is an excellent theory, which proved catastrophic in practice.  It would work, if I had (a) orders of magnitude higher capitalization to begin with, and (b) access to lending terms that are not insane for long-term debt.  Otherwise stated:  It would work, if I were Michael Saylor!  I am not Michael Saylor.  By crudely pretending that I was Saylor buying BTC with debt, I ruined myself financially.  Playing a children’s game of make-believe-I’m-Saylor with a cryptocurrency margin account is what got me dollhouse-sized finances.  Newbies, take heed:  You are also not Michael Saylor.

[Krubster]

I recommend putting a few coins on a lightning node and then throwing the SSD into a volcano.  That's what I did, and it puts things in perspective.

Yeah bro. Was very sad to learn about that.

So, total loss for that one node confirmed, or did it end up recovering after all?

Actually.. I am well on the way to recovering it all  (hope I did not just jinx it).  The CL node (jeed) was able to be restored from a backup created by the backup plugin right before the SSD went south.   Even our channel is back up and connected.

The LND node (deej) is still in limbo.  So I am using the seed+SCB restoration method.  What that does is scans through the whole blockchain from the birthday of the node (11/19) and that is taking forever.  But all the transactions are trickling in.  Once that is done the Static Channel Backup file is loaded and all the channels are just closed.

So the sad part is my older BOS ranked node is badly wounded.  BUT I am hopefull I will gather up all the funds on chain sometime today.

The question is... do I want to set channels back up on that thing?  Or throw the rPi into the volcano after moving all the corn back to cold storage.

For some reason (insanity?) a am considering  setting up a set of fewer but larger channels on the node and keeping it going...  

My version of titanium plates, I suppose.

I'm sorry to hear that. That explains why our channel force-closed. All your funds should be safe though. I suspect all your channels will get force-closed once the blockchain sync though.

Speaking of Lightning. I have invested in new hardware to start a new node. It's a NUC with Ryzen 5, 16 GB RAM and 1TB NVMe SSD. This time I'm running the node on Ubuntu 22.04 and Citadel.

The new node is actually up and running, but I'm waiting to close the channels and move the funds from my old node until I have physical access to it. It still needs some tinkering before I'm ready to make the move.

So far I have set up a hybrid mode, making my node accessible over both Tor and Clearnet. I've set up a VPN tunnel on a VPS, forwarding the lightning traffic to my node over Clearnet without revealing my IP. This guide was a lot of help doing so (I skipped the LNbits part).

It will be interesting to see if this new node will perform better than my old one, running over Clearnet.

@BobLawblaw, @cAPSLOCK, I will close our channel in the upcoming days, but I will open a new channel between us once I'm ready to make the move to the new node.

[death_wish]

Edit:  Damn it, Buddy.  The oracle price is just over $20k where I sit ($20,063).  Went as low as about $20,275 before it started to fall back...  Now $19,977 here.  Sigh, edit, edit.

CB only gives the spread at the last book retrieval. I've considered adding some more info in there too but haven't had the time recently to really think about options.

My primary desktop ticker is an oracle based on an average of two different price oracles.  The primary underlying oracle is, in turn, based on data feeds of Bitcoin pricing data from multiple price data publishers.  The underlying data is pretty sophisticated, and includes confidence intervals—very important, those confidence intervals!

I also have a CoinGecko ticker.  But by comparison, it is crude and very slow to update.  My primary ticker sometimes updates several times per second.

(Not naming names because this is all somewhere in altcoinland, in an environment I do not much trust.  Ping me if curious.  The primary oracle caused a cascade of wrongful liquidations by mispricing BTC at $5k in September 2021, due to a coincidence of simultaneous “errors” from two different price feed publishers who, due to “software bugs”, priced Bitcoin at exactly zero.  Zeroes severely drag down an average!  FWIW.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Edit:  Damn it, Buddy.  The oracle price is just over $20k where I sit ($20,063).  Went as low as about $20,275 before it started to fall back...  Now $19,977 here.  Sigh, edit, edit.

CB only gives the spread at the last book retrieval. I've considered adding some more info in there too but haven't had the time recently to really think about options.

About CB, I only yesterday saw the avatar when reading the WO on a cumputer I wasn't logged in to (I have it on ignore), and I litterally LOLed, well done!