Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

@JJG...sooner or later...developers would have to address concerns like mine.
Some others state that the loss rate is maybe even 4% a year now, which is kind of high (https://blog.trezor.io/what-happens-to-lost-bitcoin-71eb5a80cc74).
I think that it is inevitable that some solution would be advanced (once we find out the actual rate of loss).
Could some solutions cause a fork? Hopefully not, but we shall see.

However I see most of bitcoiners solidly supporting the idea of no more than 21 mil btc, but maybe not the idea of a constant decrease in that number (or what is actually available).
To me, personally, the idea of supply shriveling to a few bitcoins and then dealing with fractions of satoshi to buy houses sounds positively Kafkaesque.
EDIT: btw, that hisslyness post you fondly refer to does not 'work' if we lose a set number of bitcoins per year (around 286K or 1.36% of the whole supply). He actually made a distinction between 75 years (in his calculation) counting as a fixed number lost/year OR 1231 years if a fixed % of current supply is lost for a year. I was talking about the former, but it flew over your head somehow. Sometimes you just need to read stuff more carefully.

I doubt that the specifics of the calculation really matter very much, and you may well be correct that I did not get too much into the details of your bad maths and your bad sciences because even if hissleness might not have said it very well, if there is anything like a 1% to 4% per year shrinkage in the bitcoin supply, then that is going to cause upwards price pressures that are higher than what we might have already considered - absent some of the effects of the various paper bitcoin.. .. and surely in the end, he also made the point that if there is high loss of bitcoin, then likely people are going to become more inspired to take more careful precautions not to be losing their cornz. .since they are likely going to be going up in value at a higher rate based on the combination of lowering of the new issued supplies (with the reduction of the halvenings shrinking the new issuance to zero) combined with ongoing losses of coins that could be of varying rates, and even if we might get down to having ONLY 1 coin in a few hundred years, then the BTC price will likely adapt to such a shortage of the supply, and whether there are more actions needed beyond merely going down to lower and lower decimal places might be a question of conjecture.. because surely satoshis could end up getting divided into 8 digits or even an infinite number of digits -

to quote a famous government/banking official.  


There are an infinite number of digits within a satoshi... problem solved, no?

You will (or you should) thank me later, once you go back and study your maths and your sciences.

Also Protip: make sure to guard your cornz because they are going to be worth more and more and more, and even more than you previously thought that they were going to be worth between 2014 and 2019 when you were whimpily stacking them (or failing/refusing to stack them - relatively speaking) ...  

I consider myself open minded and always try to look at both sides of the argument. I spent most the day trying to agree with you, Biodom, and find reasons that may support your theory of the evaporation of all Bitcoins within 50 or so years.

I tried to imagine different scenarios of how this could play out, how we could lose 250k+ bitcoin every single year. Maybe all the heads of Binance takes a deep sea dive to look at the Mariana Trench and something catastrophic happens, without leaving their privkey behind. Maybe the Gemini Twins goes climbing Everest and don’t make it back down.

Maybe a hidden malware/bug in the Trezor hardware wallet locks all Trezor out after a certain date. Rendering all Trezor wallets inaccessible. Maybe Saylor decides to take control of his own keys and sends to an incorrect address.

Then I started to think, why am I talking about just these big names with big wallets?  Am I just looking for scenarios to fit the narrative…

Then it clicked to me…. The one thing you have forgotten to take into consideration, the one most import aspect.

VALUE!

I doubt that much of any of these disappearing bitcoin's was my theory - except I was more or less willing to play along with Biodom's theory - so long as we were talking about a percentage disappearing every year.. maybe 1% to 5%.. or whatever, and then I was suggesting that the supply would never disappear if it were merely a percentage shrinkage because "we have an infinite amount of digits in the satoshi."

Another thing is that I did not even flesh out any aspect of HODLers paying more attention to their coins due to increased value - even though maybe there might not be any exact incentive to clarify the inheritance matter - since people do not really seem to engage in great inheritance planning - even when they clearly have descendants/beneficiaries.. and then also there are risks in revealing aspects of your security and your keys to living people even if you wuv dem very muchie.

You’re looking at past historical numbers to derive an average of what you perceive to be a norm moving forward. However, you haven’t taken VALUE into consideration.

I did not account for it, because I saw that you had accounted for it earlier.. and also I did not account for it, because I was not really getting into the arguments in some kinds of thinking that what Biodom was arguing was not very well founded.. and seeming to fail to account for the fact that "we have an infinite amount of digits in the satoshi."

Losing 100k Bitcoins ($425K) in 2011 is different to losing 100k bitcoin ($3B) in 2023 and 100k Bitcoins in 2040 (~$35B). Market participants and adoption rates were different, the appreciation and valuation of Bitcoin was lower, hence minimal security and blasé in handling/storing and transmitting Bitcoin was all too common. How many times have we read about the guy who threw away a computer holding 8,000 Bitcoins or similar stories early on…

I am not saying access to bitcoins will never be lost. There always going to be errors made in handling/storing and transmitting Bitcoin, but with the VALUE of bitcoin appreciating everyday and more and more participants enter, better education, easier access, different custody options. You will not see the same number of losses we have seen in the past. The VALUE of the losses may well be same, year on year, but the amount of Bitcoin will not! Hence there will never be an evaporation of ALL Bitcoins.

I doubt that the value theory completely protects you from losses of coins based on a variety of reasons.. but it does also cause the losses per year to more likely be a small percentage of the total supply rather than some kind of an absolute number, even if the percentage could end up having some variance each year, such as between 1% to 5% even when the BTC prices are presumably continuing to go up and even when the value of a lot of currently inefficiently monetized things end up going into bitcoin, and maybe even presuming that we might get some better systems for clarifying how to cause inheritance without our necessarily needing to give up our private keys (or opsec) prior to death.

Bitcoin Moving forward at a great speed. Last 2/3 days Bitcoin moving excellently. Near about 13% pumped already. I think now we are in bull market. After Long time Bitcoin price increasing continuously. I Think bear market is passed. Huge positive news coming continuously so bitcoin is pumping. Today i found out a good news i think it will creat positive impact on cryptocurrency market. Brazil’s largest Bank ITAU is joining National Association to Defend Bitcoin and crypto. I think for this positive news crypto market will pump. I wish in future more good news will come for crypto and bitcoin price will more high.

Fuck crypto.

[1714594594]

1714594594

[1714594594]

1714594594

[1714594594]

1714594594

[philipma1957]

...big ass snip ...

Bitcoin Moving forward at a great speed. Last 2/3 days Bitcoin moving excellently. Near about 13% pumped already. I think now we are in bull market. After Long time Bitcoin price increasing continuously. I Think bear market is passed. Huge positive news coming continuously so bitcoin is pumping. Today i found out a good news i think it will creat positive impact on cryptocurrency market. Brazil’s largest Bank ITAU is joining National Association to Defend Bitcoin and crypto. I think for this positive news crypto market will pump. I wish in future more good news will come for crypto and bitcoin price will more high.

Fuck crypto.

Fuck crypto means fuck all coins including btc

"fuck shitcoins"  is a  better term


JJG while you are a very clever bot reinventing language is not a good way to go.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Additionally, I was struck by the fact that P. Wuille felt that it was important to institute BIP-42, even though, Satoshi's "omission" would not come to play until year 2265, yet, the large apparent loss of bitcoin and, especially, a complete lack of knowledge as to what the current rate of the loss is, did not elicit any response so far.

Btw, this is all long term stuff, we all would probably be gone when it comes to play, totally irrelevant to the current vigorous bull market.
I just thought that, intellectually, it is an interesting area to talk about, but I am pretty much done talking about it.
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.

It's not just long term stuff that does not matter.  If there was a known reissuance of the block reward starting in around 2265 (that could not be fixed - like it was with BIP-42, that bug may well have had affected current price speculations - especially since it is so inconsistent with the current long term bitcoin trajectory of decreasing issuance and even seeming to devolve into negative issuance (due to ongoing loses), as you have already described.

Within two days $35000

mmh somehow I feel you are not very confident with your predictions.  

50k end of June.

Could it be that you are making bullish comments to gain merits?

if you are confident about your predictions, would you be willing to put your money (BTC) where your mouth is?

Would you bet on your "50k end of June" prediction ?

Here we go again... escrow anyone?  

We can already see that there is almost no way that _Hiloveua_ is going to agree to any kind of a bet on the topic, even a symbolic bet.. .. and Gachapin already pointed out that it is not likely that _Hiloveua_ has any conviction about his end of the month numbers.. beyond, perhaps at most, wishening such end of the month numbers to come true... perhaps so he can sell his whole stash, I mean his 0.02063971 BTC

...big ass snip ...

Bitcoin Moving forward at a great speed. Last 2/3 days Bitcoin moving excellently. Near about 13% pumped already. I think now we are in bull market. After Long time Bitcoin price increasing continuously. I Think bear market is passed. Huge positive news coming continuously so bitcoin is pumping. Today i found out a good news i think it will creat positive impact on cryptocurrency market. Brazil’s largest Bank ITAU is joining National Association to Defend Bitcoin and crypto. I think for this positive news crypto market will pump. I wish in future more good news will come for crypto and bitcoin price will more high.

Fuck crypto.

Fuck crypto means fuck all coins including btc

"fuck shitcoins"  is a  better term

JJG while you are a very clever bot reinventing language is not a good way to go.

Oh gawd..  

Leave it to you to want to devolve any kind of potential meaningful conversation into nonsense.. .. Do you have any Ibonds that you want to promote?  Are you still mining doggie coin and Litecoin with the belief that they have good chances of taking over BTC "some day"? #Askingforafriend.  

How's that sale of BTC below $20k going?  have you been able to buy those cornz back yet at supra $20k prices? since it's been a while since we have seen sub $20k BTC prices...

We might not even see sub $20k BTC prices ever again... just letting uie pooie knowie, in case you had not realized that angle (and power) of king daddy.  

[sirazimuth]

heat is a bitch although NJ,USA  has been good so far this year.

NJ? Gotta say, I'd probably be shopping around for cheaper kWH.

we are solar hybrid and have very good power rates

I bet not as good as Texas.


Albeit, one must make sure one is covered for freak cold snaps.
and one's senator buggers off to Cancun.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is far from the bubble of any sort, but I am turning cautious on the rest of the market:

1. Speculative names had peaked, witnessed by ARKK showing a nice summit.
2. SC will render a decision on student loans on Tue. If they reject student loan forgiveness (as most expect), then the logical direction is down for a bit.
3. Fed reserve would not "like" to have a continuation of the bull into rising rates (which they will probably do in July). I expect a small bump in some inflation number, which would give them the "go ahead" signal for 0.25 or maybe even 0.5 ("one and done"). BOE went for a 0.5% increase recently.

Haven't decided if i want to actively "play" these developments or just stay put.

They all sound good.  But this cat is not a player.. good luck if you want to take positions that may or may not end up panning out.. and surely, I agree with your observation that a decently good chance bitcoin pump (or failure to dump) in the midst of ongoing rising interest rates... must be not very comfortable.. unless they are actually realizing that bitcoin could end up being a kind of savior for them, if they were to start stacking (perhaps covertly?).

Sure feels like we’re back to up only. With leveraged funds entering the mix now I expect a ton of volatility and there are lots of investors who will have reason to pump Bitcoin now. I wish we’d seen a spot ETF first and things like this a year from now, so we’ll have to see how it goes. It seems early for the market to be pumping BTC into a bubble.

I don't think this is the real "up only" bull market pump.  This is probably a usual intermediary cycle pump with afterwards corrections.

We will probably stay around 25k-35k levels (with some wicks) for the next 1 - 1.5 years 1-4.25 months.

FTFY... you will thank me later.   

Please re-launch that chopper @vroom

what do you think about this version of the chopper until we reach a new ath?



edit: please note the incredible small file size, only 67kb

Wow!!!  What an imagination!! 

I like it.. except personally, I think that directionally, it should be winding out, rather than winding in..

........
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.

Agreed!.. Lets enjoy the spoils!

While this run off the bottom has indeed been impressive, I'm not yet counting my eggs.  It feels like the newcomers in the market don't really understand the problems that Bitcoin faces and are instead looking to pump themselves to riches and bonuses.  This will ultimately lead to the failure of Bitcoin.  However, that is a long ways from where we are currently, so for now all you can really do is enjoy the ride and wait until a proper exit point when BTC has reached new all time highs.  That's when I'll enjoy the spoils.  Right now we are still less than half of the way to the recent high, so I'm not excited yet.  I'll start becoming excited when we pass $50K and the FOMO begins anew.

Wow!!  All these years in bitcoin OgNasty and you still neither seem to understand it, and you seem to be spending quite a bit of energies valuing your wealth in the dollars that you are planning to cash out.. ..

Hopefully, for yourself, you don't cash out too many of dee cornz too soon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Out of mind]

The number of wallets with One Bitcoin or more has reached One Million.

Let’s assume those all belong to different individuals.
(They don’t)

(1M Wallets/8B People)*100 =
0.0125% of the population

You might not have one Bitcoin but neither does 99.9875% of the world.

We are so fucking early.
Keep stacking.
https://twitter.com/Boomstick44/status/1671841765559615488?t=ZL4JJP1nEgNojZsZgGwkpg&s=19

[d_eddie]

I don't think this is the real "up only" bull market pump.  This is probably a usual intermediary cycle pump with afterwards corrections.

We will probably stay around 25k-35k levels (with some wicks) for the next 1 - 1.5 years 1-4.25 months.

FTFY... you will thank me later.   

They will escrow this for you... ^^

I Know I'm a Newbie and I probably don't understand, but... I has been checking all the charts including my Calendar...
And I's almost certain, 99.9%, we're following the 2023 pattern!!! Bank on it!

well if that is the case how about 103 in 23?

... if you escrow this for them ^^




Incidentally, this is a good call IMO:

Please re-launch that chopper @vroom

what do you think about this version of the chopper until we reach a new ath?

I like it.. except personally, I think that directionally, it should be winding out, rather than winding in..

[hisslyness]

I doubt that much of any of these disappearing bitcoin's was my theory....

That reply was directed at Biodom, I just included your post for reference.

I think you and I are on the same page with this one...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

........
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.

Agreed!.. Lets enjoy the spoils!

While this run off the bottom has indeed been impressive, I'm not yet counting my eggs.  It feels like the newcomers in the market don't really understand the problems that Bitcoin faces and are instead looking to pump themselves to riches and bonuses.  This will ultimately lead to the failure of Bitcoin.  However, that is a long ways from where we are currently, so for now all you can really do is enjoy the ride and wait until a proper exit point when BTC has reached new all time highs.  That's when I'll enjoy the spoils.  Right now we are still less than half of the way to the recent high, so I'm not excited yet.  I'll start becoming excited when we pass $50K and the FOMO begins anew.

"Lets enjoy the spoils" doesn't necessarily mean selling Bitcoin right now and buying a lambo!... Some of the spoils could be satisfactions knowing your DCA's are in the green. Your #BTFD moving ahead in the right direction. Your spoil doesn't have to have a physical attribute, it could be, mentally your in a stronger position....

Besides..., I believe we were using that as a way to mutually and respectfully end a conversion. Without throwing around a FUCK YOU like some people have here in the past!

[SamReomo]

If we closely view the current condition of the market then there is a chance of another dip around $28k, but expecting $35k is also a nice dream for many of the Bitcoin investors. Let's see what's going to take place in the market in coming days. I hope the condition gets better and Bitcoin gets another pump to the price range of $35k.

[Paashaas]

Interesting developments going on. This isn't just infighting, Wagner boss Prigozhin knows the situation in Ukraine is dire for Russia. There must be support inside the Kremlin for a move like this beacause they are fed up from Putin's fruitless policies that dragged the country into a huge mess. Moscow is implementing the Fortress plan, police and military units are summoned that deals with a coup attempt from Wagner group.


https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1672443335225507840

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Interesting developments going on. This isn't just infighting, Wagner boss Prigozhin knows the situation in Ukraine is dire for Russia. There must be support inside the Kremlin for a move like this beacause they are fed up from Putin's fruitless policies that dragged the country into a huge mess. Moscow is implementing the Fortress plan, police and military units are summoned that deals with a coup attempt from Wagner group.


https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1672443335225507840

So I will wakeup and putin will be overthrown in the morning?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-tanks-moscow-amid-fears-30311462

[Out of mind]

As expected, #Bitcoin is exploding upwards after retesting the Moving Average Ribbons as support

When this happens, well... you can see what comes next

Data is pointing to a strong bull run on the brink and the best is yet to come

I have to repeat, this is only the beginning
https://twitter.com/CryptoCon_/status/1671867280232263681?t=64Y7qUg8pziJL5PWRJcjGA&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com