f off buddy where is our 26k for the day
We are in the midst of a short-term bull run in the current Bitcoin market. It is not possible to say exactly when the bull run will end.Bitcoin market may reach 30K. And if it touches 26 in a few days there is definitely a possibility of 30. How long this bull run will last is not reported by any specific news.
Maybe don't get too worked up about "short term" but yeah, the BTC price has Largely been going UPpity since the beginning of the year, so we got in the ballpark of a 60% price appreciation. that might even take us further.. maybe more than 3x from the $15,479 bottom.
Or even (
dare I say it) 3.5x by the end of the year remains possible. Though have been saying this since $20K last year
At some point, I would dare to say that we are in a "bull market"... however, we are barely dancing with the 200-week moving average currently.. so I am not really quite sure if I am confident enough to presume that either the bottom is in or the bear market is over... How much UP do we need? Hey? I don't know.
But I recall in early 2019, the BTC price moved from 4.2k to $13.88k in a matter of three months, and about half way through that (or maybe less than half way through that), I was willing to start to presume that our earlier bear market was over and the bull market had begun.
Likewise, while the initial +20% move to $5K was "interesting", I was still expecting $6.5K previous
accumulation distribution zone to act as new resistance. It was only when we cleared that I felt more confident that the bottom was in, so basically once half of the move had already happened. If I had to make an equivalent to current prices, I'd say it's getting back above $30K (and staying there) for good confirmation. Not because it'd be 2x from lows similar to 2019, that's purely coincidental, but because it was a previous support level like $6.5K with a reasonable amount of accumulation turned distribution.
In reality, breaking $25K is merely the likely confirmation needed (higher high) for a re-test of $30K. But doesn't mean it will break first time nor bear market truly over. I'm still very conscious that in 2015 price went up 2x then consolidated between around $150 and $300 for over a year. So I wouldn't rule out rejection from $30K and returning to $15K by the end of the year in a similar manner. I see either another parabolic move to $50K or $15K again tbh. I should be more open minded by something in-between, like $35K to $40K "fair price" prior to a re-test of $25K or similar, but I simply don't buy it yet. It's what most are expecting.
It's also too rational for my liking and suits the masses, whereas Bitcoin's price is a lot more irrational, especially when the trend reverses.
In hindsight, the 200 Week MA has only ever been useful after a parabolic blow-off top within a 4 year cycle. It's the "return to the norm" you could say. Without that, I'd argue it doesn't serve much purpose apart from telling you what 4 years-ish of DCA would achieve. Also as a reminder, it didn't serve as support on the way down, nor resistance when reclaimed, so will it really act as resistance this time around?
Personally I'd say the resistance is simply $25K. It's breaking the double top structure that is currently in play with a higher high. 200 Week MA is simply noise right now imo.
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