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Poll
Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26966838 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
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June 29, 2022, 01:43:43 AM

some peeps simply don't have time for a 20 year long bear market.
besides, 260/850 or more properly 260/650 (because gold was above $650 flat top only for about 7 days) is JUST 69.5 or 60% correction (with at least two bear rallies to ~77% of the flat peak, an equivalent of about 53K in btc). Super long bear with multiple 2X rallies is preferable to 80% down in just half a year (well, we only went -70% so far, to be more precise).

institutional involvement did not pan out as a value stabilizer; this, at least, is clear.
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June 29, 2022, 02:01:21 AM


Explanation
Torque
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June 29, 2022, 02:03:21 AM
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https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
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June 29, 2022, 02:10:46 AM

"The stimmy checks created such a boon in spending!"

"The economy is strong!"

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

(Focus the graph in between 2020 and now)

 Roll Eyes
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June 29, 2022, 02:11:40 AM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.

One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.

I did not really feel comfortable with presuming that the bottom is in either, but our current bottom of $17,593 on June 18 is still a pretty damned low low, and about 21% below the 200-week moving average at that time.  The 200-week moving average continues to move up $20-ish per day, so yeah still bouncing below the 200-week moving average but recovered (for now) from the low)...

The current BTC price placement is showing some level of calamity for our current predicament, but we cannot really tell if the whole severity of the predicament is already priced in or not... so many naked swimmers have already been exposed.. but I am still thinking that there might be some more naked swimmers that need to be exposed, and it's not the cute ones either....

I surely would prefer for the bottom to be in.. at least reck a few shorts before going down further - but if it is really difficult to know which is the easier path forward and whether enough reckless folks have received their proper and sufficient reckening.  There are a lot of overly leveraged folks out there, and we should be able to imagine some potential easy pickings so long as the BTC price can be kept down for a wee bit longer.. I hate to say it.. I hate to say it...

Regarding your comment about storage of value.. that is nearly pure nonsense and I heard that there were some peeps that just want to jump through their computers to batslappening you for that comment.  In other words, zoom out ur lil selfie a wee bit.

Almost every little 'shithead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.

One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.

The fact that there will only ever be 21 million makes this pretty much a forgone conclusion that over time BTC is and will be a store of value

That's what I be talken about... even though you said it first.    Wink Wink

[Edited out]

Roughly steps into the dedicated astro camera area would cost me between $2k and $10k, depending on quality. Not the amount i'm used to throw at my hobbies too often.

Chump-change.

A mere 0.1BTC to 0.5BTC... are we talking ant quantities of monies, here?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Almost every little 'shithead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.

One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.

The fact that there will only ever be 21 million makes this pretty much a forgone conclusion that over time BTC is and will be a store of value

it could be, eventually, but it does not feel this way if you consider the period since late 2017.


Get rid of your feelings.  Such feelings are not correct.  You will thank me later (or at least you should)

No value stored vs inflation whatsoever, objectively. A negative 20% (vs inflation) vs gold's +25% vs inflation, and I dislike gold.
imho, the involvement of financial institutions 'messed' bitcoin up, albeit maybe only temporarily.

Yes.. it is ONLY temporary.

Snap out of it.


If financial types could pledge bitcoin en masse (and they did), then the 'store of value' and "clean collateral" stories could be affected.

Yes.. you can spin it.. if you are failing refusing to see what is actually happening.. which is the largest wealth transfer in history.. and at the same time passing through a few speed bumbenings along the way.

TL;DR a new 'story' for bitcoin is needed (or it could be the "old" story of the medium of exchange). The 'store of value' story is in deep hibernation for now.

No new story is needed.

If you want to believe some baloney spin or some dumbass view of the facts, then you are free to fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UPpity.  

Gresham's law is still going to continue to cause monetized values to flow into bitcoin, and you can choose not to participate or to underparticipate at your own peril.  Yeah, of course, there are no guarantees, but it seems to be one of the strongest and most widely available asymmetric bets that ever existed staring at uie pooie in front of your face, and it is up to you whether to act upon such information in terms of being early to the club or just to deny what you are seeing (or fail to see it).

Aside:  What retard ignored the message on the “report to moderator” page, and reported a fair shot I took at Biodom’s nonsense?  My post broke no forum rules, generally—let alone WO special rules.  The image source was linked on Wikimedia, as seen in the archive.  Not asking if a few of the staff here have exceedingly poor judgment.  Asking which retard thinks it’s funny to report WO posts that don’t break any rules.

I agree.. that post seemed to have had been a fair pokening for fun... and even arguably artsie fartsie in some kind of way.
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June 29, 2022, 02:31:48 AM

some peeps simply don't have time for a 20 year long bear market.

To be clear:  I am not expecting a 20-year bear market for Bitcoin!  That was a reductio ad absurdum to show that when corrupt politics and irrational markets are involved, even gold can take a hell of a beating.  Historical worst-case extremes.  My point:  It doesn’t mean that gold isn’t a sound store of value.

Nothing is risk-free:  Not Bitcoin, not gold, assuredly not dollars.  Long-term buy-and-hold for anything is a trade-off.  Spend the time value of money sitting on your capital, and embrace long-term systemic risks, to avoid short-term risks and market irrationality.

I think that anyone who sold gold low was a fool—mindrusting gold!  On a related note, I positively predict that in the long term, starting with almost nothing now, I will probably wind up with more BTC than most of the people who are worried now.

besides, 260/850 or more properly 260/650 (because gold was above $650 flat top only for about 7 days) is JUST 69.5 or 60% correction (with at least two bear rallies to ~77% of the flat peak, an equivalent of about 53K in btc). Super long bear with multiple 2X rallies is preferable to 80% down in just half a year (well, we only went -70% so far, to be more precise).

Bitcoin has always been orders of magnitude more volatile than gold.  When Bitcoin was up, this made some thoughtless Bitcoiners sneer at gold:  Look, our gains are so high while gold almost sits still!  Now, the shoe is on the other foot.  Now that Bitcoin is down, gold’s % performance in extreme gold bear markets looks great.  I don’t think that either line of thinking is justified:  My proposition is that Bitcoin and gold are complementary assets—both good, both necessary, with some very different strengths.

BTC probably has much more upside now, due to being such a young market!  Big long-term growth potential.  BTC also has the practical advantages of being less difficult to obtain anonymously—and of being oh so much easier to store in your own self-custody.

Aside, I find it amusing that two classes of people usually like to sneer at gold:  Some (not all) Bitcoiners, and Warren Buffet.  Not only Buffet.  When the gold market bottomed around 21 years ago, a stock-market professional of my then-acquaintance told me that gold was a bad investment.  Hahahah.  I didn’t believe him then, and I don’t believe the naysayers about Bitcoin now.

institutional involvement did not pan out as a value stabilizer; this, at least, is clear.

With the possible exception of a few particular investors, institutional money was never Bitcoin’s friend.  My theory, hereto stated somewhere (not searching now), is that to sustain the onslaught of highly-capitalized institutions who treat BTC merely as an instrument for extracting fiat profits, Bitcoin needs more adoption as money (both s.o.v. and medium of exchange).  It is not a new opinion on my part—not at all.

Some of the types who are greedy for fast moons get excited about institutional investment, without really thinking this through.  I generally see institutional investment as a challenge that Bitcoin must survive and master, just as it has prevailed in the face of other challenges.


For the record, my current personal text:
Quote
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
The problem with institutional investors is that they account PnL in USD (or EUR, ...).  Thus whenever they successfully gain profits instead of losing, they extract capital from BTC rather than giving BTC healthy long-term growth.
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June 29, 2022, 03:01:26 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2022, 04:01:20 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2022, 04:34:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Voted YES in the new poll about reaching the bottom.

Also, I don't think the 200-Week MA is "dead". Not yet anyway. Just visit the link, or see the attached screenshot. It has been crossed, but only barely, which has happened a few times in the past. If the price picks up from here, it will just be another deep blue dot touching the 200-WMA on the chart. It all depends on where the price goes next. And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.

JMHO.

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June 29, 2022, 04:56:28 AM
Last edit: June 29, 2022, 05:07:51 AM by JayJuanGee

My proposition is that Bitcoin and gold are complementary assets—both good, both necessary, with some very different strengths.

I'll start out by stating that my proposition is: Fuck gold.  It's a shitcoin.  Stop talking about shitcoins here.

My alternate proposition is consider various assets in terms of "what you going to do about it?"

What is your allocation to gold? Is your allocation to gold the same as bitcoin?  or is the investment thesis for gold a fraction of bitcoin's investment thesis?  Such as 10% or maybe more realistically 1% or 2%?

Consider the whole matter regarding how much to invest into gold in context..

I am not completely opposed to investing in gold as a hedge, but if you really consider the matter, bitcoin serves the purposes of gold and like 1,000x better than gold, and therefore, Gold should have an allocation in your investment portfolio that is only a fraction of bitcoin's 1% to 10% the size of your bitcoin's allocation at most.. I personally chose 0% into gold, but I could understand some gold bugs or some gold nutjobs wanting to go a wee bit higher.. but still settle down gold bugs (and gold nutjobs), your investment into gold thesis has been replaced/supplanted by a better asset (aka king daddy), and if you want to stick with investing into your funzie lil tingilies - with the sparkles (aka gold), then no more than 1% to 10% the size of your BTC investment is permissible (by yours truly) to be invested in that crap.

Here's approximately how my various allocations in various assets have changed through time (from since I got into bitcoin until present..    These are approximate.. and might even be partially (or totally) fictional.. you fucks).

Late 2013  (just starting to get into bitcoin - BTFC prices $1,100 -ish  - immediately pre-bitcoin)
BTC           Stocks               Bonds (fixed/govt)                      Property               Business                Gold (Pms)             Cash       Hybrid Income generating funds      other

0%              17%                   6%                                              5%                      5%                          0%                         6%                      59%                                        2%

Late 2014   (nearly met my bitcoin allocation target - which was intended to be 10% - bitcoin prices downwardly sloped all of 2014)  
9.5%            13%                   5%                                             4.5%                  4.5%                        0%                         4.5%                    57%                                        2%

Late 2015   (over-allocated into bitcoin by about 3.5% more than intended BTC prices - in low territories mostly around $250 for most of 2015)
13.5%           12%                   4%                                            4.25%                   4.25%                    0%                         4%                       56.5%                                    1.5%

Late 2017  (my first bitcoin pump up to $20k-ish - bitcoin grew a lot and other allocations grew less)
80%               2%                   0.25%                                        0.25%                   0.25%                    0%                         3%                       14.2%                                    .05%

Late 2018  (my first major bitcoin crash down to $3,124-ish - bitcoin values crashed but not as far as my late 2015 allocation)  
42%              6%                   1.25%                                         1.25%                   1.25%                    0%                         2%                       45.75%                                    .5%

Late 2021  (my second bitcoin pump up to $69k-ish - bitcoin grew a lot and other allocations grew less)
89%              1%                   0.125%                                     0.125%                   0.125%                    0%                         3%                       6.62%                                    .05%

mid 2022   (my second major bitcoin crash down to $17,593-ish - bitcoin values crashed but not as far as my late 2018 crash, so far)  
63%              2%                   0.5%                                          0.5%                      0.5%                       0%                         1%                       22.35%                                   .15%
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June 29, 2022, 05:03:27 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2022, 05:03:44 AM

Global inflation rates:

🇺🇸 - 8.6%
🇪🇸 - 8.7%
🇳🇱 - 8.8%
🇬🇧 - 9.1%
🇧🇷 - 11.7%
🇵🇱 - 13.9%
🇷🇺 - 17.1%
🇦🇷 - 60.7%
🇹🇷 - 73.5%
🇻🇪 - 167%

Bitcoin is the escape hatch.

JUST IN: "We need decentralized money. Bitcoin ends MMT" - U.S. Senate Candidate Bryan Solstin 🇺🇸

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1541897612894298113
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June 29, 2022, 05:04:46 AM

And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.

That is exactly my point!*  Much more succinctly stated.

When I declare that the 200 WMA is “dead”, I mean that it’s dead as a predictor of the Bitcoin Bottom.  And that’s a good thing.  I don’t think that’s bearish, but to the contrary:  I repudiate the bearishness of everyone who is worried about being below 200 WMA, who is worried that we have had our worst-ever non-flash-crash break of 200 WMA, and who is worried that we broke 200 WMA and broke the previous cycle top.  (The latter has never happened before—not even close!)

I am well aware that Bitcoin has previously dipped below 200 WMA.  I have discussed this in prior posts.  The current break is much worse overall, and the deep dip cannot be excluded as a very brief outlier like the March 2020 panic-crash.  My prior posts discussed this at some length.  Previous breaks could be rationalized with some squinting and fuzz-factor.  Not this.

Excessive reliance on TA causes panic when these magical lines fail.  Observe that some allegedly strong-hands HODLers went nuts here 11 days ago, gripped by fear and disbelief at $18k and below.  They were not newbies, but LTH and WO veterans who have been through multiple previous bear cycles.  Magical TA lines backfire.

The single most reliable strong-hands HODLer whom I personally know has never ascribed any special predictive significance to 200 WMA.  I now understand that that is not a coincidence!

I see this as an opportunity to refocus on Bitcoin’s fundamental value.  “Past performance does not guarantee future results.”  Only long-term value fundamentals can guide rational expectations of long-term future results.


* I myself previously believed in 200 WMA, but only as a Schelling point:  A self-fulfilling prophecy of a Bitcoin Bottom, from both the bid side and the ask side.  In that sense, I did expect it to have some high-level intelligence—or maybe, high-level human unintelligence.  My theory was empirically wrong.  When my theories are empirically wrong, I adjust to reality rather than attempting to distort reality to fit my theory.
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June 29, 2022, 05:32:39 AM
Merited by Husires (3)

BTC/USDT Liquidation Chart

On the right are the shorts, and on the left are the longs.
Exchanges move prices to f*ck these retailers.


https://thekingfisher.io/
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June 29, 2022, 05:33:57 AM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 04:34:08 PM by cygan
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Grin Grin


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June 29, 2022, 06:03:33 AM


Explanation
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June 29, 2022, 07:00:57 AM

* death_wish prepares to smack Buddy.
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June 29, 2022, 07:02:49 AM

Traditional markets weighing on the price again I see. We’re definitely on the Fed train here and price probably won’t turn around for good until they do as well. The halving is probably the only other thing that would turn the price around, but that ain’t happening for a while.

I know some are excited about an ETF, but if it’s Grayscale that gets approved I would expect heavy outflows from their fund in this market.
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June 29, 2022, 07:09:29 AM

* death_wish prepares to smack Buddy.

It looks like I scared poor Buddy away.  Not for the first time:  My posts also apparently scared him away once a few pages ago.

(For the record:  At the moment I posted that, my ticker observed $19,911.)
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June 29, 2022, 07:24:48 AM
Last edit: June 29, 2022, 09:21:18 AM by OutOfMemory
Merited by JayJuanGee (3)


 The image is 4.36 megs and you're limited to 2.5 - that's the problem.  I changed the compression to 73% so there's no way it will look as awesome as it should... people should follow your link instead.


Damn, OOM! Learn the bitcointalk basics and fucking remember them, will you!?  Angry


My wife thought we were playing another game of "Wall Observer where am I?"  Smiley


Hey, i got a starry sky pic including a nearby foreground, so if i publish the datetime (UTC+0) with it, one may be able to find out the rough location through maths and science.
Maybe proudhon can help?  Cheesy

Much obliged... my new setup thanks to you!



Looks nice! I should provide you a new version of the first (left screen) photo, which is somewhat poorly color corrected, compared to the second one (right screen).
EDIT: Aaaw, shit. The other way round. The right screen was the first shot  Roll Eyes
Mumbles to self: Not a good start into the day, OOM...

EDIT2: That Berhringer WING completely went by unnoticed. I like.


Awesome pic.
So many stars!

I wonder if all (or almost all) of these are empty worlds. Seems like a waste of space, but on the other hand, where is "magic" in the sky?
Certainly, there is nothing out there that "looks" like like an advanced civilization of Kardashev scale >2.0
Normally, a civilization that is growing at 3% a year in energy consumption, should reach type 1 (from current 0.73) in 100-200 years, type 2 in a few thousand years and type 3 in a 100K-million years.

Not all stars appeared at the same time. In fact there are many stars in the Milky way that are billions of years older than our Sun.

If it takes "only" about a million years for a tech civilization to reach type 3 (with projects on the galaxy size) and there were MANY stars older than Sun.
In fact, one paper suggests that an average star with a habitable zone is 3.3bil years OLDER than our Sun.

The sad conclusion is that NO ONE has made it to be past stage 2 (at least).
References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1509/1509.02832.pdf

Interesting facts, though.
I truly wonder how long it would take to actually unite mankind in peacefulness to make these types of tech civilization only virtually possible. Always have to think about "Idicracy" when looking at the state of civilization and where we're possibly going to...

As of "so many stars"... On this image i even smoothed about 20-30% of the more faint and smaller bright objects to clear it up and emphasize the h-Alpha (about 660 nanometer wavelength, mainly the red parts) emitting nebula. After only a couple of tries and processing sessions the results improved quite well, so far. I should really remaster the older shots to look even better. It's kinda funny after years of "image editing" to switch to "light data processing". And best of all are the hours you spend watching the nighr to the sound of hundreds of crickets and the camera periodically opening/closing the shutter.

Our oh-so-big, modern, advanced existence is not even a ladies fart in the timespace of the universe  Cool

[Edited out]

Roughly steps into the dedicated astro camera area would cost me between $2k and $10k, depending on quality. Not the amount i'm used to throw at my hobbies too often.

Chump-change.

A mere 0.1BTC to 0.5BTC... are we talking ant quantities of monies, here?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Good that you pointed that out. I came short about the details, so far, let's elaborate  Smiley
My personal fear&greed index is at 100 now. Surviving the post 2017 bear market (and you WO dudes, ok.. most of you) taught me how to turn into a (healthy) toxic maxi, and if you remember, i'm hodling most corn for my children. I'm altruistic in a way that makes me able to live a minimalistic live (relatively spoken, owning photography gear in the ranges of $10k+), but i learned to consume less and still enjoy life. In my teens, my mum threw me out, so i learned to live with my bare hands in my pockets, and i totally abandoned pride, which i will be ever thankful for. Do YOU hear me EXPHorizon? You can do it too, without the fucking begging
I financed the expansion of the family house, using bitcoin in the 2019/20 bull, so my spendable budget is used up, and i chose to wait for bullish times again until i cash out a part of what i'm putting into BTC in the usual lump sum manner, which keeps me from spending my fiat on other things.

As of the setup, i promised to go into detail here as well...
I got a tracking mount (travel mount) which carries about 10 pounds of gear, and still tracks the stars well with up to 200m focal length, until weight gets an issue. 300mm+ optics are either  heavy or dark and thus need a lot of working hours to produce adequate zoom-in quality results. It's wise to load the mount with only 50% of max weight, so i'm bound to this range for now. Then there's resolution and noise, the two main power-edge criterions of image clarity. Astro cameras are cooled, sport a high signal-to-noise ratio with four times higher resolution. The pixels on the sensor are a lot smaller. These things "see more" than my DSLR camera, even more so in the monochrome CCD variants, which need many stacked shots with different color/wavelength filtering to produce remotely comparable color pictures to NASA's works. And there's big sensor sizes driving the price barriers upwards significantly.
This includes higher grade optics, which introduce weight, which cries for accuracy and stability measures. Heavier tripods, bigger mounts, small secondary scopes tracking a singe star, parallel to the main scope/camera setup, controlled by software running on a decent laptop suited for cold/humid environment.
If i had $50k to spend mindlessly on this, it would take me only about an hour in multiple online shops. Sure, i'd like to, since i compulsively dive into this "hobby" like i've done regarding all my hobbies before, but i have to start somewhere without sacrifying my corn at this state of market.
Maybe it's an obsession, but it's certainly a good one. At least i hope so  Cheesy We are all good liars when it comes to lie to ourselves, though.

Most of my current camera lenses enable me to catch decent results with the modified DSLR and realtively low effort. The good thing is that i have a lot to learn on processing light data, so it would be a waste of time and money to set up new gear at a higher level now. Until then i'm bound to live the Bitcoin Gollum life, taking care of my precious treasure. But there will be times when i move into some thousands of dollars to step up the astro game. It would be foolish to do it right now, in more than one way, you see? And then, finally, i will easily exchange that 0.01 - 0.001 of Bitcoin to suit the monetary needs of upgrading.
Sure, there's a second-hand market for gear, but those astrographers take so much care about their stuff, the advantage in price is little.
I would so much more want to rent an observatory to work in on certain nights, but that's not possible in "locational nearby" terms. Imagine $million tech at your fingertips, for a fraction of the money and no need to put up/put down/stow away things, just get inside, turn up the heating, power up the gear, get calibrating and going for very distant spots of the observable universe's faintest of objects. Real beuty.

If Russia and all don't get too desperate in near time, we gonna spend some years and decades here on the forum, so you will see improving results over time, accompanied by tech debate revealing mind boggling facts about space, time and the universe  Grin

* death_wish prepares to smack Buddy.

It looks like I scared poor Buddy away.  Not for the first time:  My posts also apparently scared him away once a few pages ago.

(For the record:  At the moment I posted that, my ticker observed $19,911.)

Half of serious CT calling for down-before-up once again. I doubt slapping Buddy helps, as some rumors told about FTX being mainly responsible for pump&dump in favor of fiat gains. Selfish pricks are fatal when they use their (market) power. I can understand Bankman-Fried living the YOLO life, but with size comes responsibility, so i have been taught at least...

EDIT: I would really like to know Satoshi's remarks about what's up nowadays.

Grin Grin



"One Buck" would be better suited, and i'm not a racist, by the way  Tongue  Cheesy
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