Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Issa gunna be an interesting week.... when the week actually starts ....... ie tomorrow (yes the whole world revolves around murica)

You know.  What happens Monday Tuesday (shut up and celebrate the Galveston freedmen) goes much deeper than the good old U S of A. 

But there is no doubt the powers that actually be have plans for tomorrow... yes they do.

[1714194189]

1714194189

[cAPSLOCK]

You are not completely on the wrong track, even though some of these inferences about correlation are bullshit.

In other words, surely we may well have some short-term correlation between bitcoin and various  mature asset classes.. and why did you not include the NASDAQ in there .. mainstream pundits love to talk about bitcoin's supposed correlation with the NASDAQ.. but sometimes the magnitude is just way different in one direction or another .. even though they are moving in the same direction at the same time... and such magnitude differences should provide some hints and a decent amount of consideration that some care has to be taken in terms of expecting that bitcoin respond in the same way as various mainstream mature assets or even to consider some temporary divergences that end up making BIG ASS differences in terms of "you should have been HODLing bitcoin you dumb fuck" kinds of happenings (not talking about you specifically, Biodom - even though sometimes you deserve to be included in such.. you fuck... (said with a large amount of affection).. hahahaha)




On a slightly different topic.  I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..

Regarding my own personal leverage:  I have posted quite a few times in this thread and in other places on the forum about the value of leveraging in order to frontload your BTC investment when you are not sure about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and you believe that your cashflow is not coming in fast enough for you to be able to sufficiently advantage from such potential UPpity BTC price moves that might happen but are not guaranteed, and also I have never shied away from assertions that anyone employing these kinds of leveraging tactics are responsible to make sure that they are able to service their loans (leverage) under negative BTC price scenarios (or other unexpected negative events that might happen) and even possible extreme negative scenarios.. .. which surely these events can be considered as leveraging of future incoming cashflows and those future incoming cashflows could dry up or shrink, so in that sense, there should be back up cashflow or sources of funds, too in order to service such loans in even worse case scenarios..

Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC  price bottom, I am also not going to apologize for my maintaining a position that the use of leverage can be a very valuable practice if used with a decent amount  of prudence and weighing of the various expected values and balancing those scenarios  in order to prepare for lower probability scenarios coming true in contrast to the higher probability scenarios contained in your various calculations that happen at the time of contemplating whether or not to use leverage.. and if so, how much.

From my own personal perspective, I have used leverage a lot of times in life, and may well have not gotten into decently high levels of positive networth without the employment of various kinds of financial leverage that I had at my disposal over the years... and even in recent times, I have used leverage also.. yet even with my most recent leveraging of bitcoin/cash and various values related to cashflow and other assets that I have in order to attempt to front load more extensively on the potentiality of Bitcoin UPpity.. my total leverage amounts were likely less than 0.25% of my total BTC value.. and even after BTC prices dropped 50% or even our current max bottom of 75%, I am still under 1% leverage in those various standing and ongoing debts that I had decided to employ and I am still servicing and the employment of those debts surely did not end up paying off as of to date because the bitcoin price failed to go up, did not even go sideways as a second best scenario.. did not do a mediocre or reasonably aggressive correction but instead went balls to the wall into extreme beyond even more extreme expectations of a correction..

So yeah, it sucks that it would have been better to have had not employed such leverage, and a main solice may well be that the amount of the leverage in terms of the portfolio value is not really very high.. .. and some might proclaim, why even employ such low level of leverage in the first place.. that would have been less than 0.5%.. how the fuck you going to profit when you are employing such low leverage, and I do believe that there is still potential to profit from those kinds of plays.. especially since I have profited a lot in the past from doing it.. and surely sometimes it would have payed off way better to employ higher percentages of leverage, so to some extent there is some luck involved in terms of ONOY having had employed less than 0.5% leverage, because I would not have been opposed to something like 5%-ish leverage if some decently correct circumstances might have presented themselves to me.. I would have had some difficulties going very much higher than those amounts.. but again, for me it depends on the deal.. and surely some products that are merely earning high interest without much if any logical or convincing explanation of whey would not be the kinds of opportunities that I would have considered as good leveraging opportunities.... so in that regard, there may well be some luck since entering those kinds of deals partially depend upon when, too.. and maybe the amount that ends up getting deployed for such will also be affected by details of the deal.

Great Shub-Niggurath the almighty old one...

How many keyboards do you buy in a month?  And here I thought *I* was loquacious.

[death_wish]

...ok ok, lil bit of a circle shill here

Why?

I essentially see Circle as a tentacle of USG.

I have been actively (attempting to) boycott Circle ever since they supported S2X.  I will never forget S2X, never forgive S2Xers.  No mercy.

I am proud to report that after my get-out-of-debt moment, I currently hold about $0.28 USDT, and zero USDC.  I actively prefer USDT to USDC because—not Circle!

You know something I don’t?

(Have not watched video.  Prefer text.  Will try to give this video a look soon.)

Issa gunna be an interesting week.... when the week actually starts ....... ie tomorrow (yes the whole world revolves around murica)

You know.  What happens Monday Tuesday (shut up and celebrate the Galveston freedmen) goes much deeper than the good old U S of A.  

But there is no doubt the powers that actually be have plans for tomorrow... yes they do.

Wha?  Is 19 June a holiday in the United States?  I was unaware.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Wha?  Is 19 June a holiday in the United States?  I was unaware.

The United States appropriated it from Texas.

[empowering]

...ok ok, lil bit of a circle shill here

Why?

I essentially see Circle as a tentacle of USG.

I have been actively (attempting to) boycott Circle ever since they supported S2X.  I will never forget S2X, never forgive S2Xers.  No mercy.

I am proud to report that after my get-out-of-debt moment, I currently hold about $0.28 USDT, and zero USDC.  I actively prefer USDT to USDC because—not Circle!

You know something I don’t?

(Have not watched video.  Prefer text.  Will try to give this video a look soon.)

I meant a shill from Kevin O'Leary not me.

though their apparent treasury size is  

Issa gunna be an interesting week.... when the week actually starts ....... ie tomorrow (yes the whole world revolves around murica)

You know.  What happens Monday Tuesday (shut up and celebrate the Galveston freedmen) goes much deeper than the good old U S of A.  

But there is no doubt the powers that actually be have plans for tomorrow... yes they do.

Wha?  Is 19 June a holiday in the United States?  I was unaware.

yes it is

[death_wish]

Explanation

Wait for it, we're gonna bounce any minute now. It's gonna be strong. A real trend reversal. Bullish phase incoming.

OK, now I'm getting scared.
For the first time in many many months price goes below my DCA and the local Llama spots out this???
Is this what they were talking about as "Max Pain?"

I doubt that we are even close to max pain...

bears are going to push the BTC price down as low as they can and hold it there as long as they can.

Good call, Jay.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Gold is just bitcoin that can’t be sent over the internet.

On a slightly different topic.  I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots (not going to name any names, here)... .. fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..

[...] Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC  price bottom, [...]

IMO, from here forward, continual reliance on 200 WMA is embarrassing.  200 WMA is dead as a Bitcoin Bottom.  Failure to acknowledge this reeks of “Reality Distortion Field”—a public relations problem that is particularly acute, when the public is already primed with many years of “Bitcoin is a cult” propaganda.

Please reread my post about gold.  You entirely missed the point.  I was not talking about gold, in itself:  I was providing an analogy to digital gold, i.e. Bitcoin.

Gold buyers don’t say such things to themselves as, “This astrological line on a chart is our bottom, because past performance predicts future results.”

If a statistical line representing historical prices is crossed, die-hard goldbugs do not suddenly buckle at the knees and cry, “I can’t believe it!  We shouldn’t be here!”

As I now write, we are about 10% below 200 WMA.  We recently went much further below.  We have been below it for too long, and gone too deep below it for too long, to pretend that this it was even approximately the bottom (as it was in all previous crashes).

Clinging to 200 WMA as having some special significance is now Considered Harmful(TM).

Let’s focus on the fundamentals.  Not on TA lines.  Gold buyers who bought gold around $260 about two decades ago were buying because, um, it’s gold.  Of course, it is valuable!  And Bitcoin?

Regarding my own personal leverage:

You are obviously a sophisticated investor with decades of experience.

Please just help me remind people who think they are “sophisticated” to remember that:

• As I recently mentioned somewhere, it has happened that a pricing oracle mispriced BTC at $5402 due to alleged “software errors” when BTC was trading around $43,500.  No actual BTC was traded at $5402, but people were liquidated based on a BTC price of $5402.  (Correction of what I said before:  The “erroneous” publishers published negligible BTC prices, not “absolutely zero” BTC prices; the effect on the average was the same.)
• In October 2021, BTC actually flash-crashed to $8k on Binance.  Only for about 40 seconds—but, well, someone please tell me, is Binance’s liquidator any more forgiving than others of brief dips?
• Unlike a traditional margin call, cryptocurrency exchange liquidation generally requires only a dip one microdollar below your liquidation price for one microsecond.
  

  The whole cryptocurrency margin ecosystem has the incentives of loan-sharking.  Those incentives are exploited in full accord with the ethics of people who also profit from pump-and-dump Ponzi-coins.
  
  You need to be either stupid or crazy to take a loan on these terms, for almost any purpose.  To avoid accusations of deficient IQ tantamount to mental retardation, I plead a bout of temporary insanity.  Do I know better than to do this?  Yes, I do.  Why did I do it - why, why, why!?
  

• Leverage is a curve, not linear.  (That’s also why it’s so profitable, if you avoid getting rekt!)  Thus, if BTC is priced at $5k, your 0.5% leverage will suddenly skyrocket much higher than a newbie would expect.  Mentioned for the sake of any newbies reading this—not to insult your intelligence or experience.
• I myself started out with low leverage—not as low as yours, but pretty damn low.  I also started with a definite strategy to deleverage and exit, and sufficient assets to do so if necessary.  Part of my problem is that I did not obey my own plans—but only part.  Anyway, what was that about the best-laid plans of mice and men?
  

  But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
  In proving foresight may be vain:
  The best laid schemes o' mice an’ men
  Gang aft agley,
  An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain
  For promis’d joy.

For these reasons, I have positively decided that if I ever use leverage or BTC-backed debt again, it will be either:

• With a pro-grade robot.  A robot can react faster than any human.  That does not protect against buggy oracles or near-instantaneous flash-crashes, but it does cover almost any other scenario.
• For extremely short-term loans.  For example, I currently have some assets locked in stake which I cannot release without ETH gas I cannot afford.  (Yes, I wanted to grab some ETH at $900 recently for this.  No money!)  When the time comes that I decide to unlock it, I may borrow against my itty-bitty BTC to buy ETH (or even just borrow ETH), unlock shitcoins from stake contracts, sell some shitcoins to cover the loan immediately so that I can immediately withdraw my BTC, and then sell some more shitcoins to buy more BTC.  It should all be over in minutes.  To get rekt that way, I would need bad luck tantamount to winning a negative lottery.  [Edit:  Bad example.  Duh.  The contract requires 7 days to unlock, during which time the money is untouchable—and its volatile value at the end is unpredictable at the beginning.  That is why I didn’t, couldn’t use this money to save my BTC.  Thanks, POSification of the world!  I currently have no idea how I will retrieve that money without taking other losses to buy ETH I don’t want.  Thanks, Ethereum!]

I don’t think either of those falls into the category of “relapsing drug addict or compulsive gambler”.

You are not completely on the wrong track, even though some of these inferences about correlation are bullshit.

In other words, surely we may well have some short-term correlation between bitcoin and various  mature asset classes.. and why did you not include the NASDAQ in there .. mainstream pundits love to talk about bitcoin's supposed correlation with the NASDAQ.. but sometimes the magnitude is just way different in one direction or another .. even though they are moving in the same direction at the same time... and such magnitude differences should provide some hints and a decent amount of consideration that some care has to be taken in terms of expecting that bitcoin respond in the same way as various mainstream mature assets or even to consider some temporary divergences that end up making BIG ASS differences in terms of "you should have been HODLing bitcoin you dumb fuck" kinds of happenings (not talking about you specifically, Biodom - even though sometimes you deserve to be included in such.. you fuck... (said with a large amount of affection).. hahahaha)




On a slightly different topic.  I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..

Regarding my own personal leverage:  I have posted quite a few times in this thread and in other places on the forum about the value of leveraging in order to frontload your BTC investment when you are not sure about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and you believe that your cashflow is not coming in fast enough for you to be able to sufficiently advantage from such potential UPpity BTC price moves that might happen but are not guaranteed, and also I have never shied away from assertions that anyone employing these kinds of leveraging tactics are responsible to make sure that they are able to service their loans (leverage) under negative BTC price scenarios (or other unexpected negative events that might happen) and even possible extreme negative scenarios.. .. which surely these events can be considered as leveraging of future incoming cashflows and those future incoming cashflows could dry up or shrink, so in that sense, there should be back up cashflow or sources of funds, too in order to service such loans in even worse case scenarios..

Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC  price bottom, I am also not going to apologize for my maintaining a position that the use of leverage can be a very valuable practice if used with a decent amount  of prudence and weighing of the various expected values and balancing those scenarios  in order to prepare for lower probability scenarios coming true in contrast to the higher probability scenarios contained in your various calculations that happen at the time of contemplating whether or not to use leverage.. and if so, how much.

From my own personal perspective, I have used leverage a lot of times in life, and may well have not gotten into decently high levels of positive networth without the employment of various kinds of financial leverage that I had at my disposal over the years... and even in recent times, I have used leverage also.. yet even with my most recent leveraging of bitcoin/cash and various values related to cashflow and other assets that I have in order to attempt to front load more extensively on the potentiality of Bitcoin UPpity.. my total leverage amounts were likely less than 0.25% of my total BTC value.. and even after BTC prices dropped 50% or even our current max bottom of 75%, I am still under 1% leverage in those various standing and ongoing debts that I had decided to employ and I am still servicing and the employment of those debts surely did not end up paying off as of to date because the bitcoin price failed to go up, did not even go sideways as a second best scenario.. did not do a mediocre or reasonably aggressive correction but instead went balls to the wall into extreme beyond even more extreme expectations of a correction..

So yeah, it sucks that it would have been better to have had not employed such leverage, and a main solice may well be that the amount of the leverage in terms of the portfolio value is not really very high.. .. and some might proclaim, why even employ such low level of leverage in the first place.. that would have been less than 0.5%.. how the fuck you going to profit when you are employing such low leverage, and I do believe that there is still potential to profit from those kinds of plays.. especially since I have profited a lot in the past from doing it.. and surely sometimes it would have payed off way better to employ higher percentages of leverage, so to some extent there is some luck involved in terms of ONOY having had employed less than 0.5% leverage, because I would not have been opposed to something like 5%-ish leverage if some decently correct circumstances might have presented themselves to me.. I would have had some difficulties going very much higher than those amounts.. but again, for me it depends on the deal.. and surely some products that are merely earning high interest without much if any logical or convincing explanation of whey would not be the kinds of opportunities that I would have considered as good leveraging opportunities.... so in that regard, there may well be some luck since entering those kinds of deals partially depend upon when, too.. and maybe the amount that ends up getting deployed for such will also be affected by details of the deal.

Great Shub-Niggurath the almighty old one...

How many keyboards do you buy in a month?  And here I thought *I* was loquacious.

Robots don’t need keyboards.  (How do I know?  Um...  “Trust me.”)

[Torque]

Wha?  Is 19 June a holiday in the United States?  I was unaware.

The United States appropriated it from Texas.

Obama missed his chance to create yet another divisive, bogus Federal holiday.

Biden fixed that last year, because Libtard pandering.  

They apparently couldn't have used the exact day of Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation (Sept 22) or the day it became legal (Jan 1st) because reasons, I guess.  

Hey, let's just keep adding more and more stupid Federal holidays until no one has to work anymore! Hurray!

May the 4th, Revenge of the 5th, anyone?

[death_wish]

Hey, let's just keep adding more and more stupid Federal holidays until no one has to work anymore! Hurray!

It will fix the American economy.  Nobody works.  Productivity is zero.  Therefore, demand for things priced in money drops to zero; and the U.S. dollar recovers from its inflation.  Problem solved!

May the 4th, Revenge of the 5th, anyone?

After I take revenge by rebuilding my BTC, I will celebrate memorialize that one every year with giant red candlesticks.


(Sauce.)

[Gachapin]

haha


Archaeology has unearthed wisdom from ancient Egypt, still relevant today.

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1538931989356634113?cxt=HHwWgoCz8bOfsdsqAAAA

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

[Gambit2s]

If you rewind the clock back to 2014 when the monthly RSI dipped below 20  a huge dump followed right afterwards and  took us around 600 days to fully recover from it, Same thing happend in 2018 (when people also used to say that this time its different) a devastating crash happend again when the RSI crossed 20 (took us another 400 ish days for the price to recover).



So fast forward today and the RSI dipped below 20 again for the monthly so its likely that this temporary pump we see happening atm doesn't mean much and the true bottom is still not yet reached (maybe? what do i know).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

If you rewind the clock back to 2014 when the monthly RSI dipped below 20  a huge dump followed right afterwards and  took us around 600 days to fully recover from it, Same thing happend in 2018 (when people also used to say that this time its different) a devastating crash happend again when the RSI crossed 20 (took us another 400 ish days for the price to recover).



So fast forward today and the RSI dipped below 20 again for the monthly so its likely that this temporary pump we see happening atm doesn't mean much and the true bottom is still not yet reached (maybe? what do i know).

Anything could happen, but where is the prerequisite exponential move (in 2021) that preceded both 2014 and 2018?
Nowhere.

[philipma1957]

If you rewind the clock back to 2014 when the monthly RSI dipped below 20  a huge dump followed right afterwards and  took us around 600 days to fully recover from it, Same thing happend in 2018 (when people also used to say that this time its different) a devastating crash happend again when the RSI crossed 20 (took us another 400 ish days for the price to recover).



So fast forward today and the RSI dipped below 20 again for the monthly so its likely that this temporary pump we see happening atm doesn't mean much and the true bottom is still not yet reached (maybe? what do i know).

or this time it is different

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

TA bullish for Bitcoin:  Rely on it.^*  If you put on your fantasylandia goggles and squint hard, a week and counting almost entirely below 200 WMA, with a non-flash-crash dip of >21% below 200 WMA and far below the previous 4-year cycle top, means that 200 WMA is the bottom.  If the bottom is not yet in, and we soon go down to $15k or $13k or $OH MY GAWD I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, then 200 WMA will still somehow be the bottom.

TA bearish for Bitcoin:

[Very beary bearish TA, based on past performance in the alleged Holy 4-Year Cycle.]
Same thing happend in 2018 (when people also used to say that this time its different)
[Oh, noes!  We are about to crash even harder!]

or this time it is different

Boldface is in the original.

“Past performance does not guarantee future results.”

Either way.

Forget the horoscopes.  Back to basics:  What first brought you to Bitcoin?

I came to Bitcoin because I have negative past experience with sharp practices by banks.  Bitcoin lets me “be my own bank”.  Bitcoin lets me engage in productive business that would otherwise be infeasible.  Then, Bitcoin lets me store the proceeds exclusively under my own control.  Bitcoin is better money.  That’s why I first came to Bitcoin.

Well, secondarily that; primarily idealism.  But that is a good reason, and more people will understand it.

What is your Bitcoin story?  What is the very first thing that originally brought you to Bitcoin?  If it involved the words “moon”, “Lambo”, or “number go up”, then you will probably mindrust if you haven’t already.  Bye.  If you thought “digital gold”, then you will probably stay—if you really treat it like gold!  Goldbugs are long-term thinkers—the ultimate long-term thinkers—not moonboys.


^* “Bitterness” check:  I am not bitter at Bitcoin.  Never!  I love Bitcoin.

I am bitter at the horoscope labelled “200 WMA”.  Because after I had already lost most of my BTC, I backed off to a position of relying on 200 WMA.  I didn’t really believe in it as TA; but I did rationalize it (and have long rationalized it, and explained it to others) as a Schelling point.  My theory:  Widespread belief in 200 WMA as the bottom (or approximate bottom) would bring a wall of bids to not to miss the opportunity, thus giving unshakeable support—while also driving dumpers to wait for it to recover above 200 WMA, thus drying up the supply of coins for eager bidders at or within about 5% below 200 WMA.

It was under 200 WMA that I lost almost all the BTC then remaining to me.

It was under 200 WMA that I was finally crushed down to less than 0.05 BTC.

It was >20% below 200 WMA that I finally pulled out all the stops, and made one last drastic sacrifice to get the hell out of debt with my remaining itty-bitty bits of Bitcoin.  (The “bright side” was that most of my debt had already been paid off the worst and most expensive way possible, i.e. by liquidations; I was no longer stuck in a position where I had no hope of paying off that debt.)

After I foolishly got myself in a bad situation, and I was already mostly wrecked, my own neatly rationalized roundabout belief in 200 WMA dealt me the coup de grace.  Well, it was not graceful.  200 WMA royally fucked me.

Good riddance to the myth of 200 WMA as a “bottom”.