Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542473062385389569?s=20&t=bZRKcQCPXEpVpolM09V6MQ

[1714248355]

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[1714248355]

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1714248355

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Also Samsung are making mining chips.


That is Samsung


of....


SA (samsung)


TOSHI (Toshiba)



NAK (Nakamichi/Nokia?)


MOTO (Motorola)


heh heh.... in jest, however, Samsung news is legit

[teramit]

How we all doing?

waiting 12k

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542473062385389569?s=20&t=bZRKcQCPXEpVpolM09V6MQ

If get this right, this news is misleading.
They actually said the holdings should be capped:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/banks-bitcoin-holdings-should-be-capped-basel-committee-proposes/


If someone wanna read the full (I didn't)
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d533.pdf

[Paashaas]

call me shocked  

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/sec-rejects-grayscales-spot-bitcoin-etf-application/

Grayscale has already sued (backed by solicitor general Don Verrilli, one of the leading appellate litigators) the SEC. Similar what happened in Canada few years ago, 3iQ recieved world's first Bitcoin ETF afterwards.

Not saying it will be the same in the U.S.

Meanwhile, another new spot Bitcoin ETF has launched in Switzerland yesturday..

New spot Bitcoin ETF launches at Euronext Amsterdam Exchange.

"Our product is the first spot or physical-backed Bitcoin fund, and the fund is not allowed to lend, stake or leverage any of the assets it owns. For the first time in Europe, investors buying an exchange-traded Bitcoin product will own the units that own the Bitcoin," Khurshid said. "There are other exchange-traded products in Europe but no other spot BTC ETF," he added.

A spokesperson for Euronext confirmed that BCOIN will be the first spot Bitcoin ETF ever listed on Euronext. "This will be the first Bitcoin ETF on Euronext, or the first fund directly investing in Bitcoin. All other currently existing products on our segment are exchange-traded notes, or legally structured as debt instruments," he said in a statement. While the ETF will arrive in July, Euronext did not provide a specific date for the launch.

[empowering]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542473062385389569?s=20&t=bZRKcQCPXEpVpolM09V6MQ

If get this right, this news is misleading.
They actually said the holdings should be capped:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/banks-bitcoin-holdings-should-be-capped-basel-committee-proposes/


If someone wanna read the full (I didn't)
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d533.pdf

It is more to do with capital requirements from what I gather, rather than over all holdings. (edit, actually perhaps there is a cap on overall holdings too, will take a closer read bit later)


(either way, this is progress of sorts.....there have been barriers/regulatory ambiguity in place to allow large tradfi funds to participate fully, which are being slowly overcome and the players they are targeting with this, are YUGE.  Also, some of this, is actually potentially targeting future treatment of stable coins too..)

(undecided on if this is good or not tbh) 

[cAPSLOCK]

I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottomed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?

I hope you are right...  I guess the part I am not seeing is the sort of action that makes this look like something other than just a big bear flag.  The DOWN was violent, but the UP has not been.   Yet.

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".

[cAPSLOCK]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

[bitcoinPsycho]

Bottom,fish,banana 🍌

[cAPSLOCK]

I wonder how much SBF is willing to risk on private bailouts that create future moral hazard.

I don’t hate him the same way that some here do.  I recognize that he is very smart.  I tend to have a certain respect for smart people.

Just saying that if he overextends himself—a hell of a question mark—then his attempt to buy future moral hazard may be a self-solving problem.  He does not have the ability of a government to create unlimited money out of thin air, then let the burden fall on the people through taxation, inflation, and the kind of unbounded debt that happens when debtors can pass laws raising their own credit limits.  Billionaires with MIT degrees can get rekt, too!

In 2008, I said that “too big to fail” needs to fail fast and hard—no matter what short-term pain may result.  Because the alternative is unlimited long-term pain.  In 2022, should I say differently here?  It is now patently obvious that numerous corrupt billionaires laid land mines throughout our market.  Now, they bring “The Times 03/Jan/2009” into Bitcoinland.  Insofar as I can see, the only way to clean up that mess is to let the mines detonate—right in their faces.

If Buddy makes you sad, look on the bright side:  Perhaps in the long run, a really awful-more-awfuller crash right now could be good for Bitcoin.  Perhaps, perhaps...  #justsaying

Despite my flamboyant, over the top yalping about him, I do not hate him either.  And agree he is smart.  But he is a fool.  Smart fools are dangerous.

[empowering]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

...death spiral ?

[cAPSLOCK]

Gambler’s Fallacy
Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.

It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

I feel like multiple things are being said...  But if you do not add assumptions to the end of the statement: "Every 10 minutes" then it stands on it's own.  Or maybe it stands for me BECAUSE of the assumptions, I assume we are all making ( )

1.  It is not exact.  I believe the average is a little below 10, since hash power has been being added all along. , But not sure.
2.  It is a Poisson distribution so it's ALWAYS 10 minutes.  Which means, yes, it might be 4 hours this time and at 3:50 in we were right finally!

Is the point you are making that saying it is 10m is wrong because it almost never actually IS 10m?

(I cut out 2009 since it was crazy-pants)

I am assuming when we say 10m we are all also understanding that it is a distribution that is always aiming for somewhere near that number... not that it IS that number.   That sort of contradiction is part of the beauty of it in my opinion.  

I like seeing 3 blocks come right on top of each other within the span of seconds... And I feel kind of twitchy when it's been over an hour since the last one.  These feelings come from the same part of my lizard brain that stops and looks at the roulette board in the casino that shows that the ball has landed on black 8 times in a row and tempts me to put money on red.

My lizard brain probably saves me from about as much trouble as it gets me in...  that's the basis IT revolves around.

[cAPSLOCK]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

...death spiral ?

That's great!!! Have you checked for the .com .org and .net?

Or wait... do you mean that dude that posts those long long things here recently?

[ImThour]

If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?

[Gambit2s]

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".

Another weekend another slide.



YAAAAAY!

[empowering]

....appeals will no doubt be made, it might be at this stage, that certain...... issues, may be raised by defence

....yup

I wonder what happens next

yup


https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/20242592.ghislaine-maxwells-lawyers-appeal/


(moving along at a clip)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542473062385389569?s=20&t=bZRKcQCPXEpVpolM09V6MQ

If get this right, this news is misleading.
They actually said the holdings should be capped:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/banks-bitcoin-holdings-should-be-capped-basel-committee-proposes/


If someone wanna read the full (I didn't)
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d533.pdf

It is more to do with capital requirements from what I gather, rather than over all holdings. (edit, actually perhaps there is a cap on overall holdings too, will take a closer read bit later)


(either way, this is progress of sorts.....there have been barriers/regulatory ambiguity in place to allow large tradfi funds to participate fully, which are being slowly overcome and the players they are targeting with this, are YUGE.  Also, some of this, is actually potentially targeting future treatment of stable coins too..)

(undecided on if this is good or not tbh) 

I agree

[gallianooo]

I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.