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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368884 times)
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July 23, 2023, 08:23:03 PM
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At JJG BTW  I have 4x BTC compared to the iBonds. I am fine with that.

You still put your yearly max into it $10k per person or whatever it was (is) into Ibonds, and worse yet, you were pumping that bullshit here... as if bitcoiners (newbies or otherwise) needed to have exposure a kind of dollar with "assured yield" - in spite of the bullshit that we knew about
1) the ongoing dollar printing,
2) the likely desperate status of the USA government/treasuries to lure more money into their shit products and
3) the fact that the BTC prices was then 15% to 35% below the 200-week moving depending at which points during those several months that you were pumping such bad advices for dollar exposure and dollar yields.

Another thing regarding your own personal feelings of need to have liquidity in dollars and stability likely due to your age, perhaps because you are already getting BTC income (regular cashflows) and also perhaps due to several of your earlier mistakes from 2012 to 2022 (and maybe even ongoing mistakes that are quite difficult to enumerate?  hahahahahaha) in terms your own failures to make emotionally neutral (rather than nostradamus wannabe) allocations to bitcoin, you may have contributed to some of your own desires to have higher exposures to the dollar than what would likely have had been a good balance for the vast majority of younger people who do not have similar situations as you and who likely need to be making sure that they are allocating value to (and getting a stake in / exposure to) bitcoin rather than questionable tricky (locked in) dollar yielding products..

...and some people/normies/newbies do not have a lot of extra discretionary value to be able to invest into bitcoin and so if they end up putting $10k into crappy dollar products for the year, then they end up diluting their bitcoin investment/allocation right when they probably should have had been attempting to be aggressive towards bitcoin.. or if not aggressive, at least not whimpy in terms of their bitcoin allocation and getting/maintaining and/or not losing a stake in bitcoin.  

I am not really wanting to suggest that it is good for newbies to necessarily bounce around between being aggressive, neutral and whimpy in terms of their approach to bitcoin.. because DCA tends to be a better strategy for many normie newbies (and you don't even need to be a normie newbie), and then the longer that s/he is into bitcoin, s/he can tailor his/her level of aggressiveness (or whimpiness) in accordance to his/her own personal particulars that may well not necessarily be very much tied to trying to figure out which way the BTC price might go in the short term but to attempt to be prepared for various BTC price directions that may well include supplementing the more beginner DCA strategies with buying on dips (rather than dumb shit like selling BTC when the BTC price had already corrected a lot (which seemed to have been what you did Philip and what you were recommending others to do) and is significantly below the 200-week moving average and expecting to buy BTC back cheaper.. which may or may not end up happening when the BTC price had already been quite low).

If I have 3 coins stacking
a mining farm
Some silver stacking
A home
a 401k
with 3 pensions which My wife and I do we are diversified not a big issue.

To talk about it not a big deal
To mention it on this thread not a big deal.

If I could I would sell the 3 pensions as they are all fed gov and I no longer trust the fed gov. but USA fed pensions are not allowed to sell.

Yes.. those pensions show that you are already overly-weighted into products that are dependent (if not overly dependent) upon the dollar... and for sure, I am not necessarily telling you to make any changes you old fart.  

But making recommendations for others to get or become dollar dependent merely because you are and you are inclined to continue to pump bullshit dollar products such as the IBond, when you are already considerably dollar dependent in your own personal situation, seems a bit strange, but whatever, you have to make your own balances for yourself, even though it does not make any sense to be suggesting that others put themselves into a similar kind of dollar dependency as you seem to be enjoying (or suffering through).. even though sure, maybe you do own some bitcoin too... and maybe your allocations in bitcoin are enough for your own situation?  perhaps? perhaps?

These kinds of allocation questions or even reallocation or tweaking questions are not easy questions for anyone to figure out various points that they might want to shift around their allocations, or even to attempt to start to weigh their allocations more in one direction or another, and even if you have various incomes, some of those incomes can be going into bitcoin or staying in bitcoin rather than staying into dollar related products. .and it is never really easy to figure out how much to let winners ride, to make lump sum changes, or to make incremental changes, even though personally I tend to weigh towards incrementalism that could take a while to rebalance depending on how much I am wanting to rebalance and in which direction..

..and surely it seems that if you do not have enough bitcoin, then you would DCA, as you seem to say that you are doing on a regular basis (whether it is enough bitcoin for you, that is for you to determine).. and buying on dips is also a good thing, and that seems to be the part that you are wanting to gloss over that you had been selling on dips rather than buying on dips, even though you can call them gambling plays that you were making in mid-to-late 2022 whatever you like.  

In 2021, and even early 2022, you had been all hot and bothered about how wonderful BTC was and you were buying like a mad man (or at least saying that you were buying between $30k and $50k), but then when the BTC price dropped below $20k, then you said that you were selling BTC in order to buy back cheaper.. so whatever, it is great that you have your ways of dealing with matters, but still seem to be quite far off from what would have had been better practices, which would have been to either keep buying BTC when the price went down or to just hold off buying BTC if you were running out of cash and wait and buy BTC upon further dips, if you were to have (or come across) any cash left to buy during those then dippening times.

In the end, some of us make various mistakes, and probably I am on your case more because you share ideas that sometimes spout out too much nonsense that links bitcoin to macrofactors or some other somewhat lame theories, so sure share them all that you like.. .and you are going to get back lash if it seems that you are pumping shitcoins and bad ideas, and I am not at any kind of point to claim that you are a troll or that you are being disingenuine.. but we can never completely know on the internet.. .

. and even though from my perspective, you pump a decent number of shitty ideas and shitcoins from time to time, you do tend to provide a decent amount of seemingly good world experience information too, so it is hard to proclaim that you don't personally believe some of the nonsense that you spout, and it is also within the realm of believability since I do sometimes come across people in the real world that have some of that same level of not so great ideas.. so maybe we can sort some of these matters out in this thread and in these here parts.. . to the extent that you are even making any sense for someone who has been in bitcoin for around 12 years by your own admission, and I am a kind of newbie, and barely coming upon a decade with dee cornz myself... but many of us have other world experiences too..  that we might bring to the table that help to shed light on some of the financial management decisions that any of us might make, including considering how bitcoin might fit within our own lives and/or how much our own circumstances might be relatable to others who read and participate in this thread..at least in terms of bitcoin accumulation, then maintenance and then liquidation and sometimes some combinations that might relate to how we believe the price/walls to be moving.
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July 23, 2023, 08:59:11 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Any OG who are like @philipma1957 are incredibly advanced for boomers.
Apart from a few boomers posting here...only 4-6% of people after 64-65 are into bitcoin (I read it somewhere-no source).
I am fine with his diworsification, albeit, disagree that litecoin tech is superior in any sense. Litecoin is a derivative, a copycat..silver to gold, so to speak.

Changing the whole 401K into bitcoin would have been incredible if done 10-11 years ago. I converted only 10% or so of my fiat resources into btc a while back.
Would it been better if I allocated 30-50%..sure it would be, but as Michael Saylor said: "I could have bought bitcoin at $100 when I [MS] first noticed it, but I bought it at $10000, when I needed it". Everyone pretty much buys it when they "need" it, either physically or intellectually.

I also understand the @JJG point about buying (or not buying i-bonds). There were other, much simpler ways to get interest last year, like money market funds, which are liquid, while i-bonds are not.

I think @philipma1957 is diversified (from what I gathered). Yes, maybe buying i-bonds when btc was at the lows of around $16K was ill-advised, but everyone only know it by now, not back then. Besides, Phil is doing the "work" for many of us (including myself) who is not currently mining, but verbalize about bitcoin.

@philipma1957-what is the Th value/power of your mine, if calculated back to just yourself?
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July 23, 2023, 09:01:22 PM


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July 23, 2023, 09:06:16 PM



because it is a zombie
not a live person as musk.
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July 23, 2023, 09:15:54 PM
Last edit: July 23, 2023, 10:40:48 PM by Biodom

Do you remember "Mr. Robot" show and the "E corp" from there?
Reality follows sci-fi in strange ways:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-says-twitter-change-logo-adieu-all-birds-2023-07-23/

Quote
Under Musk's tumultuous tenure since he bought Twitter in October, the company has changed its business name to X Corp, reflecting the billionaire's vision to create a "super app" like China's WeChat.

Get a whiff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ee-cHbCI0s

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July 23, 2023, 09:21:48 PM

That's a fair point.
~
Today the 200-week moving average is right around $27k, so if we double it every 4 years then we would get.

2028 = $54k
...

2056 = $6,912k

In that scenario 0.0244 BTC would be worth around $168,653 ($6,912k * 0.244), so that number would be in the ballpark of $187k but that would not account for the likelihood that $187k would not be worth even close to that amount.. ..   Too complicated to resolve all of the accounting presumptions that would be needed to be made?
I added with you new year just 2026 = $216k.

I'm not an expert in all these things but my guess is that the target will exceed $200k in the next 4 years, I don't really know how it will happen, but if the past growth is 3-4x price growth then it will definitely exceed the target of $200k.

I may have done a little bit of a Freudian slip, since I was trying to start out with the 200-week moving average and starting from today, so each of the years would have been 1 year less.. since I accidentally gave 5 years to the first bump.

The 200-week moving average should largely be considered as a bottom indicator rather than a descriptions of various possible tops... and since it is averaging out trade prices and even volume for four years, it does not tend to move very fast, and right now, it is going up about $14 per day... but surely as it gets bigger, it is likely to continue to build and compound upon itself, that is if bitcoin keeps growing in a similar kind of direction and in a similar kind of way as it had grown in the beginning..

and sure there is also a bit of an attempt to bring stability to the amount of the BTC price move for each of the four years by suggesting that the BTC price would double every 4 years, even though so far in BTC's history, it has come close to doubling every year, if we measure from the beginning when it first developed a price, but I have my doubts about whether the first few years in bitcoin can be used as very accurate starting points, since the BTC price was so early in its adoption that it barely had any price and there was limited abilities for price discovery through only a few exchanges, so maybe we have to start out in 2012 or 2013, if we are trying to be somewhat fair regarding making assessments of bitcoin's expected (or would it be hoped for?) price trajectory.

I also understand the @JJG point about buying (or not buying i-bonds). There are/were other, much simpler ways to get interest last year, like money market funds, which are liquid, while i-bonds are not.

I think @philipma1957 is diversified (from what I gathered). Yes, maybe buying i-bonds when btc was at the lows of around $16K was ill-advised, but everyone only know it by now, not back then.

I am not so much against Ibonds as I might be making it seem - however, it seems a bit irritating to suggest that money might either be taken out of bitcoin or diverted into that kind of a product, and surely there are degrees in regards to any mistake.

If we have fresh cash coming in, then there seems to be fewer mistakes to divide such cash up into various pots.. such as having an extra $100 to $500 per week coming in or maybe the amount is higher or maybe the amount is lower, and so there are likely BIGGER and objectively confirmable difficulties in terms of dividing up the investment amount when the amounts are really low.  It is easier to divide up $1,000 per week as compared with dividing up $10 per week.....  and sometimes we are going to realize (probably at a much later date) that maybe we made some mistakes in regards to how we allocated that new cash that was coming in.

If somewhere in May or June there is a realization that either $5k per year or $10k per year can be spent on IBonds, and if there is a desire to max out the Ibonds, then there could be a bit of an urgency in terms of how to come up with that much money in order to get the money in before the end of the year....and yeah maybe it becomes even more urgent if there is a discovery/realization in September or October because then there are ONLY a couple/few months left in the year.   So BIGGER mistakes could be made when reallocating in lump sums or even rushing into the matter and scrambling to figure out what assets might be more liquid than others in order to come up with the cash to be able to buy some of that crap that you then believe is such a "great deal."

Surely, each of us might weigh the level of the mistake to be BIGGER if we might see that money had been diverted from BTC and into some shitty products - especially given BTC's price correction level during most of the later half of 2022. 

There are plenty of times that I have conceded that it is not as bad to buy shitty products or even shitcoins, as long as the money is not coming out of BTC funds, so if the money is coming from new money then it might not be AS BIG of a deal, even though in the end, many of us realize that even new money "could have had gone into bitcoin" but if some of us already have a lot of bitcoin, and we even proclaim to have "more than enough" bitcoin, then I can hardly frown upon people who diversify into other assets (even shitty assets) if they have already come to a reasonable assessment that they have "enough" or even "more than enough" bitcoin... and each person will vary in terms of whether s/he feels that s/he has to keep reallocating back within a range, such as keeping the bitcoin allocation between 10% and 20% of the value of all of the assets, or some other way of justifying why selling of BTC is taking place when it might not be a very good long term decision to be selling BTC at certain times and reallocating into other assets, even if those other assets appear to be "short-term" promising.
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July 23, 2023, 10:13:09 PM
Last edit: July 23, 2023, 10:46:50 PM by Biodom

Of note: $100K/year salary (used to be considered quite good) in US currently qualifies you to get a mortgage for a small (600-700 sqft) condo in Orange County, CA and New York, NY OR a run down house in Houston TX.

Interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S_Up-JnXqo

Bitcoin to the rescue...
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July 23, 2023, 10:23:57 PM
Last edit: July 23, 2023, 10:39:55 PM by eXPHorizon

Do you remember "Mr. Robot" show and the "E corp" from there?
Reality follows sc-fi in strange ways:




E Corp (Evil Corp which its Real Name will remain Annon for the time being) is a real company IRL and uses E-Coin (Bljatcoin) And is its creator. Rose is just sailing on a Billion $ Ship loaded with tech. 😉


Little Minion , Mr. Robot is much more than you think.




https://youtube.com/watch?v=gQuac7eIbD8&feature=share9

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July 23, 2023, 10:34:32 PM

Future AI
Will Be..
Paid in Bitcoin!!!

https://youtu.be/nm9t2Mv47nM



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July 24, 2023, 12:29:46 AM

Yes BTC Return to 30k done
Green candle means bull market...

BTC green candle stands like a street lamppost.
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July 24, 2023, 01:07:30 AM

It's never too late to learn about #Bitcoin   ! 🚀 Here's a simple way to explain Bitcoin to your grandparents. 




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