Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cygan]

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[death_wish]

Gambler’s Fallacy

Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.

I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate.  I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

Don’t forget that Bitcoin’s mining algorithm is a giant lottery—and that on the flipside, many Provably Fair crypto-casinos use SHA2 to roll virtual dice.  Waving hands over some important technical differences, it is useful to keep that in mind.

In practice, although they are discrete and not continuous processes, games of chance that pick winners based on a uniform distribution can be usefully modelled as Poisson processes.  Wins accordingly have a statistically “expected” arrival time based on the average of an exponential distribution—just like Bitcoin’s 10-minute target for blocktimes, a targeted average calculated over numerous blocks.

By this model, the “fastest” quartile of wins feels so lucky that it gets gamblers excited—just like how 25% of Bitcoin blocks arrive within 173 seconds.  The median is much faster than the average, which means that fully half of all games feel luckier than they really are.  Tell me, how many times have you exclaimed, “Wow, I am so lucky—the confirmation of my tx was much faster than I expected!”?

The “slowest” quartile of wins then drains the gamblers’ funds as they keep playing, believing themselves “due” for a win.  Those are the blocks that seem to take forever, as you are awaiting confirmation.  That long tail is long, indeed!

The exponential distribution plays games with your head.  It defies and exploits human intuitions in almost every possible way.  It is a dice site’s best friend.

Maybe some stats textbooks say the same thing.  Maybe not.  I figured this out myself, many moons ago.

* death_wish loves the exponential distribution.

[Hamza2424]

I think there is some problem

With the Internet.
It Happens to me as well sometimes

On this post i will preffer this one

[eXPHorizon]

Ill tell you what they doin with it...


Buffing up..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

I am waiting for the BTC price to go below $1,000..

Proof:  “JayJuanGee” is proudhon’s alt.

=

Quote ridiculously cherry-picked, for comedic effect.  For the record, my sarcasm meter pegged here.

FTFY

[somac.]

Upside down world:

• BTC keeps going lower even in the face of ridiculous fiat inflation
• Fiat inflation is supposedly Putin's fault even though the west printed ridiculous sums of fiat out of thin air for years.
• The G7 / NATO and its silent allies actively want to have a cold war
• Ursula von der Lies joins the G7 even though she doesn't represent a country and no citizen was able to vote for her and they continue to talk about how we must
  impose democracy on Russia
• You vote conservative in your country and you keep getting bashed with ridiculous green policies and increased taxes
• Clowns and demented imbeciles are our leaders
• Propaganda media outlets keep bashing Russia whose leader talks far more sense than any of our pathetic clowns
• The Russian ruble keeps strengthening despite suicide sanctions and restrictions. All other currencies against the dollar are deflating even faster than the dollar itself.
• Western leaders promote economic migrants even though there is supposedly no space for us already (see increased taxes) and fuels illegal people trafficking. immigration has been sold as a virtue signalling option to supposedly help the poor in other countries. The reality is the real poor in those countries can never escape. Only the strongest and usually they are young men.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #1: Farmers need to close their business as they are too polluting. The entire country was founded on farming!
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #2: You will soon have to pay for driving each kilometre, even if you drive abroad. Who in their right mind thinks that's fair AND you will still need to get an EV no doubt.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #3: You will need to install a heat pump because gas is simply too polluting even though much of the Dutch economy was built on using and exporting gas.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #4: The leader literally said "Ukraine's war is our war." even though citizens firmly rejected closer association with Ukraine in a referendum years ago.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #5: Gas and everything is too polluting and citizens will have to pay but in a general sense because of the sanctions on importing Russian gas and the evil Adolf Putin burning coal will be fine if required.
• The general consensus appears to be carry on and just do more of the same of the failed policies.
• The CIA appears to be in control of the USA and in fact much of the western world. Puppets in the form of diaper Biden and Kameltoe Harris appear to be so incredibly stupid, pathetic with race baiting and ultimately hypocritical, this bad leader joke thing is just sad to watch for me. Boris Johnson is no better.

Unbelievable.

 

I think the western world is collapsing quicker then we think. Our political institutions and even non political have been taken over by cultists and they are distributing the cool aid as we speak. If things don't change course soon, drawingup a personal escape plan within the nnext year might be a very prudent thing to do.

[ImThour]

Bitcoin has dropped the highest % in June since 2013. 🩸
Just realized, it's the highest % of drop in a single month since 2013.

[vapourminer]

* death_wish prepares to beat Buddy with a horsewhip.

never work.  hes an ai; his electrons will just laugh at you. an electric cattle prod other the other hand..


buddy we dont want to see you hurt. stop resisting. go UP

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

I did a small buy this morning.

May get some more by monday.

69 to 19 is a good sale.

[vapourminer]

How we all doing?

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

you?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Don't worry folks about BTC going down. I just received this in my in box.

Dear Binancian,
 
Binance has partnered with Khaby Lame, the Italian Senegalese creator who grew to fame through his viral TikTok videos, to join as a global brand ambassador. As the blockchain ecosystem behind the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance will partner with Khaby to increase Web3 awareness and adoption.  

Just look at the photo. This man clearly triggers confidence in all financial matters. Just the professional look on his face for me instantly lowers my current anxiety and I have to conclude: "Yep we are all going to be alright, absolutely!".



We are all rescued!

THIS is EXACTLY what I was waiting on.


 

[Richy_T]

How did Craig frame the matter?

I forget the details but Peter Rizun asked how long (on average) the next block would be if the last one was n minutes ago and he answered with the 10-n option. That had a lot of CSW supporters illustrate the mental gymnastics they were willing to go through.

[Richy_T]

If Buddy makes you sad, look on the bright side:  Perhaps in the long run, a really awful-more-awfuller crash right now could be good for Bitcoin.  Perhaps, perhaps...  #justsaying

Nah, that's "Why inflation is good for us" levels of cope. These crashes may be necessary but they don't really help much.

[Hhampuz]

@BitcoinBunny,

I think it's a smart move by Binance, not sure if you know about this guy Khaby, tiktok or influencers in general but.. If it works it works and getting some tech savvy banker-turned-coiner guy to be the face and try and attract youth likely won't have the same reach. In the end adoption is the game, no? Signing big influencers (I saw they recently took on Ronaldo as well), will surely help along the way.

[Richy_T]

One of the best ones yet.

[cAPSLOCK]

I do not really care that much about Nic Carter.  He is obviously a brilliant mind, and someone who has made a shit ton of money investing in things... calls himself a "VC" now.  Almost certainly has some Patagonia gear.

Bitcoin does not care.  And *I* care even less.

Leave it to me to contradict myself within hours...

But it also proves the rest of my post which I cut up there... but the point was Bitcoin doesn't care.  And it doesn't...  But another thing this has made me want to say... This is the weirdest bear market so far...

I am having fun!  I really am.

[modrobert]

Upside down world:

• BTC keeps going lower even in the face of ridiculous fiat inflation
• Fiat inflation is supposedly Putin's fault even though the west printed ridiculous sums of fiat out of thin air for years.
• The G7 / NATO and its silent allies actively want to have a cold war
• Ursula von der Lies joins the G7 even though she doesn't represent a country and no citizen was able to vote for her and they continue to talk about how we must
  impose democracy on Russia
• You vote conservative in your country and you keep getting bashed with ridiculous green policies and increased taxes
• Clowns and demented imbeciles are our leaders
• Propaganda media outlets keep bashing Russia whose leader talks far more sense than any of our pathetic clowns
• The Russian ruble keeps strengthening despite suicide sanctions and restrictions. All other currencies against the dollar are deflating even faster than the dollar itself.
• Western leaders promote economic migrants even though there is supposedly no space for us already (see increased taxes) and fuels illegal people trafficking. immigration has been sold as a virtue signalling option to supposedly help the poor in other countries. The reality is the real poor in those countries can never escape. Only the strongest and usually they are young men.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #1: Farmers need to close their business as they are too polluting. The entire country was founded on farming!
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #2: You will soon have to pay for driving each kilometre, even if you drive abroad. Who in their right mind thinks that's fair AND you will still need to get an EV no doubt.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #3: You will need to install a heat pump because gas is simply too polluting even though much of the Dutch economy was built on using and exporting gas.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #4: The leader literally said "Ukraine's war is our war." even though citizens firmly rejected closer association with Ukraine in a referendum years ago.
• Upside down policy example Netherlands #5: Gas and everything is too polluting and citizens will have to pay but in a general sense because of the sanctions on importing Russian gas and the evil Adolf Putin burning coal will be fine if required.
• The general consensus appears to be carry on and just do more of the same of the failed policies.
• The CIA appears to be in control of the USA and in fact much of the western world. Puppets in the form of diaper Biden and Kameltoe Harris appear to be so incredibly stupid, pathetic with race baiting and ultimately hypocritical, this bad leader joke thing is just sad to watch for me. Boris Johnson is no better.

Unbelievable.

 

I think the western world is collapsing quicker then we think. Our political institutions and even non political have been taken over by cultists and they are distributing the cool aid as we speak. If things don't change course soon, drawingup a personal escape plan within the nnext year might be a very prudent thing to do.

Yes, smells like the insanity leading up to something really bad... Best case; class war. Worst case; world war.

[Hamza2424]

Hope
So
Everyone is enjoying
and you already made wishings to close ones
Accept it from Fleeings a bit late but it's ok.

I was watching BTC going below 20k understood people making gifts to Friends