Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

@jjg..."Therefore, you have not addressed the issue.  $100 per week budget starting from January 2014.  When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts?  What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014? "

Of course, if you are starting from essentially zero, then you invest the part of the cashflow.
However I was mostly talking about a hypothetical person who already have some capital and is willing to spend at least a significant portion of it.
In the latter case, as @bitebis had posted, LS always beats DCA, no ifs and buts.

Therefore, for those who have nothing, a way of doing it would be to raise a chunk of money first (however, it had better be done maybe 3-6 mo ago), then invest that in one go ( onr 1/3 per mo) and THEN DCA.
However, that's just me and my approach.
Anything is better than staying at zero, you got that part right.

IMHO, however, people would tend to favor bitcoin when investing a "chunk" while the same people may waste money on itty-bitty "long shots" instead if investing in small increments (similar to lottery tickets).
One reason is purely psychological because you only get 0.004 btc for $100 while they consider getting 7 mil of some dog-related s-coin as "it's more units, man", which is completely erroneous, of course.
I would never do it, but people do it left and right.
Spending 5-25K at once (LS) gives you a more "tangible" amount of bitcoin and removes the distraction of the low value s-coins.
Sure, there could be a gambler who spends $5-25K on a s-coin, but I assume that those are a very small minority.

Someone I know, LS (100k+) in October 2021 - $62K.... lots of "ifs" and "buts" here!

Besides why are we ignoring the elephant in the room (or maybe it has been mentioned, but i am too tired to find it)...

Saylor/MicroStrategy, we would all agree he had LS into bitcoin right? $4,027,052,651 between 11th August 2020 and 27th December 2022 for a final total of 132,500BTC

If he had Weekly DCA, 125Weeks @ $32,216,421.21/Week would have yielded, 153,738BTC

Again, lots of "ifs" and "buts" here!

EDIT: other DCA calculators are showing 186,451BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

@jjg..."Therefore, you have not addressed the issue.  $100 per week budget starting from January 2014.  When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts?  What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014? "

Of course, if you are starting from essentially zero, then you invest the part of the cashflow.
However I was mostly talking about a hypothetical person who already have some capital and is willing to spend at least a significant portion of it.
In the latter case, as @bitebis had posted, LS always beats DCA, no ifs and buts.

Therefore, for those who have nothing, a way of doing it would be to raise a chunk of money first (however, it had better be done maybe 3-6 mo ago), then invest that in one go ( onr 1/3 per mo) and THEN DCA.
However, that's just me and my approach.
Anything is better than staying at zero, you got that part right.

IMHO, however, people would tend to favor bitcoin when investing a "chunk" while the same people may waste money on itty-bitty "long shots" instead if investing in small increments (similar to lottery tickets).
One reason is purely psychological because you only get 0.004 btc for $100 while they consider getting 7 mil of some dog-related s-coin as "it's more units, man", which is completely erroneous, of course.
I would never do it, but people do it left and right.
Spending 5-25K at once (LS) gives you a more "tangible" amount of bitcoin and removes the distraction of the low value s-coins.
Sure, there could be a gambler who spends $5-25K on a s-coin, but I assume that those are a very small minority.

Someone I know, LS (100k+) in October 2021 - $62K.... lots of "ifs" and "buts" here!

Besides why are we ignoring the elephant in the room (or maybe it has been mentioned, but i am too tired to find it)...

Saylor/MicroStrategy, we would all agree he had LS into bitcoin right? $4,027,052,651 between 11th August 2020 and 27th December 2022 for a final total of 132,500BTC

If he had Weekly DCA, 125Weeks @ $32,216,421.21/Week would have yielded, 153,738BTC

Again, lots of "ifs" and "buts" here!

EDIT: other DCA calculators are showing 186,451BTC.

With all due respect, you are just engaging in anecdote comparisons.
Look at the graphs and read the text in the original post here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg61777181#msg61777181

Your friend and Michael Saylor are just current exceptions (small % of all scenarios).
However, when btc trades at 250K, your friend would be sitting pretty vs small DCAers in between.
Same for M. Saylor, however, it is a special case since he went overboard (with loans) close to the top.
IF he only made that initial purchase at 17K, he would be in-the-money already.

[hisslyness]

With all due respect, you are just engaging in anecdote comparisons.
Look at the graphs and read the text in the original post here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg61777181#msg61777181

Your friend and Michael Saylor are just current exceptions (small % of all scenarios).
However, when btc trades at 250K, your friend would be sitting pretty vs small DCAers in between.
Same for M. Saylor, however, it is a special case ince he went overboard (with loans) close to the top.
IF he only made that initial purchase at 17K, he would be in-the-money already.

Not at all mate, that is real life example, from both extreme ends of the scale. Just confirms my original statement, people tend to buy high not low!

As for my friend, he would be sitting "prettier", if he DCA instead of LS!... and i know he isn't the only exception... it is a larger than you may realize, people may be too embarrassed to let you know they bought in to high and too much!

and i also like how you are using the word "IF" now... Hindsight is 20/20

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[BountyProgram]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1626574172439674883

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Helena Yu]

Chilling with my own baked Bitcoin egg pie

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign.  The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%

However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

Chilling with my own baked Bitcoin egg pie

That looks amazing! Great job, Helena!

@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.

@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:

"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term.
The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."

You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.

Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct.
"Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump sum.
I did it myself a couple times in the oughts.
In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.

I feel like this is going to throw shade on other similiar strategies and I do not like it. The "study" was based entirely on a DCA type based on buying on a fixed time interval with a fixed sum. The other types of DCA were not even considered.

Buying each dip is a completely different kind of DCA which was not discussed here.

Although I am not sure if Value Averaging can be considered a DCA, technically, lets be clear that VA > DCA. Obviously this type is not a risk-spreading DCA as the one being discussed but rather a profit maximization strategy using a continuous income source, which is infinitely more important.

Also the risk of losing all your money in an investment with LS is something that should be considered. With DCA at least you will have some money left in your pocket if your investment goes belly up.

The study is flawed because it equates prices before mass adoption and after. Unless you have a way of predicting early unicorn investments, only the time scale from 2018 onwards should be considered, as the market cap shows this is when the mass adoption of Bitcoin really began. The prices were at 8-10k.