@jjg...you are posting pure nonsense.
@bitebits reference analyzed ALL scenarios and the conclusion is there:
"LS consistently outperforms DCA across all time periods, short term and long term.
The longer the time period, the more LS tends to outperform DCA."
You can't fight the math...but, of course, you will.
Hiding behind "normies" having no money, etc etc does not mean that what you peddle is correct.
"Normies" have money, and if they don't, they could even borrow some against some property if they want to get a lump some.
I did it myself a couple times in the oughts.
In fact, we both know that my LS strategy vastly outperfomed your DCA.
I stand by my points.
You are not making any new points, and you are also refusing to actually either work with the actual hypothetical that's in front of us (which is the $100 per week income starting from January 2014) or to provide specifics regarding at which point in time extra lump sum dollar amounts would be available (at the beginning of the investment period or at various points in the middle).
You are also failing/refusing to deal with my already concession that the more sophisticated that you are (or the more time that you have to study the matter), then the more likely you can tweak to improve upon a strict DCA approach by employing lump sum buying and or buying on dips.
In other words, you seem to be making up your own bullshit, attributing false issues to me and then saying: "lookie, lookie, I am the winner" blah blah blah.. It's not that I don't even like you, but you surely are not grappling with the actual employment of a system or attempting to make fair, reasonable and practical comparative applications with anything more than vague innuendos.. with some kind of seeming maniacal obsession of wanting to be right no matter what.. .
I'll keep repeating this, the average person/normies/whatever you want to call them will never #BTFD! they will buy at #ATH without hesitation, so LS will never work for them!
and i am sure for ever LS that has done better than DCA in terms of accumulating Bitcoin, i can show you the opposite!
However, we are all missing one critical point here!.. As long and both DCA and LS gets people into accumulating Bitcoin, then i am all for it!
I am not against any of the accumulation strategies to get normies in the door, so in that sense I have been given a bad rap (and mischaracterized as if I ONLY give any shits about DCA - even though I proclaim that DCA is the best of the strategies to get normie newbies started.. otherwise they won't.. otherwise they will panic.. otherwise they will buy at the top and sell at the bottom).
So part of my point is that DCA (or some variations of DCA) allows normie newbies to also invest way more aggressively over a long period of time, as compared to someone who is some what scared about how to time the market and ONLY ends up buying one time in 2015 and waits for his (more or less 20) coins to go up to $10 million each, and if he had been DCA'ing all along, he would have probably bought way more coins and he also probably would have spent way more money per coin.. but in the long run, he is better off because he spent $47k and got around 45 BTC rather than spending ONLY about $6k and getting 20 BTC or perhaps spending $20k and getting 30 BTC.
There are a lot of variations of how the comparisons of the whimpy versus the more persistent investor could play out for sure, but part of my attempted point remains that an ongoing DCA'ing strategy helps someone (normie newbie) to pay attention, learn along the way and perhaps begin to supplement his/her ongoing BTC accumulation strategy with buy on dips and various lump sum buys as s/he gets more comfortable... I am not all or nothing into DCA, even though I consider it to be amongst the best (if not the best) of starting strategies for normie newbies.
@jjg..."Therefore, you have not addressed the issue. $100 per week budget starting from January 2014. When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts? What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014? "
Of course, if you are starting from essentially zero, then you invest the part of the cashflow.
However I was mostly talking about a hypothetical person who already have some capital and is willing to spend at least a significant portion of it.
In the latter case, as @bitebis had posted, LS almost always beats DCA, no ifs and buts.
Part of the problem is that you continue to fail/refuse to even attempt to make realistic apples to apples comparisons.. just like that article did too.
I started to respond with specifics, but it seems like a fucking waste of time, and you just want to presume your conclusion and to act as if a DCA system is just inferior for a newbie normie.. so why continue to waste time on this.. you can believe what you like with your selective pie in the sky renditions..
Therefore, for those who have nothing, a way of doing it would be to raise a chunk of money first (however, it had better be done maybe 3-6 mo ago), then invest that in one go (or 1/3 per mo for three months) and THEN DCA.
There's no reason to raise money first.
Yeah, get your finances in order, but most people already have some ballpark idea about their budget whether their income exceeds their expenses and whether they can afford $100 per week or if they might ONLY be able to afford $10 week until figuring out their finances and psychology.
However, that's just me and my approach.
Anything is better than staying at zero, you got that part right.
Maybe we should hug?
IMHO, however, people would tend to favor bitcoin when investing a "chunk" while the same people may waste money on itty-bitty "long shots" instead if investing in small increments (similar to lottery tickets).
Why not both?
One reason is purely psychological because you only get 0.004 btc for $100 while they consider getting 7 mil of some dog-related s-coin as "it's more units, man", which is completely erroneous, of course.
We are not even talking about buying shitcoins. Focus. If you started buying in January 2014, between January 2014 and late 2016, you would have gotten anywhere between 0.1 BTC and even close to 0.5 BTC for $100, depending on when you bought... so if there were 306 weeks during that period, you could have spent weekly or you could have tried to be strategic about saving up for certain points in time to buy your chunks. Once you establish some BTC you are likely in a better place than merely waiting.. but hey if you want to wait, then all the more power to you. After the fact, you can see where the better buying opportunities were between 2014 and 2016, but in the whole scheme of things, if you did the vast majority of your investing during that time, is it going to really make a whole hell of a lot of difference if your average per BTC was $300 versus if it was $1k per BTC, and maybe you got a lower average per BTC, but does not necessarily mean that you were as aggressive in your BTC buying... so maybe you end up with 20-25BTC that you got on average for less than $500, but the guy with 40-50 BTC may well be better off, even if he ended up paying close to $1k per BTC...
actually I just looked it up, and DCAing between
January 2014 and December 2014, still gives you less than $400 per BTC... are you going to beat that with lump summing?. invest $15,700, get 40 BTC.. You think that your lumpsumming is going to beat that? and still allow you to be as aggressive, persistent and steadfast? I doubt it.. that's why you ONLY got 20 BTC during that period, even though you ONLY spent $6k, too.. but are you better off with that approach? Maybe for you, but what about a generally applicable approach?
I would never do it, but people do it left and right.
Spending 5-25K at once (LS) gives you a more "tangible" amount of bitcoin and removes the distraction of the low value s-coins.
Sure, there could be a gambler who spends $5-25K on a s-coin, but I assume that those are a very small minority.
Sounds like you are arguing backwards to me. Between January 2014 and December 2016 how many times would you have made those lump sum investments into BTC rather than DCAing throughout that period? Once per year? and when specifically? how do you know? how do you make a general applicable principle/system for normies that is even fucking close to DCA? Yeah, any of us can get a wee of a bit of an inclination for when a dip is happening or when the BTC price is going up, but we still have hardly no fucking clue about if the dip is going to stop dipping or if the Uppity is going to reverse.. so that leaves us back with the dilemas regarding when exactly and how much and DCA provides some answers to that which relates to the Nike slogan.. "just do it!!!" something like that.
Poll
