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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26402610 times)
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JayJuanGee
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March 03, 2023, 07:34:46 PM

It would seem that Bitcoin is, once again, dying. I don't know if it can make it this time.  Undecided

Mindrust?  Is that uie-pooie?

Maybe you should try an 80x bet just to distinguish ur lil selfie as the positive thinker who you really are.. (deep down on the insides)?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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March 03, 2023, 07:36:13 PM

OT:

I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing.

This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity”

Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion.

Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?



https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/
OutOfMemory
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March 03, 2023, 07:59:26 PM


+1 WOsMerit


...


frankly... I'm only about 70% sure that your post is not meant sarcastically ...



...

(2). I wouldn't credit a WOsMerit if i didn't mean it, would i?

...

And I didn't know what to make of the fact that you wrote about sending a sMerit but did not actually send any...

1 WOsMerit is a virtual sMerit i don't have (yet) but will send in the future, probably. (I actually did)

Quote
Other things you might not know:

I am rarely aware of things i don't come across regularly, because of my fucked up Working Memory. This excludes facts and things i had learned before my Chronic Fatigue adventure, which started back in 2010 after a viral infection. It's a strange way to live through the days, being smart and intelligent but not able to hold information effectively in memory, which i was also very good at, before 2010. I come around slightly dumb to most "normal" people i personally deal with daily, which i find pretty ironic, but still - there is no irony.
Imagine trying to call out your neighbor's name to get his attention, but you can't remember it, because it is stored somewhere in your brain, but not accessible at the moment you need it. It's unreliable storage and retrieval of information in Longterm Memory, hard to explain how it "feels" like, so i use examples to make interested people better understand.
There are some Supps that help, but sustainable cure is yet to be found.

OT:

Speaking of Supps, i found some interesting Amino-acid lately: c, which is derived from green tea, works remarkably well at dosage of 100mg daily.
WO brothers suffering from mood swings, anxiety, problems to keep focus and feeling stressed out or unrelaxed should more than just benefit from that stuff.
L-Theanine is the active component found in green tea, but the Caffeine contained in the tea is elevating restlessness and alertness, pushing heart rate and thus working like an antagonist to L-Theanine effects.
I have read that it really helps peeps suffering from anxiety of all sorts, who also don't want to take these emotionally flattening antidepressants (SSRI).
A few days of taking that shit and it started to work a charm for my focusing problems. It also got noticeably harder to get me upset and/or angry.
#NOMEDICALADVICE


That's interesting.  I experience similar memorizing problems, although maybe not as intense.  

It's actually right on the edge, so that I can accept not being able to remember certain stuff at certain moments.  

I almost tend to feel that there is a reason that my brain does not dig out the stuff I want it to.  That reason being actual importance.

I wonder, maybe it just knows better than me what info I really need.  And I somewhat came to trust my brain to some extend in that regard.  (Trusting it to save the right resources)

For example, I have hard times remembering peoples names, but I came to the understanding that names are just not that important, when you are interested in a person's inside instead.  

On the contrary I rarely ever forget faces.  I can recognize individuals in the street with whom I had the last contact over 10-20 years ago.  And I can approach them and say hi.  For me that is far more important than to remember their name.

So I started to trust my brain a bit more that it put its resources where it seems appropriate.

And thanks for the Theanine info.  I guess I will drink more green tea again.  Was a big fan but got lazy having to prepare it.
Btw there are some studies about coconut oil preventing Alzheimers.  Maybe it's good for memory in general.


The difference is that if you really want to memorize, and it doesn't go well but it went well some time before, it means some trouble.
There are many possible causes, like my wife being pregnant five times, giving birth four times, she was just under-nutritioned. Vitamins brought her brainpower back up.
In my case it was heavy brain-fog first, and the memorization problems seem to be the remains.

But if you remember faces much better than words and sounds, melodies... I'd suggest you're just the more visual type of thinker in general. If you often use terms like "i saw  that coming", "i can see what you mean", "look, i'll exlain it to you", "let's see" etc. it would give a strong hint you are experiencing this life more visually than auditive or sensitive (kinesthetic).
I also can't remember numbers well anymore by listening, but if i have the time to look at them and try memorize the pattern of it on a keypad, i can remember it better.
Age also plays a role. After 24, your cell reproduction slows down, slowly, until things start to get ugly at 80+

As of green Tea, if you want to keep most of the good stuff, boil the water to no more than 70°C and soak it for at least 5 minutes. I can recommend "Benfuki", which is low in Caffeine.
Coconut Oil, i love ir. But i have bad luck and i don't tolerate it well, it gives me quite some stomach ache  Sad Seems to be related to my Fructose Malabsorption.

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March 03, 2023, 08:01:17 PM


Explanation
OutOfMemory
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March 03, 2023, 08:02:30 PM



Bart will help us

Obviously a (bear-) traB  Cheesy

EDIT: I'm out for today. The skies are clear, i cleaned the correction lenses of my favourite telescope, time to go combat the nearly full moon. May post OT images soon...
#GN
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March 03, 2023, 08:22:51 PM

This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign.  The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%
Unfortunately 26K wasn't even endangered once and now we have some bearish signs. This changes quite a bit the probabilities. I must add also that I have in mind Skew which makes probability predictions for some futures exchanges.

Also, I have to say that many times in Bitcoin's history predictions with less than a 1% probability came to reality. Check out this diagram made in early 2019 when the price was about 4K.

The chances for reaching 10K in June were very slim, but it happened anyway and we even were close to 14K! Can Bitcoin do a similar feat again in 2023? We shall see. As a ratio from the bottom however, we are at 1.43, which translated to 2019 would be 4.4K. Personally, I find it a bit worriesome that we are having such a strong resistance at 25K, with a still existing danger of invalidating the Jan-Feb bull run. So, I guess now the odds for the top until the end of June are:
>48K        - 1%
41K - 48K - 4%
31K - 40K - 10%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 50%
But everything can change instantly if we break the resistance 25-26K or there is some major good news.

Wow.  I am o.k. with your analysis, but you surely come off as a bit of a scared puppy.. to be wanting to compound one negative scenario after another and seemingly want to overly pee pare ur lil selfie for both downity and less likely scenarios... and I know that you are not presenting downity scenarios, but you are showing that you want to reduce your UPpity numbers in quite extreme ways because why?  Scaredy cat?  hahahahahaaha

Sure there is no problem in terms of being prepared for worser case scenarios, but still problematic to have the worser case scenarios as a kind of base case.

But whatever, you do you if you want to keep a decent amount of fiat (just in case sub $10k comes.. and I know that you are not really saying that), when you probably should be spending more time not putting so much efforts into mindpower, energies and likely finances into such negative scenarios.. and sure such downity scenarios still might happen, but still... I am just saying what is my impression.. even though I do appreciate that you are assigning somewhat realistic variables to UP.. .

And, even on a personal level, I have trouble figuring out how to assign up versus down and also putting a timeline on such assignments because I have a hard time concluding that we are out of the bear market until getting significantly above the 200-week moving average, and I am not even sure how to contemplate such variation of scenarios without us actually getting above the 200-week moving average an staying above it, which has not really happened in any kind of signifiant and meaningful way in the last 9 months... so yeah, BTC prices between the 200-week moving average and the 100-week moving average for a while would at least be helpful for me to start to think that maybe we are out of the bearmarket... so anyhow, I better stop, since the more I type, the more I am starting to consider that your numbers might be reasonable, even though my first impression is to call you a scaredy-cat who seems to want to jump negatively at any sign that UPpity might not be continuing in the short term... and then in recent times, especially the last year or so, you seem to overly assign negative long term ramifications to that.

I gotta pace myself... a self-directed mandate
I do not like this version of JayJuanGee Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Personally, I have always been quite fond of "self-directed" mandates.  But, hey maybe that's just me?  I get kind of stubborn sometimes, especially when I look at how self-directedly irresponsible I was during various times in that period... and some of that self-directed stubborness had gotten me into various pickles... and showing some of the various risk-loving aspects of my character that are not as pronounced (and least in terms of how to treat the corpus - meat wagon) in these days in contrast to the senses of immortality that existed during younger times, relatively speaking. #justsaying.

[edited out]
Those charts a big part of your life?

Do you really think they help you calculate what will happen next?

Or are they a way to cope because "the future is not ours to see Que Sera Sera"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

Oh gawd Philip.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You might need to consider using some charts yourself.. maybe you might be able to learn a wee bit in that seemingly ongoing stubborn noggen of yours.. hahahahaha no homo.. , so that you might be better able to assign probabilities to various possible scenarios rather than to get all worked up on one angle versus another and then seeming to ongoingly misallocate resources in accordance with your getting caught up into those wrong and even foolish angles of analysis.

I am not even suggesting that I agree with dragonvslinus in a majority of cases (actually, I am not sure how much I agree with him, but I recall that I used to disagree with him a lot more when he used to be more bearish.. but either he has come around or I have come around.. I am not sure?), and sometimes, I do consider that he is putting too much weight into aspects of the predictive capabilities of his charts (and likely limitations in regards to what could happen) based on such charting techniques.
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March 03, 2023, 08:57:10 PM
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[edited out]
Those charts a big part of your life?

Do you really think they help you calculate what will happen next?

Or are they a way to cope because "the future is not ours to see Que Sera Sera"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc
I am not even suggesting that I agree with dragonvslinus in a majority of cases (actually, I am not sure how much I agree with him, but I recall that I used to disagree with him a lot more when he used to be more bearish.. but either he has come around or I have come around.. I am not sure?), and sometimes, I do consider that he is putting too much weight into aspects of the predictive capabilities of his charts (and likely limitations in regards to what could happen) based on such charting techniques.

Yeh for clarity I was a lot more bearish once Bitcoin broken below $18K to $15.5K, after initially thinking the bottom was likely in with initial capitulation to $17.5K, as well as had little to no conviction that price would hold $15.5K, as instead thought $12K or $14K was looking more likely. Took me a couple of months to be convinced that it was possible after enough consolidation, then was bullish again with the break above around $19K. I'm never been one for being accurate on bear market bottoms to be honest, as all the technicals are always screaming bearish, I'm better on trend changes as the technicals are a lot more obvious. The irony being that during those 200-ish days a DCA average would have been around $19.5K, whereas $20K dip buying and $19K break-out got me the same price, with less effort, while being completely wrong. Just saying.

Anyway, my theories of where price could next, whether back down to $20K or upto $30K shouldn't really be considered limitations just my perceived likelihoods. For sure we could double bottom at $15K (especially since we've seen a local double top), or otherwise continue onto $30K. It's purely my belief in the likelihoods/probabilities or these scenarios, which I find relatively low right now.  Probably the key point here is that I'm able to change my perception on bullish/bearish based on price change/action, unlike many others who are fixated on only one reality or the other, unable to change opinion etc.
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March 03, 2023, 09:02:11 PM


Explanation
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March 03, 2023, 09:06:07 PM

I feel charts for stocks are basically no different.

Bitcoin no is not a stock.

Helrow?

Just to let you know, just in case you missed that aspect in regards to dee king daddy, aka cornz, aka my lil precious, aka honey badgener.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

As soon as we had some positive news and positive direction we get hit by more negative news and the price looks like it could slip below $20000 again. I do not look at charts because I do not know how to read them and I think most of it is guessing from the speculato5rs but what caused us to slip down further after getting above $25000?

The punchline is that dee cornz cannot go up forever without having some meaningful corrections along the way, even if we might have some flukes from time to time in which the UPpity does not stop no matter what.. and even those fluke UPpities do not tend to last more than a few months, at best, when they do occur... and those fluke uppities are far from guaranteed from occurring, even though sometimes the bears and the various status quo downity cheerers do end up overplaying their hands and contributing to the likelihood that we are going to continue to experience those kinds of fluke and irrational and crazy uppity periods in the future... just don't gamble upon when you think that they might happen, because then you may well end up getting fucked (or in polite terms, reckt.. and ain't no body got time for dat, right?).   Wink
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March 03, 2023, 09:14:52 PM


Haha no no….. I actually have had a pretty lose single year atm and just found myself a new girl as very recently
 Grin Grin

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March 03, 2023, 09:16:18 PM
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OT:

I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing.

This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity”

Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion.

Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?



https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/

yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500?
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March 03, 2023, 09:35:45 PM

OT:

I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing.

This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity”

Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion.

Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?



https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/

yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500?

Bingo!

Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is.
What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years?
A bit scary.
philipma1957
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March 03, 2023, 09:42:43 PM
Last edit: March 03, 2023, 09:54:04 PM by philipma1957

OT:

I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing.

This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity”

Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion.

Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?



https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/

yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500?

Bingo!

Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is.
What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years?
A bit scary.


I have so many questions.

Is it more like a camera recording live? ie is the subject staring at the image while the MRI is on.

Is there a time delay? Ie look at image for 1 minute look at blank white screen for 1 minute or for that matter try a free screen a blue screen a yellow one. Then test with the MRI


I can picture that you need a reset image so you can't be read. So you paint an image on your hand look at it to reset your brain.


Still very impressive tech. 1 step closer to the matrix. (if we are not there as of now)




Buddy v Phil

buddy = 17
Phil    =  18

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March 03, 2023, 09:54:19 PM

Blah blah
Why so hostile? If more people are innovating with cryptocurrency it means that more people are going to adopt it. I do not think that Europe or USA are the leaders in innovation I guess you are from a western country and listen to what the news wants you to think. Asian countries have done a lot of innovation and their economies are growing because of the innovation.

Oh? eXPHorizon still posting here?

@Macadonian, thanks for quoting him  Angry
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March 03, 2023, 09:59:44 PM

Blah blah
Why so hostile? If more people are innovating with cryptocurrency it means that more people are going to adopt it. I do not think that Europe or USA are the leaders in innovation I guess you are from a western country and listen to what the news wants you to think. Asian countries have done a lot of innovation and their economies are growing because of the innovation.

Oh? eXPHorizon still posting here?

@Macadonian, thanks for quoting him  Angry

yeah he is  on my ignore it is alway tough when he gets a quote or two.


Buddy v Phil

buddy = 18
Phil    =  19
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March 03, 2023, 10:01:15 PM


Explanation
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March 03, 2023, 10:02:52 PM
Last edit: March 03, 2023, 11:24:54 PM by philipma1957

buddy is racking up deuces I think we get some weekend dip 21.5k maybe better.






Buddy v Phil

buddy = 19
Phil    =  20

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March 03, 2023, 10:41:47 PM



Who says that BTC price drops are not good news for some Cheesy

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March 03, 2023, 10:43:50 PM
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Still very impressive tech. 1 step closer to the matrix.

In matrix people were used as batteries. In reality, we're not very good for that.

I want off this ride.

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March 03, 2023, 10:46:51 PM

OT:

I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing.

This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity”

Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion.

Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?



https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/

yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500?

Bingo!

Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is.
What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years?
A bit scary.


I have so many questions.

Is it more like a camera recording live? ie is the subject staring at the image while the MRI is on.

Is there a time delay? Ie look at image for 1 minute look at blank white screen for 1 minute or for that matter try a free screen a blue screen a yellow one. Then test with the MRI


I can picture that you need a reset image so you can't be read. So you paint an image on your hand look at it to reset your brain.


Still very impressive tech. 1 step closer to the matrix. (if we are not there as of now)




Buddy v Phil

buddy = 17
Phil    =  18



here is more info about the method:
https://the-decoder.com/stable-diffusion-can-visualize-human-thoughts-from-mri-data/

beware: site wants to know your location and wants to set lots of cookies, which could be declined.
combine that with this:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/next-step-surveillance-ai-finding-133038020.html
and it gets pretty orwellian

in 5 -10 years you enter the store and store's AI already knows what you want and jacks the price 10% "just for you"....albeit it already exists in the lo-tech world: painters, roofers, plumbers, etc set up the price partially on what they percieve you are worth, judging by your home/habitat. The more expensive it looks, the higher is the price of the same work...just a fact.
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