Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

...get your shit together...

Don't get me wrong.. I am not suggesting that all credit cards are paid off and completely extract yourself from all the mess that you got into over your 50+ years of life or whatever it might happen to be..

LOL.  You are so far off target, I am quite sure you are being deliberately obtuse:  You are not that dumb.

I have no credit cards.  I used to, once upon a time.  I cut them up and threw them away, because I am against that whole system.

As it now stands, I have zero debt of any kind.  At the time I started posting here last month, my entire debt load consisted of a single margin account that ate almost all of my assets.  I paid that off in full on 18 June 2022.  For years until January 2022, I had zero debt.  I think that I am not bad at keeping my “shit” together, as you so elegantly put it.

Now, I am unsure whether I should sadly thank you for wasting your time trying to give me advice that is entirely inapplicable to me, or I should wonder if you are trying to discredit me by misrepresenting me as some debt-ridden defi degen who just can’t seem to “get [his] shit together”.

I have previously suffered life catastrophes that wiped me out financially.  Unlike my recent loss, those were not my fault.  I have said that before.

What happened before is none of anybody’s business.  I will not give any hints.  But let’s put it this way:  If, in the hypothetical, I had been bankrupted by the medical expenses of a family member’s prolonged terminal illness, then you would not mistreat me as some “gambler”, and you would not dare to give me some outrageously condescending “get your shit together” lecture.

It wasn’t that, but it was equally in the realm of tragic misfortunes that can befall anyone.  Newsflash:  Life is unfair.  I have learned to take that in stride.

I will not say any more about my life, or what is really going on with me.  I have exposed too much already—for my own safety and privacy, I have exposed too much in a public forum.  It is anyway none of your business.  I am not asking for your advice, and I do not need your advice.

Suffice it to say that I consciously choose to be “overinvested” in Bitcoin, as a proportion of my assets.  Ever since I got deeply into Bitcoin, I have always made that choice—for principle, not for profit.  It is my choice to make, and I very well understand it.

By the way.. you seem to be trolling me with your continued ongoing nonsense question about whether you are overinvested.

No.  I have seen you tell people they were overinvested for keeping all their life savings in Bitcoin, without significant fiat, and without sufficient other investment assets.  Trolling you?

In the post to which I hereby reply, you give some of your standard advice about starting at 1% to 25% of one’s portfolio.  That looks low to me.  Trolling you?

And it is a legitimate question how I can simultaneously be a “lowcoiner” with too little BTC to care about it, and also “overinvested” in BTC.

I know much more about finance than you presume.  Any professional financial advisor in the world would tell me that with my current overall level of assets, I am drastically overinvested in Bitcoin.  Overinvested and overexposed.  I do not care.  That is my choice—a choice made consciously and intelligently.

Seems to me that there are no shortcuts outside of gambling.. and I do not recommend gambling..  

Gamblers’ intuitions are usually wrong.

Protip:  It is mathematically proved that for a certain described “red-and-black” model of a game of chance, the optimal strategy is “bold play”:  Bet as much as you need to for winning the whole gain you want in one shot, rather than attempting many smaller bets.  The result has been extended and adjusted to various game scenarios.  This paper has a good description, and a bibliography:

https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0412362

Needless to say, I do not recommend “bold play” gambling as investment advice.

In other words, there has been plenty of time to stack sats.. .. including the last year from the first correction down to $28.6k in May, June, July 2021..

Why do you even mention this?  Are you paying attention?

As of January 2022, I had plenty of Bitcoin.  Never enough, but a decently-sized chunk.

I did not buy in 2021 (except for my usual adjustments from altcoins), because I do not usually buy in bull markets!  I prefer to buy in bear markets.  Accordingly, I have always loved bear markets.

I missed the dip in July 2021, because I like to ignore the market.  That is my privilege, when my coins are safely in my wallet where they belong.

POS diptwats have no power over me (or anyone else who wants to talk about stake in relation to their bitcoin investment strategies) or my use of the word stake in terms of its already existing parlance.

You have power over you use the word.

You are speaking to me as if BTC is a governance token which, on the basis of wealth, grants a club card for the privilege of expressing respectable opinions about Bitcoin.  And you are leveraging that as a subtle type of ad hominem to discredit such of my other propositions as you find disagreeable, without addressing my arguments on their merits.

Stop that nonsense.

I have known total degens who had >100x more BTC than I have ever had.  All they knew was greed and stupidity.

I have also known kind, intelligent people who gave far more to the Bitcoin community than I ever have—who wound up with less BTC than I had once upon a time.

Ultimately, ideas need to stand on their own merits.  If you disagree with me, and if your best argument is to call me a “low-coiner” because I just suffered a catastrophic near-wipeout, then that about sums up the credibility of your own arguments, and your ability to defend them.

(thus your trolling of the idea as well as your trolling me about some of your other dumb ideas related to proof of stake and also bitcoin as a stock and a few other dumb and/or misleading points that you continue to make.. a couple of your recent dumb ones related to gold supposedly being comparable to bitcoin, the 200-week moving average as being broken.,

[...]
why are you even talking about that shitcoin.. aka gold

If you think that the 200 WMA is not broken, then you are living in fantasyland.  And if you were to give investment advice based on it being a bottom, after it is broken, then that would be outright dishonest.

As for gold, you are being deliberately obtuse in calling it a “shitcoin”.  Calling gold a “shitcoin” is not a serious argument; it tends to show that I am wasting my time in this discussion.

I have always considered gold and Bitcoin to be complementary; and I have always said that Bitcoiner arguments that deprecate gold are as ill-considered as goldbugs who deprecate Bitcoin.  But that is beside the point:  I was not talking about gold, but about Bitcoin.

You seem to have a problem with my arguing for Bitcoin’s fundamental value.  I don’t know why.  Do you hate Bitcoin?

Reality does not give a hoot about your obsession with some lines on a chart:  In the long term, reality settles on fundamental value.  Now, I have gone “back to basics” and argued persuasively that the breaking of 200 WMA does not matter.  I have argued persuasively that in the long term, it does not matter how low Bitcoin now tumbles.

I think that is important:  Just a few days ago, I saw right here in WO some Bitcoiners get scared that were were deep under the magical 200 WMA line.  Scared.  Because we broke some meaningless lines on a chart:  The 200 WMA, the 2017 cycle top...  Oh, will you now tell me that the 2017 top was not now broken “because reasons”?  Anyway, I think it’s important to tell people that these things do not matter.  Bitcoin still valuable.  Even if the bottom is not yet in (there is no guarantee that we’ve bottomed!), this little downturn will someday be a subject for laughter.  “Oh, do you remember when Bitcoin crashed so hard that it smashed all of the dumb TA bottoms?  Well, look at it now!”

I have argued persuasively that Bitcoin, like gold, can survive very deep bear markets with no precedent in any TA juju.  Do you disagree?  Now that, in fact, many of your own TA beliefs have been thoroughly violated, do you believe that Bitcoin will die?

Your dismissal of my ideas as “dumb” rather applies a word that describes your reply here.

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[JayJuanGee]

You are not completely on the wrong track, even though some of these inferences about correlation are bullshit.

In other words, surely we may well have some short-term correlation between bitcoin and various  mature asset classes.. and why did you not include the NASDAQ in there .. mainstream pundits love to talk about bitcoin's supposed correlation with the NASDAQ.. but sometimes the magnitude is just way different in one direction or another .. even though they are moving in the same direction at the same time... and such magnitude differences should provide some hints and a decent amount of consideration that some care has to be taken in terms of expecting that bitcoin respond in the same way as various mainstream mature assets or even to consider some temporary divergences that end up making BIG ASS differences in terms of "you should have been HODLing bitcoin you dumb fuck" kinds of happenings (not talking about you specifically, Biodom - even though sometimes you deserve to be included in such.. you fuck... (said with a large amount of affection).. hahahaha)




On a slightly different topic.  I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..

Regarding my own personal leverage:  I have posted quite a few times in this thread and in other places on the forum about the value of leveraging in order to frontload your BTC investment when you are not sure about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and you believe that your cashflow is not coming in fast enough for you to be able to sufficiently advantage from such potential UPpity BTC price moves that might happen but are not guaranteed, and also I have never shied away from assertions that anyone employing these kinds of leveraging tactics are responsible to make sure that they are able to service their loans (leverage) under negative BTC price scenarios (or other unexpected negative events that might happen) and even possible extreme negative scenarios.. .. which surely these events can be considered as leveraging of future incoming cashflows and those future incoming cashflows could dry up or shrink, so in that sense, there should be back up cashflow or sources of funds, too in order to service such loans in even worse case scenarios..

Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC  price bottom, I am also not going to apologize for my maintaining a position that the use of leverage can be a very valuable practice if used with a decent amount  of prudence and weighing of the various expected values and balancing those scenarios  in order to prepare for lower probability scenarios coming true in contrast to the higher probability scenarios contained in your various calculations that happen at the time of contemplating whether or not to use leverage.. and if so, how much.

From my own personal perspective, I have used leverage a lot of times in life, and may well have not gotten into decently high levels of positive networth without the employment of various kinds of financial leverage that I had at my disposal over the years... and even in recent times, I have used leverage also.. yet even with my most recent leveraging of bitcoin/cash and various values related to cashflow and other assets that I have in order to attempt to front load more extensively on the potentiality of Bitcoin UPpity.. my total leverage amounts were likely less than 0.25% of my total BTC value.. and even after BTC prices dropped 50% or even our current max bottom of 75%, I am still under 1% leverage in those various standing and ongoing debts that I had decided to employ and I am still servicing and the employment of those debts surely did not end up paying off as of to date because the bitcoin price failed to go up, did not even go sideways as a second best scenario.. did not do a mediocre or reasonably aggressive correction but instead went balls to the wall into extreme beyond even more extreme expectations of a correction..

So yeah, it sucks that it would have been better to have had not employed such leverage, and a main solice may well be that the amount of the leverage in terms of the portfolio value is not really very high.. .. and some might proclaim, why even employ such low level of leverage in the first place.. that would have been less than 0.5%.. how the fuck you going to profit when you are employing such low leverage, and I do believe that there is still potential to profit from those kinds of plays.. especially since I have profited a lot in the past from doing it.. and surely sometimes it would have payed off way better to employ higher percentages of leverage, so to some extent there is some luck involved in terms of ONOY having had employed less than 0.5% leverage, because I would not have been opposed to something like 5%-ish leverage if some decently correct circumstances might have presented themselves to me.. I would have had some difficulties going very much higher than those amounts.. but again, for me it depends on the deal.. and surely some products that are merely earning high interest without much if any logical or convincing explanation of whey would not be the kinds of opportunities that I would have considered as good leveraging opportunities.... so in that regard, there may well be some luck since entering those kinds of deals partially depend upon when, too.. and maybe the amount that ends up getting deployed for such will also be affected by details of the deal.

Great Shub-Niggurath the almighty old one...

How many keyboards do you buy in a month?  

I cannot disclose that information.

And here I thought *I* was loquacious.

Yes.  You are.

Explanation

Wait for it, we're gonna bounce any minute now. It's gonna be strong. A real trend reversal. Bullish phase incoming.

OK, now I'm getting scared.
For the first time in many many months price goes below my DCA and the local Llama spots out this???
Is this what they were talking about as "Max Pain?"

I doubt that we are even close to max pain...

bears are going to push the BTC price down as low as they can and hold it there as long as they can.

Good call, Jay.

When I saw that, I thought: "did I even say that?"  Then I clicked on it, and I also noticed the date.

Holy fucking shit that was more than a month an d a half ago whe we first broke below the 100-week moving average at $35k.


In other words, it seems to me that you are a little out of context in your leaving some ambiguity in when that statement was made, no?

[death_wish]

Explanation

Wait for it, we're gonna bounce any minute now. It's gonna be strong. A real trend reversal. Bullish phase incoming.

OK, now I'm getting scared.
For the first time in many many months price goes below my DCA and the local Llama spots out this???
Is this what they were talking about as "Max Pain?"

I doubt that we are even close to max pain...

bears are going to push the BTC price down as low as they can and hold it there as long as they can.

Good call, Jay.

When I saw that, I thought: "did I even say that?"  Then I clicked on it, and I also noticed the date.

Holy fucking shit that was more than a month an d a half ago whe we first broke below the 100-week moving average at $35k.


In other words, it seems to me that you are a little out of context in your leaving some ambiguity in when that statement was made, no?

When there is a timestamp right there atop the quote, in adequately conveys the time of the post to the reader.

If the reader can read.

“Out of context”?  “Ambiguity”?  If you were confused, take responsibility for your own carelessness and inattentiveness.

Moreover, I am puzzled as to why you would object.  It is a little WO tradition to test people’s predictions.  I have seen you do similarly to ImThour, to criticize his nonsense:  Pull up quotes later.  Here, far from criticizing, I said that you made a good call.  It was obviously a good call.

P.S., that obviously wasn’t when we broke $35k.  I quoted the nearest ChartBuddy post before yours, to show this.  It was days after we had smashed down through $35k.

[Richy_T]

strawbs currently has 814 activity.  Since he now has passed the merit threshold, his account is predestined to reach Legendary rank at an activity level known only to the administrators.  Some vague statements have been made about how this is actually calculated; I forgot what and where years ago, due to apathy.

Ah, I though that was a merit thing, not activity.

[JayJuanGee]

Gold is just bitcoin that can’t be sent over the internet.

Citing Snowden as if he were a bitcoin  expert..

Ok.  

On a slightly different topic.  I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots (not going to name any names, here)... .. fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..

[...] Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC  price bottom, [...]

IMO, from here forward, continual reliance on 200 WMA is embarrassing.  200 WMA is dead as a Bitcoin Bottom.  Failure to acknowledge this reeks of “Reality Distortion Field”—a public relations problem that is particularly acute, when the public is already primed with many years of “Bitcoin is a cult” propaganda.

Seems way too early to be making broad proclamations about the death of the significance of the 200-week moving average as a bottom.. or a bottom is or whatever we are going to end up calling it or changing it to.. if we even need to change it.. just depends upon context.. I am not going to presume more down from here even though it is surely decently possible to have more down from here.

Please reread my post about gold.  You entirely missed the point.  I was not talking about gold, in itself:  I was providing an analogy to digital gold, i.e. Bitcoin.

I don't want to suffer any more than I already did when I read it the first time.

You seem to have as tendency to weave through a lot of abstractions and you seem to also frequently leave out important points, so that might be part of the reason that I cannot accept a lot of your framings on a variety of your price related discussions.. and even other stuff related to bitcoin's investment thesis and personal ways to manage risk, especially.  Horey sheit..!!

Gold buyers don’t say such things to themselves as, “This astrological line on a chart is our bottom, because past performance predicts future results.”

If a statistical line representing historical prices is crossed, die-hard goldbugs do not suddenly buckle at the knees and cry, “I can’t believe it!  We shouldn’t be here!”

bitcoin has quite a few differences from gold including but not limited to:  bitcoin is very immature asset class so is likely taking a lot of whatever monetary value that gold may have still had.. and gold is likely not going to lose all of its monetary value.. but quite a lot of it.

bitcoin is bringing way more abilities for way wider adoption of bitcoin because fractions can be bought..

I am sick of hearing about gold in this thread.. we talked about it so much in previous years going back to the beginning of my membership on the forum.. sick of it.. sick of it.. repetition..   Your points in regard to your bitcoin gold comparison.. even if you are wanting to be charitable towards bitcoin.. .. if you have any.. are not resonating with me..

As I now write, we are about 10% below 200 WMA.  We recently went much further below.  We have been below it for too long, and gone too deep below it for too long, to pretend that this it was even approximately the bottom (as it was in all previous crashes).

Clinging to 200 WMA as having some special significance is now Considered Harmful(TM).

Just because you want the 200-week moving average to lose its relevance/significance does not mean that it will lose its relevance/significance... so stop  ur lil selfie in trying to ascribe that I am clinging to it, too much blah blah blah.. that's bullshit..

I give less than two shits about the 200-week moving average.. except that it seems to continue to be a very significant and relevant consideration.. just like the stock to flow is. . .whether either one of them holds or not or whatever spin you are trying to get from bitcoin's price being below such 200-week moving average price area for a week so far... yes the BTC spot price has been up to 20% below the 200-week moving average so far, as well.

Let’s focus on the fundamentals.  Not on TA lines.  

"We " can focus on whatever the fuck "we" like.

You can go live your lil fantasy of hoping the BTC price comes down while you proclaim that you are not hoping for such all that you like.. Your hope is not going to add likelihood for it to happen.  maybe it will go down, and maybe it will not.

Gold buyers who bought gold around $260 about two decades ago were buying because, um, it’s gold.  Of course, it is valuable!  And Bitcoin?

I am not going ot get into this.. you know why because your dumbass attempt at a comparison is a stretch of relevance at best.  I already mentioned that bitcoin happens to be about 1,000x better than gold..  but bitcoin is also less than 1/10th the value of gold in terms of market cap but sure it could take 50 to 200 years to work out the matching of the BTC price to the actual comparison relative to gold.

Regarding my own personal leverage:

You are obviously a sophisticated investor with decades of experience.

Please just help me remind people who think they are “sophisticated” to remember that:

• As I recently mentioned somewhere, it has happened that a pricing oracle mispriced BTC at $5402 due to alleged “software errors” when BTC was trading around $43,500.  No actual BTC was traded at $5402, but people were liquidated based on a BTC price of $5402.  (Correction of what I said before:  The “erroneous” publishers published negligible BTC prices, not “absolutely zero” BTC prices; the effect on the average was the same.)
• In October 2021, BTC actually flash-crashed to $8k on Binance.  Only for about 40 seconds—but, well, someone please tell me, is Binance’s liquidator any more forgiving than others of brief dips?
• Unlike a traditional margin call, cryptocurrency exchange liquidation generally requires only a dip one microdollar below your liquidation price for one microsecond.
  

  The whole cryptocurrency margin ecosystem has the incentives of loan-sharking.  Those incentives are exploited in full accord with the ethics of people who also profit from pump-and-dump Ponzi-coins.
  
  You need to be either stupid or crazy to take a loan on these terms, for almost any purpose.  To avoid accusations of deficient IQ tantamount to mental retardation, I plead a bout of temporary insanity.  Do I know better than to do this?  Yes, I do.  Why did I do it - why, why, why!?
  

• Leverage is a curve, not linear.  (That’s also why it’s so profitable, if you avoid getting rekt!)  Thus, if BTC is priced at $5k, your 0.5% leverage will suddenly skyrocket much higher than a newbie would expect.  Mentioned for the sake of any newbies reading this—not to insult your intelligence or experience.
• I myself started out with low leverage—not as low as yours, but pretty damn low.  I also started with a definite strategy to deleverage and exit, and sufficient assets to do so if necessary.  Part of my problem is that I did not obey my own plans—but only part.  
  

You are engaging in a little fantasy if you speculate that my characterization of my leverage f the last year or two going from 0.5% and up to 1% means that there is any chance that I would get liquidated.. I do not fuck around with those various exchange products.. so my use of the term leverage is describing some cashflow management employment methods that you seem to NOT understand or want to understand such dynamics of various kinds of ways to use debt instruments to your advantage and surely sometimes there might be opportunity cost or whatever ways that the debt is used might not end up profiting as much as anticipated .. but anyhow for you, as soon as I mention that I had used leverage, you presume that I am fucking around with some gambling and with exchange products or dependency of the exchange prices, which is not true.  I do not fuck around with that shit.

I may have already said too much about my use of leverage situation because you are so desperate and trying to grasp upon anything and leading your imagination into fantasies, and you miss the point that I was making in terms of how little I am employing such tools or putting any of my finances at risk. even though surely there was room for me to have had used debt leverage more than I did in the past year and a half or so, there was some just coincidence in regards to what kinds of deals that I had entered into in the past year and a half-or so... and whatever.. I said enough on the topic.. and you seem to want to read it as if something similar to you is going on when it is not even close to whatever fucking around you were doing and proclaiming your actions to be prudent and/or to be innocent.

Anyway, what was that about the best-laid plans of mice and men?

But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain
For promis’d joy.

[/li]
[/list]

For these reasons, I have positively decided that if I ever use leverage or BTC-backed debt again, it will be either:

• With a pro-grade robot.  A robot can react faster than any human.  That does not protect against buggy oracles or near-instantaneous flash-crashes, but it does cover almost any other scenario.
• For extremely short-term loans.  For example, I currently have some assets locked in stake which I cannot release without ETH gas I cannot afford.  (Yes, I wanted to grab some ETH at $900 recently for this.  No money!)  When the time comes that I decide to unlock it, I may borrow against my itty-bitty BTC to buy ETH (or even just borrow ETH), unlock shitcoins from stake contracts, sell some shitcoins to cover the loan immediately so that I can immediately withdraw my BTC, and then sell some more shitcoins to buy more BTC.  It should all be over in minutes.  To get rekt that way, I would need bad luck tantamount to winning a negative lottery.  [Edit:  Bad example.  Duh.  The contract requires 7 days to unlock, during which time the money is untouchable—and its volatile value at the end is unpredictable at the beginning.  That is why I didn’t, couldn’t use this money to save my BTC.  Thanks, POSification of the world!  I currently have no idea how I will retrieve that money without taking other losses to buy ETH I don’t want.  Thanks, Ethereum!]

I don’t think either of those falls into the category of “relapsing drug addict or compulsive gambler”.

I guess you are cured, then.

[cygan]

[El duderino_]

Dude on the move….

Where this is?

First one first boosted….

[death_wish]

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.

+1 to that. But to be fair it is a weekend. Which is why they dumped in the first place.

We were already in a channel more or less under 200 WMA, between about that and ~10% below.  IMO, it had been doing that for long enough to be teetering on borderline breakage.  I had been hoping for a scenario like August–September 2015—scraping along just below/just above for a month, then recovering.  At this point, since we crashed even below the previous cycle top (even in nominal dollars, never mind real value!), I think that 200 WMA is quite dead.  Not “Bitcoin is dead”:  Excessive reliance on a technical indicator is dead.

Gold had a two-decade extreme bear market.  Anyone who bought gold at the wrong time had to wait an awful lot longer than four years to be not underwater.  I also think that was a politically motivated economic attack, though I don’t want to get into off-topic discussion here that will derail into other matters.  (I have mentioned this in some prior post, a few weeks ago...  Something about gold-producing countries under international sanctions.)

Only fools declared gold dead.  Smart people bought gold as low as ~$260, not so very long ago.

If we can escape from erroneous thinking about Bitcoin as “like a stock”, and really start treating it as digital gold, then there is ample precedent for shrugging off much worse crashes and bear markets than I now anticipate.  As bad as this one is.  Even if we are still nowhere near the bottom—maybe; maybe not; I am realistically pessimistic, but not prepared to make a call either way.

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 WMA is what scares the shit out of me.

Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology.

FTFY.  As an inveterate pedant, I could not resist.

The previous cycle high was the *last* piece of TA that BTC chart had not violated previously. ... It was an almost religious symbol to some ppl.

Now that violation has happened, individuals have to make their decision... either say:

1. ' this indicates some serious imminent unknown, so BTC is broken in some way'

or  2. ' No form of TA applies anymore, so HODL as an act of pure faith'

Gold historical comparison is a helpful justification for (2), which is probably the line most WO posters would take.

Wow!  I am surprised that you received so many merits for such gobble-dey-gook, and I was going to send you an smerit my lil selfie just because I was glad to see you, but I could not bring myself to click on the send button after I read what you actually posted.

You are presented a false dichotomy.

You will note, Jay, that I did not send merit to Majormax’s post.  “Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), suchmoon (1)”.  None of these people sent merit to my post, which was strongly positive towards Bitcoin—only to his, which was negative towards Bitcoin.  Not that I care:  You brought it up, and it seems noteworthy in the context.

Instead, I wrote to Majormax a thoughtful reply in which I repudiated the concept of “HODL as an act of pure faith”.  I thought he misinterpreted my post—as you certainly misinterpreted it, Jay.  I was not hostile to Majormax; why should I be?  He replied to me; I replied to him; that’s public discourse:

Do we call this “digital gold”?  Well, let’s treat it as “like gold”!

Thereupon, I do NOT urge to “HODL as an act of pure faith”.  No way!

Some of my recent posts have mentioned refocusing on Bitcoin’s fundamental value.  In lieu of an in-depth exploration, here are a few points of cold realism, not “pure faith”:

At that point, I briefly described three reasons that Bitcoin has fundamental value.  I noted that this was only a summary, and the list could be continued.

Others tend to appreciate my descriptions of Bitcoin’s value.

Reviewing recent posts on this thread, insofar as I can see, Jay, it looks to me that you are now picking a fight with me because (a) I value gold, and I compare Bitcoin favourably to gold; (b) I don’t buy TA, never really did, and now honestly declare broken lines broken instead of retreating to a Reality Distortion Field; (c) Majormax sent me a merit.

That shows some poor judgment on your part, as well as a flawed ability to analyze these issues.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gappie]

Dude on the move….

Where this is?

First one first boosted….

Changi Airport Terminal 1

[death_wish]

Gold is just bitcoin that can’t be sent over the internet.

Citing Snowden as if he were a bitcoin  expert..

Ok.  

When you persistently attack and ridicule me for saying positive things about Bitcoin, it shows that you are not discussing these matters in good faith.  Either that, or you are against Bitcoin, and therefore against speaking positively of Bitcoin.

(Moreover, for those of us who come to Bitcoin from a cypherpunks perspective, Snowden is a hero.  Too many people do not appreciate what he did—what he risked and sacrificed to try to help free us from odious mass-surveillance.  Some of us do.  Whether one agrees or disagrees with him on various issues—I not infrequently disagree with him on some issues—the man deserves our respect.)

Seems way too early to be making broad proclamations about the death of the significance of the 200-week moving average as a bottom.. or a bottom is or whatever we are going to end up calling it or changing it to.. if we even need to change it.. just depends upon context.. I am not going to presume more down from here even though it is surely decently possible to have more down from here.

You are showing the opposite syndrome of the nocoiner who says that he will buy at $20k, then at $20k decides to wait for $10k.

By definition, a bottom needs to be at least some sort of an approximate predictor of—well, the bottom.  I think it’s reasonable to exclude very brief crashes as outliers—such as the deepest crash in the March 2020 Covid panic, which was extremely brief with a quick bounce up to just under 200 WMA.  I think it’s reasonable to allow some little wiggle-room below, for a brief time—such as a few days in March 2020, among other examples.

Even assuming that the bottom is already in (maybe/maybe not), it is either delusional or dishonest to claim that $22.3k (200 WMA as of 12 June, just before the crash) was anywhere near the bottom for June of 2022.

"We " can focus on whatever the fuck "we" like.

You can go live your lil fantasy of hoping the BTC price comes down while you proclaim that you are not hoping for such all that you like..

[...]

You are engaging in a little fantasy if you speculate that my characterization of my leverage f the last year or two going from 0.5% and up to 1% means that there is any chance that I would get liquidated..

[...]

I may have already said too much about my use of leverage situation because you are so desperate and trying to grasp upon anything and leading your imagination into fantasies,

[...much insubstantive and unintelligent sneering and ridicule generally snipped, above and below...]

Well, now you are completely off your rocker:  Wildly accusing me of “fantasies” that are nowhere even near close to my mind, and are not shown in the text that you quoted—nor in anything else that I have said—say what, now I’m suddenly fantasizing that you will get liquidated?  All these, rather, are your fantasies.  You are simply projecting.  It is a bit embarrassing that you are suddenly falling apart this way, when I’m the one who just got my assets nearly wiped.

It is particularly egregious for you to accuse me of fantasizing that you will get liquidated.  Obscene.  After I have been on an extended campaign to warn newbies that leverage is dangerous, you made a long post about your own use of leverage—arguing with nobody, for no apparent reason, that leverage works great for you.  (Doth protest too much?)  I curtly acknowledged that you are a sophisticated investor, then wrote out a list of warnings for any others who believe they are “sophisticated”.  Now, I am fantasizing that you will get liquidated?  You are nuts—and it shows much about your character.

If our positions were reversed, it seems that you would be fantasizing that I will get liquidated.  There is no other possible reason for you to believe that I would think that way—but that you tend to think that way.  That’s sick, and there is no call to project that onto me.

I am disappointed.  I had believed that you had wiser judgment, and a more even keel in troubled waters.  Although I allow that you may be generally upset as we all are lately, and all the moreso because so many of your earlier predictions were smashed by events that none of us foresaw, it is no excuse for you to go off on me this way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Dude on the move….

Where this is?

First one first boosted….

Shiphol?

[Arriemoller]

Whwn does nasdaq (US) open?

[JayJuanGee]

Wha?  Is 19 June a holiday in the United States?  I was unaware.

The United States appropriated it from Texas.

Obama missed his chance to create yet another divisive, bogus Federal holiday.

Biden fixed that last year, because Libtard pandering.  

They apparently couldn't have used the exact day of Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation (Sept 22) or the day it became legal (Jan 1st) because reasons, I guess.  

Hey, let's just keep adding more and more stupid Federal holidays until no one has to work anymore! Hurray!

May the 4th, Revenge of the 5th, anyone?

You sound a wee bit bitter.

...get your shit together...

Don't get me wrong.. I am not suggesting that all credit cards are paid off and completely extract yourself from all the mess that you got into over your 50+ years of life or whatever it might happen to be..

LOL.  You are so far off target, I am quite sure you are being deliberately obtuse:  You are not that dumb.

I have no credit cards.  I used to, once upon a time.  I cut them up and threw them away, because I am against that whole system.

As it now stands, I have zero debt of any kind.  At the time I started posting here last month, my entire debt load consisted of a single margin account that ate almost all of my assets.  I paid that off in full on 18 June 2022.  For years until January 2022, I had zero debt.  I think that I am not bad at keeping my “shit” together, as you so elegantly put it.

Now, I am unsure whether I should sadly thank you for wasting your time trying to give me advice that is entirely inapplicable to me, or I should wonder if you are trying to discredit me by misrepresenting me as some debt-ridden defi degen who just can’t seem to “get [his] shit together”.

I have previously suffered life catastrophes that wiped me out financially.  Unlike my recent loss, those were not my fault.  I have said that before.

What happened before is none of anybody’s business.  I will not give any hints.  But let’s put it this way:  If, in the hypothetical, I had been bankrupted by the medical expenses of a family member’s prolonged terminal illness, then you would not mistreat me as some “gambler”, and you would not dare to give me some outrageously condescending “get your shit together” lecture.

You have a tendency to take matters personally.

Largely I am referring to the concepts of how to invest, and when to invest and if you are just throwing out information to say that you have an amount of BTC such as 0.05 and asking me if you are over invested based on some of your other purported circumstances including that you are otherwise starving and other bullshit like that, then I have to outline various aspects of the starting parameter considerations.., then I have to cover the various principles in how we get to those kinds of considerations of what might be over invested and what might not.

Including that I already said that if you (or anyone else) do not have their shit together then I do not recommend investing into anything at all. If you tell me that  you have 0.05 BTC asking whether you are overinvested.. those are questions that deserve going over some basics, and we are i a public thread... so I responded to your comment in a way that are meant to be generally applicable to whatever lame information you give me and perhaps some extrapolation of some other matters that need to be considered.. you can take those ideas about how you get from one point to another and deciding what might be over invested for what they are worth.

If you do not want an answer that addresses your question, then why are you asking it.. why are you trying to trap me into an answer for some kind of conclusion that you should be able to make on your own?  And then you whine about my answer being too meanie.

 You seem to be asking for it, and then when you get it, you whine and say that I am patronizing you., but that is not the case, I am talking about basic principles that should apply to everyone who is considering any kinds of investments from my perspective.. and then surely some considerations might be specifically to BTC as well.  ..but if several times you are asking me what I consider to be overinvested or not..then you seem to be poking me wih a stick, no?
You provide some details and then you tell me that I failed/refused to account for some of the details that you did not provide.

Do you believe that you might be asking to receive comprehensive and potentially patronizing.. because what I am saying is that before you even  can arrive at  the more sophisticated conclusions about if you are potentially overly invested or not, you have to answer the more basic questions first.   Did you do all those basic things first.. including but not limited to getting your shit together first?

Also, did you figure out your emotional level first before asking me the questions.. because if you do not know that you are going to whine if I give various answers (basics) and patronizing approach that you do not like, then maybe you should not be asking me those kinds of questions that I believe to require basic considerations in order to address them, no?  You fuck.[edited out hahahaha]

It wasn’t that, but it was equally in the realm of tragic misfortunes that can befall anyone.  Newsflash:  Life is unfair.  I have learned to take that in stride.

I am not implying anything in my suggestion to start out with basics.  From my perspective, there is no way to get to the conclusion about whether over invested or not, unless figuring out the basics, first.

I will not say any more about my life, or what is really going on with me.  I have exposed too much already—for my own safety and privacy, I have exposed too much in a public forum.  It is anyway none of your business.  I am not asking for your advice, and I do not need your advice.

You asked me if I though that you were over invested or not... several times.

Suffice it to say that I consciously choose to be “overinvested” in Bitcoin, as a proportion of my assets.  Ever since I got deeply into Bitcoin, I have always made that choice—for principle, not for profit.  It is my choice to make, and I very well understand it.

Yes.. and the parameters upon which I consider what constitutes over invested or not and how to consider whether to get there or not seem to be different from yours.

By the way.. you seem to be trolling me with your continued ongoing nonsense question about whether you are overinvested.

No.  I have seen you tell people they were overinvested for keeping all their life savings in Bitcoin, without significant fiat, and without sufficient other investment assets.  Trolling you?

Yes.. some members proclaim that they are 100% in bitcoin or some other nonsense like that.  Sometimes we are framing the issue differently.,. but yes there are needs to consider the various individual circumstances that I had already outlined.. cashflow and expenses are a pretty major ones but of course they are not exclusive considerations, either...

In the post to which I hereby reply, you give some of your standard advice about starting at 1% to 25% of one’s portfolio.  That looks low to me.  Trolling you?

That has been about the past 18 months that I started recommending that. range. as a starting consideration to get the fuck off of zero.. it is a good start.. of course a whimpy person might choose towards the lower end, such as 1% and a more passionately bullish person might choose 25%.. of course there is some devils in the details in regards to various personal circumstances that might exist and upon studying the bitcoin matter, they might well choose to go outside of the initial recommended range they can go outside of that range. .it is just a starting consideration..

Between about late 2014 and mid-2020 - I had been recommending 1% to 10% as a starting range.. really to get the fuck off zero.. its a start, and individuals are totally responsible for their choices.. I just give my thoughts about staring investment parameters, and the increase reflects my thoughts that the investment case for bitcoin is quite a bit stronger now as compared with 2014.. and also as compared with happenings that many of us became more cognizant about after March 2020.

And it is a legitimate question how I can simultaneously be a “lowcoiner” with too little BTC to care about it, and also “overinvested” in BTC.

I already gave you my parameters.. figure it out.. I am getting less receptive to hear you whining about my giving you basics.

I know much more about finance than you presume.  

I am not presuming anything .. just trying to go based on some of the information that you had already given to me or otherwise  just making some of the ideas generally applicable.. especially if there happen to be quite a few gaps.  You should be thankful that I spent quite a bit of time to describe various parameters to help you to help yourself to figure out how I consider the idea of overinvested or not.

Any professional financial advisor in the world would tell me that with my current overall level of assets, I am drastically overinvested in Bitcoin.  Overinvested and overexposed.  I do not care.  That is my choice—a choice made consciously and intelligently.

I doubt that I have enough information to conclude exactly.. but I was still able to provide some basics in order to help you (and or others) to consider the concept of overinvested from my perspective.. especially if you had been asking me about what I considered to be overinvested.

It's starting to become clear that you really were not asking me about my perspective about what is over invested. Instead you just wanted to talk about how much you supposedly love bitcoin blah blah blah.. but I doubt that matters very much in terms of my own assessments regarding when to invest, how to invest.. or how much to invest or other considerations so yeah. we may well see some of these kinds of matters differently, and maybe some other members might have gotten some value out of aspects of my response and considerations regarding how to arrive at conclusions about being over invested or not.

Seems to me that there are no shortcuts outside of gambling.. and I do not recommend gambling..  

Gamblers’ intuitions are usually wrong.

Protip:  It is mathematically proved that for a certain described “red-and-black” model of a game of chance, the optimal strategy is “bold play”:  Bet as much as you need to for winning the whole gain you want in one shot, rather than attempting many smaller bets.  The result has been extended and adjusted to various game scenarios.  This paper has a good description, and a bibliography:

https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0412362

Needless to say, I do not recommend “bold play” gambling as investment advice.

Yes.. agreement on the idea of non-recommendation of gambling.  Easy-peasy.

In other words, there has been plenty of time to stack sats.. .. including the last year from the first correction down to $28.6k in May, June, July 2021..

Why do you even mention this?  Are you paying attention?

As of January 2022, I had plenty of Bitcoin.  Never enough, but a decently-sized chunk.

We are talking about current situation..anyhow .. I made my point already.

I did not buy in 2021 (except for my usual adjustments from altcoins), because I do not usually buy in bull markets!  I prefer to buy in bear markets.  Accordingly, I have always loved bear markets.

Just saying King daddy may or may not wait for you.  I said what I wanted to say on this point.

I missed the dip in July 2021, because I like to ignore the market.  That is my privilege, when my coins are safely in my wallet where they belong.

We are still in June 2022 last I checked.

POS diptwats have no power over me (or anyone else who wants to talk about stake in relation to their bitcoin investment strategies) or my use of the word stake in terms of its already existing parlance.

You have power over you use the word.

Yes... .I choose my words.

You are speaking to me as if BTC is a governance token which, on the basis of wealth, grants a club card for the privilege of expressing respectable opinions about Bitcoin.

No I am not.

 And you are leveraging that as a subtle type of ad hominem to discredit such of my other propositions as you find disagreeable, without addressing my arguments on their merits.[/b]

I doubt it.. I give less than two shits about POS.. I am talking about getting a fucking stake in bitcoin.. that is your choice if you believe that 0.05 BTC is enough... and really I give less than two shits about you specifically. .I am speaking to a general idea and a general idea for peeps to get a stake in BTC, and stop waiting around.. it is a general and ongoing theme that relates to getting off zero.. get started and all of that stuff related to how to accumulate BTC how to establish your investment budget... You can read it as personal all that you like, but I am talking generally about the need to get a stake in bitcoin and get started and all of those things about building up an accumulation target level and working towards fuck you status and all of those kind of personal goals, and if you do not want to get to fuck you status and you have other goals then that is your choice to have other goals.

Stop that nonsense.

Sounds like we are talking past each other because II have been making similarkind os points since my membership here began. .and  just refined some of the ways of talking about the points or the framing over the years.

I have known total degens who had >100x more BTC than I have ever had.  All they knew was greed and stupidity.

I have also known kind, intelligent people who gave far more to the Bitcoin community than I ever have—who wound up with less BTC than I had once upon a time.

You know as well as I do . bitcoin is for friends and enemies and there are all kinds of accumulation levels and allocations that people make and a lot of ways to deal with volatility too.  Their views about bitcoin as compared with other possible investments is only one part of the personal considerations that people should be accounting for.

Ultimately, ideas need to stand on their own merits.  If you disagree with me, and if your best argument is to call me a “low-coiner” because I just suffered a catastrophic near-wipeout, then that about sums up the credibility of your own arguments, and your ability to defend them.

What are we arguing about?  I did not know that we were arguing .  You think that I should not use the term stake because it sounds like proof of stake, and I said that it does not.. so I am going to continue to use the word stake because i consider it to be a good word to use to make my point when I have that kind of a point.  You think that i am picking on you because I have not expressed sufficient amount of empathy regarding your status, and I think that i am being nice enough because I was responding to your question about considerations about if you are over invested or not.. even though you really were not asking me about what I thought about your overinvested status because instead you wanted to describe how dedicated to bitcoin you are and have been and things like that.

(thus your trolling of the idea as well as your trolling me about some of your other dumb ideas related to proof of stake and also bitcoin as a stock and a few other dumb and/or misleading points that you continue to make.. a couple of your recent dumb ones related to gold supposedly being comparable to bitcoin, the 200-week moving average as being broken.,

[...]
why are you even talking about that shitcoin.. aka gold

If you think that the 200 WMA is not broken, then you are living in fantasyland.  And if you were to give investment advice based on it being a bottom, after it is broken, then that would be outright dishonest.

I don't give investment advise.. do whatever the fuck you want.

and dishonest is a strong claim in regards to whatever I was trying to do to help you and to respond to your seemingly disingenuine question in which you really did not want to know what I consider to be over invested..

As for gold, you are being deliberately obtuse in calling it a “shitcoin”.  Calling gold a “shitcoin” is not a serious argument; it tends to show that I am wasting my time in this discussion.

It is not part of this topic, and it is frequently brought up in this thread since I stared in this forum in early 2014.. more or less a shitcoin with various shills coming into this thread pumping that shit.

I have always considered gold and Bitcoin to be complementary; and I have always said that Bitcoiner arguments that deprecate gold are as ill-considered as goldbugs who deprecate Bitcoin.  But that is beside the point:  I was not talking about gold, but about Bitcoin.

Sounded like you were talking about gold to me.  but whatever.

You seem to have a problem with my arguing for Bitcoin’s fundamental value.  I don’t know why.  Do you hate Bitcoin?

You are really getting desperate.. for some reason.  Hard to treat you seriously when you ask such questions.

Reality does not give a hoot about your obsession with some lines on a chart:  In the long term, reality settles on fundamental value.  Now, I have gone “back to basics” and argued persuasively that the breaking of 200 WMA does not matter.  I have argued persuasively that in the long term, it does not matter how low Bitcoin now tumbles.

You have a right to believe whatever you like.

I think that is important:  Just a few days ago, I saw right here in WO some Bitcoiners get scared that were were deep under the magical 200 WMA line.  Scared.  Because we broke some meaningless lines on a chart:  The 200 WMA, the 2017 cycle top...  Oh, will you now tell me that the 2017 top was not now broken “because reasons”?  

There are always reasons.. it is not always easy to know while in the middle of matters.

Anyway, I think it’s important to tell people that these things do not matter.  Bitcoin still valuable.

Did I say that?

 Even if the bottom is not yet in (there is no guarantee that we’ve bottomed!), this little downturn will someday be a subject for laughter.  “Oh, do you remember when Bitcoin crashed so hard that it smashed all of the dumb TA bottoms?  Well, look at it now!”

I remember a variety of scenarios.. but your shifting all over the place makes it difficult to figure out what the topic is.. if any.

I have argued persuasively that Bitcoin, like gold, can survive very deep bear markets with no precedent in any TA juju.  Do you disagree?

You can argue that if you like.  I already said that I do not know when the bottom might be in.. it is way too early to tell.. about a month ago, I said that getting back above the 100-week moving average might be helpful to have confidence .. but we have had further down since then.  I will likely need to reconsider my considerations about when I believe that the bottom might be in, but there are a few resistance points on the way up and a variety of macro factors that may or may not affect BTC prices..  I do not make claims that go much beyond 50/50.. especially when it comes to short-term moves and I even make fewer claims about anything when we are in the midst of quite a bit of volatility. which we have been below the 200-week moving average for a week so far..

You can discount the various lines all that you like. but I am using those as reference points for the moment..   I am not going to start just making up new parameters just for the sake of it. ;and if I already have some frameworks in my head, I m not necessarily going to abandon them or to take on some other frameworks if I do not necessarily consider them to be very good comparison points. Having some bearings tends to be better for my own preparations or any changes that I might make to whatever I am doing.. if I make any changes.  I have made around 7 or 8 changes to my various BTC order parameters since around May 9th.. and some of that has to do with my own available cash. and various comfort levels and even the BTC price sooting beyond expectations in several ways.  I made a couple of mistakes too.. and then some of the changes would have been redundant to make up for some mistakes in my changes that I had made earlier... nothing really big but again trying to have some preparations for a variety of scenarios.. and then changing my mind about how I would rather deal with the possible variety of scenarios.

 Now that, in fact, many of your own TA beliefs have been thoroughly violated, do you believe that Bitcoin will die?

no

Your dismissal of my ideas as “dumb” rather applies a word that describes your reply here.

Your ideas are not only dumb.. but frequently they are emotional too... .. Yeah. sometimes I say dumb things too.. Once in a while.. Maybe three times in total?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Wow!  I am surprised that you received so many merits for such gobble-dey-gook, and I was going to send you an smerit my lil selfie just because I was glad to see you, but I could not bring myself to click on the send button after I read what you actually posted.

You are presented a false dichotomy.

You will note, Jay, that I did not send merit to Majormax’s post.  “Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), suchmoon (1)”.  None of these people sent merit to my post, which was strongly positive towards Bitcoin—only to his, which was negative towards Bitcoin.  Not that I care:  You brought it up, and it seems noteworthy in the context.

Instead, I wrote to Majormax a thoughtful reply in which I repudiated the concept of “HODL as an act of pure faith”.  I thought he misinterpreted my post—as you certainly misinterpreted it, Jay.  I was not hostile to Majormax; why should I be?  He replied to me; I replied to him; that’s public discourse:

It seems that my response to Majormax was somewhat meant to be within a context of previous interactions that I had with my accusations of Majormax's prior bearish tendencies. .and maybe even an implication that he continues with similar kinds of bearish tendencies..

Do we call this “digital gold”?  Well, let’s treat it as “like gold”!

Thereupon, I do NOT urge to “HODL as an act of pure faith”.  No way!

Some of my recent posts have mentioned refocusing on Bitcoin’s fundamental value.  In lieu of an in-depth exploration, here are a few points of cold realism, not “pure faith”:

At that point, I briefly described three reasons that Bitcoin has fundamental value.  I noted that this was only a summary, and the list could be continued.

Others tend to appreciate my descriptions of Bitcoin’s value.

Reviewing recent posts on this thread, insofar as I can see, Jay, it looks to me that you are now picking a fight with me because (a) I value gold, and I compare Bitcoin favourably to gold; (b)

I did not consider myself picking any fight with you.

I don’t buy TA, never really did, and now honestly declare broken lines broken instead of retreating to a Reality Distortion Field; (c) Majormax sent me a merit.

That shows some poor judgment on your part, as well as a flawed ability to analyze these issues.

Poor judgement because why?

I am not in any kind of a competition, am I?

[Arriemoller]

Nevermind, found it 15:30 - 22:00 Swedish time.

[ImThour]

Petition to get JJG and death_wish to discuss and sort their stuff in their DMs.

+1 merit to agree, +10 merit to disagree.

Starts now.

[OutOfMemory]

Hmmm...